London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Jul 10, 2025

COVID-19 infection rate plummets in England, two studies reveal

COVID-19 infection rate plummets in England, two studies reveal

Experts welcome the drop - but say the research "lays bare unacceptable socioeconomic and ethnic inequalities within our society".

Two wide-scale COVID-19 surveys have found that cases are falling in England, confirming that lockdown is working to suppress the virus.

Imperial College London's REACT study - one of the largest and most authoritative on coronavirus - found that infections had fallen by more than two-thirds since the last time it reported in mid-January.

Public Health England's weekly surveillance report also indicated that infections and hospital admissions fell across all regions between 8 and 14 February.

Last time it did the survey, REACT found that 1 in 63 people currently had coronavirus. But following the latest research, it estimates that one in 196 people are infected.

This means that infections are now at a similar level to where they were when REACT reported in September.

The researchers estimate that the national R number for England is between 0.69 and 0.76, meaning the outbreak is decreasing across the country.

Meanwhile, PHE's surveillance report shows that case rates dropped in all age groups and across all regions, with the highest rate of infection among 30 to 39-year-olds at 192.5 per 100,000.

Case rates are now lowest in the South West at 87.4 per 100,000 and highest in the East Midlands at 176.7 per 100,000.

Hospital admissions for the virus have dropped from 19.4 per 100,000 in the previous week to 14.64 during the latest week.

The highest numbers of hospital admissions are in the West Midlands, at a rate of 20.58, the survey shows.

Dr Yvonne Doyle, PHE's medical director, cautioned that infection levels were still higher than in September.

"The number of new infections is higher than the end of September and remains concerning. This could increase very quickly if we do not follow the current measures," she said.

But she added: "Our efforts are working as case rates, hospitalisation rates and deaths are slowly falling."

Professor Paul Elliott, director of the programme at Imperial, called the REACT results "encouraging", saying they showed that "lockdown measures are effectively bringing infections down".

He added: "It's reassuring that the reduction in numbers of infections occurred in all ages and in most regions across the country."

This uniform decrease in age groups means that there is no evidence that the vaccination programme is behind the fall in infections. If that was the case, the researchers said, they would expect to see a bigger drop among people aged 65 and over.

REACT tested more than 85,000 volunteers between 4 and 13 of February to examine levels of infection in the general population.

Its large size makes its findings significant, as does the fact that it had previously reported no drop in infections 10 days into lockdown.

However, the researchers warned that although the trend was good, the level of cases was still too high for comfort, as lots of patients continued to be admitted into hospital.

They warned that any route out of lockdown needed to be "closely monitored". The prime minister is due to set out his roadmap for releasing restrictions on 22 February.

Experts welcomed the news, but said the REACT study posed questions for Boris Johnson ahead of his announcement, because it indicated possible regional and ethnic inequalities in the fall in cases.

The researchers found that "large household size, living in a deprived neighbourhood, and Asian ethnicity were all associated with increased prevalence".

Dr Tom Wingfield, Senior Clinical Lecturer and Honorary Consultant Physician at the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, said: "This again lays bare the unacceptable socioeconomic and ethnic inequalities within our society.

"In retrospect, the easing of lockdown restrictions after the first COVID-19 wave in 2020 was too early and took place at a time when the NHS Test and Trace system had limited coverage and was not functioning optimally.

"We need to learn from this as we lift the current lockdown measures and not make the same mistakes again."

According to REACT, although the number of infections fell everywhere, the biggest fall was in the south, with a very dramatic fall in London.

The areas with the highest prevalence are now the North West and North East. In the North East, the REACT team estimate that R is probably above 1.

This repeats the pattern that emerged following the first lockdown, although experts noted that the other large infection survey, which is conducted by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), did not find a similar regional trend.

"These regional differences are something to keep an eye on as more data emerge from REACT and from the ONS survey," said Professor Kevin McConway, Emeritus Professor of Applied Statistics at The Open University.

"We're so lucky here to have both of these surveys, that provide relatively unbiased estimates of infections across England, so that we can see how they compare.

"Most countries of the world don't even have one such survey."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Severe Heatwave Claims 2,300 Lives Across Europe
NVIDIA Achieves Historic Milestone as First Company Valued at $4 Trillion
Declining Beer Consumption Signals Cultural Shift in Germany
Linda Yaccarino Steps Down as CEO of X After Two Years
US Imposes New Tariffs on Brazilian Exports Amid Political Tensions
Azerbaijan and Armenia are on the brink of a historic peace deal.
Emails Leaked: How Passenger Luggage Became a Side Income for Airport Workers
Polish MEP: “Dear Leftists - China is laughing at you, Russia is laughing, India is laughing”
BRICS Expands Membership with Indonesia and Ten New Partner Countries
Weinstein Victim’s Lawyer Says MeToo Movement Still Strong
U.S. Enacts Sweeping Tax and Spending Legislation Amid Trade Policy Shifts
Football Mourns as Diogo Jota and Brother André Silva Laid to Rest in Portugal
Labour Expected to Withdraw Support for Special Needs Funding Model
Leaked Audio Reveals Tory Aide Defending DEI Record
Elon Musk Founds a Party Following a Poll on X: "You Wanted It – You Got It!"
London Stock Exchange Faces Historic Low in Initial Public Offerings
A new online platform has emerged in the United Kingdom, specifically targeting Muslim men seeking virgin brides
Trump Celebrates Independence Day with B-2 Flyover and Signs Controversial Legislation
Boris Johnson Urges Conservatives to Ignore Farage
SNP Ordered to Update Single-Sex Space Guidance Within Days
Starmer Set to Reject Calls for Wealth Taxes
Stolen Century-Old Rolls-Royce Recovered After Hotel Theft
Macron Presses Starmer to Recognise Palestinian State
Labour Delayed Palestine Action Ban Over Riot Concerns
Swinney’s Tax Comments ‘Offensive to Scots’, Say Tories
High Street Retailers to Enforce Bans on Serial Shoplifters
Music Banned by Henry VIII to Be Performed After 500 Years
Steve Coogan Says Working Class Is Being ‘Ethnically Cleansed’
Home Office Admits Uncertainty Over Visa Overstayer Numbers
JD Vance Questions Mandelson Over Reform Party’s Rising Popularity
Macron to Receive Windsor Carriage Ride in Royal Gesture
Labour Accused of ‘Hammering’ Scots During First Year in Power
BBC Head of Music Stood Down Amid Bob Vylan Controversy
Corbyn Eyes Hard-Left Challenge to Starmer’s Leadership
London Tube Trains Suspended After Major Fire Erupts Nearby
Richard Kemp: I Felt Safer in Israel Under Attack Than in the UK
Cyclist Says Police Cited Human Rights Act for Riding No-Handed
China’s Central Bank Consults European Peers on Low-Rate Strategies
AI Raises Alarms Over Long-Term Job Security
Saudi Arabia Maintains Ties with Iran Despite Israel Conflict
Musk Battles to Protect Tesla Amid Trump Policy Threats
Air France-KLM Acquires Majority Stake in Scandinavian Airlines
UK Educators Sound Alarm on Declining Child Literacy
Shein Fined €40 Million in France Over Misleading Discounts
Brazil’s Lula Visits Kirchner During Argentina House Arrest
Trump Scores Legislative Win as House Passes Tax Reform Bill
Keir Starmer Faces Criticism After Rocky First Year in Power
DJI Launches Heavy-Duty Coaxial Quadcopter with 80 kg Lift Capacity
U.S. Senate Approves Major Legislation Dubbed the 'Big Beautiful Bill'
Largest Healthcare Fraud Takedown in U.S. History Announced by DOJ
×