London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Mar 05, 2026

A simple guide to the Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton by-elections

A simple guide to the Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton by-elections

Voters go to the polls on Thursday 23 June in two by-elections which could provide another damaging blow to Boris Johnson's authority.

The prime minister faces the prospect of losing two Conservative seats after the previous MPs were forced to resign because of scandals.

If the Conservatives lose both, it will increase the pressure on Mr Johnson from within his own party, just a fortnight after he survived a vote of confidence in his leadership.

What are by-elections and why are they happening?


A by-election is the process for electing a new member of parliament when a seat in the House of Commons becomes available outside of a general election. This could happen, for example, if an MP dies or resigns.

Tory MPs Neil Parish (left) and Imran Ahmad Khan were both forced to resign


In the case of Wakefield, former Conservative MP Imran Ahmad Khan stood down after being convicted of sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy in 2008. He was jailed for 18 months.

In Tiverton and Honiton, the seat became available when Tory MP Neil Parish resigned after admitting he had watched pornography on his phone twice while in the Commons chamber.

What do we know about the constituencies?


Wakefield, in West Yorkshire, was part of Labour's "red wall" which fell to the Conservatives in the 2019 general election.

It had been a Labour seat since 1932 but the area voted Leave in the 2016 EU referendum, and the Tories overturned Labour's 2,176-majority in 2019 with the "Get Brexit done" campaign slogan.

By contrast, Tiverton and Honiton in Devon has been a Conservative-voting area since the 1920s, although the seat boundaries have changed several times. The Tories won it with a majority of 24,239 votes in 2019.


The chart above shows how sharp the contrast is between the two constituencies - and just how different the challenge is for the Tories to keep hold of both seats.

On average, voters in Tiverton and Honiton are older and better paid than those in Wakefield, while the Yorkshire constituency has nearly double the rate of people on unemployment benefits.

What does the latest polling tell us?


While pollsters can get it wrong and constituency polling is especially challenging, the polls still don't paint a pretty picture for the Conservatives.

Two recent polls carried out in Wakefield had similar conclusions, with both suggesting that Labour have a lead of some 20 percentage points over the Conservatives.


There hasn't been any recent polling in Tiverton and Honiton, but the Lib Dems say their internal data shows they are trailing the Conservatives by just a couple of percentage points.

While it would be a big upset if the Lib Dems were to win there, they won in similar circumstances in Chesham and Amersham a year ago and in North Shropshire in December - which explains why there is some nervousness in Conservative ranks.

What will the results mean for Boris Johnson?


If the Tories were to lose both seats, the defeats would be at both ends of their political spectrum - seats they won from Labour in 2019 and seats that have been Conservative for decades.

If that's the case, nervous Tory MPs may conclude that Mr Johnson's electoral appeal is diminishing after months of coverage of Partygate and the cost-of-living crisis.


If Conservative MPs decide they want to change their leader before the next general election - which by law doesn't have to be held until January 2025 - their options are limited.

Party rules say they can't hold another confidence vote in Mr Johnson for a year after the previous vote, but there has been speculation the rules could be changed to allow another vote sooner.

One thing on the horizon that could make that rule change more likely is a report by Parliament's privileges committee into whether the prime minister misled the House of Commons over Partygate - and that's likely to come in the Autumn.

