London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Sunday, Nov 09, 2025

Who gets to take part in opinion polls?

In the run-up to the general election, we will hear a lot more about how the parties are doing in the opinion polls and who the next government might be.

But how do the polls work, whose opinions are asked and how valuable are the results?


What is an opinion poll?

Opinion polls provide a snapshot of people's views on a particular issue. They are widely used when elections are approaching.

People may be asked things like which party they would vote for, their views on party leaders and which issues most concern them.

Opinion polls can be useful to see how different parties are doing, but they may not reflect the make-up of the next Parliament.

The UK's first-past-the-post voting system means that the local candidate in each constituency who receives the most votes becomes an MP. And the party with the most winning candidates nationally normally forms a government.

So, a party that is predicted to have 10% more of the vote than its main rival, for example, will not always end up with 10% more MPs.


How accurate are the results?

They are not perfect, but the average of errors on polls going back more than 70 years is only a couple of points, says Will Jennings of the University of Southampton.

Over the last few elections, 90% of polls conducted just before the election have been within four percentage points of the vote share for the major parties.

During this general election campaign, the clear trend has been the Conservatives and Labour going up - and the Brexit Party and Lib Dems going down.


What happened in recent elections?

Poll results were criticised after both the 2015 and 2017 general elections.

A review by the British Polling Council said that polls before the 2015 vote were among the most inaccurate since surveying began. They failed to predict the Conservative Party's majority win and over-represented Labour voters.

The review suggested the main reason was unrepresentative sampling.

Two years later, the opinion polls all suggested a clear Conservative lead over Labour in the run-up to the election. While the Tories did win, it was without the predicted majority.

The polls were right about theirs and the Lib Dems' vote share, but they were wrong about Labour's. It was also thought that an assumption of a low turnout from younger voters was wrong.


Who takes part in opinion polls?

The number of people questioned varies from poll to poll.

Most political polls ask between 1,000 and 2,000 people. However, to be involved you usually need to have signed up to be on a survey panel, unless the poll is conducted by phone or in person.

People do not join these panels specifically to give their views on politics. Many will only ever be questioned on issues like their views on the best pizza delivery firm or where they go on holiday.

But the panels are also generally where the opinion poll companies collect their views at election time.

The panels can be very big - some containing up to one million participants. However, the actual number of people actively taking part on a regular basis may be only about 25% of such a total.

People are given various incentives, such as shopping vouchers or a small financial reward, for doing the surveys.


What makes a poll representative of the country?

Many people will never be asked questions by pollsters, but this does not mean that polls are not accurate.

Two methods of ensuring that polls represent the voice of the nation are random sampling and quota sampling.

The random way involves pulling out people's contact details from a list and contacting them.

Quota sampling means having certain numbers of people of certain ages, genders and locations taking part in a survey.

During this election campaign YouGov published a poll based on the views of 100,000 voters, applying national trends to individual constituencies.

The results of polls can often be released very quickly. A poll can be finished in the afternoon and the results published later that evening.


How does the BBC report opinion polls?

Polls are helpful for tracking changes in support for the different political parties. But they can only ever provide an approximate picture and shouldn't be treated as a reliable guide to what will happen in the election.

It's particularly important to look at long-term trends - rather than focusing on individual polls.

The BBC has strict rules about this. So you will never see the result of a poll in the headlines of a TV news bulletin for example.

Instead we look at the polls over time in the BBC poll tracker. That takes in all voting intention polls published by members of the British Polling Council.

