London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Jan 14, 2026

Analysis: Boris Johnson's unsolvable Brexit problem is coming back to bite him

Analysis: Boris Johnson's unsolvable Brexit problem is coming back to bite him

As the British parliament returns on Tuesday to the backdrop of inconclusive local election results and the ongoing "Partygate" scandal now impacting both Boris Johnson and the leader of the opposition Keir Starmer, there's one major headache facing the United Kingdom that might not get the look in it deserves: making Brexit work.

Specifically, making Brexit work in the part of the UK that has been arguably most affected by leaving the European Union, Northern Ireland.

Brexit always meant that Northern Ireland would leave the European Union, along with the rest of the UK. Unlike other parts of the country, however, it shares a land border with the EU on the island of Ireland.

The EU has some of the world's strictest food regulations and, with the UK now allowed to set its own standards, Brussels was concerned that sub-standard goods could enter the union's single market via the Irish land border.

Efforts were made to prevent the need for a customs border that would prevent the flow of goods, particularly foods, between the two countries for two key reasons.

Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald (left) and Sinn Fein Northern Ireland leader Michelle O'Neill (right) arrive at the election count in Belfast on May 6 2022.


First, trade between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland is crucially important to the way of life in both countries.

Second, the idea of any physical border infrastructure between the two, even if it was just for customs checks, could run the risk of a return to sectarian violence on the island of Ireland, something everyone wanted to avoid.

With this in mind, the Northern Ireland Protocol was agreed by Johnson and the EU in 2019, which would get around the issue by keeping Northern Ireland within the EU's regulatory sphere, thereby allowing that border to remain open.

That's all well and good for trade on the island of Ireland, but what about products traveling into Northern Ireland that could then carry on into the EU?

Johnson agreed that in order to keep the Irish border open, goods traveling from Great Britain would be checked before entering Northern Ireland, thereby creating a sea border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.

Unionists in Northern Ireland, especially the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) who had supported Johnson throughout the process, felt they'd been thrown under a bus and that the Prime Minister was effectively handing Irish Republicans the excuse they needed to push for a border poll, unifying Ireland.

Johnson's government has mitigated these concerns by delaying the full implementation of the protocol numerous times, something the EU has described as illegal, describing it as a breach of the Brexit withdrawal agreement.

O'Neill (center) celebrates with party colleagues after being elected at the Meadowbank election count center in Magherafelt, Northern Ireland, on May 6.


All of this brings us to last week, when Northern Ireland voted in legislative elections and for the first time ever, made Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein the largest group in Stormont, Northern Ireland's devolved parliament, holding 27 seats compared to the DUP's 25 (there are 90 seats in total).

Steve Aiken, a member of the Northern Ireland Assembly for the Ulster Unionist Party, believes the domination of two parties at the extreme ends of the Unionist-Republican divide means the protocol can now be weaponized by either side.

"In some respects Northern Ireland moved to populism before the rest of the West," he says. "No one in Northern Ireland likes the protocol but we appreciate there has to be some kind of arrangement. And until the rhetoric is dialed down by everyone in Northern Ireland, the EU and the UK, we won't get anywhere near a sensible place."

Michelle O'Neill, who leads Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland and is Vice President of the party, has previously said that there is "no credible alternative to the protocol" and has called on the UK government to find a way to make it work.

The rhetoric that Aiken referred to ranges from the EU taking legal action against the UK; the UK threatening to unilaterally trigger Article 16, which would suspend parts of the protocol; Sinn Fein's position, which is the protocol implemented in full; and that of the DUP, which is currently refusing to join Sinn Fein in government unless the protocol is dropped.

These hardline positions, particularly those of the UK government, have become a particular area of concern for groups who want negotiated agreement.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson waves at the media as he leaves with his dog Dilyn after voting at London polling station on May 5.


"For the UK, the protocol has become so politically symbolic that it seems unprepared to negotiate anything that could be interpreted as a concession to Brussels," said Katy Hayward, professor of political sociology at Queen's University, Belfast.

This has baffled many in Brussels, as the protocol itself was initially hailed as a huge political success for Johnson. And as Hayward notes, the EU has "presented fact sheets" on customs and other regulatory measures, indicating "there is still some flexibility on the EU side" that Johnson could present as a win.

Instead, talk of Article 16 and scrapping the protocol persists, even after Northern Ireland's election results -- highlighting the extent of division. A senior UK government official told CNN that they believe Article 16 will be triggered sooner rather than later, it's just a matter of how it's done.

Johnson's spokesperson confirmed on Monday that the Prime Minister would leave the unenviable task of talking to the various parties in Stormont about forming a government to someone else.

Britain's Queen Elizabeth II welcomes Johnson, the then newly elected leader of the Conservative party, during an audience in Buckingham Palace, London in July 2019.


One of the challenges facing anyone seeking to smooth over divisions in Northern Ireland right now is that on a very surface level, the Republican argument favors the EU full implementation solution, while the Unionist solution sits with fixing the protocol, superficially the position of the UK government.

The problem is that, triggering Article 16 doesn't achieve a great deal. It would initially mean 30 days of negotiations at the end of which it's unlikely the protocol will have changed substantially -- which is not helpful to the DUP, currently refusing to form a power-sharing executive.

Meanwhile, the EU is reasonably saying the UK is trying to rewrite a treaty it negotiated.

