London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Apr 11, 2026

COVID-19 infection rate plummets in England, two studies reveal

COVID-19 infection rate plummets in England, two studies reveal

Experts welcome the drop - but say the research "lays bare unacceptable socioeconomic and ethnic inequalities within our society".

Two wide-scale COVID-19 surveys have found that cases are falling in England, confirming that lockdown is working to suppress the virus.

Imperial College London's REACT study - one of the largest and most authoritative on coronavirus - found that infections had fallen by more than two-thirds since the last time it reported in mid-January.

Public Health England's weekly surveillance report also indicated that infections and hospital admissions fell across all regions between 8 and 14 February.

Last time it did the survey, REACT found that 1 in 63 people currently had coronavirus. But following the latest research, it estimates that one in 196 people are infected.

This means that infections are now at a similar level to where they were when REACT reported in September.

The researchers estimate that the national R number for England is between 0.69 and 0.76, meaning the outbreak is decreasing across the country.

Meanwhile, PHE's surveillance report shows that case rates dropped in all age groups and across all regions, with the highest rate of infection among 30 to 39-year-olds at 192.5 per 100,000.

Case rates are now lowest in the South West at 87.4 per 100,000 and highest in the East Midlands at 176.7 per 100,000.

Hospital admissions for the virus have dropped from 19.4 per 100,000 in the previous week to 14.64 during the latest week.

The highest numbers of hospital admissions are in the West Midlands, at a rate of 20.58, the survey shows.

Dr Yvonne Doyle, PHE's medical director, cautioned that infection levels were still higher than in September.

"The number of new infections is higher than the end of September and remains concerning. This could increase very quickly if we do not follow the current measures," she said.

But she added: "Our efforts are working as case rates, hospitalisation rates and deaths are slowly falling."

Professor Paul Elliott, director of the programme at Imperial, called the REACT results "encouraging", saying they showed that "lockdown measures are effectively bringing infections down".

He added: "It's reassuring that the reduction in numbers of infections occurred in all ages and in most regions across the country."

This uniform decrease in age groups means that there is no evidence that the vaccination programme is behind the fall in infections. If that was the case, the researchers said, they would expect to see a bigger drop among people aged 65 and over.

REACT tested more than 85,000 volunteers between 4 and 13 of February to examine levels of infection in the general population.

Its large size makes its findings significant, as does the fact that it had previously reported no drop in infections 10 days into lockdown.

However, the researchers warned that although the trend was good, the level of cases was still too high for comfort, as lots of patients continued to be admitted into hospital.

They warned that any route out of lockdown needed to be "closely monitored". The prime minister is due to set out his roadmap for releasing restrictions on 22 February.

Experts welcomed the news, but said the REACT study posed questions for Boris Johnson ahead of his announcement, because it indicated possible regional and ethnic inequalities in the fall in cases.

The researchers found that "large household size, living in a deprived neighbourhood, and Asian ethnicity were all associated with increased prevalence".

Dr Tom Wingfield, Senior Clinical Lecturer and Honorary Consultant Physician at the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, said: "This again lays bare the unacceptable socioeconomic and ethnic inequalities within our society.

"In retrospect, the easing of lockdown restrictions after the first COVID-19 wave in 2020 was too early and took place at a time when the NHS Test and Trace system had limited coverage and was not functioning optimally.

"We need to learn from this as we lift the current lockdown measures and not make the same mistakes again."

According to REACT, although the number of infections fell everywhere, the biggest fall was in the south, with a very dramatic fall in London.

The areas with the highest prevalence are now the North West and North East. In the North East, the REACT team estimate that R is probably above 1.

This repeats the pattern that emerged following the first lockdown, although experts noted that the other large infection survey, which is conducted by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), did not find a similar regional trend.

"These regional differences are something to keep an eye on as more data emerge from REACT and from the ONS survey," said Professor Kevin McConway, Emeritus Professor of Applied Statistics at The Open University.

"We're so lucky here to have both of these surveys, that provide relatively unbiased estimates of infections across England, so that we can see how they compare.

