London Daily

Focus on the big picture.

Analysis: Boris Johnson's reign is becoming one long crisis

Analysis: Boris Johnson's reign is becoming one long crisis

On Sunday, Boris Johnson will walk among his Conservative faithful for the first time since October 2019, as members of the UK's governing party gather in the English city of Manchester for their 2021 conference.

He does so as Britain faces numerous crises, from fuel shortages bringing its roads to a grinding halt to energy prices soaring due to unusually low gas supplies. There are serious concerns that the UK will experience food shortages as it approaches Christmas, while supermarket shelves are already looking bare in some areas.

It's hard to fathom that the last time Johnson attended a party conference, he did so as the new leader and, in the eyes of many, a conquering hero on a mission to finally deliver Brexit -- an issue that had paralyzed the UK since 2016.

Since then, Johnson has won a parliamentary majority, delivered a version of Brexit harder than many dreamed -- or feared -- possible, been engulfed in numerous scandals for his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and faced harsh criticism from many of his former supporters, who now question his competence.

Some are quick to blame Johnson's extreme interpretation of Brexit -- introducing hard trade barriers with Britain's closest trading partner and restricting the ability of Europeans to work in the UK -- for the shortages.

Others blame the shock of a global pandemic that has impeded movement between countries and disrupted supply chains.

A Shell garage employee holds a sign on the side of the road informing a queue of traffic that they do not have unleaded petrol on September 25, 2021, in Blackheath, London.

Motorists queue for petrol and diesel fuel at a petrol station off of the M3 motorway near Fleet, west of London, on September 26.


The truth is it's probably a combination of the two. What's tricky for Johnson, though, is that industry leaders and logistics experts are increasingly united in their belief that these problems could have been mitigated had the Prime Minister and his government heeded their warnings months, and in some cases years, before pumps ran dry and shelves emptied.

The most pressing issue is without question the shortage of fuel. The reason for these shortages is simple: there are not enough qualified tanker drivers to deliver fuel to filling stations.

Labor shortages are also partly responsible for the other woes facing Brits. From seasonal workers who pick and process fresh food to, again, drivers delivering that food in and out of cold stores, the UK could be on its way to a grim winter if fuel or food is scarce in the run-up to Christmas.

Capping off the potential for seasonal misery: heating homes could suddenly become much more expensive due to gas shortages. While this one cannot be solely blamed on Brexit, the government can be questioned on why a small island with a large population has among the lowest gas storage capacity in Europe.

A woman walks past empty shelves that stock chicken at an Asda supermarket on September 19, 2021, in London.


Can Britain's bleak winter be avoided? The short answer is yes, according to those who best know the issues at hand.

Claire Walker, co-executive director of the British Chambers of Commerce, told CNN that while business accepts the government has "made clear its priority is to transition from a reliance on EU workers to a focus on the domestic workforce," an undertaking such as this "requires careful planning and close working between business and government."

Unfortunately, many of those working in the affected industries point to a trend in the thinking of Johnson and his government that suggests they might not be willing to smooth this transition if it tramples on their Brexiteer principles.

"The government has consistently made decisions that seem to prioritize Brexit over avoiding potential disasters," says Anna Jerzewska, founder of Trade and Borders, a consultancy that advises importers and exporters.

She points to the summer of 2020, when the UK had the option to remain in the EU's customs union and single market a little longer, to cope with the strains on supply chains presented by the collision of Brexit and Covid.

"While they can credibly claim that Covid was a disaster no one could predict, we did know that leaving the transition period during a winter spike would create huge issues. They had time to put procedures in place but chose not to. And all the while, they left clients like mine, in the middle of a pandemic, without guidance on the post-Brexit arrangement until the very last minute."

Boris Johnson with his wife Carrie Johnson following his keynote speech at the 2019 Conservative Party Conference in Manchester.


When it comes to gas shortages, consecutive governments declined to build up the UK's capacity to store liquid gas, instead relying on a just-in-time supply chain -- as it does with many other critical products like foods and medical equipment.

"There is nothing preventing the government from maintaining gas reserves or PPE stockpiles. It's just that we seem to like living life on the edge," says Sam Lowe, senior fellow at the Centre for European Reform.

"Just-in-time is a perfectly valid way to run your economy," he adds, but "when you are fundamentally changing your entire economic model and living through an unprecedented crisis, it makes sense to have reserves of critical products to avoid a crunch-point crisis."

