UK Retail Sales Growth Slows as Households Hold Back Ahead of Black Friday and Budget
Annual sales rose just 1.6% in October amid budget jitters and postponed spending ahead of key promotions
Retail sales across the United Kingdom rose by only 1.6 per cent in October, marking the weakest increase since May, as consumers pulled back ahead of the government’s upcoming budget and the major Black Friday sales event.
The data originate from the latest monthly update by the British Retail Consortium in conjunction with KPMG.
Food sales growth decelerated sharply, slowing by 0.8 percentage points to 3.5 per cent year-on-year, a drop attributed largely to price effects rather than volume gains.
Non-food sales were essentially flat, up just 0.1 per cent, as sales of apparel, stationery and home appliances fell amid expectations of upcoming discounts and milder autumn weather.
Separate figures from Barclays show a marked deterioration in consumer sentiment: household financial confidence plunged from 74 per cent to 63 per cent, while the share of respondents confident in job security and ability to spend on non-essential items fell to their lowest levels since 2023. Card spending via Barclays’ debit and credit channels declined by 0.8 per cent in October, after a 0.7 per cent fall in September.
Retailers expressed concern that the timing of the impending budget–scheduled just days before Black Friday–could further suppress consumer spending.
Several major chains also noted that shoppers were delaying purchases in the hope of better deals later in November.
The subdued October performance underscores the fragile state of household demand ahead of the traditionally lucrative “golden quarter” of the year.
Retailers now face the challenge of converting deferred demand into actual spending without eroding margins in the process.
The data originate from the latest monthly update by the British Retail Consortium in conjunction with KPMG.
Food sales growth decelerated sharply, slowing by 0.8 percentage points to 3.5 per cent year-on-year, a drop attributed largely to price effects rather than volume gains.
Non-food sales were essentially flat, up just 0.1 per cent, as sales of apparel, stationery and home appliances fell amid expectations of upcoming discounts and milder autumn weather.
Separate figures from Barclays show a marked deterioration in consumer sentiment: household financial confidence plunged from 74 per cent to 63 per cent, while the share of respondents confident in job security and ability to spend on non-essential items fell to their lowest levels since 2023. Card spending via Barclays’ debit and credit channels declined by 0.8 per cent in October, after a 0.7 per cent fall in September.
Retailers expressed concern that the timing of the impending budget–scheduled just days before Black Friday–could further suppress consumer spending.
Several major chains also noted that shoppers were delaying purchases in the hope of better deals later in November.
The subdued October performance underscores the fragile state of household demand ahead of the traditionally lucrative “golden quarter” of the year.
Retailers now face the challenge of converting deferred demand into actual spending without eroding margins in the process.
