London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Jul 22, 2025

‘Unity and strength’: Why Finland and Sweden will join NATO

‘Unity and strength’: Why Finland and Sweden will join NATO

Russia’s invasion has changed the political discourse in Sweden and Finland about becoming members of the Western military alliance, analysts say.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Finland and Sweden have sought the protection of NATO and are considering a paradigm shift of their respective security policies: the abdication of neutrality and military independence.

In January, Social Democratic Prime Minister Sanna Marin declared in Helsinki that Finland could not be expected to seek NATO membership during the current legislative period. However, Russia’s invasion has laid bare the disadvantages of being a non-member.

While NATO provides Kyiv with a certain amount of help, it has remained reluctant to intervene directly or collectively under Article 5. Finland, similar to Ukraine, is a direct neighbour of Russia, sharing a 1,300km (600-mile) long border.

“Unsurprisingly, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been the key factor in pushing Sweden and Finland closer to applying for full membership of NATO.

Russia’s invasion has dramatically changed the political discourse in Sweden and Finland and also crucially public opinion,” Alistair Shepherd, senior lecturer for European security at Aberystwyth University, told Al Jazeera.

There are indications both Finland and Sweden are heading towards a genuinely historic change of course in their respective security policies. During the Cold War, Sweden and Finland were essentially considered neutral states, albeit for different reasons.

“Sweden’s neutrality was much more part of their national identity, whereas Finland’s neutrality was more pragmatic and virtually forced upon them by the Agreement of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance signed between Finland and the USSR in 1948,” said Shepherd.


‘Very significant contributions’


Since the end of the Cold War, both have developed an ever-closer relationship with NATO, especially after joining its Partnership for Peace (PfP) programme in 1994 and the European Union in 1995.

“PfP was designed to offer non-NATO states a way to develop their individual relations to NATO at a pace and to the extent of their own choosing,” said Shepherd.

Despite joining the EU, and more significantly in terms of defence and military policy, both countries continued to position themselves as militarily non-aligned. This effectively meant while they were no longer politically neutral, they formally remained outside of any military alliances.

The latter is seemingly about to change.

Finland is reportedly inclined to decide on NATO membership within weeks. Sweden, meanwhile, faces an election midyear, and it has been somewhat more cautious than Finland where its future is concerned.

The government will want to avoid impulsive security policy changes that would throw decades-old dogmas overboard and thereby alienate its core electorate. However, since Russia’s invasion, public opinion has significantly shifted, making NATO membership for Sweden, as well as Finland, more conceivable than perhaps ever.

“Polling in Finland found 53 percent in favour of NATO membership and 41 percent in Sweden. More recently that has risen further with over 50 percent now in favour in Sweden [rising to 62 percent if Finland joins]. In Finland, 68 percent are in favour of joining NATO [rising to 77 per cent if the government recommends it],” said Shepherd.

Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said after a meeting with her Finnish colleague the new security situation would be examined comprehensively and quickly.

In any case, Sweden and Finland are already firmly integrated into NATO structures. Their armies have been cooperating with NATO troops for many years. Finnish and Swedish soldiers participated in the NATO-led operation in Afghanistan, and both have been working closely with the United States on equipment and training since 2015.

“Both countries are what NATO calls ‘Enhanced Opportunity Partners’. These are partners that make very significant contributions to NATO operations and objectives,” Shepherd noted.


‘Russia will not be pleased’


In essence, their memberships would further enhance NATO’s presence and security within the Baltic region. Both Sweden and Finland bring advanced and well-trained militaries into NATO.

“It could create some long-term challenges because having 32 members can slow down or hamper consensus decision-making. It also indicates how far Russia has isolated itself from the rest of the European community,” Alexander Lanoszka, assistant professor in international relations at the University of Waterloo, told Al Jazeera.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has hinted all gates are wide open, but NATO has not yet officially considered accession. It is only possible once an application has been submitted.

The timetable depends on two factors in particular. For one, the respective governments in Stockholm and Helsinki have to ratify the plan.

“All national parliaments will need to ratify their application to join. It appears that the two governments would rather move quickly than slowly, but these legislative constraints could put on the brakes,” Lanoszka noted.

The second hurdle is admission into NATO. However, major NATO countries have already made it clear they would welcome the admission of Finland and Sweden.

