London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Jul 16, 2026

Covid: Epidemic growing across England, says study

Covid: Epidemic growing across England, says study

The Covid-19 epidemic in England is growing, scientists tracking it say - with much of it being driven by younger people who are not yet vaccinated.

The analysis, from the React-1 study, looked at the period 20 May to 7 June.

However, tentative signs in the latest daily data suggest growth may be beginning to slow.

The rollout of vaccinations to younger people is key to reducing further spread, researchers from Imperial College London say.

Since last year, the team has been inviting a representative sample of the population to take Covid swab tests. The researchers found:

*  of the 108,911 people tested, 135 were positive - a rise from 0.1% to 0.15%

*  most cases were among five- to 12-year-olds and 18- to 24-year-olds

*  the reproduction (R) number, of people the average infected person would infect, was an estimated 1.44

The analysis also suggests a strengthening link between cases and hospital admissions, which is also reflected in the government's daily coronavirus data.

The number of new infections is rising, with a seven-day average of 8,404 cases. The UK recorded 11,007 cases on Thursday - the highest number since 12,027 were reported on 19 February.


The number of hospitalisations has also increased, with 1,177 patients in hospital as of Monday. However, daily deaths remain low, with a weekly average of nine deaths within 28 days of a positive test.

A further 19 deaths were reported on Thursday.

Prof Paul Elliot, who directs the study, said: "We can take quite a lot of comfort from the fact that when we look in the details, it does appear that there is very, very good protection in the older ages, where there is virtually everyone double vaccinated.

"The government has clearly announced that they want to vaccinate all adults in the period between now and 19 July. That will make a very big difference and increase the total amount of population immunity."

He told BBC News that the study had found the Delta variant first seen in India had overtaken the Alpha (Kent) variant as the UK's dominant strain, and was responsible for an estimated 90% of infections.

England's chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty said Covid-19 had "not thrown its last surprise at us", warning that he is anticipating case rates will continue to rise over the next few weeks due to the Delta variant being "significantly more transmissible" than the Alpha variant.

He told the NHS Confed Conference he expected a "further winter surge" and said he thought new variants may well lead to booster jabs or revaccination being required over the next two to three years.

Daily data and positive signs?

The picture presented by React is one from 10 days ago. But if we look at the daily figures published by the government, there are some encouraging signs, albeit very tentative.

Last week, cases appeared to be doubling every 10 days, but this week that has slowed to something closer to 14 days.

It still means the epidemic is growing - but it is the first sign of a flattening of cases.

This, of course, could be a false dawn. The rise in infections has largely been driven by north-west England- the top 20 local-authority areas with the highest rates are all in that region.

Infections could easily take off in other areas, speeding up the growth of this wave.

But if this slowing of growth holds, it is very positive.

Government scientists had feared rapid growth right up to 19 July.

This would drive up hospital admissions, albeit, because of the vaccines, at a lower rate than in previous waves.

It is still early days, but data is now a little more encouraging than it was.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson cited the Delta variant's rapid spread when he announced a four-week delay to the lifting of remaining Covid restrictions in England

The government has accelerated its vaccination drive, setting a new target to vaccinate all over-18s with a first dose and two-thirds of adults with a second dose by the same date.

Everyone aged 18 and over in England will be able to book their Covid-19 vaccine from Friday, Health Secretary Matt Hancock announced at the NHS conference.

He said a first dose had now been given to four out of five adults (80.1%).

As of Wednesday more than 30 million people - 58.2% of adults - have had both doses.

New figures published by the Office for National Statistics on Thursday suggest people who test positive for Covid after being vaccinated are less likely to show symptoms and have less of the virus in their body.

The ONS analysis swabbed people at random and picked up asymptomatic infections as well as cases that show up in the daily case numbers.

It showed that the risk of getting infected was highest in the first three weeks after vaccination and fell after a second vaccination. Just under 40% of people who did get infected after vaccination showed symptoms.