Results of the by-elections are due in the early hours of 24 June.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Iceland Supermarket Drops Trademark Challenge Against Icelandic Government in Long-Running Naming Dispute
UK Defence Secretary Visits Cyprus Following Scrutiny of Britain’s Response to Drone Attacks
Questions Grow Over Britain’s Military Readiness as Response to Iran Conflict Draws Scrutiny
UK Offers Failed Asylum Seeker Families Up to Forty Thousand Pounds to Leave Voluntarily
Saharan Dust Could Bring ‘Blood Rain’ to Parts of the UK as Weather Systems Shift
UK Deploys Additional Typhoon Fighter Jets to Qatar and Helicopters to Cyprus Amid Rising Middle East Tensions
Experts Urge Britain to Accelerate Renewable Energy Push as Global Conflicts Drive Up Costs
British Public Shows Strong Reluctance to Join Wider War in Iran
First UK Evacuation Flight Departs Middle East After Lengthy Delay
United Kingdom Imposes New Visa Requirements on Travelers from St. Lucia and Nicaragua
Iran Conflict Strains U.S.–U.K. Alliance as Trump and Starmer Clash Over Military Strategy
UK Interest Rates Could Rise Above Four Percent Again if Energy Shock Continues, Think Tank Warns
Starmer Defends Britain’s Iran Strategy as Badenoch Urges Stronger Military Support
Labour MP Says She Saw No Sign Husband Broke Law After Arrest in China Espionage Investigation
UK Jobless Rate Overtakes Italy’s for First Time in Years as Labour Market Weakens
United Kingdom Suspends Student Visas for Four Countries in Unprecedented Immigration Move
Campaigners Warn UK Student Visa Ban Could Push Migrants Toward Dangerous Channel Crossings
First U.K. Charter Flight for Stranded Nationals Set to Depart Oman Amid Middle East Crisis
France and United Kingdom Deploy Warships to Eastern Mediterranean as Middle East Conflict Escalates
U.K. Arrests Three Men Including Lawmaker’s Partner in Suspected China Espionage Investigation
Trump Says UK–US ‘Special Relationship’ Is Diminished Amid Middle East Dispute
UK Economic Forecasts Face Fresh Strain from Middle East Conflict and Rising Energy Costs
UK Reaffirms Close US Ties After Trump’s Public Criticism
Reeves Stresses Stability and Fiscal Discipline in UK Budget Update as Growth Outlook Shifts
UK Deploys Royal Navy Destroyer HMS Dragon to Cyprus After Drone Strike on RAF Base
Green Party Surges Past Labour in New UK Poll as Traditional Party Support Crumbles
Majority of Britons Oppose U.S. Use of UK Military Bases in Iran Conflict
UK Intensifies Evacuation Efforts from Oman, Working with Airlines to Boost Flight Capacity
Trump Condemns UK and Spain in Unusually Sharp Rift Over Iran Military Action
Trump Repeats UK Claims That Diverge from Verified Facts Amid Diplomatic Strain
UK Arrests Prominent Figures Linked to Epstein Network as Questions Mount Over US Action
Trump Says UK ‘Took Far Too Long’ to Approve Use of Airbases for Iran Strikes
Scope of Britain’s Role in the Expanding Middle East Conflict Comes Under Scrutiny
Trump Says He Is ‘Very Disappointed’ in Starmer Over Iran Comments
U.S. Embassy in Riyadh Struck by Drones Amid Escalating Iran Conflict
Starmer Confronts Strategic Test After Drone Strike Near British Base in Cyprus
Rolls-Royce Chief Signals Openness to Germany Joining UK-Led Fighter Jet Programme
UK Stocks Slip as Escalating Iran Conflict Triggers Global Market Selloff
UK Overhauls Asylum System to Make Refugee Status Temporary
Starmer Warns of ‘Reckless’ Iranian Strikes Amid Escalating Regional Tensions
British Base in Cyprus Targeted as Drones Intercepted Amid Expanding Iran Conflict
Starmer Diverges from Trump on Iran Strategy, Rejects ‘Regime Change from the Skies’
U.S. and Israel Intensify Strikes on Iran as Conflict Expands to Lebanon and Gulf States
Violent Pro-Iranian Protesters Storm U.S. Consulate in Karachi
Missile Debris Sparks Fires at Dubai’s Jebel Ali Port Near Palm Jumeirah
Iran Strikes U.S. Fifth Fleet Headquarters in Bahrain Amid Wider Gulf Retaliation
When the State Replaces the Parent: How Gender Policy Is Redefining Custody and Coercion
Bill Clinton Denies Knowing Woman in Hot Tub Photo During Closed-Door Epstein Deposition
Former U.S. President Bill Clinton Testifies on Ties to Jeffrey Epstein Before Congressional Oversight Committee
Dyson Reaches Settlement in Landmark UK Forced Labour Case
×