London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Jul 19, 2025

Analysis: Putin draws Erdogan a red line on Russia's southern flank with Karabakh deal

Analysis: Putin draws Erdogan a red line on Russia's southern flank with Karabakh deal

Russian President Vladimir Putin has brokered a Nagorno-Karabakh peace deal that locks in territorial gains for Turkey-backed Azerbaijan. In doing so, he has thwarted a stronger Turkish presence in a region Moscow views as its backyard.

Six weeks of heavy fighting between Azerbaijan and ethnic Armenian forces over the enclave have tested Moscow's influence in the South Caucasus, a swath of the former Soviet Union it views as vital to defending its own southern flank.

Three previous ceasefires, at least one of which was brokered by Moscow, fell apart. Azerbaijan accidentally shot down a Russian military helicopter, killing two. And Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan backed the Azeri offensive militarily and diplomatically and tried to gatecrash mediation efforts.

In the end though, Putin has achieved a more than two decades Russian dream of inserting Russian peacekeepers into Nagorno-Karabakh on a renewable five-year basis and, for now, kept Turkish troops, who will instead help run a ceasefire monitoring centre outside the enclave, out.

That expands Russia's military footprint, putting an apparent end to geopolitical competition between Moscow and Ankara of the kind that continues to play out in Syria and Libya.

With the wider deal, Putin has staved off a full Turkish-backed Azeri takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh however, which ethnic Armenians forces said was just days away from falling, and reaffirmed Russian influence in the region by brokering a deal which excluded Turkey as a signatory.

"Today's deal...in many ways addresses core Russian interests in the conflict, and is perhaps the best outcome (at least in short term) Moscow could get," said Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center think tank.

"Russia has put its 2,000 peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh - something that Moscow wanted to do back in 1994, but was unable to. There will be no Turkish armed peacekeepers, which is very important for Moscow."


TURKISH GAMBIT


Ankara has said the ceasefire deal was a "sacred success" for its ally Azerbaijan while Erdogan, who has yet to comment, has described Ankara's support for Azerbaijan as part of Turkey's quest for its "deserved place in the world order".

Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the German Marshall Fund research group in Ankara, said the Russian presence in the area was a negative for Turkey and Azerbaijan but the Azeri position was now far stronger than six weeks ago.

"Azerbaijan has obtained a great success in the field and this is consolidated by this ceasefire," he said.

Ankara did not need permission to send its forces to observe the ceasefire, Unluhisarcikli said, although it was unclear if Moscow had accepted that.

Eurasia Group said Erdogan would probably not be too upset by the way things had turned out.

"Turkey maintains some role, but it is clearly secondary to Russia’s," it said in a research note. "Erdogan is likely fine with this. His military support for Azerbaijan made a big difference at relatively little cost to Turkey, and it granted Ankara a nationalist win and some leverage with Russia."

That said, Russia's peacekeepers, armed and backed with armoured vehicles, freeze the conflict, making it impossible for Azerbaijan or Turkish-backed proxy forces to advance further.

There's another potential dividend for Moscow, which has a defence pact with Armenia and maintains a military base there.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan swept to power on the back of 2018 street protests which forced the then government to resign.

Moscow has had an uneasy relationship with Pashinyan ever since, seeing him as less pro-Russian than his predecessors on key policy issues and as someone who unseated a generation of Kremlin loyalists.

The Karabakh deal, seen by many Armenians as a sell-out, puts Pashinyan under pressure, with opposition political parties calling for him to resign.

Angry crowds stormed government buildings overnight, including his official residence which was looted, and Pashinyan was forced to deny allegations he had fled the country.

Moscow would be unlikely to mourn his downfall if it happened.

But even as Moscow savoured its diplomatic coup, Mark Galeotti, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said the ceasefire deal flattered to deceive.