There have been about 16,000 suspected cases of coronavirus reinfection detected in England, out of nearly four million cases, according to Public Health England data, although only 53 have been confirmed.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
French National Assembly Overrides Senate to Pass Historic Assisted-Dying Legislation
Spanish Prime Minister's Wife Ordered to Stand Trial as Corruption Probes Encircle Governing Party
Zelensky Faces Kyiv Protests Over Ousting of Dynamic Ukrainian Defense Minister
Colombia Influencer Dies After Cosmetic Procedure at Unlicensed Bogota Salon
Thomas Tuchel Faces Fierce Backlash After Tactical Retreat Costs England World Cup Final Berth
A Quiet Bastille Day: France Grapples with World Cup Heartbreak and Leftover Fireworks
Canadian Wildfire Crisis Triggers Transnational Air Quality Alerts Ahead of Soccer Finale
UK Housing Reform Debate Intensifies Over Tenant Protection Measures
UK Defence Official Challenges Russian Narrative on NATO Readiness and European Security
UK Names Independent Member to Judicial Pension Board to Strengthen Oversight
UK Parliamentary Committee Sets New Framework for Select Committee Leadership Roles
UK Government Pushes Energy Savings Through School Solar Expansion Plan
UK Committee Reviews Future of Gaelic Broadcasting and Language Support
UK Government Expands Industrial Skills Support in Wales as Steel Sector Faces Change
UK Rejects Russian Claims That European Defence Spending Is Aggressive
UK Schools and Gaelic Broadcasting Among Areas Reviewed in New Parliamentary Inquiries
UK Housing Committee Calls for Stronger Tenant Protections Under Rental Reform Plans
UK Government Faces Pressure for Stronger Oversight After South East Water Failings Report
UK Parliament Opens Inquiry Into Safety of Women and Girls on Public Transport
UK Defence Ministry Appoints Interim Chief Defence Medical Officer During Transition Period
UK Government Announces Five Million Pound Skills Programme for Young People in Port Talbot
UK Government Launches Solar Programme to Cut Energy Costs for Schools
Met Office Warns Extreme Weather Is Becoming More Common Across the UK
UK Government Faces Internal Debate Over New Chancellor Appointment Under Andy Burnham
Andy Burnham Set to Become UK Prime Minister After Keir Starmer’s Resignation
UK Economy Grows Slightly in May as Supply Chain Disruptions Continue to Weigh on Industry
British Steel Moves Into UK Public Ownership to Protect Domestic Steel Production and Jobs
Spain in Ecstasy: "We Feel Unbeatable, We Taught the Whole World a Lesson"
Spain and UK Dismantle Gibraltar Border Following Landmark Schengen Integration Treaty
Church of England Rejects Plan to Rewild Thirty Percent of Land by 2030
UK Parliament Examines Future of Gaelic Broadcasting in Scotland
Thames Water Faces Criticism Over Four Million Pounds in Bonus Payments
South East Water Crisis Puts UK Water Regulation Under Renewed Scrutiny
UK Report Highlights Racial Inequality in Homelessness Support Services
UK Government Defends Proposed Social Media Curfew for Teenagers Despite Criticism
Reform UK Gains Recognition as Major Political Party in New Polling
Labour Party Faces Internal Divisions Over Gaza Policy and Asylum Reform
Experts Warn UK Housing and Transport Infrastructure Is Unprepared for Rising Extreme Heat
UK Human Rights Committee Begins Review of Immigration and Asylum Bill
UK Parliament Launches Inquiry Into Declining High Streets Across England
Bank of England Governor Warns of Growing AI Risks to Global Financial Security
UK Public Finance Institutions Mobilize Fifty Billion Pounds to Support Growth and Jobs
UK Parliament Opens Inquiry Into Long-Term Strategy Toward Russia
UK-India Trade Agreement Takes Effect With Zero-Duty Access for Nearly All Indian Exports
Forget Tinder: The Surprising Platform Where People Find Love
UK Government Faces Growing Debate Over Local Control of Immigration Enforcement
UK Biodiversity Forum Highlights Business Need to Protect Natural Environment
UK Parliament to Consider Workplace Temperature Limits Amid Climate Concerns
UK Parliament Considers Independent Immigration Appeals Authority Proposal
BBC Charter Renewal Scrutiny Intensifies as Parliament Reviews Broadcaster’s Future
×