London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Aug 08, 2025

Analysis: Putin draws Erdogan a red line on Russia's southern flank with Karabakh deal

Analysis: Putin draws Erdogan a red line on Russia's southern flank with Karabakh deal

Russian President Vladimir Putin has brokered a Nagorno-Karabakh peace deal that locks in territorial gains for Turkey-backed Azerbaijan. In doing so, he has thwarted a stronger Turkish presence in a region Moscow views as its backyard.

Six weeks of heavy fighting between Azerbaijan and ethnic Armenian forces over the enclave have tested Moscow's influence in the South Caucasus, a swath of the former Soviet Union it views as vital to defending its own southern flank.

Three previous ceasefires, at least one of which was brokered by Moscow, fell apart. Azerbaijan accidentally shot down a Russian military helicopter, killing two. And Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan backed the Azeri offensive militarily and diplomatically and tried to gatecrash mediation efforts.

In the end though, Putin has achieved a more than two decades Russian dream of inserting Russian peacekeepers into Nagorno-Karabakh on a renewable five-year basis and, for now, kept Turkish troops, who will instead help run a ceasefire monitoring centre outside the enclave, out.

That expands Russia's military footprint, putting an apparent end to geopolitical competition between Moscow and Ankara of the kind that continues to play out in Syria and Libya.

With the wider deal, Putin has staved off a full Turkish-backed Azeri takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh however, which ethnic Armenians forces said was just days away from falling, and reaffirmed Russian influence in the region by brokering a deal which excluded Turkey as a signatory.

"Today's deal...in many ways addresses core Russian interests in the conflict, and is perhaps the best outcome (at least in short term) Moscow could get," said Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center think tank.

"Russia has put its 2,000 peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh - something that Moscow wanted to do back in 1994, but was unable to. There will be no Turkish armed peacekeepers, which is very important for Moscow."


TURKISH GAMBIT


Ankara has said the ceasefire deal was a "sacred success" for its ally Azerbaijan while Erdogan, who has yet to comment, has described Ankara's support for Azerbaijan as part of Turkey's quest for its "deserved place in the world order".

Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the German Marshall Fund research group in Ankara, said the Russian presence in the area was a negative for Turkey and Azerbaijan but the Azeri position was now far stronger than six weeks ago.

"Azerbaijan has obtained a great success in the field and this is consolidated by this ceasefire," he said.

Ankara did not need permission to send its forces to observe the ceasefire, Unluhisarcikli said, although it was unclear if Moscow had accepted that.

Eurasia Group said Erdogan would probably not be too upset by the way things had turned out.

"Turkey maintains some role, but it is clearly secondary to Russia’s," it said in a research note. "Erdogan is likely fine with this. His military support for Azerbaijan made a big difference at relatively little cost to Turkey, and it granted Ankara a nationalist win and some leverage with Russia."

That said, Russia's peacekeepers, armed and backed with armoured vehicles, freeze the conflict, making it impossible for Azerbaijan or Turkish-backed proxy forces to advance further.

There's another potential dividend for Moscow, which has a defence pact with Armenia and maintains a military base there.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan swept to power on the back of 2018 street protests which forced the then government to resign.

Moscow has had an uneasy relationship with Pashinyan ever since, seeing him as less pro-Russian than his predecessors on key policy issues and as someone who unseated a generation of Kremlin loyalists.

The Karabakh deal, seen by many Armenians as a sell-out, puts Pashinyan under pressure, with opposition political parties calling for him to resign.

Angry crowds stormed government buildings overnight, including his official residence which was looted, and Pashinyan was forced to deny allegations he had fled the country.

Moscow would be unlikely to mourn his downfall if it happened.

But even as Moscow savoured its diplomatic coup, Mark Galeotti, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said the ceasefire deal flattered to deceive.

