London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Dec 04, 2025

What will happen with Brexit in the next few weeks?

The British government has proposed a new version of the Brexit deal which the EU is considering.

The British government has proposed a new version of the Brexit deal, which the EU is considering. The two sides have agreed to "intensify" talks.

On 19 October for the first time this century MPs will sit in the House of Commons on a Saturday. That could be to vote on any deal, or to debate alternative routes ahead.

Boris Johnson's new proposal involves removing the backstop. That's the measure from the original withdrawal agreement aimed at preventing any possibility of border posts and checks between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.


The Irish border Brexit backstop


The deal negotiated by former prime minister Theresa May and her government was defeated in the House of Commons several times.

Mr Johnson's new idea is that Northern Ireland continues to follow EU rules and standards on all goods. That would remove the need for regulatory checks on goods crossing the Irish border.

However, Northern Ireland would stay in the customs territory of the UK. So there would be a customs border between Northern Ireland and the Republic. But the government's plan is that all customs checks could be made away from the border.

If the UK and EU can't agree a deal then under the so-called Benn Act the prime minister is obliged to request an extension of Article 50, delaying Brexit.

Cabinet ministers have said the government will obey the law, but the prime minister has said he will not ask for an extension. There has been some speculation about finding a loophole in the law or using some other device to avoid Mr Johnson himself having to ask for the extension.

For example, it's been suggested that he could request an extension but at the same time tell the EU to ignore his request.

If Mr Johnson refuses to write the letter asking for an extension then it's likely he will face a legal challenge.

Could a no-deal Brexit still happen on 31 October?


No-deal Brexit on 31 October


The default position is still that the UK will leave the EU on 31 October at 23:00 GMT.

Even if the prime minister requests an extension there is no guarantee that the other EU countries would agree.

Leaving without a deal (or withdrawal agreement) means the UK would immediately exit the customs union and single market - arrangements designed to make trade easier.

Many politicians and businesses say this would damage the economy. Others say the risks are exaggerated.


What is 'no-deal Brexit'?


Early election
An early election is widely expected after 31 October when Brexit is currently scheduled to happen.

That's because it takes at least 25 working days for an election campaign to take place.

If a Brexit is delayed, the House of Commons might be asked again by the government to back an early general election. That requires a 2/3 majority in the House of Commons and so far MPs have been unprepared to agree.

An alternative route for the government would be a short new law specifying the date of an early general election - this would require only a simple majority and not need two-thirds of MPs.

There is another much more dramatic way - the prime minister could call a vote of no confidence in his own government.

What are the PM's election options?


What is the Queen's Speech?


Vote of no confidence

At any point the opposition could call a vote of no confidence in the government. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has previously said he would table such a motion.

If more MPs vote for the no-confidence motion than against it, there would then be a 14-day window to see if the current government - or an alternative one with a new prime minister - could win a vote of confidence.

If no-one does then a general election would follow.


What is a vote of no confidence?


Cancel Brexit
There is also the legal option of cancelling Brexit altogether by revoking Article 50.

But clearly, this is not something the current government is contemplating - so it's only really possible to imagine this outcome after a change of government.