The BBC's aim is to try to smooth out specific errors in any individual poll. However, it's still possible for all of the polls to be systematically inaccurate. So even the tracker should be treated with the right degree of caution.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Tom Cruise Arrives by Helicopter at UK Scientology Fundraiser Amid Local Protests
Prince Andrew and Sarah Ferguson Face Fresh UK Probes Amid Royal Fallout
Mothers Link Teen Suicides to AI Chatbots in Growing Legal Battle
UK Government to Mirror Denmark’s Tough Immigration Framework in Major Policy Shift
UK Government Turns to Denmark-Style Immigration Reforms to Overhaul Border Rules
UK Chancellor Warned Against Cutting Insulation Funding as Budget Looms
UK Tenant Complaints Hit Record Levels as Rental Sector Faces Mounting Pressure
Apple to Pay Google About One Billion Dollars Annually for Gemini AI to Power Next-Generation Siri
UK Signals Major Shift as Nuclear Arms Race Looms
BBC’s « Celebrity Traitors UK » Finale Breaks Records with 11.1 Million Viewers
UK Spy Case Collapse Highlights Implications for UK-Taiwan Strategic Alignment
On the Road to the Oscars? Meghan Markle to Star in a New Film
A Vote Worth a Trillion Dollars: Elon Musk’s Defining Day
AI Researchers Claim Human-Level General Intelligence Is Already Here
President Donald Trump Challenges Nigeria with Military Options Over Alleged Christian Killings
Nancy Pelosi Finally Announces She Will Not Seek Re-Election, Signalling End of Long Congressional Career
UK Pre-Budget Blues and Rate-Cut Concerns Pile Pressure on Pound
ITV Warns of Nine-Per-Cent Drop in Q4 Advertising Revenue Amid Budget Uncertainty
National Grid Posts Slightly Stronger-Than-Expected Half-Year Profit as Regulatory Investments Drive Growth
UK Business Lobby Urges Reeves to Break Tax Pledges and Build Fiscal Headroom
UK to Launch Consultation on Stablecoin Regulation on November 10
UK Savers Rush to Withdraw Pension Cash Ahead of Budget Amid Tax-Change Fears
Massive Spoilers Emerge from MAFS UK 2025: Couple Swaps, Dating App Leaks and Reunion Bombshells
Kurdish-led Crime Network Operates UK Mini-Marts to Exploit Migrants and Sell Illicit Goods
UK Income Tax Hike Could Trigger £1 Billion Cut to Scotland’s Budget, Warns Finance Secretary
Tommy Robinson Acquitted of Terror-related Charge After Phone PIN Dispute
Boris Johnson Condemns Western Support for Hamas at Jewish Community Conference
HII Welcomes UK’s Westley Group to Strengthen AUKUS Submarine Supply Chain
Tragedy in Serbia: Coach Mladen Žižović Collapses During Match and Dies at 44
Diplo Says He Dated Katy Perry — and Justin Trudeau
Dick Cheney, Former U.S. Vice President, Dies at 84
Trump Calls Title Removal of Andrew ‘Tragic Situation’ Amid Royal Fallout
UK Bonds Rally as Chancellor Reeves Briefs Markets Ahead of November Budget
UK Report Backs Generational Smoking Ban Ahead of Tobacco & Vapes Bill Review
UK’s Domino’s Pizza Group Reports Modest Like-for-Like Sales Growth in Q3
UK Supplies Additional Storm Shadow Missiles to Ukraine as Trump Alleges Russian Underground Nuclear Tests
High-Profile Broodmare Puca Sells for Five Million Dollars at Fasig-Tipton ‘Night of the Stars’
Wilt Chamberlain’s One-of-a-Kind ‘Searcher 1’ Supercar Heads to Auction
Erling Haaland’s Remarkable Run: 13 Premier League Goals in 10 Matches and Eyes on History
UK Labour Peer Warns of Emerging ‘Constituency for Hating Jews’ in Britain
UK Home Secretary Admits Loss of Border Control, Warns Public Trust at Risk
President Trump Expresses Sympathy for UK Royal Family After Title Stripping of Prince Andrew
Former Prince Andrew to Lose His Last Military Title as King Charles Moves to End His Public Role
King Charles Relocates Andrew to Sandringham Estate and Strips Titles Amid Epstein Fallout
Two Arrested After Mass Stabbing on UK Train Leaves Ten Hospitalised
Glamour UK Says ‘Stay Mad Jo x’ After Really Big Rowling Backlash
Former Prince Prince Andrew Faces Possible U.S. Congressional Appearance Over Jeffrey Epstein Inquiry
UK Faces £20 Billion Productivity Shortfall as Brexit’s Impact Deepens
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves Eyes New Council-Tax Bands for High-Value Homes
UK Braces for Major Storm with Snow, Heavy Rain and Winds as High as 769 Miles Wide
×