"This is managing decline, a Russia that in regional terms is strong in capacities, weak in will, trying to make the best of a situation, and in the process disappointing its allies and doing nothing to deter its challengers," he wrote in a Moscow Times opinion piece.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
British Labour Government Utilizes Counter-Terrorism Tools for Social Media Monitoring Against Legitimate Critics
OpenAI Launches GPT‑5, Its Most Advanced AI Model Yet
Embarrassment in Britain: Homelessness Minister Evicted Tenants and Forced to Resign
President Trump nominated Stephen Miran, his top economic adviser and a critic of the Federal Reserve, to temporarily fill an open Fed seat
The AI-Powered Education Revolution: Market Potential and Transformative Impact
Chikungunya Virus Outbreak in Southern China: Over 7,000 Hospitalized
French wine makers have seen catastrophic damage to vines that were almost ready to be harvested after the worst fires in more than 70 years burned through the south of the country
US Lawmaker Probes Intel CEO’s China Ties Amid National Security Concerns
Brazilian President Lula says he’ll contact the leaders of BRICS states to propose a unified response to U.S. tariffs
Trump Open to Meeting Putin as Soon as Next Week, with Possible Trilateral Summit Including Zelenskiy
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau spark dating rumors, joining high stakes world of celeb-politician romances
US envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Moscow to seek a breakthrough in the Ukraine war ahead of President Trump’s peace deadline
WhatsApp Deletes 6.8 Million Scam Accounts Amid Rising Global Fraud
Nine people have been hospitalized and dozens of salmonella cases have been reported after an outbreak of infections linked to certain brands of pistachios and pistachio-containing products, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada
Karol Nawrocki Inaugurated as Poland’s President, Setting Stage for Clash with Tusk Government
Trump Signals JD Vance as ‘Most Likely’ MAGA Successor for 2028
US Charges Two Chinese Nationals for Illegal Nvidia AI Chip Exports
Texas Residents Face Water Restrictions While AI Data Centers Consume Millions of Gallons
U.S. Tariff Policy Triggers Market Volatility Amid Growing Global Trade Tensions
Tariffs, AI, and the Shifting U.S. Macro Landscape: Navigating a New Economic Regime
Representative Greene Urges H-1B Visa Cuts Amid U.S.-India Trade Tensions
U.S. House Committee Subpoenas Clintons and Senior Officials in Epstein Investigation
Sydney Sweeney Registered as Republican as Controversial American Eagle Ad Sparks Debate
Trump Accuses Major Banks of Politically Motivated Account Denials and Prepares Executive Order
TikTok Removes Huda Kattan Video Over Anti-Israel Conspiracy Claims
Trump Threatens Tariffs on India Over Russian Oil Imports
German Finance Minister Criticizes Trump’s Attacks on Institutions
U.S. Proposes Visa Bond of Up to $15,000 for Some Applicants
U.S. Farmers Increase Lobbying Amid Immigration Crackdown
Elon Musk Receives $23.7 Billion Tesla Stock Award
Texas House Paralyzed After Democrats Walk Out Over Redistricting
Mexican Cartels Complicate Sheinbaum’s U.S. Security Talks
Mark Zuckerberg Declares War on the iPhone
India Rejects U.S. Tariff Threat, Defends Russian Oil Purchases
United States Establishes Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Digital Asset Stockpile
Thousands of Private ChatGPT Conversations Accidentally Indexed by Google
China Tightens Mineral Controls, Curtailing Critical Inputs for Western Defence Contractors
OpenAI’s Bold Bet: Teaching AI to Think, Not Just Chat
Tesla Seeks Shareholder Approval for $29 Billion Compensation Package for Elon Musk
Nvidia is cutting prices on its RTX 50-series graphics cards after sales slowed and inventories piled up
Ghislaine Maxwell Transferred to Minimum-Security Prison Amid Ongoing DOJ Discussions
U.S. Tariffs Surge to Highest Levels in Nearly a Century Under Second Trump Term
Matt Taibbi Slams Media for Role in Russiagate Narrative
Pilots Call for Mental Health Support Without Stigma
All Five Trapped Miners Found Dead After El Teniente Mine Collapse
Ong Beng Seng Pleads Guilty in Corruption Case Linked to Former Singapore Transport Minister
BP’s Largest Oil and Gas Find in 25 Years Uncovered Offshore Brazil
Italy Fines Shein One Million Euros for Misleading Sustainability Claims
JPMorgan and Coinbase Unveil Partnership to Let Chase Cardholders Buy Crypto Directly
Declassified Annex Links Soros‑Affiliated Officials and Clinton Campaign to ‘Russiagate’ Narrative
×