London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Nov 24, 2025

Virus cases 'may be levelling off' in England, figures suggest

Virus cases 'may be levelling off' in England, figures suggest

The number of people in England testing positive for coronavirus may be levelling off, according to a household survey by the Office for National Statistics.

After a low in cases at the end of June, it estimated infections had risen slightly in July.

Restrictions have been introduced in Preston and kept in place in 18 other areas to control outbreaks.

Public Health England says virus levels remain "stable at a national level".

The ONS figures are based on throat and nose swabs from nearly 120,000 people.

They are tested whether they have symptoms or not.

Individuals in hospitals and care homes are not included in the ONS survey, which has been estimating cases in private households since May.

Figures for Wales have been included for the first time - and during the week of 27 July to 2 August, 1,400 people are estimated to have had Covid-19.

In England, the figure for the same week is 28,300.

Local lockdowns


However, there is uncertainty around these figures because they are based on modelling a sample of the population and a very small number of positive tests - just 53 people from 53 households over six weeks.

And the ONS says there is no clear evidence from its survey to say whether infection rates differ by region in England.

Local restrictions are currently in place in 18 areas in Greater Manchester, West Yorkshire and East Lancashire, plus Leicester.

Preston, in Lancashire, has now also been added to that list.

This means there are stricter rules on socialising for people living in these areas and for businesses, in order to control the spread of the virus.

Public Health England's watchlist of areas with rising cases now includes Blackburn with Darwen, Leicester, Burnley, Hyndburn, Pendle, Rossendale, Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford, Wigan, Bradford, Calderdale and Kirklees.

Leicester was the first place in the UK to have a local lockdown introduced after a rise in Covid-19 cases. The city's pubs and restaurants are now preparing for their first weekend open in months.





At a national level, PHE says 4,605 cases of coronavirus were detected in the last week of July - similar to the week before.

Any sign of cases levelling off is welcome news.

The ONS can only say this "may" be happening because its trends are based on 53 people testing positive for the virus over a six week period. It is too small a number to be certain.

This set of data is from people who were tested between 27 July and 2 August. That means it is too soon to seen the effect of the greater restrictions imposed on parts of northern England, which came in late on 30 July, or Boris Johnson postponing the easing of lockdown planned for the start of August.

The latest data does not contradict UK chief medical advisor, Prof Chris Whitty, saying last week that we are "near the limit" of opening up society. And the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) has warned that it "does not have confidence" that R is currently below 1 in England.

However, these are national pictures and what is most important is the data from where you live.

The ONS infection survey cannot pick out a Leicester and the R number cannot say Aberdeen is different to the rest of Scotland.

The latest R number for the UK was also published on Friday. It is now estimated to be between 0.8 and 1.0, suggesting coronavirus cases in the UK are either stable or shrinking slightly.

However SAGE, the government's scientific advisors, says it does "not have confidence that R is currently below 1 in England".

The number relates to how many people each infected person is passing the virus on to. Anything above 1.0 means cases are starting to grow again.

Highs and lows


Prof Keith Neal, emeritus professor of the epidemiology of infectious diseases, at the University of Nottingham, said estimating R was becoming "increasingly difficult" because of the small number of cases around.

"A local cluster in one part of a region such as Leicester in the East Midlands can give a value over 1 overall for the region but the figure would be much lower in the rest of the region.

"These local clusters need to be identified and managed with locally targeted measures," he said.

"For many parts of the country, infection rates continue to fall but caution and avoidance of high risk mixing needs to continue."