The reality is that Northern Ireland is a complicated place with a complicated history and in order for people to live in relative peace, endless patience is required.

"As with the Belfast Agreement, continual flexibility is required on both sides," says Hayward about the accord also known as the Good Friday Agreement. "Ever since the Brexit vote, however, the UK has tried to keep the EU as its perpetual bogeyman."

And unfortunately for people living in Northern Ireland, that constant state of tension has consequences for people outside of the political classes of London and Brussels.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Intensifies Arctic Security Engagement as Trump’s Greenland Rhetoric Fuels Allied Concern
Meghan Markle Could Return to the UK for the First Time in Nearly Four Years If Security Is Secured
Meghan Markle Likely to Return to UK Only if Harry Secures Official Security Cover
UAE Restricts Funding for Emiratis to Study in UK Amid Fears Over Muslim Brotherhood Influence
EU Seeks ‘Farage Clause’ in Brexit Reset Talks to Safeguard Long-Term Agreement Stability
Starmer’s Push to Rally Support for Action Against Elon Musk’s X Faces Setback as Canada Shuns Ban
UK Free School Meals Expansion Faces Political and Budgetary Delays
EU Seeks ‘Farage Clause’ in Brexit Reset Talks With Britain
Germany Hit by Major Airport Strikes Disrupting European Travel
Prince Harry Seeks King Charles’ Support to Open Invictus Games on UK Return
Washington Holds Back as Britain and France Signal Willingness to Deploy Troops in Postwar Ukraine
Elon Musk Accuses UK Government of Suppressing Free Speech as X Faces Potential Ban Over AI-Generated Content
Russia Deploys Hypersonic Missile in Strike on Ukraine
OpenAI and SoftBank Commit One Billion Dollars to Energy and Data Centre Supplier
UK Prime Minister Starmer Reaffirms Support for Danish Sovereignty Over Greenland Amid U.S. Pressure
UK Support Bolsters U.S. Seizure of Russian-Flagged Tanker Marinera in Atlantic Strike on Sanctions Evasion
The Claim That Maduro’s Capture and Trial Violate International Law Is Either Legally Illiterate—or Deliberately Deceptive
UK Data Watchdog Probes Elon Musk’s X Over AI-Generated Grok Images Amid Surge in Non-Consensual Outputs
Prince Harry to Return to UK for Court Hearing Without Plans to Meet King Charles III
UK Confirms Support for US Seizure of Russian-Flagged Oil Tanker in North Atlantic
Béla Tarr, Visionary Hungarian Filmmaker, Dies at Seventy After Long Illness
UK and France Pledge Military Hubs Across Ukraine in Post-Ceasefire Security Plan
Prince Harry Poised to Regain UK Security Cover, Clearing Way for Family Visits
UK Junk Food Advertising Ban Faces Major Loophole Allowing Brand-Only Promotions
Maduro’s Arrest Without The Hague Tests International Law—and Trump’s Willingness to Break It
German Intelligence Secretly Intercepted Obama’s Air Force One Communications
The U.S. State Department’s account in Persian: “President Trump is a man of action. If you didn’t know it until now, now you do—do not play games with President Trump.”
Fake Mainstream Media Double Standard: Elon Musk Versus Mamdani
HSBC Leads 2026 Mortgage Rate Cuts as UK Lending Costs Ease
US Joint Chiefs Chairman Outlines How Operation Absolute Resolve Was Carried Out in Venezuela
Starmer Welcomes End of Maduro Era While Stressing International Law and UK Non-Involvement
Korean Beauty Turns Viral Skincare Into a Global Export Engine
UK Confirms Non-Involvement in U.S. Military Action Against Venezuela
UK Terror Watchdog Calls for Australian-Style Social Media Ban to Protect Teenagers
Iranian Protests Intensify as Another Revolutionary Guard Member Is Killed and Khamenei Blames the West
Delta Force Identified as Unit Behind U.S. Operation That Captured Venezuela’s President
Europe’s Luxury Sanctions Punish Russian Consumers While a Sanctions-Circumvention Industry Thrives
Berkshire’s Buffett-to-Abel Transition Tests Whether a One-Man Trust Model Can Survive as a System
Fraud in European Central Bank: Lagarde’s Hidden Pay Premium Exposes a Transparency Crisis at the European Central Bank
Trump Announces U.S. Large-Scale Strike on Venezuela, Declares President Maduro and Wife Captured
Tesla Loses EV Crown to China’s BYD After Annual Deliveries Decline in 2025
UK Manufacturing Growth Reaches 15-Month Peak as Output and Orders Improve in December
Beijing Threatened to Scrap UK–China Trade Talks After British Minister’s Taiwan Visit
Newly Released Files Reveal Tony Blair Pressured Officials Over Iraq Death Case Involving UK Soldiers
Top Stocks and Themes to Watch in 2026 as Markets Enter New Year with Fresh Momentum
No UK Curfew Ordered as Deepfake TikTok Falsely Attributes Decree to Prime Minister Starmer
Europe’s Largest Defence Groups Set to Return Nearly Five Billion Dollars to Shareholders in Twenty Twenty-Five
Abu Dhabi ‘Capital of Capital’: How Abu Dhabi Rose as a Sovereign Wealth Power
Diamonds Are Powering a New Quantum Revolution
Trump Threatens Strikes Against Iran if Nuclear Programme Is Restarted
×