Charitable onlookers might say that predicting the need to stockpile because of the pandemic would require appointing Nostradamus to your cabinet. However, the potential for a pandemic has been high on the UK's risk radar for years now.

The UK's 2015 National Risk Register placed "Influenza pandemic" as its first bullet in the section labeled "The highest priority risks." In 2017, the register made specific mention of airborne human diseases.

A government spokesperson responded to the criticisms made by interviewees in this article by saying that the "recent challenges that have arisen across Europe are the result of a unique and unprecedented combination of issues, and we are working closely with businesses to support them through this period."

They said that the government is in regular contact with the food and farming organizations and industry to help them manage the situation." They added that "domestic gas storage capacity has had little bearing on the price of gas" and that "UK is not dependent on Russian oil or gas" as it "benefits from access to gas reserves in British territorial waters and secure sources from reliable import partners, such as Norway."

One way or another, it seems Johnson had ample time to cushion the blow for British citizens. The question is, why didn't he?

To get an answer, CNN spoke with multiple current and former government officials, all of whom worked with Johnson during the period when such decisions could have been made. All spoke on the condition of anonymity.

"When we first came into office, the country had been exhausted by Brexit's deadlock," says a former senior adviser to Johnson. "All we talked about was how to call an election, win a majority and do Brexit. We genuinely feared if it dragged on any longer it could lead to something nasty happening in society. There was limited capacity for anything else."

Another senior government adviser described the focus of the time being solely on delivering Brexit with a smile, even though fears over driver shortages and medicine supply chains were already causing departmental headaches.

Other government officials say that this insistence on optimism meant that Johnson had blind spots when it came to the realities of Brexit and Covid dovetailing.

Boris Johnson during the 2019 general election campaign.


"He doesn't like dealing with a reality. He only wants to go out and tell the public that everything's going great," says one former senior official. "We tried to tell him that at some point shortages of all sorts were likely and he can't just smile and pretend things are not happening."

On one hand, Johnson has been unlucky, a former government minister and Johnson loyalist says. "It is entirely reasonable for a new government to look at all of the hypothetical things that could happen, including a pandemic, and ask how likely it is to hit while we are in office."

However, the former minister concedes that it is, on the other hand, entirely reasonable to ask why "a government introducing once-in-a-generation changes like Brexit wouldn't do everything in its power to stop even the least likely disaster compounding Brexit difficulties."

Could it really be that the reason the UK was so ill-prepared for events that had been predicted is simply because Johnson doesn't like dealing in bad news?

Motorists queue to fill their cars at a Sainsbury's fuel station in Ashford, England, Saturday, September 25.


Even his closest allies admit that blind optimism is a trait of this Prime Minister.

"I would never want to temper Boris' enthusiasm, but he does need to hire people who make up for his weaknesses and are more interested in getting down into the detail than top-level, good news vision type stuff," a former senior adviser to Johnson says.

There are short-term fixes for Johnson, should he want to lessen these crises. He could further U-turn on short-term visas, allowing more foreign workers to plug gaps. He could seek a closer relationship with the EU to shore up supply chains and stockpiles. However, until there is sufficient pressure on Johnson from either the public or his party to do so, any options that involves more immigration or more Europe is a nonstarter for the man who embodied Brexit.

The fuel crisis has damaged Johnson badly, though it hasn't handed the opposition Labour Party sufficient polling gains that should worry Johnson on the assumption that the shortages will soon end. He is, despite all of this, still a relatively secure leader with a big majority and broad public appeal.

The question Johnson's Conservative delegates must consider as they gather for the first time since the world turned upside down: is the man who, two years ago, used a feel-good platform to bulldoze through the Brexit deadlock and get a specific job done also the best man to lead in a crisis? And if not, then how can they displace a popular leader with a majority before the next scheduled election in 2024?