Prof Neal added: "The best way the public can help control Covid-19 is to get tested if they have symptoms, and if positive, isolate and identify their contacts."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Car Parts Leader Warns Europe Faces Heavy Job Losses in ‘Darwinian’ Auto Shake-Out
Arsenal Move Six Points Clear After Eze’s Historic Hat-Trick in Derby Rout
Wealthy New Yorkers Weigh Second Homes as the ‘Mamdani Effect’ Ripples Through Luxury Markets
Families Accuse OpenAI of Enabling ‘AI-Driven Delusions’ After Multiple Suicides
UK Unveils Critical-Minerals Strategy to Break China Supply-Chain Grip
Taylor Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia” Extends U.K. No. 1 Run to Five Weeks
UK VPN Sign-Ups Surge by Over 1,400 % as Age-Verification Law Takes Effect
Former MEP Nathan Gill Jailed for Over Ten Years After Taking Pro-Russia Bribes
Majority of UK Entrepreneurs Regard Government as ‘Anti-Business’, Survey Shows
UK’s Starmer and US President Trump Align as Geneva Talks Probe Ukraine Peace Plan
UK Prime Minister Signals Former Prince Andrew Should Testify to US Epstein Inquiry
Royal Navy Deploys HMS Severn to Shadow Russian Corvette and Tanker Off UK Coast
China’s Wedding Boom: Nightclubs, Mountains and a Demographic Reset
Fugees Founding Member Pras Michel Sentenced to 14 Years in High-Profile US Foreign Influence Case
WhatsApp’s Unexpected Rise Reshapes American Messaging Habits
United States: Judge Dressed Up as Elvis During Hearings – and Was Forced to Resign
Johnson Blasts ‘Incoherent’ Covid Inquiry Findings Amid Report’s Harsh Critique of His Government
Lord Rothermere Secures £500 Million Deal to Acquire Telegraph Titles
Maduro Tightens Security Measures as U.S. Strike Threat Intensifies
U.S. Envoys Deliver Ultimatum to Ukraine: Sign Peace Deal by Thursday or Risk Losing American Support
Zelenskyy Signals Progress Toward Ending the War: ‘One of the Hardest Moments in History’ (end of his business model?)
U.S. Issues Alert Declaring Venezuelan Airspace a Hazard Due to Escalating Security Conditions
The U.S. State Department Announces That Mass Migration Constitutes an Existential Threat to Western Civilization and Undermines the Stability of Key American Allies
Students Challenge AI-Driven Teaching at University of Staffordshire
Pikeville Medical Center Partners with UK’s Golisano Children’s Network to Expand Pediatric Care
Germany, France and UK Confirm Full Support for Ukraine in US-Backed Security Plan
UK Low-Traffic Neighbourhoods Face Rising Backlash as Pandemic Schemes Unravel
UK Records Coldest Night of Autumn as Sub-Zero Conditions Sweep the Country
UK at Risk of Losing International Doctors as Workforce Exodus Grows, Regulator Warns
ASU Launches ASU London, Extending Its Innovation Brand to the UK Education Market
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer to Visit China in January as Diplomatic Reset Accelerates
Google Launches Voluntary Buyouts for UK Staff Amid AI-Driven Company Realignment
UK braces for freezing snap as snow and ice warnings escalate
Majority of UK Novelists Fear AI Could Displace Their Work, Cambridge Study Finds
UK's Carrier Strike Group Achieves Full Operational Capability During NATO Drill in Mediterranean
Trump and Mamdani to Meet at the White House: “The Communist Asked”
Nvidia Again Beats Forecasts, Shares Jump in After-Hours Trading
Wintry Conditions Persist Along UK Coasts After Up to Seven Centimetres of Snow
UK Inflation Eases to 3.6 % in October, Opening Door for Rate Cut
UK Accelerates Munitions Factory Build-Out to Reinforce Warfighting Readiness
UK Consumer Optimism Plunges Ahead of November Budget
A Decade of Innovation Stagnation at Apple: The Cook Era Critique
Caribbean Reparations Commission Seeks ‘Mutually Beneficial’ Justice from UK
EU Insists UK Must Contribute Financially for Access to Electricity Market and Broader Ties
UK to Outlaw Live-Event Ticket Resales Above Face Value
President Donald Trump Hosts Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at White House to Seal Major Defence and Investment Deals
German Entertainment Icons Alice and Ellen Kessler Die Together at Age 89
UK Unveils Sweeping Asylum Reforms with 20-Year Settlement Wait and Conditional Status
UK Orders Twitter Hacker to Repay £4.1 Million Following 2020 High-Profile Breach
Popeyes UK Eyes Century Mark as Fried-Chicken Chain Accelerates Roll-out
×