London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Jan 07, 2026

Covid: Epidemic growing across England, says study

Covid: Epidemic growing across England, says study

The Covid-19 epidemic in England is growing, scientists tracking it say - with much of it being driven by younger people who are not yet vaccinated.

The analysis, from the React-1 study, looked at the period 20 May to 7 June.

However, tentative signs in the latest daily data suggest growth may be beginning to slow.

The rollout of vaccinations to younger people is key to reducing further spread, researchers from Imperial College London say.

Since last year, the team has been inviting a representative sample of the population to take Covid swab tests. The researchers found:

*  of the 108,911 people tested, 135 were positive - a rise from 0.1% to 0.15%

*  most cases were among five- to 12-year-olds and 18- to 24-year-olds

*  the reproduction (R) number, of people the average infected person would infect, was an estimated 1.44

The analysis also suggests a strengthening link between cases and hospital admissions, which is also reflected in the government's daily coronavirus data.

The number of new infections is rising, with a seven-day average of 8,404 cases. The UK recorded 11,007 cases on Thursday - the highest number since 12,027 were reported on 19 February.


The number of hospitalisations has also increased, with 1,177 patients in hospital as of Monday. However, daily deaths remain low, with a weekly average of nine deaths within 28 days of a positive test.

A further 19 deaths were reported on Thursday.

Prof Paul Elliot, who directs the study, said: "We can take quite a lot of comfort from the fact that when we look in the details, it does appear that there is very, very good protection in the older ages, where there is virtually everyone double vaccinated.

"The government has clearly announced that they want to vaccinate all adults in the period between now and 19 July. That will make a very big difference and increase the total amount of population immunity."

He told BBC News that the study had found the Delta variant first seen in India had overtaken the Alpha (Kent) variant as the UK's dominant strain, and was responsible for an estimated 90% of infections.

England's chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty said Covid-19 had "not thrown its last surprise at us", warning that he is anticipating case rates will continue to rise over the next few weeks due to the Delta variant being "significantly more transmissible" than the Alpha variant.

He told the NHS Confed Conference he expected a "further winter surge" and said he thought new variants may well lead to booster jabs or revaccination being required over the next two to three years.

Daily data and positive signs?

The picture presented by React is one from 10 days ago. But if we look at the daily figures published by the government, there are some encouraging signs, albeit very tentative.

Last week, cases appeared to be doubling every 10 days, but this week that has slowed to something closer to 14 days.

It still means the epidemic is growing - but it is the first sign of a flattening of cases.

This, of course, could be a false dawn. The rise in infections has largely been driven by north-west England- the top 20 local-authority areas with the highest rates are all in that region.

Infections could easily take off in other areas, speeding up the growth of this wave.

But if this slowing of growth holds, it is very positive.

Government scientists had feared rapid growth right up to 19 July.

This would drive up hospital admissions, albeit, because of the vaccines, at a lower rate than in previous waves.

It is still early days, but data is now a little more encouraging than it was.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson cited the Delta variant's rapid spread when he announced a four-week delay to the lifting of remaining Covid restrictions in England

The government has accelerated its vaccination drive, setting a new target to vaccinate all over-18s with a first dose and two-thirds of adults with a second dose by the same date.

Everyone aged 18 and over in England will be able to book their Covid-19 vaccine from Friday, Health Secretary Matt Hancock announced at the NHS conference.

He said a first dose had now been given to four out of five adults (80.1%).

As of Wednesday more than 30 million people - 58.2% of adults - have had both doses.

New figures published by the Office for National Statistics on Thursday suggest people who test positive for Covid after being vaccinated are less likely to show symptoms and have less of the virus in their body.

The ONS analysis swabbed people at random and picked up asymptomatic infections as well as cases that show up in the daily case numbers.

It showed that the risk of getting infected was highest in the first three weeks after vaccination and fell after a second vaccination. Just under 40% of people who did get infected after vaccination showed symptoms.

