London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Oct 20, 2025

A simple guide to the Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton by-elections

A simple guide to the Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton by-elections

Voters go to the polls on Thursday 23 June in two by-elections which could provide another damaging blow to Boris Johnson's authority.

The prime minister faces the prospect of losing two Conservative seats after the previous MPs were forced to resign because of scandals.

If the Conservatives lose both, it will increase the pressure on Mr Johnson from within his own party, just a fortnight after he survived a vote of confidence in his leadership.

What are by-elections and why are they happening?


A by-election is the process for electing a new member of parliament when a seat in the House of Commons becomes available outside of a general election. This could happen, for example, if an MP dies or resigns.

Tory MPs Neil Parish (left) and Imran Ahmad Khan were both forced to resign


In the case of Wakefield, former Conservative MP Imran Ahmad Khan stood down after being convicted of sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy in 2008. He was jailed for 18 months.

In Tiverton and Honiton, the seat became available when Tory MP Neil Parish resigned after admitting he had watched pornography on his phone twice while in the Commons chamber.

What do we know about the constituencies?


Wakefield, in West Yorkshire, was part of Labour's "red wall" which fell to the Conservatives in the 2019 general election.

It had been a Labour seat since 1932 but the area voted Leave in the 2016 EU referendum, and the Tories overturned Labour's 2,176-majority in 2019 with the "Get Brexit done" campaign slogan.

By contrast, Tiverton and Honiton in Devon has been a Conservative-voting area since the 1920s, although the seat boundaries have changed several times. The Tories won it with a majority of 24,239 votes in 2019.


The chart above shows how sharp the contrast is between the two constituencies - and just how different the challenge is for the Tories to keep hold of both seats.

On average, voters in Tiverton and Honiton are older and better paid than those in Wakefield, while the Yorkshire constituency has nearly double the rate of people on unemployment benefits.

What does the latest polling tell us?


While pollsters can get it wrong and constituency polling is especially challenging, the polls still don't paint a pretty picture for the Conservatives.

Two recent polls carried out in Wakefield had similar conclusions, with both suggesting that Labour have a lead of some 20 percentage points over the Conservatives.


There hasn't been any recent polling in Tiverton and Honiton, but the Lib Dems say their internal data shows they are trailing the Conservatives by just a couple of percentage points.

While it would be a big upset if the Lib Dems were to win there, they won in similar circumstances in Chesham and Amersham a year ago and in North Shropshire in December - which explains why there is some nervousness in Conservative ranks.

What will the results mean for Boris Johnson?


If the Tories were to lose both seats, the defeats would be at both ends of their political spectrum - seats they won from Labour in 2019 and seats that have been Conservative for decades.

If that's the case, nervous Tory MPs may conclude that Mr Johnson's electoral appeal is diminishing after months of coverage of Partygate and the cost-of-living crisis.


If Conservative MPs decide they want to change their leader before the next general election - which by law doesn't have to be held until January 2025 - their options are limited.

Party rules say they can't hold another confidence vote in Mr Johnson for a year after the previous vote, but there has been speculation the rules could be changed to allow another vote sooner.

One thing on the horizon that could make that rule change more likely is a report by Parliament's privileges committee into whether the prime minister misled the House of Commons over Partygate - and that's likely to come in the Autumn.

