London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Mar 13, 2026

A simple guide to the Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton by-elections

A simple guide to the Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton by-elections

Voters go to the polls on Thursday 23 June in two by-elections which could provide another damaging blow to Boris Johnson's authority.

The prime minister faces the prospect of losing two Conservative seats after the previous MPs were forced to resign because of scandals.

If the Conservatives lose both, it will increase the pressure on Mr Johnson from within his own party, just a fortnight after he survived a vote of confidence in his leadership.

What are by-elections and why are they happening?


A by-election is the process for electing a new member of parliament when a seat in the House of Commons becomes available outside of a general election. This could happen, for example, if an MP dies or resigns.

Tory MPs Neil Parish (left) and Imran Ahmad Khan were both forced to resign


In the case of Wakefield, former Conservative MP Imran Ahmad Khan stood down after being convicted of sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy in 2008. He was jailed for 18 months.

In Tiverton and Honiton, the seat became available when Tory MP Neil Parish resigned after admitting he had watched pornography on his phone twice while in the Commons chamber.

What do we know about the constituencies?


Wakefield, in West Yorkshire, was part of Labour's "red wall" which fell to the Conservatives in the 2019 general election.

It had been a Labour seat since 1932 but the area voted Leave in the 2016 EU referendum, and the Tories overturned Labour's 2,176-majority in 2019 with the "Get Brexit done" campaign slogan.

By contrast, Tiverton and Honiton in Devon has been a Conservative-voting area since the 1920s, although the seat boundaries have changed several times. The Tories won it with a majority of 24,239 votes in 2019.


The chart above shows how sharp the contrast is between the two constituencies - and just how different the challenge is for the Tories to keep hold of both seats.

On average, voters in Tiverton and Honiton are older and better paid than those in Wakefield, while the Yorkshire constituency has nearly double the rate of people on unemployment benefits.

What does the latest polling tell us?


While pollsters can get it wrong and constituency polling is especially challenging, the polls still don't paint a pretty picture for the Conservatives.

Two recent polls carried out in Wakefield had similar conclusions, with both suggesting that Labour have a lead of some 20 percentage points over the Conservatives.


There hasn't been any recent polling in Tiverton and Honiton, but the Lib Dems say their internal data shows they are trailing the Conservatives by just a couple of percentage points.

While it would be a big upset if the Lib Dems were to win there, they won in similar circumstances in Chesham and Amersham a year ago and in North Shropshire in December - which explains why there is some nervousness in Conservative ranks.

What will the results mean for Boris Johnson?


If the Tories were to lose both seats, the defeats would be at both ends of their political spectrum - seats they won from Labour in 2019 and seats that have been Conservative for decades.

If that's the case, nervous Tory MPs may conclude that Mr Johnson's electoral appeal is diminishing after months of coverage of Partygate and the cost-of-living crisis.


If Conservative MPs decide they want to change their leader before the next general election - which by law doesn't have to be held until January 2025 - their options are limited.

Party rules say they can't hold another confidence vote in Mr Johnson for a year after the previous vote, but there has been speculation the rules could be changed to allow another vote sooner.

One thing on the horizon that could make that rule change more likely is a report by Parliament's privileges committee into whether the prime minister misled the House of Commons over Partygate - and that's likely to come in the Autumn.