"Most countries of the world don't even have one such survey."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Starmer and Trump Hold Strategic Talks on Securing Strait of Hormuz Amid Rising Tensions
Unofficial Australia Visit by Prince Harry and Meghan Expected to Stir Tensions with Royal Circles
Pipeline Attack Cuts Significant Share of Saudi Arabia’s Oil Export Capacity
UK Stocks Rise on Ceasefire Momentum and Renewed Focus on Diplomacy
UK to Hold Further Strategic Talks on Strait of Hormuz Security
Starmer Voices Frustration as Global Tensions Drive Up UK Energy Costs
UK Students Voice Concern Over Proposal for Automatic Military Draft Registration
Rising Volatility Drives Uncertainty in UK Fuel and Petrol Prices
UK Moves to Deploy ‘Skyhammer’ Anti-Drone System to Strengthen Airspace Defense
New Analysis Explores UK Budget Mechanics in ‘Behind the Blue’ Feature
Man Arrested After Four Die in Channel Crossing Tragedy
UK Tightens Immigration Framework with New Sponsor Rules and Fee Increases
UK Foreign Secretary Highlights Impact of Intensified Strikes in Lebanon
UK Urges Inclusion of Lebanon in US-Iran Ceasefire Framework
UK Stocks Ease as Ceasefire Doubts in Middle East Weigh on Investor Confidence
UK Reassesses Cloud Strategy Amid Criticism Over Limited Support Measures
UK Calls for Full and Toll-Free Access Through Strait of Hormuz Amid Rising Tensions
Starmer Signals Strategic Shift for Britain Amid Escalating Iran-Linked Tensions
UK Issues Firm Warning to Russia Over Covert Underwater Military Activity
OpenAI Halts Stargate UK Project, Casting Uncertainty Over Britain’s AI Expansion Plans
Starmer Voices Frustration Over Global Pressures Driving UK Energy Costs Higher
UK Deploys Military Assets to Protect Undersea Cables From Suspected Russian Threat
Canada Aligns With US, UK and Australia as Europe Prepares Major Digital Border Overhaul
Meghan Markle’s Planned Australia Appearance Sparks Fresh Speculation
Starmer Warns Sustained Effort Needed to Ensure US–Iran Ceasefire Holds
UK to Partner with Shipping Industry to Rebuild Confidence in Strait of Hormuz, Cooper Says
UK Interest Rate Expectations Ease Following US–Iran Ceasefire Agreement
Starmer Signals Major Effort Needed to Fully Reopen Strait of Hormuz During Gulf Visit
UK Fuel Prices Face Ongoing Volatility Amid Global Pressures and Domestic Factors
Kanye West’s Planned Italy Festival Appearance Draws Debate After UK Entry Ban
Smuggling Routes Shift Toward Belgium as Migrant Crossings to UK Evolve
Ceasefire Offers Potential Relief for UK Fuel and Food Prices Amid Ongoing Uncertainty
Iran Conflict Raises Questions Over UK’s Global Influence and Military Preparedness
Senator McConnell Visits Kentucky to Highlight Federal Investment in Local Projects
Kanye West Barred from Entering UK as Legal Grounds Come into Focus
UK Denies Visa to Kanye West After Sponsors Withdraw from Wireless Festival
Trump-Era Forest Service Restructuring Leads to Closure of UK Lab Focused on Kentucky Woodland Health
Foreign Students in the UK Describe Harsh Living Conditions and Financial Pressures
Reform UK Proposes Visa Restrictions on Nations Pursuing Reparations Claims
Public Reaction Divides Over UK Decision to Bar Kanye West
Calls Grow for UK to Review US Base Access Following Concerns Over Escalating Rhetoric
UK Indicates It Will Not Permit Use of Its Bases for Potential US Strikes on Iran’s Energy Infrastructure
UK Prime Minister Defends Decision to Bar Kanye West, Questions Festival Booking
UK Accelerates Efforts to Harmonise Medical Technology Rules with United States
Wireless Festival Cancelled After Kanye West Denied Entry to the United Kingdom
Australia’s most decorated living soldier was arrested at Sydney Airport and charged with five counts of war-crime murder for the killing of unarmed Afghan civilians
The CIA’s Secret Technology That Can Find You by Your Heartbeat Successfully Locates Downed Airman
Operation Europe: Trump Deploys Vance to Hungary to Save the EU
King Charles Faces Criticism From Some UK Christians Over Absence of Easter Message
Former UK Defence Secretary Raises Concerns Over Ability to Counter Iran Missile Threat
×