Newsletter

Related Articles

London Daily
0:00
0:00
Close
Unelected PM of the UK holds an emergency meeting because a candidate got voted in… which he says is a threat to democracy…
You Are So Beautiful
Rob Schneider explains California reparations legislation.
Postmodern Jukebox European Tour Version
Who knew badminton could get so intense?
An old French tune (by Georges Brassens) Pomplamoose ft. John Schroeder
Farmers break through police barriers in Brussels.
Sattahip Motor Show 20
London's Iconic British Telecom Tower Sold To Become Hotel
SONATE AU CLAIR DE LUNE - Moonlight sonata
Ukraine Arrests Father-Son Duo In Lockbit Cybercrime Bust
A kiss to build a dream on
US Offers $15 Million For Info On Leaders Of Cybercrime Group Lockbit
Wonderful Tonight - Eric Clapton (Boyce Avenue acoustic cover)
Russia Claims UK Cultural Agency Spied for Ukraine
Mean Blues
Apple warns against drying iPhones with rice
La Chansonnette
Alexei Navalny: UK sanctions Russian prison chiefs after activist's death
Pattaya Addicts
German economy is in 'troubled waters' - ministry
Franz Liszt - Liebestraum - Love Dream
In a recent High Court hearing, the U.S. argued that Julian Assange endangered lives by releasing classified information.
Dream a little dream of me
New video
Unchained Melody sung like you've NEVER heard!
Tucker Carlson says Boris Johnson wants "a million dollars, in Bitcoin or cash, from Tucker Carlson to talk about Ukraine.
Dave Brubeck - Take Five
Russia is rebuilding capacity to destabilize European countries, new UK report warns
Édith Piaf - Non, Je Ne Regrette Rien (Sofie)
EU Commission wants anti-drone defenses at Brussels HQ
Rondo Alla Turca
Von der Leyen’s 2nd-term pitch: More military might, less climate talk
Kiss of fire
Global Law Enforcement Dismantles Lockbit Ransomware Operation
Tom Jones - I´ll Never Fall In Love Again 1967, 1989, 2001
Prince William Urges End to Gaza Conflict
Israel Cachao López - Guajira Clásica
UK court to hear Assange's final appeal against extradition to the US, where he faces charges related to his journalistic work—the publication of a classified video in 2010 that exposed US war crimes against humanity.
Edward Maya - Stereo Love (feat. Vika Jigulina) (Extended Mix)
About 50-60% kids either chose to be YouTuber or influencer
Strauss - Radetzky March - Karajan
A viral video of Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce lying on a Canberra footpath is celebrated by his media mates.
La vie en rose
European Countries React to Navalny's Death by Summoning Russian Diplomats
The Temptations - My Girl (Smokey Robinson Tribute) 2006 Kennedy Cent
Israel has gone ‘beyond self-defence’ in Gaza, says Labour’s Streeting
Orlando Cachaito Lopez Redencion
English farmers to be offered ‘largest ever’ grant scheme amid food security concerns
Edith Piaf - NON, JE NE REGRETTE RIEN
Cameron government knew Post Office ditched Horizon IT investigation
RADETZKY MARCH-2008-Wien, New Year Concert
EU Calls for Immediate Ceasefire in Gaza Conflict
Only you (And you alone)
EU Vows To Hold Putin "Accountable" After Meeting Alexei Navalny's Wife
Strangers In The Night
EU Launches Probe Into TikTok Over Child Protection Under Digital Content Law
Charles Aznavour - La Boheme
The EU Initiates Naval Mission to Defend Red Sea Trade Routes
Summer time
EU and UK Announce Joint Effort on Migration
Sting and Stevie Wonder - Fragile (from Sting's 60th birthday concert)
Brazil's Lula Likens Gaza Operation to Holocaust, Israel Says "Red Line" Crossed
Aux Champs Elysees
Ministers Confirm Proposal to Prohibit Mobile Phone Usage in English Schools
Stand By Me - Ben E. King (Boyce Avenue acoustic cover)
