London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Apr 07, 2026

Virus cases 'may be levelling off' in England, figures suggest

Virus cases 'may be levelling off' in England, figures suggest

The number of people in England testing positive for coronavirus may be levelling off, according to a household survey by the Office for National Statistics.

After a low in cases at the end of June, it estimated infections had risen slightly in July.

Restrictions have been introduced in Preston and kept in place in 18 other areas to control outbreaks.

Public Health England says virus levels remain "stable at a national level".

The ONS figures are based on throat and nose swabs from nearly 120,000 people.

They are tested whether they have symptoms or not.

Individuals in hospitals and care homes are not included in the ONS survey, which has been estimating cases in private households since May.

Figures for Wales have been included for the first time - and during the week of 27 July to 2 August, 1,400 people are estimated to have had Covid-19.

In England, the figure for the same week is 28,300.

Local lockdowns


However, there is uncertainty around these figures because they are based on modelling a sample of the population and a very small number of positive tests - just 53 people from 53 households over six weeks.

And the ONS says there is no clear evidence from its survey to say whether infection rates differ by region in England.

Local restrictions are currently in place in 18 areas in Greater Manchester, West Yorkshire and East Lancashire, plus Leicester.

Preston, in Lancashire, has now also been added to that list.

This means there are stricter rules on socialising for people living in these areas and for businesses, in order to control the spread of the virus.

Public Health England's watchlist of areas with rising cases now includes Blackburn with Darwen, Leicester, Burnley, Hyndburn, Pendle, Rossendale, Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Oldham, Rochdale, Salford, Stockport, Tameside, Trafford, Wigan, Bradford, Calderdale and Kirklees.

Leicester was the first place in the UK to have a local lockdown introduced after a rise in Covid-19 cases. The city's pubs and restaurants are now preparing for their first weekend open in months.





At a national level, PHE says 4,605 cases of coronavirus were detected in the last week of July - similar to the week before.

Any sign of cases levelling off is welcome news.

The ONS can only say this "may" be happening because its trends are based on 53 people testing positive for the virus over a six week period. It is too small a number to be certain.

This set of data is from people who were tested between 27 July and 2 August. That means it is too soon to seen the effect of the greater restrictions imposed on parts of northern England, which came in late on 30 July, or Boris Johnson postponing the easing of lockdown planned for the start of August.

The latest data does not contradict UK chief medical advisor, Prof Chris Whitty, saying last week that we are "near the limit" of opening up society. And the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) has warned that it "does not have confidence" that R is currently below 1 in England.

However, these are national pictures and what is most important is the data from where you live.

The ONS infection survey cannot pick out a Leicester and the R number cannot say Aberdeen is different to the rest of Scotland.

The latest R number for the UK was also published on Friday. It is now estimated to be between 0.8 and 1.0, suggesting coronavirus cases in the UK are either stable or shrinking slightly.

However SAGE, the government's scientific advisors, says it does "not have confidence that R is currently below 1 in England".

The number relates to how many people each infected person is passing the virus on to. Anything above 1.0 means cases are starting to grow again.

Highs and lows


Prof Keith Neal, emeritus professor of the epidemiology of infectious diseases, at the University of Nottingham, said estimating R was becoming "increasingly difficult" because of the small number of cases around.

"A local cluster in one part of a region such as Leicester in the East Midlands can give a value over 1 overall for the region but the figure would be much lower in the rest of the region.

"These local clusters need to be identified and managed with locally targeted measures," he said.

"For many parts of the country, infection rates continue to fall but caution and avoidance of high risk mixing needs to continue."

