London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Oct 03, 2025

US Autonomy Act unlikely to undermine Hong Kong dollar peg in short-run, but poses long-term risk, analysts say

US Autonomy Act unlikely to undermine Hong Kong dollar peg in short-run, but poses long-term risk, analysts say

US sanctions on Hong Kong banks are seen as the biggest risk to the finance hub, although one-year time frame before imposition and ability to appeal eases concerns. But analysts say the long-term outlook for the Hong Kong dollar peg is uncertain given escalating tensions between China and the US

US President Donald Trump’s decision to take action against Beijing over its imposition of a new security law on Hong Kong is unlikely to undermine the city’s dollar peg system or its role as a financial hub in the short term, but escalating conflict between the US and China raises questions about the long-term outlook, according to analysts.

Trump last week issued an executive order ending the city’s special economic treatment and enacted the Hong Kong Autonomy Act, which paves the way for punishment of Chinese and Hong Kong officials accused of curbing the autonomy of the ex-British colony, as well as the financial institutions that do business with them.

The US State Department has 90 days to designate individuals or entities in contravention of the law, after which banks will have one year to cease business relations.

Only a few banks are expected to be targeted, and they would be allowed to appeal for removal from the US government’s sanctions list, analysts said. This has eased worries over a full-blown US-China financial war, as well as other extreme scenarios in the short-run, said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at French investment bank Natixis.

Carie Li Ruofan, an economist at OCBC Wing Hang Bank, said the biggest worry had been the threat of financial sanctions on banks.

“But since the president has given leeway for a lot of time to identify these banks and to impose the actual sanctions, there isn’t a real market impact and there aren’t excessive concerns for the time being,” she said.

Trump’s executive order did not mention limiting Hong Kong banks’ access to the US dollar payment system as a way of punishing China, which would undermine the currency peg system that has allowed the city to remain a global financial hub.

The Hong Kong dollar has been pegged to the US dollar since October 1983, but has been allowed to trade between 7.75 and 7.85 since 2005.

Due to China’s draconian capital controls that restrict the use of the yuan globally, the freely convertible and stable Hong Kong dollar is especially important to China for attracting foreign investment and in turn allowing Chinese companies to easily raise hard currency in the city.

Economists estimate that investment flows through the city account for more than 70 per cent of China’s international funding.

Indeed, any doubts about the Hong Kong dollar peg and an exodus of capital from the city have been largely erased by a flood of hot money pouring into Chinese initial public equity offerings this year.

A push in Washington to make Chinese companies listed on US exchanges open their accounting to scrutiny, in combination with proposed legislation that would force them to delist, has seen many firms look to list on the Hong Kong stock market to hedge their bets, buoying the value of the Hong Kong dollar, analysts said.

Between April and June, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the city’s de facto central bank, intervened in the market several times to curb the strength of the local currency. On Monday, the Hong Kong dollar was exchanging hands at 7.754 against the US dollar, moving slightly away from the strong end of its trading band of 7.75.

Chang Wei Liang, macro strategist at DBS Bank, said uncertainties about Hong Kong’s dollar peg system are likely to grow in the long term as the world’s two largest economies grapple for international influence over trade, technology and security.

“The fact that tensions continue to brew between the US and China could still mean a big change down the road,” Chang said. “China could possibly retaliate with sanctions on US officials. All this points to a very tense environment in terms of the bilateral relationship between US and China.”

Franklin Chu, president of Sage Capital Group, a private equity and global investment management firm, said the Hong Kong currency peg is not likely to break until it becomes clear that the city will no longer serve as a clearing house for international finance in the Asia-Pacific region.

“The US wants to maintain Hong Kong as a semi-autonomous financial centre,” Chu said. “[However,] the Hong Kong Autonomy Act legislation serves to send a clear message to Beijing that there would be significant financial and political consequences if the mainland acts to undermine Hong Kong’s autonomy.”

Herrero, from Natixis, said Trump’s executive order did not directly undermine Hong Kong’s role as a separate jurisdiction from China in multilateral agreements, such as under rules established by the World Trade Organisation. But its new status with the US risked changing the way the city was viewed by some international organisations and Western countries in the long run.
“All in all, Pandora’s box is now open in Hong Kong due to geopolitics stemming from the US-China strategic competition and decoupling,” Herrero said.




Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Trump Administration Launches “TrumpRx” Plan to Enable Direct Drug Sales at Deep Discounts
Trump Announces Intention to Impose 100 Percent Tariff on Foreign-Made Films
Altman Says GPT-5 Already Outpaces Him, Warns AI Could Automate 40% of Work
Singapore and Hong Kong Vie to Dominate Asia’s Rising Gold Trade
Trump Organization Teams with Saudi Developer on $1 Billion Trump Plaza in Jeddah
Manhattan Sees Surge in Office-to-Housing Conversions, Highest Since 2008
Switzerland and U.S. Issue Joint Assurance Against Currency Manipulation
Electronic Arts to Be Taken Private in Historic $55 Billion Buyout
Thomas Jacob Sanford Named as Suspect in Deadly Michigan Church Shooting and Arson
Russian Research Vessel 'Yantar' Tracked Mapping Europe’s Subsea Cables, Raising Security Alarms
New York Man Arrested After On-Air Confession to 2017 Parents’ Murders
U.S. Defense Chief Orders Sudden Summit of Hundreds of Generals and Admirals
Global Cruise Industry Posts Dramatic Comeback with 34.6 Million Passengers in 2024
Trump Claims FBI Planted 274 Agents at Capitol Riot, Citing Unverified Reports
India: Internet Suspended in Bareilly Amid Communal Clashes Between Muslims and Hindus
Supreme Court Extends Freeze on Nearly $5 Billion in U.S. Foreign Aid at Trump’s Request
Archaeologists Recover Statues and Temples from 2,000-Year-Old Sunken City off Alexandria
China Deploys 2,000 Workers to Spain to Build Major EV Battery Factory, Raising European Dependence
Speed Takes Over: How Drive-Through Coffee Chains Are Rewriting U.S. Coffee Culture
U.S. Demands Brussels Scrutinize Digital Rules to Prevent Bias Against American Tech
Ringo Starr Champions Enduring Beatles Legacy While Debuting Las Vegas Art Show
Private Equity’s Fundraising Surge Triggers Concern of European Market Shake-Out
Colombian President Petro Vows to Mobilize Volunteers for Gaza and Joins List of Fighters
FBI Removes Agents Who Kneeled at 2020 Protest, Citing Breach of Professional Conduct
Trump Alleges ‘Triple Sabotage’ at United Nations After Escalator and Teleprompter Failures
Shock in France: 5 Years in Prison for Former President Nicolas Sarkozy
Tokyo’s Jimbōchō Named World’s Coolest Neighbourhood for 2025
European Officials Fear Trump May Shift Blame for Ukraine War onto EU
BNP Paribas Abandons Ban on 'Controversial Weapons' Financing Amid Europe’s Defence Push
Typhoon Ragasa Leaves Trail of Destruction Across East Asia Before Making Landfall in China
The Personality Rights Challenge in India’s AI Era
Big Banks Rebuild in Hong Kong as Deal Volume Surges
Italy Considers Freezing Retirement Age at 67 to Avert Scheduled Hike
Italian City to Impose Tax on Visiting Dogs Starting in 2026
Arnault Denounces Proposed Wealth Tax as Threat to French Economy
Study Finds No Safe Level of Alcohol for Dementia Risk
Denmark Investigates Drone Incursion, Does Not Rule Out Russian Involvement
Lilly CEO Warns UK Is ‘Worst Country in Europe’ for Drug Prices, Pulls Back Investment
Nigel Farage Emerges as Central Force in British Politics with Reform UK Surge
Disney Reinstates ‘Jimmy Kimmel Live!’ after Six-Day Suspension over Charlie Kirk Comments
U.S. Prosecutors Move to Break Up Google’s Advertising Monopoly
Nvidia Pledges Up to $100 Billion Investment in OpenAI to Power Massive AI Data Center Build-Out
U.S. Signals ‘Large and Forceful’ Support for Argentina Amid Market Turmoil
Nvidia and Abu Dhabi’s TII Launch First AI-&-Robotics Lab in the Middle East
Vietnam Faces Up to $25 Billion Export Loss as U.S. Tariffs Bite
Europe Signals Stronger Support for Taiwan at Major Taipei Defence Show
Indonesia Court Upholds Military Law Amid Concerns Over Expanded Civilian Role
Larry Ellison, Michael Dell and Rupert Murdoch Join Trump-Backed Bid to Take Over TikTok
Trump and Musk Reunite Publicly for First Time Since Fallout at Kirk Memorial
Vietnam Closes 86 Million Untouched Bank Accounts Over Biometric ID Rules
×