"This is managing decline, a Russia that in regional terms is strong in capacities, weak in will, trying to make the best of a situation, and in the process disappointing its allies and doing nothing to deter its challengers," he wrote in a Moscow Times opinion piece.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Brazil's Supreme Court Imposes Radical Restrictions on Former President Bolsonaro
Centrist Criticism of von der Leyen Resurfaces as she Survives EU Confidence Vote
Judge Criticizes DOJ Over Secrecy in Dropping Charges Against Gang Leader
Apple Closes $16.5 Billion Tax Dispute With Ireland
Von der Leyen Faces Setback Over €2 Trillion EU Budget Proposal
UK and Germany Collaborate on Global Military Equipment Sales
Trump Plans Over 10% Tariffs on African and Caribbean Nations
Flying Taxi CEO Reclaims Billionaire Status After Stock Surge
Epstein Files Deepen Republican Party Divide
Zuckerberg Faces $8 Billion Privacy Lawsuit From Meta Shareholders
FIFA Pressured to Rethink World Cup Calendar Due to Climate Change
SpaceX Nears $400 Billion Valuation With New Share Sale
Microsoft, US Lab to Use AI for Faster Nuclear Plant Licensing
Trump Walks Back Talk of Firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell
Zelensky Reshuffles Cabinet to Win Support at Home and in Washington
"Can You Hit Moscow?" Trump Asked Zelensky To Make Putin "Feel The Pain"
Irish Tech Worker Detained 100 days by US Authorities for Overstaying Visa
Dimon Warns on Fed Independence as Trump Administration Eyes Powell’s Succession
Church of England Removes 1991 Sexuality Guidelines from Clergy Selection
Superman Franchise Achieves Success with Latest Release
Hungary's Viktor Orban Rejects Agreements on Illegal Migration
Jeff Bezos Considers Purchasing Condé Nast as a Wedding Gift
Ghislaine Maxwell Says She’s Ready to Testify Before Congress on Epstein’s Criminal Empire
Bal des Pompiers: A Celebration of Community and Firefighter Culture in France
FBI Chief Kash Patel Denies Resignation Speculations Amid Epstein List Controversy
Air India Pilot’s Mental Health Records Under Scrutiny
Google Secures Windsurf AI Coding Team in $2.4 Billion Licence Deal
Jamie Dimon Warns Europe Is Losing Global Competitiveness and Flags Market Complacency
South African Police Minister Suspended Amid Organised Crime Allegations
Nvidia CEO Claims Chinese Military Reluctance to Use US AI Technology
Hong Kong Advances Digital Asset Strategy to Address Economic Challenges
Australia Rules Out Pre‑commitment of Troops, Reinforces Defence Posture Amid US‑China Tensions
Martha Wells Says Humanity Still Far from True Artificial Intelligence
Nvidia Becomes World’s First Four‑Trillion‑Dollar Company Amid AI Boom
U.S. Resumes Deportations to Third Countries After Supreme Court Ruling
Excavation Begins at Site of Mass Grave for Children at Former Irish Institution
Iranian President Reportedly Injured During Israeli Strike on Secret Facility
EU Delays Retaliatory Tariffs Amid New U.S. Threats on Imports
Trump Defends Attorney General Pam Bondi Amid Epstein Memo Backlash
Renault Shares Drop as CEO Luca de Meo Announces Departure Amid Reports of Move to Kering
Senior Aides for King Charles and Prince Harry Hold Secret Peace Summit
Anti‑Semitism ‘Normalised’ in Middle‑Class Britain, Says Commission Co‑Chair
King Charles Meets David Beckham at Chelsea Flower Show
If the Department is Really About Justice: Ghislaine Maxwell Should Be Freed Now
NYC Candidate Zohran Mamdani’s ‘Antifada’ Remarks Spark National Debate on Political Language and Economic Policy
President Trump Visits Flood-Ravaged Texas, Praises Community Strength and First Responders
From Mystery to Meltdown, Crisis Within the Trump Administration: Epstein Files Ignite A Deepening Rift at the Highest Levels of Government Reveals Chaos, Leaks, and Growing MAGA Backlash
Trump Slams Putin Over War Death Toll, Teases Major Russia Announcement
Reparations argument crushed
Rainmaker CEO Says Cloud Seeding Paused Before Deadly Texas Floods
×