Prof Neal added: "The best way the public can help control Covid-19 is to get tested if they have symptoms, and if positive, isolate and identify their contacts."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
King Charles Faces Criticism From Some UK Christians Over Absence of Easter Message
Former UK Defence Secretary Raises Concerns Over Ability to Counter Iran Missile Threat
UK Signals Non-Involvement in Iran Conflict as Trump Reasserts Firm Deterrence Stance
US and UK Strengthen Medical Device Cooperation Following Tariff Removal
Trump Backs Steve Hilton for California Governor, Highlighting Reform Agenda
UK Seeks Closer Ties With Anthropic as AI Policy Divergence Emerges Across Atlantic
Experts Warn of Evolving Extremism After Teens Arrested in UK Ambulance Arson Case
UK Convenes Talks to Safeguard Shipping Through Strait of Hormuz After Conflict Escalation
Trump Highlights Strong Leadership in Critique of UK Stance on Iran
UK Authorities Review Kanye West’s Entry Status Following Festival Backlash
UK Considers Deploying Aircraft Carrier for US Independence Day Celebrations Amid Renewed Transatlantic Focus
United Kingdom Moves to Attract AI Firm Anthropic Amid Tensions with US Defense Officials
RAF Intercepts Iranian Drones in Middle East to Defend Allied Security Interests
Labour Signals Shift on Foie Gras and Fur Restrictions to Advance EU Trade Talks
Seven Arrested Near RAF Base as UK Authorities Respond to Protest Activity
Economic Pressures Mount as Analysts Warn UK Growth Is Being Constrained by Policy Burdens
UK Green Party’s Push for Church-State Separation Sparks Debate Over National Identity
Strategic Island Emerges as Growing Challenge for United States and United Kingdom Defense Planning
Pepsi Pulls Sponsorship from UK Festival Following Backlash Linked to Kanye West
Signs Emerge of Declining Enthusiasm for Social Media in the United Kingdom
Security Alert Raised Ahead of Meghan Markle’s Planned Visit to Australia
UK Food Halls Defy Hospitality Slowdown, Emerging as Bright Spot in Challenging Market
UK Sets Firm Conditions for Military Action, Insisting on Legal Mandate and Clear Strategy
UK Medicines Regulator Launches Probe into Peptide Clinics Over Health Claims
New North Sea Drilling Unlikely to Significantly Cut UK Gas Imports, Analysis Finds
Woman Linked to UK’s First All-Female Terror Plot Faces Deportation
Downed US Aircraft Over Iran Linked to Operations from UK Airfield
Two Men and Teen Detained in UK Following Attack on Jewish Charity Ambulance
UK Police Launch Inquiry After Firearms Left Unattended Outside Mayor’s Residence
Giuffre Family Calls on King Charles to Meet Epstein Survivors During US Visit
Amber Wind Warning Issued as Storm Dave Approaches Parts of the United Kingdom
Prince Harry and Meghan’s Australia Visit Set to Draw Heightened Global Attention
UK Considers Entry Fees for Overseas Visitors at Major Museums Ahead of 2026 Travel Season
UK Prime Minister and Kuwait Crown Prince Coordinate Security Response After Regional Escalation
Calls Grow to Expand Fully Paid Maternity Leave for UK Teachers Amid Workforce Pressures
UK Secures Tariff-Free Access to US Market in Landmark Pharmaceuticals Agreement
Trump Projects Strength in Critique of UK Leadership and Naval Readiness
UK FinTech Setback as VibePay and Smartlayer Cease Operations Amid Funding Pressures
UK Leads Global Coalition of Over Forty Nations to Address Strait of Hormuz Crisis
UK Firms Urged to Accelerate Preparation as New Sustainability Reporting Rules Take Shape
UK Moves Rapid Sentry Air Defence System to Kuwait After Drone Strike Escalation
Transatlantic Relations Tested as UK Seeks Balance While Trump Reshapes Strategic Approach
Trump’s Strategic Pressure on UK Seen as Push for Stronger Alignment and Fairer Terms
UK Focuses on Trade Finance to Secure Critical Materials for Defence and Energy Sectors
Majority of UK Businesses Hit by Middle East Conflict While Confidence Holds Firm
UK Royal Navy Faces Renewed Scrutiny as Debate Intensifies Over Capability and Readiness
Reform UK Faces Mounting Distractions as Policy Agenda Struggles to Gain Traction
Investigation Launched Into Northern Cyprus IVF Clinics After UK Families Receive Incorrect Sperm
International Meeting Issues Unified Call to Safeguard Navigation Through Strait of Hormuz
Potential Strait of Hormuz Closure Raises Concerns Over UK Food and Medicine Supply Chains
×