The Liberal Democrats have said that if they won a majority in the House of Commons they would revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Inquiry Finds Putin ‘Morally Responsible’ for 2018 Novichok Death — London Imposes Broad Sanctions on GRU
India backs down on plan to mandate government “Sanchar Saathi” app on all smartphones
King Charles Welcomes German President Steinmeier to UK in First State Visit by Berlin in 27 Years
UK Plans Major Cutback to Jury Trials as Crown Court Backlog Nears 80,000
UK Government to Significantly Limit Jury Trials in England and Wales
U.S. and U.K. Seal Drug-Pricing Deal: Britain Agrees to Pay More, U.S. Lifts Tariffs
UK Postpones Decision Yet Again on China’s Proposed Mega-Embassy in London
Head of UK Budget Watchdog Resigns After Premature Leak of Reeves’ Budget Report
Car-sharing giant Zipcar to exit UK market by end of 2025
Reports of Widespread Drone Deployment Raise Privacy and Security Questions in the UK
UK Signals Security Concerns Over China While Pursuing Stronger Trade Links
Google warns of AI “irrationality” just as Gemini 3 launch rattles markets
Top Consultancies Freeze Starting Salaries as AI Threatens ‘Pyramid’ Model
Macron Says Washington Pressuring EU to Delay Enforcement of Digital-Regulation Probes Against Meta, TikTok and X
UK’s DragonFire Laser Downs High-Speed Drones as £316m Deal Speeds Naval Deployment
UK Chancellor Rejects Claims She Misled Public on Fiscal Outlook Ahead of Budget
Starmer Defends Autumn Budget as Finance Chief Faces Accusations of Misleading Public Finances
EU Firms Struggle with 3,000-Hour Paperwork Load — While Automakers Fear De Facto 2030 Petrol Car Ban
White House launches ‘Hall of Shame’ site to publicly condemn media outlets for alleged bias
UK Budget’s New EV Mileage Tax Undercuts Case for Plug-In Hybrids
UK Government Launches National Inquiry into ‘Grooming Gangs’ After US Warning and Rising Public Outcry
Taylor Swift Extends U.K. Chart Reign as ‘The Fate of Ophelia’ Hits Six Weeks at No. 1
250 Still Missing in the Massive Fire, 94 Killed. One Day After the Disaster: Survivor Rescued on the 16th Floor
Trump: National Guard Soldier Who Was Shot in Washington Has Died; Second Soldier Fighting for His Life
UK Chancellor Reeves Defends Tax Rises as Essential to Reduce Child Poverty and Stabilise Public Finances
No Evidence Found for Claim That UK Schools Are Shifting to Teaching American English
European Powers Urge Israel to Halt West Bank Settler Violence Amid Surge in Attacks
"I Would Have Given Her a Kidney": She Lent Bezos’s Ex-Wife $1,000 — and Received Millions in Return
European States Approve First-ever Military-Grade Surveillance Network via ESA
UK to Slash Key Pension Tax Perk, Targeting High Earners Under New Budget
UK Government Announces £150 Annual Cut to Household Energy Bills Through Levy Reforms
UK Court Hears Challenge to Ban on Palestine Action as Critics Decry Heavy-Handed Measures
Investors Rush Into UK Gilts and Sterling After Budget Eases Fiscal Concerns
UK to Raise Online Betting Taxes by £1.1 Billion Under New Budget — Firms Warn of Fallout
Lamine Yamal? The ‘Heir to Messi’ Lost to Barcelona — and the Kingdom Is in a Frenzy
Warner Music Group Drops Suit Against Suno, Launches Licensed AI-Music Deal
HP to Cut up to 6,000 Jobs Globally as It Ramps Up AI Integration
MediaWorld Sold iPad Air for €15 — Then Asked Customers to Return Them or Pay More
UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer Promises ‘Full-Time’ Education for All Children as School Attendance Slips
UK Extends Sugar Tax to Sweetened Milkshakes and Lattes in 2028 Health Push
UK Government Backs £49 Billion Plan for Heathrow Third Runway and Expansion
UK Gambling Firms Report £1bn Surge in Annual Profits as Pressure Mounts for Higher Betting Taxes
UK Shares Advance Ahead of Budget as Financials and Consumer Staples Lead Gains
Domino’s UK CEO Andrew Rennie Steps Down Amid Strategic Reset
UK Economy Stalls as Reeves Faces First Budget Test
UK Economy’s Weak Start Adds Pressure on Prime Minister Starmer
UK Government Acknowledges Billionaire Exodus Amid Tax Rise Concerns
UK Budget 2025: Markets Brace as Chancellor Faces Fiscal Tightrope
UK Unveils Strategic Plan to Secure Critical Mineral Supply Chains
UK Taskforce Calls for Radical Reset of Nuclear Regulation to Cut Costs and Accelerate Build
×