London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Jun 22, 2026

Analysis: Tax-cut talk in UK leadership race adds to inflation angst

Analysis: Tax-cut talk in UK leadership race adds to inflation angst

Promises of tax cuts from candidates to succeed British Prime Minister Boris Johnson pose another inflationary risk which could pressure the Bank of England to raise interest rates more aggressively, cancelling out any potential boost to the economy.

Most of the 11 contenders, trying to portray themselves as defenders of the Conservatives' traditional low-tax ethos, have promised to ease a tax burden which is set to hit its highest since the 1940s.

With little mention of any off-setting spending cuts, the pledges mark a further departure from the era of fiscal restraint - or austerity - that was the hallmark of Conservative Party policy for much of the decade before the coronavirus pandemic spurred a historic surge in spending, and debt.

Even big-spending Johnson, who last week announced he will step down after a scandal-strewn three years in power, has balked recently at the prospect of immediate tax cuts with inflation barrelling towards double-digits.

For some, the calls to cut taxes sit uneasily with the economic realities facing Britain. The International Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development have warned that the country runs a bigger risk of persistently high inflation than other similar economies.

"(It) feels like this leadership election is dodging the key issue facing the Conservative Party: you can't have (Margaret) Thatcher levels of taxation and Johnson levels of public spending," said Gavin Barwell, who was chief of staff to Johnson's predecessor Theresa May.

The government's fiscal forecasters have warned that Britain faces an unsustainable debt burden, more than three times its already historically high level in 50 years' time unless future governments take action.

The horse-trading over taxes represents potential headache for BoE policymakers concerned about the persistence of inflation.

While tax cuts could inject some stimulus into an economy that looks set to flat-line in 2023, a wider budget deficit might further weaken the pound and stoke inflation.

"If you're looking at big tax cuts funded by borrowing in the short run then that might have some small effect, in the wrong direction, on inflation," Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank, told the BBC.

"It may result in the Bank of England increasing interest rates a little bit further and a little bit faster than they otherwise would have done."

Philip Shaw, chief economist of Investec bank, agreed.

"The response to looser fiscal policy by the Bank of England may be to hike rates more aggressively, to counter the resulting upward pressure to inflation that this would bring about," he said.

While there is little detail about the candidates' promises, differences are emerging on the scale of the support being offered by Johnson's successors.

Some have pledged sweeping tax cuts aimed at both businesses and households, on the grounds this would boost corporate investment and help hard-pressed households grappling with inflation.

While economists say cuts to taxes on consumers would offer short-term relief in the cost-of-living crisis, they are more likely to be inflationary in the long run with benefits skewed towards wealthier households.

TAXING QUESTIONS


Sajid Javid, who resigned as health secretary last week and previously held the finance and business ministerial briefs, has promised to lower the duty paid on motor fuels, income tax, and corporation tax. He has also pledged to reverse an increase in National Insurance (NI) - or social security - contributions.

Current foreign Secretary Liz Truss has said she would reduce the NI increase and cut corporation tax.

Jeremy Hunt, one of Truss's predecessors and a former health minister, said he would cut "all taxes" but would focus on cutting corporation tax first, saying it would be least inflationary.

By contrast, Rishi Sunak - who was finance minister until his resignation last Tuesday - has stressed the need for fiscal restraint and dismissed the "comforting fairy tales" of rival contenders that would leave the next generation poorer.

Keir Starmer, leader of the opposition Labour Party, homed in on the lack of clarity.

"Every single Tory candidate making wild spending commitments should tell us precisely where they're getting that money from. Is it cuts? If so, what are they cutting?" Starmer said on Monday.

Tax cut pledges during a Conservative leadership election are nothing new, but some economists warn the lack of debate about trade-offs - during a time of economic upheaval - has echoes of past policy mistakes.

In the early 1970s, Conservative prime minister Edward Heath's "dash for growth" policy contributed to inflation spiralling out of control by the mid-1970s.