Results of the by-elections are due in the early hours of 24 June.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Asian Energy Security Tested as Strait of Hormuz Disruption Threatens Oil Supplies
Iran Sets Three Conditions for Ending Regional War as Diplomatic Efforts Intensify
Tesla Secures Approval to Supply Electricity Directly to Homes Across Britain
Prince William Delivers Tribute to Australia’s Naval Alliance Amid Renewed Royal Spotlight on the Country
UK Foreign Secretary Travels to Saudi Arabia to Reinforce Support for Regional Allies
Putin’s ‘Hidden Hand’ May Be Assisting Iran in Conflict With Trump, UK Defence Secretary Warns
UK Sets April Deadline for Tech Platforms to Strengthen Online Protections for Children
Elon Musk Moves Into Britain’s Energy Market as Tesla Wins Licence to Supply Power
UK Watchdog Warns Fuel Retailers Against Profiteering Amid Iran War Price Surge
Report Claims Iran Used UK Charity Network to Expand Influence
United States and United Kingdom Establish Joint Standards for Counter-Drone Technology
Iran May Be Laying Naval Mines in Strait of Hormuz, UK Warns Amid Escalating Gulf Tensions
US Deploys Bunker-Buster Bombs to UK Airbase as Iran Conflict Intensifies
British Troops in Iraq Intercept Iranian Drones Targeting Coalition Base
Release of Mandelson Files Raises Tensions as UK Seeks Stable Relations With Donald Trump
UK Documents Reveal Starmer Was Warned About Mandelson’s Epstein Links Before Ambassador Appointment
Nearly Five Hundred UK Mortgage Deals Withdrawn in Two Days as Market Volatility Forces Lenders to Reprice
Three Cargo Ships Hit Near Iran as Attacks Spread to Strategic Strait of Hormuz
Why British Police Repeatedly Declined to Investigate Jeffrey Epstein’s UK Links
UK Parliament Ends Hereditary Seats in House of Lords, Closing Chapter on Centuries of Aristocratic Lawmaking
EU and UK Urge Israel to Act Against Rising West Bank Settler Violence Amid Regional Tensions
US Senator John Kennedy Says Keir Starmer Should Not Be Trusted for Military Advice Amid Iran War Debate
UK High Court Rejects Attempt to Revive Terrorism Charge Against Kneecap Rapper
Revolut Secures Full UK Banking Licence After Multi-Year Regulatory Wait
Kentucky’s Bench Boost Powers Wildcats Past LSU in SEC Tournament Opener
British Couple Die After Being Pulled From Water at Australian Beach During Family Visit
Global Energy Agency Announces Record Release of 400 Million Barrels to Stabilize Oil Markets Amid Hormuz Disruption
British Airways Suspends UK Repatriation Flights as Middle East Travel Disruption Deepens
US Forces Prepare Ordnance at RAF Fairford as Strategic Bombers Deploy for Middle East Operations
Nigel Farage Faces Criticism After Saying Britain Should Stay Out of Iran War
Landmark UK Trial Begins Over Sony’s PlayStation Store Pricing
UK High Court Rejects Bid to Challenge Britain’s Chagos Islands Agreement With Mauritius
Finnish Duo Triumphs in England’s Annual Wife-Carrying Race, Winning a Barrel of Ale
How U.S. and UK National Security Strategies Are Reshaping the Global Business Landscape
Green Party Gains Momentum as Labour Shifts Toward the Political Centre
Royal Navy Destroyer HMS Dragon Sets Sail for Eastern Mediterranean as Regional Tensions Rise
UK Homebuilder Persimmon Warns Iran Conflict Could Dent Property Buyer Confidence
Roman Abramovich Signals Legal Fight if UK Seeks to Seize Chelsea Sale Funds
UK Ready to Back Emergency Oil Reserve Release as Middle East Conflict Pushes Prices Higher
Study of 40,000 Articles Sparks Debate Over Alleged Anti-Muslim Bias in UK Media
US and UK Army Chiefs Strengthen Cooperation on the Future of Armored Warfare
Britain’s Search for the Next ARM Intensifies as Startups and Investors Target the Semiconductor Frontier
Three US Strategic Bombers Arrive at RAF Fairford as Iran Conflict Intensifies
Cancer Death Rates in the UK Fall to the Lowest Level on Record
UK Government Bond Yields Retreat Slightly After Sharp Spike Triggered by Middle East Conflict
UK Chancellor Warns Middle East War Could Push Inflation Higher
UK Prime Minister Warns Iran Conflict Could Drive Up Prices and Threaten Economic Stability
Trump Declines UK Offer to Deploy Aircraft Carriers to Middle East Amid Iran Conflict
Prince Harry and Meghan Markle to Return to Australia After Seven Years for Philanthropic and Business Engagements
UK Government Signals Independence From Washington as Cooper Says Britain Does Not Agree With Trump on Every Issue
×