Microsoft-backed OpenAI valued at $80bn after company completes deal
La Mer (Beyond the Sea) – Avalon Jazz Band
‘Alexei would want to tell Russia not to give up fighting’
She
Rwandan Footballer's Dismissal Sparks Concerns Over UK Asylum Plan
Nathalie Song by Enzo Petrachi Stjepan Hauser Cello
Whisky Challenges China's Baijiu Market During New Year Celebrations
Shape of My Heart - Sting (Boyce Avenue acoustic cover)
Avdiivka - Symbol Of Ukrainian Resistance Now In Control Of Russian Troops
Radiohead - Creep
Putin Critic Alexei Navalny's "Killers" Refusing To Hand Over Body, Say Allies
Quizás,Quizás,Quizás - Andrea Bocelli - Jennifer Lopez
"Historic Step": Zelensky Signs Security Pact With Germany
Perhaps, Perhaps, Perhaps - Multi-Couples
"Historic Step": Zelensky Signs Security Pact With Germany
Pentatonix Havana
20 Tech Giants Sign Effort To Fight AI Election Interference Across Globe
Paula Cole - Autumn Leaves
Joe Biden Accuses Putin of Causing Navalny's Death
Oscar Benton Bensonhurst Blues
Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny has died at the Arctic prison colony
OH NANANA vs ABUSADAMENTE
Tucker Carlson grocery shopping in Russia. This is so interesting.
Nina Simone - ”I Put A Spell On You”. Vezi aici cum cântă Jeremy Ragsd
Julian Assange's Wife Warns of His Death if Extradited to US
NIGHTWISH - The Phantom Of The Opera
‘A lot higher than we expected’: Russian arms production worries Europe’s war planners
Motorshow 2016 Tanjay Negros Oriental
Greece Legalizes Same-Sex Marriage and Adoption Rights
Monica Bellucci - Ti Amo
Hungarian Foreign Minister: Europeans will lose Europe, the Union's policy must change drastically
Michael Jackson - Billie Jean Milena The Voice France 2018
In Britain Homeowners are receiving CPO’s (Compulsory Purchase Orders) so their homes can be redistributed to migrants
Michael Buble (Help Me Make It Through The Night) feat Loren Allred
Memories Canon In D - Maroon 5 (Boyce Avenue piano acoustic cover)
Matteo Simoni - Marina
Maroon 5 - One More Night
Maroon 5 - Memories
Mark Knopfler - Brothers In Arms (Berlin 2007 Live)
Mark Knopfler & Emmylou Harris - Romeo And Juliet (Real Live Roadrunni
Marina, Marina - The LUCKY DUCKIES intimist live concert at Guimarães
Major Lazer & DJ Snake – Lean On Mauranne The Voice France 2016
Love Theme from Romeo and Juliet - Joslin - Henri Mancini, Nino Rota
LoLa & Hauser - Love Story
Linkin Park Jay-Z - Numb Encore (Live 8 2005)
Hallelujah Mennel Ibtissem, The Voice France Leonard Cohen
Leonard Cohen - Dance Me to the End of Love
Leonard Cohen & Natasha Rostova - Dance me to the end of love
La casa de papel - Bella Ciao
La Camisa Negra
L'italiano (Toto Cutugno) - The Gypsy Queens
Juanes - La Camisa Negra
Jonathan and Charlotte - Britain's Got Talent 2012 Live Semi Final - U
John Powell - Assassin's Tango
Joe Cocker - You Can Leave Your Hat On (LIVE in Dortmund)
Joe Cocker - Unchain My Heart 2002 Live
Joe Cocker - A Whiter Shade Of Pale
Jay Z & Alicia Keys - Empire State of Mind LIVE
Jason Mraz - Im Yours (live)
Jarrod Radnich - Bohemian Rhapsody - Virtuosic Piano Solo
James Blunt - You're Beautiful
James Blunt - You're Beautiful & Bonfire Heart (Live at The Nobel Peac)
If You Go Away - Helen Merrill & Stan Getz (Tribute to Virna Lisi)
I'LL BE MISSING YOU
I Say a Little Prayer
Hotel California ( Eagles ) 1994 Live
Historia de un amor - Luz Casal. Vezi interpretarea Biancăi Sumanariu
Here Comes The Sun - The Beatles (Boyce Avenue acoustic cover) on Spot
Heart - Stairway to Heaven Led Zeppelin - Kennedy Center Honors
HAVANA by Camila Cabello Zumba Pre Cooldown TML Crew Kramer Pastra
HAUSER and Señorita - I Will Always Love You