"There's a strong smell of 1972 about Tory leadership candidates promising fiscal largesse while inflation is rising," said independent economist Frances Coppola.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Expands Alcohol Ban Enforcement Using Tagging Technology Ahead of World Cup
UK Invests £50 Million in Critical Minerals Supply Chain Security
UK Appoints Special Envoy on Preventing Sexual Violence in Conflict
UK Introduces Fines for Landlords of Unsafe Rental Properties
Reform UK Leads Opinion Polls as Immigration Debate Reshapes UK Politics
Police Investigate Edinburgh Attacks as Potential Hate Crimes
King Charles to Publish Personal Tax and Royal Household Financial Records
Nottingham University Hospitals Maternity Inquiry Report Set for Publication
Heat-Health Alerts Issued Across London and Southern England Amid Rising Temperatures
UK Economy Shows Pressure From Middle East Conflict Despite Modest Growth
Brexit Anniversary Reignites Debate Over UK Economic and Political Direction
UK Parliament Continues Legislative Work Amid Leadership Transition
Financial Markets Hold Steady After UK Leadership Shake-Up
Andy Burnham Enters Labour Leadership Race With Strong Parliamentary Backing
Keir Starmer Resigns as UK Prime Minister After Two Years in Office
Reform UK MP Lee Anderson to Raise Pension Concerns Over British Coal Staff Superannuation Scheme
UK Parliament to Debate Newborn Screening for Spinal Muscular Atrophy Following Public Petition
Met Office Warns of Water Safety Risks During Heatwave as Temperatures Peak in England
Treasury Increases Mileage Allowance Payments for 2026–27 Tax Year to 55 Pence Per Mile
UK Government Raises Electricity Generator Levy to 55 Percent in New Revenue Measure
House of Lords Moves Financial Services and Markets Bill to Committee Stage Amid Regulatory Scrutiny
Westminster Hall to Debate Petition on Pro-Israel Influence in UK Politics
UK Parliament Prepares for Estimates Days Debates as Backbench Business Schedule Approved
Armed Forces Bill Nears Final Stages in UK House of Commons With Military Justice Reforms
Donald Trump Comments on UK Political Situation, Citing Immigration and Energy Policy Concerns
Andy Burnham By-Election Victory Fuels Speculation Over Potential Labour Leadership Contest
UK Economy Shows Resilience but Faces Headwinds from Middle East Tensions, UK Finance Says
UK Parliament Opens Week of Debates on Net Zero, Security and Armed Forces Reform
Met Office Issues Amber Extreme Heat Warning as Temperatures Expected to Reach 35C Across England and Wales
Prime Minister Keir Starmer Faces Mounting Leadership Pressure After Makerfield By-Election Defeat
London Hotel Wins World’s Best Afternoon Tea Award at International Hospitality Guide La Liste
Court of Appeal Rules in Favour of Competition and Markets Authority in Phenytoin Drug Case
Chichester Waste Site Suspended After Environment Agency Finds Serious Fire and Pollution Risks
UK Appoints Chris Elmore as Special Envoy on Preventing Sexual Violence in Conflict
Environment Agency Fines Yorkshire Firms Nearly £470,000 for Environmental Permit Breaches
British Chambers of Commerce Says Post-Brexit Trade Deals Have Limited Economic Impact
Resident Doctors to Vote on Government Pay Offer in Ongoing NHS Dispute
UK Public Borrowing Reaches £46.3 Billion in Early Fiscal Year, Driven by Debt Interest Costs
UK Government Unveils £100 Million Package to Strengthen Fire and Rescue Response Capacity
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates at 3.75 Percent Despite Easing Inflation
Met Office Extends Amber Heat Warning as Temperatures Forecast to Reach 38C Across Southern England
Prime Minister Keir Starmer Expected to Resign Amid Mounting Labour Party Pressure
UK Government Tightens Procurement Rules to Prioritise National Security and Supply Chain Resilience
National Drought Group Reviews Water Supply Risks After Dry Spring and Ongoing Heatwave
Andy Burnham Faces Leadership Speculation After Weak Local Election Results for Labour
Charity Commission Appoints Interim Managers to Barnabas Aid Amid Financial Investigation
Government Awards £27 Million Leonardo UK Contract to Maintain Military Aircraft Fleet
Environment Agency Suspends Chichester Waste Site Permit Over Fire and Pollution Risks
Border Force Seizes Record Cannabis Shipment in Major UK Criminal Network Disruption
Lloyds Banking Group to Hire 300 Artificial Intelligence Specialists in Digital Expansion Push
×