London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Sep 11, 2026

What will happen with Brexit in the next few weeks?

The British government has proposed a new version of the Brexit deal which the EU is considering.

The British government has proposed a new version of the Brexit deal, which the EU is considering. The two sides have agreed to "intensify" talks.

On 19 October for the first time this century MPs will sit in the House of Commons on a Saturday. That could be to vote on any deal, or to debate alternative routes ahead.

Boris Johnson's new proposal involves removing the backstop. That's the measure from the original withdrawal agreement aimed at preventing any possibility of border posts and checks between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.


The Irish border Brexit backstop


The deal negotiated by former prime minister Theresa May and her government was defeated in the House of Commons several times.

Mr Johnson's new idea is that Northern Ireland continues to follow EU rules and standards on all goods. That would remove the need for regulatory checks on goods crossing the Irish border.

However, Northern Ireland would stay in the customs territory of the UK. So there would be a customs border between Northern Ireland and the Republic. But the government's plan is that all customs checks could be made away from the border.

If the UK and EU can't agree a deal then under the so-called Benn Act the prime minister is obliged to request an extension of Article 50, delaying Brexit.

Cabinet ministers have said the government will obey the law, but the prime minister has said he will not ask for an extension. There has been some speculation about finding a loophole in the law or using some other device to avoid Mr Johnson himself having to ask for the extension.

For example, it's been suggested that he could request an extension but at the same time tell the EU to ignore his request.

If Mr Johnson refuses to write the letter asking for an extension then it's likely he will face a legal challenge.

Could a no-deal Brexit still happen on 31 October?


No-deal Brexit on 31 October


The default position is still that the UK will leave the EU on 31 October at 23:00 GMT.

Even if the prime minister requests an extension there is no guarantee that the other EU countries would agree.

Leaving without a deal (or withdrawal agreement) means the UK would immediately exit the customs union and single market - arrangements designed to make trade easier.

Many politicians and businesses say this would damage the economy. Others say the risks are exaggerated.


What is 'no-deal Brexit'?


Early election
An early election is widely expected after 31 October when Brexit is currently scheduled to happen.

That's because it takes at least 25 working days for an election campaign to take place.

If a Brexit is delayed, the House of Commons might be asked again by the government to back an early general election. That requires a 2/3 majority in the House of Commons and so far MPs have been unprepared to agree.

An alternative route for the government would be a short new law specifying the date of an early general election - this would require only a simple majority and not need two-thirds of MPs.

There is another much more dramatic way - the prime minister could call a vote of no confidence in his own government.

What are the PM's election options?


What is the Queen's Speech?


Vote of no confidence

At any point the opposition could call a vote of no confidence in the government. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has previously said he would table such a motion.

If more MPs vote for the no-confidence motion than against it, there would then be a 14-day window to see if the current government - or an alternative one with a new prime minister - could win a vote of confidence.

If no-one does then a general election would follow.


What is a vote of no confidence?


Cancel Brexit
There is also the legal option of cancelling Brexit altogether by revoking Article 50.

But clearly, this is not something the current government is contemplating - so it's only really possible to imagine this outcome after a change of government.

The Liberal Democrats have said that if they won a majority in the House of Commons they would revoke Article 50 and cancel Brexit.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
English Councils to Gain Power to Introduce Tourist Taxes by 2028
Kemi Badenoch Reshuffles Conservative Shadow Cabinet
Firefighters Make Progress Containing Major Wildfires in South Wales
John Lewis Partnership Reports £124 Million Loss
Study Says UK AI Data Centres Will Create Only a Quarter of Forecast Jobs
UK Government Considers Higher Industrial Water Prices Amid Supply Pressures
Andy Burnham Holds First Call With Donald Trump as UK Prime Minister
NHS Records Busiest Summer on Record as Heatwaves Drive Hospital Admissions
Home Secretary Orders Police Crackdown on Far-Right Anti-Migrant Vigilantes
UK Supreme Court Rules Northern Ireland Religious Education Curriculum Breaches Human Rights Standards
Markets Price in Four Bank of England Rate Rises by Next Summer
House of Commons Prepares Free Vote on Assisted Dying Bill
UK Government Bans Trade With Israeli Settlements in Occupied Territories
UK Economy Grows 0.4% in July as Artificial Intelligence Investment Supports Expansion
Andy Burnham Becomes UK Prime Minister After Keir Starmer Resigns
John Lewis Partnership Loss Widens to £124 Million
UK Government to Put White Working-Class Social Mobility at Centre of Equality Policy
McLaren Plans £450 Million Technology Investment Creating 1,000 UK Jobs
UK Chancellor Faces Calls for Wealth Taxes and Public Ownership in Autumn Budget
English Mayors to Gain Powers to Impose Uncapped Overnight Tourist Taxes
JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon Warns UK Government Against Bank Windfall Taxes
UK Air Traffic Control Outage Cancels More Than 2,000 Flights
UK Imposes Trade Ban on Israeli Settlements in the West Bank
UK Borrowing Costs Surge as Middle East Tensions Push Long-Term Gilt Yields to Highest Since 1998
Buckingham Palace Says Prince Harry and Meghan Will Not Resume Official Royal Duties
UK Treasury Faces Calls to Scrap £100,000 Childcare Support Threshold
Trades Union Congress Urges Labour Government to Rewrite Migration Policy
Riot Police Deployed After Anti-Migrant Protests Turn Violent in Portsmouth
UK Considers Replacing Some Disability Cash Payments With Direct Services
JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon Warns UK Chancellor Against Higher Banking Taxes
UK Announces New Sanctions Targeting Israeli Settlements in West Bank
Metropolitan Police Investigate Alleged Illegal Donations to Reform UK
UK Charges Wiltshire Man With Assisting Russian Intelligence
UK Orders Urgent Review After Air Traffic Failure Cancels More Than 2,000 Flights
Merz Rebukes AfD Expansion in Saxony-Anhalt
King Charles Confirms Prince Harry and Meghan Will Remain Private Citizens
Labour Selects Former Child Refugee for By-Election in Keir Starmer’s Former Seat
Foreign Private Equity Accelerates Takeovers of London-Listed Industrial Companies
NHS Maternity Care Faces Scrutiny Over Support for Mothers After Caesarean Births
BBC Warns Staff Strikes Are Likely Amid Job Cuts and Programme Cancellations
English Housing Affordability Improves to Best Level in More Than a Decade
UK Health Commission Proposes Framework for Wider AI Adoption Across NHS
Labour Faces Pressure for Wealth Tax Ahead of Autumn Budget
Metropolitan Police Open Criminal Investigation Into Alleged Foreign Donations to Reform UK
UK Police Deploy Riot Officers After Anti-Immigration Unrest in Portsmouth and Dover
UK Defends Sanctions on Israeli Settlements Despite Diplomatic Retaliation
UK Air Traffic Control Failure Cancels More Than 1,000 Flights and Disrupts 65,000 Passengers
Compass Urges £10 Million Wealth Tax and Public Ownership Ahead of UK Autumn Budget
UK Government’s Devolution Plans Face House of Lords Scrutiny
Maldives Seeks New Chagos Sovereignty Talks With UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham
×