London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Jun 20, 2025

A simple guide to the Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton by-elections

A simple guide to the Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton by-elections

Voters go to the polls on Thursday 23 June in two by-elections which could provide another damaging blow to Boris Johnson's authority.

The prime minister faces the prospect of losing two Conservative seats after the previous MPs were forced to resign because of scandals.

If the Conservatives lose both, it will increase the pressure on Mr Johnson from within his own party, just a fortnight after he survived a vote of confidence in his leadership.

What are by-elections and why are they happening?


A by-election is the process for electing a new member of parliament when a seat in the House of Commons becomes available outside of a general election. This could happen, for example, if an MP dies or resigns.

Tory MPs Neil Parish (left) and Imran Ahmad Khan were both forced to resign


In the case of Wakefield, former Conservative MP Imran Ahmad Khan stood down after being convicted of sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy in 2008. He was jailed for 18 months.

In Tiverton and Honiton, the seat became available when Tory MP Neil Parish resigned after admitting he had watched pornography on his phone twice while in the Commons chamber.

What do we know about the constituencies?


Wakefield, in West Yorkshire, was part of Labour's "red wall" which fell to the Conservatives in the 2019 general election.

It had been a Labour seat since 1932 but the area voted Leave in the 2016 EU referendum, and the Tories overturned Labour's 2,176-majority in 2019 with the "Get Brexit done" campaign slogan.

By contrast, Tiverton and Honiton in Devon has been a Conservative-voting area since the 1920s, although the seat boundaries have changed several times. The Tories won it with a majority of 24,239 votes in 2019.


The chart above shows how sharp the contrast is between the two constituencies - and just how different the challenge is for the Tories to keep hold of both seats.

On average, voters in Tiverton and Honiton are older and better paid than those in Wakefield, while the Yorkshire constituency has nearly double the rate of people on unemployment benefits.

What does the latest polling tell us?


While pollsters can get it wrong and constituency polling is especially challenging, the polls still don't paint a pretty picture for the Conservatives.

Two recent polls carried out in Wakefield had similar conclusions, with both suggesting that Labour have a lead of some 20 percentage points over the Conservatives.


There hasn't been any recent polling in Tiverton and Honiton, but the Lib Dems say their internal data shows they are trailing the Conservatives by just a couple of percentage points.

While it would be a big upset if the Lib Dems were to win there, they won in similar circumstances in Chesham and Amersham a year ago and in North Shropshire in December - which explains why there is some nervousness in Conservative ranks.

What will the results mean for Boris Johnson?


If the Tories were to lose both seats, the defeats would be at both ends of their political spectrum - seats they won from Labour in 2019 and seats that have been Conservative for decades.

If that's the case, nervous Tory MPs may conclude that Mr Johnson's electoral appeal is diminishing after months of coverage of Partygate and the cost-of-living crisis.


If Conservative MPs decide they want to change their leader before the next general election - which by law doesn't have to be held until January 2025 - their options are limited.

Party rules say they can't hold another confidence vote in Mr Johnson for a year after the previous vote, but there has been speculation the rules could be changed to allow another vote sooner.

One thing on the horizon that could make that rule change more likely is a report by Parliament's privileges committee into whether the prime minister misled the House of Commons over Partygate - and that's likely to come in the Autumn.

Results of the by-elections are due in the early hours of 24 June.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
16 Billion Login Credentials Leaked in Unprecedented Cybersecurity Breach
Senate hearing on who was 'really running' Biden White House kicks off
Iranian Military Officers Reportedly Seek Contact with Reza Pahlavi, Signal Intent to Defect
FBI and Senate Investigate Allegations of Chinese Plot to Influence the 2020 Election in Biden’s Favor Using Fake U.S. Driver’s Licenses
Vietnam Emerges as Luxury Yacht Destination for Ultra‑Rich
Plans to Sell Dutch Embassy in Bangkok Face Local Opposition
China's Iranian Oil Imports Face Disruption Amid Escalating Middle East Tensions
Trump's $5 Million 'Trump Card' Visa Program Draws Nearly 70,000 Applicants
DGCA Finds No Major Safety Concerns in Air India's Boeing 787 Fleet
Airlines Reroute Flights Amid Expanding Middle East Conflict Zones
Elon Musk's xAI Seeks $9.3 Billion in Funding Amid AI Expansion
Trump Demands Iran's Unconditional Surrender Amid Escalating Conflict
Israeli Airstrike Targets Iranian State TV in Central Tehran
President Trump is leaving the G7 summit early and has ordered the National Security Council to the Situation Room
Taiwan Imposes Export Ban on Chips to Huawei and SMIC
Israel has just announced plans to strike Tehran again, and in response, Trump has urged people to evacuate
Netanyahu Signals Potential Regime Change in Iran
Juncker Criticizes EU Inaction on Trump Tariffs
EU Proposes Ban on New Russian Gas Contracts
Analysts Warn Iran May Resort to Unconventional Warfare
Iranian Regime Faces Existential Threat Amid Conflict
Energy Infrastructure Becomes War Zone in Middle East
UK Home Secretary Apologizes Over Child Grooming Failures
Trump Organization Launches 5G Mobile Network and Golden Handset
Towcester Hosts 2025 English Greyhound Derby Amid Industry Scrutiny
Gary Oldman and David Beckham Knighted in King's Birthday Honours
Over 30,000 Lightning Strikes Recorded Across UK During Overnight Storms
Princess of Wales Returns to Public Duties at Trooping the Colour
Red Arrows Use Sustainable Fuel in Historic Trooping the Colour Flypast
Former Welsh First Minister Addresses Unionist Concerns Over Irish Language
Iran Signals Openness to Nuclear Negotiations Amid Ongoing Regional Tensions
France Bars Israeli Arms Companies from Paris Defense Expo
King Charles Leads Tribute to Air India Crash Victims at Trooping the Colour
Jack Pitchford Embarks on 200-Mile Walk to Support Stem Cell Charity
Surrey Hikers Take on Challenge of Climbing 11 Peaks in a Single Day
UK Deploys RAF Jets to Middle East Amid Israel-Iran Tensions
Two Skydivers Die in 'Tragic Accident' at Devon Airfield
Sainsbury's and Morrisons Accused of Displaying Prohibited Tobacco Ads
UK Launches National Inquiry into Grooming Gangs
Families Seek Closure After Air India Crash
Gold Emerges as Global Safe Haven Amid Uncertainty
Trump Reports $57 Million Earnings from Crypto Venture
Trump's Military Parade Sparks Concerns Over Authoritarianism
Nationwide 'No Kings' Protests Challenge Trump's Leadership
UK Deploys Jets to Middle East Amid Rising Tensions
Trump's Anti-War Stance Tested Amid Israel-Iran Conflict
Germany Holds First Veterans Celebration Since WWII
U.S. Health Secretary Dismisses CDC Vaccine Advisory Committee
Minnesota Lawmaker Melissa Hortman and Husband Killed in Targeted Attack; Senator John Hoffman and Wife Injured
Exiled Iranian Prince Reza Pahlavi Urges Overthrow of Khamenei Regime
×