Results of the by-elections are due in the early hours of 24 June.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
"Sniper Position": Observation Post Targeting 'Air Force One' Found Before Trump’s Arrival in Florida
Shouting Match at the White House: 'Trump Cursed, Threw Maps, and Told Zelensky – "Putin Will Destroy You"'
Windows’ Own ‘Siri’ Has Arrived: You Can Now Talk to Your Computer
Thailand and Singapore Investigate Cambodian-Based Prince Group as U.S. and U.K. Sanctions Unfold
‘No Kings’ Protests Inflate Numbers — But History Shows Nations Collapse Without Strong Executive Power
Chinese Tech Giants Halt Stablecoin Launches After Beijing’s Regulatory Intervention
Manhattan Jury Holds BNP Paribas Liable for Enabling Sudanese Government Abuses
Trump Orders Immediate Release of Former Congressman George Santos After Commuting Prison Sentence
S&P Downgrades France’s Credit Rating, Citing Soaring Debt and Political Instability
Ofcom Rules BBC’s Gaza Documentary ‘Materially Misleading’ Over Narrator’s Hamas Ties
Diane Keaton’s Cause of Death Revealed as Pneumonia, Family Confirms
Former Lostprophets Frontman Ian Watkins Stabbed to Death in British Prison
"The Tsunami Is Coming, and It’s Massive": The World’s Richest Man Unveils a New AI Vision
Outsider, Heroine, Trailblazer: Diane Keaton Was Always a Little Strange — and Forever One of a Kind
Dramatic Development in the Death of 'Mango' Founder: Billionaire's Son Suspected of Murder
Two Years of Darkness: The Harrowing Testimonies of Israeli Hostages Emerging From Gaza Captivity
EU Moves to Use Frozen Russian Assets to Buy U.S. Weapons for Ukraine
Europe Emerges as the Biggest Casualty in U.S.-China Rare Earth Rivalry
HSBC Confronts Strategic Crossroads as NAB Seeks Only Retail Arm in Australia Exit
U.S. Chamber Sues Trump Over $100,000 H-1B Visa Fee
Shenzhen Expo Spotlights China’s Quantum Step in Semiconductor Self-Reliance
China Accelerates to the Forefront in Global Nuclear Fusion Race
Yachts, Private Jets, and a Picasso Painting: Exposed as 'One of the Largest Frauds in History'
Australia’s Wedgetail Spies Aid NATO Response as Russian MiGs Breach Estonian Airspace
McGowan Urges Chalmers to Cut Spending Over Tax Hike to Close $20 Billion Budget Gap
Victoria Orders Review of Transgender Prison Placement Amid Safety Concerns for Female Inmates
U.S. Treasury Mobilises New $20 Billion Debt Facility to Stabilise Argentina
French Business Leaders Decry Budget as Macron’s Pro-Enterprise Promise Undermined
Trump Claims Modi Pledged India Would End Russian Oil Imports Amid U.S. Tariff Pressure
Surging AI Startup Valuations Fuel Bubble Concerns Among Top Investors
Australian Punter Archie Wilson Tears Up During Nebraska Press Conference, Sparking Conversation on Male Vulnerability
Australia Confirms U.S. Access to Upgraded Submarine Shipyard Under AUKUS Deal
“Firepower” Promised for Ukraine as NATO Ministers Meet — But U.S. Tomahawks Remain Undecided
Brands Confront New Dilemma as Extremists Adopt Fashion Labels
The Sydney Sweeney and Jeans Storm: “The Outcome Surpassed Our Wildest Dreams”
Erika Kirk Delivers Moving Tribute at White House as Trump Awards Charlie Presidential Medal of Freedom
British Food Influencer ‘Big John’ Detained in Australia After Visa Dispute
ScamBodia: The Chinese Fraud Empire Shielded by Cambodia’s Ruling Elite
French PM Suspends Macron’s Pension Reform Until After 2027 in Bid to Stabilize Government
Orange, Bouygues and Free Make €17 Billion Bid for Drahi’s Altice France Telecom Assets
Dutch Government Seizes Chipmaker After U.S. Presses for Removal of Chinese CEO
Bessent Accuses China of Dragging Down Global Economy Amid New Trade Curbs
U.S. Revokes Visas of Foreign Nationals Who ‘Celebrated’ Charlie Kirk’s Assassination
AI and Cybersecurity at Forefront as GITEX Global 2025 Kicks Off in Dubai
DJI Loses Appeal to Remove Pentagon’s ‘Chinese Military Company’ Label
EU Deploys New Biometric Entry/Exit System: What Non-EU Travelers Must Know
Australian Prime Minister’s Private Number Exposed Through AI Contact Scraper
Ex-Microsoft Engineer Confirms Famous Windows XP Key Was Leaked Corporate License, Not a Hack
China’s lesson for the US: it takes more than chips to win the AI race
Australia Faces Demographic Risk as Fertility Falls to Record Low
×