There have been about 16,000 suspected cases of coronavirus reinfection detected in England, out of nearly four million cases, according to Public Health England data, although only 53 have been confirmed.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Béla Tarr, Visionary Hungarian Filmmaker, Dies at Seventy After Long Illness
UK and France Pledge Military Hubs Across Ukraine in Post-Ceasefire Security Plan
Prince Harry Poised to Regain UK Security Cover, Clearing Way for Family Visits
UK Junk Food Advertising Ban Faces Major Loophole Allowing Brand-Only Promotions
Maduro’s Arrest Without The Hague Tests International Law—and Trump’s Willingness to Break It
German Intelligence Secretly Intercepted Obama’s Air Force One Communications
The U.S. State Department’s account in Persian: “President Trump is a man of action. If you didn’t know it until now, now you do—do not play games with President Trump.”
Fake Mainstream Media Double Standard: Elon Musk Versus Mamdani
HSBC Leads 2026 Mortgage Rate Cuts as UK Lending Costs Ease
US Joint Chiefs Chairman Outlines How Operation Absolute Resolve Was Carried Out in Venezuela
Starmer Welcomes End of Maduro Era While Stressing International Law and UK Non-Involvement
Korean Beauty Turns Viral Skincare Into a Global Export Engine
UK Confirms Non-Involvement in U.S. Military Action Against Venezuela
UK Terror Watchdog Calls for Australian-Style Social Media Ban to Protect Teenagers
Iranian Protests Intensify as Another Revolutionary Guard Member Is Killed and Khamenei Blames the West
Delta Force Identified as Unit Behind U.S. Operation That Captured Venezuela’s President
Europe’s Luxury Sanctions Punish Russian Consumers While a Sanctions-Circumvention Industry Thrives
Berkshire’s Buffett-to-Abel Transition Tests Whether a One-Man Trust Model Can Survive as a System
Fraud in European Central Bank: Lagarde’s Hidden Pay Premium Exposes a Transparency Crisis at the European Central Bank
Trump Announces U.S. Large-Scale Strike on Venezuela, Declares President Maduro and Wife Captured
Tesla Loses EV Crown to China’s BYD After Annual Deliveries Decline in 2025
UK Manufacturing Growth Reaches 15-Month Peak as Output and Orders Improve in December
Beijing Threatened to Scrap UK–China Trade Talks After British Minister’s Taiwan Visit
Newly Released Files Reveal Tony Blair Pressured Officials Over Iraq Death Case Involving UK Soldiers
Top Stocks and Themes to Watch in 2026 as Markets Enter New Year with Fresh Momentum
No UK Curfew Ordered as Deepfake TikTok Falsely Attributes Decree to Prime Minister Starmer
Europe’s Largest Defence Groups Set to Return Nearly Five Billion Dollars to Shareholders in Twenty Twenty-Five
Abu Dhabi ‘Capital of Capital’: How Abu Dhabi Rose as a Sovereign Wealth Power
Diamonds Are Powering a New Quantum Revolution
Trump Threatens Strikes Against Iran if Nuclear Programme Is Restarted
Apple Escalates Legal Fight by Appealing £1.5 Billion UK Ruling Over App Store Fees
UK Debt Levels Sit Mid-Range Among Advanced Economies Despite Rising Pressures
UK Plans Royal Diplomacy with King Charles and Prince William to Reinvigorate Trade Talks with US
King Charles and Prince William Poised for Separate 2026 US Visits to Reinforce UK-US Trade and Diplomatic Ties
Apple Moves to Appeal UK Ruling Ordering £1.5 Billion in Customer Overcharge Damages
King Charles’s 2025 Christmas Message Tops UK Television Ratings on Christmas Day
The Battle Over the Internet Explodes: The United States Bars European Officials and Ignites a Diplomatic Crisis
Princesses Beatrice and Eugenie Join Royal Family at Sandringham Christmas Service
Fine Wine Investors Find Little Cheer in Third Year of Falls
UK Mortgage Rates Edge Lower as Bank of England Base Rate Cut Filters Through Lending Market
U.S. Supermarket Gives Customers Free Groceries for Christmas After Computer Glitch
Air India ‘Finds’ a Plane That Vanished 13 Years Ago
Caviar and Foie Gras? China Is Becoming a Luxury Food Powerhouse
Hong Kong Climbs to Second Globally in 2025 Tourism Rankings Behind Bangkok
From Sunniest Year on Record to Terror Plots and Sports Triumphs: The UK’s Defining Stories of 2025
Greta Thunberg Released on Bail After Arrest at London Pro-Palestinian Demonstration
Banksy Unveils New Winter Mural in London Amid Festive Season Excitement
UK Households Face Rising Financial Strain as Tax Increases Bite and Growth Loses Momentum
UK Government Approves Universal Studios Theme Park in Bedford Poised to Rival Disneyland Paris
UK Gambling Shares Slide as Traders Respond to Steep Tax Rises and Sector Uncertainty
×