HAUSER - Waka Waka
HAUSER - Sway
HAUSER - Lambada
HAUSER - Historia de un Amor
HAUSER - Despacito
Great Pretender
Georgia May Foote & Giovanni Pernice Samba to 'Volare' - Strictly Come
Gary Moore - Still Got The Blues
GIPSY KINGS VOLARE Penelope Cruz
Fugees - Killing Me Softly With His Song
French Latino - Historia de un Amor
For A Few Dollars More The Danish National Symphony Orchestra (Live)
Flashdance • What a Feeling • Irene Cara
Filip Rudan - “Someone You Loved” Audicija 4 The Voice Hrvatska Sez
Eric Clapton - Wonderful Tonight
Enya - Only Time
Enrique Iglesias - Bailando (English Version) ft. Sean Paul
Enrique Iglesias - Bailamos
Elena Yerevan Historia de un amor
Ed Sheeran - Shape of You (Official Music Video)
Ed Sheeran - Perfect Symphony [with Andrea Bocelli]
Ed Sheeran - Perfect (Official Music Video)
Easy On Me - Adele (Boyce Avenue 90’s style piano acoustic cover) on S
ERA - Ameno
ELENA YEREVAN- Cancion Del Mariachi-IN STUDIO-2017 DPR
Dust In The Wind - Kansas (Boyce Avenue acoustic cover)
Don't Let Me Be Misunderstood
Despacito x Shape Of You - Pentatonix
Deep Purple - Child In Time - Live (1970)
David Foster When A Man Loves A WomanIt's A Mans World (SealMichael Bo
Dance me to the end of Love ( Pi-Air Design )
Coolio - Gangsta's Paradise (feat. L.V.) [Official Music Video]
Conquest Of Paradise (Vangelis), played on Böhm Emporio organ
Cielito Lindo
Chico & The Gypsies - Bamboleo
Canción Del Mariachi - Antonio Banderas, Los Lobos • Desperado
Camila Cabello - Havana (Audio) ft. Young Thug
Camila Cabello - Havana ( cover by J.Fla )
California Dreamin' - The Mamas & The Papas José Feliciano (Boyce Ave
Buster Benton - Money Is The Name of The Game
Hallelujah Pentatonix
Bobby McFerrin - Don't Worry Be Happy (Official Music Video)
Bob Dylan - Knockin' On Heaven's Door Emilia The Voice Kids France
Besame Mucho - Cesaria Evora
Ben E. King - Stand by Me Sax Cover Alexandra Ilieva Thomann
Bella Ciao
Bella Ciao - INSTRUMENTAL
Beautiful in White x Canon in D (Piano Cover by Riyandi Kusuma)
Bad Romance - Vintage 1920's Gatsby Style Lady Gaga Cover ft. Ariana Savalas & Sarah Reich(1)
BELLA CIAO 2020 - KARAOKE ITALIANO
BAMBOLEO - Gipsy Kings • Antonio Banderas, Katya Virshilas
BAILANDO (original)
Awesome Ukrainian yodeler - SOFIA SHKIDCHENKO (with English subtitles)
Avicii - The Nights
Atom - The Great Gig in the Sky
Aretha Franklin - (You Make Me Feel Like) A Natural Woman (Official Ly
Antonio Banderas - Cancion del Mariachi (Desperado)
André Rieu - Zorba's Dance (Sirtaki)
André Rieu - Can't Help Falling In Love
André Rieu & Mirusia - Ave Maria
Andrew Reyes Elton John - Don't Let The Sun Go Down The Voice 2020 (
Andreas Kümmert Whiter Shade Of Pale The Voice of Germany 2013 Showd
And I Love You So
All About That Bass - Postmodern Jukebox European Tour Version
Alan Walker - Faded (Piano Cover)
Ain't No Sunshine -- Bill Withers (cover by Canen 12 y.o.)
African music
Adriana Vidović - “Creep” Audicija 4 The Voice Hrvatska Sezona 3
Adriana Vidović - “Believer” Nokaut 3 The Voice Hrvatska Sezona 3
A Fistful of Dollars - The Danish National Symphony Orchestra and Tuva
4 Beautiful Soundtracks Relaxing Piano [10min]
2CELLOS - Whole Lotta Love vs. Beethoven 5th Symphony [OFFICIAL VIDEO]
2CELLOS - Smooth Criminal (Live at Suntory Hall, Tokyo)
2CELLOS - Smells Like Teen Spirit [Live at Sydney Opera House]
2CELLOS - Despacito [OFFICIAL VIDEO]
13 Year Old Girl Playing Il Silenzio (The Silence) - André Rieu
094.All About That Bass
00 - SADNESS PART 1
(Ghost) Riders In the Sky (American Outlaws Live at Nassau Coliseum, 1
(Everything I Do) I Do It For You - Bryan Adams (Boyce Avenue ft. Conn
What a wonderful world
Moon river
×