Support comes from the US, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Poland. None of the other countries has yet opposed the idea, which is pivotal as all 30 members must agree on an application.

“In the context of the Russia-Ukraine war, it’s likely to be approved quickly and membership fast-tracked to show the unity and strength of the alliance in the face of Russian aggression,” Katharine AM Wright, senior lecturer in international politics at Newcastle University, told Al Jazeera.

“If the applications are made, I’d therefore expect to see membership granted this year.”

However, the inclusion of the two Scandinavian countries in the alliance is not seen without concerns.

Russia will not be pleased, leading Secretary-General Stoltenberg to emphasize at every opportunity it is not NATO that is expanding but that nations possess the option to join the alliance.


‘Significantly escalate the war’


Moscow said that if Finland and Sweden joined NATO, Russia would have to strengthen its defences in the region, including by repositioning nuclear weapons.

The Kremlin has been threatening “consequences” for years if Finland and Sweden were to join NATO. President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman recently said Russia would “have to readjust” the balance at the border.

“Russia is attempting to influence Sweden and Finland’s decision, for example, with the claim it will end a nuclear-free Baltic,” said Wright.

“Yet, as the Lithuanian president has pointed out, Russia has long had nuclear weapons storage points in Kaliningrad. If anything, such posturing, is likely to strengthen the case for NATO membership.”

Former Russian President and current Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said via telegram there should be no more talk about the status of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Baltic and the Baltic Sea, alluding to the Kaliningrad exclave between Poland and Lithuania.

Finnish and Swedish membership of NATO would remove the neutrality and non-aligned status of two countries from Europe, moving towards the acceptance of a militarised understanding of security as the primary approach for the West.

However, Putin views Finland and Sweden differently than Ukraine because of their different histories.

Ukraine is seen as part of an imagined “Russian world” by Putin. Sweden and Finland are, therefore, less comparable to Ukraine beyond their proximity to Russia.

“Any Russian incursion into Finland or Sweden, even prior to NATO membership, is unlikely given it would significantly escalate the war,” said Wright.


Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
US Treasury Secretary Calls for Institutional Review of Federal Reserve Amid AI‑Driven Growth Expectations
UK Government Considers Dropping Demand for Apple Encryption Backdoor
Severe Flooding in South Korea Claims Lives Amid Ongoing Rescue Operations
Japanese Man Discovers Family Connection Through DNA Testing After Decades of Separation
Russia Signals Openness to Ukraine Peace Talks Amid Escalating Drone Warfare
Switzerland Implements Ban on Mammography Screening
Japanese Prime Minister Vows to Stay After Coalition Loses Upper House Majority
Pogacar Extends Dominance with Stage Fifteen Triumph at Tour de France
CEO Resigns Amid Controversy Over Relationship with HR Executive
Man Dies After Being Pulled Into MRI Machine Due to Metal Chain in New York Clinic
NVIDIA Achieves $4 Trillion Valuation Amid AI Demand
US Revokes Visas of Brazilian Corrupted Judges Amid Fake Bolsonaro Investigation
U.S. Congress Approves Rescissions Act Cutting Federal Funding for NPR and PBS
North Korea Restricts Foreign Tourist Access to New Seaside Resort
Brazil's Supreme Court Imposes Radical Restrictions on Former President Bolsonaro
Centrist Criticism of von der Leyen Resurfaces as she Survives EU Confidence Vote
Judge Criticizes DOJ Over Secrecy in Dropping Charges Against Gang Leader
Apple Closes $16.5 Billion Tax Dispute With Ireland
Von der Leyen Faces Setback Over €2 Trillion EU Budget Proposal
UK and Germany Collaborate on Global Military Equipment Sales
Trump Plans Over 10% Tariffs on African and Caribbean Nations
Flying Taxi CEO Reclaims Billionaire Status After Stock Surge
Epstein Files Deepen Republican Party Divide
Zuckerberg Faces $8 Billion Privacy Lawsuit From Meta Shareholders
FIFA Pressured to Rethink World Cup Calendar Due to Climate Change
SpaceX Nears $400 Billion Valuation With New Share Sale
Microsoft, US Lab to Use AI for Faster Nuclear Plant Licensing
Trump Walks Back Talk of Firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell
Zelensky Reshuffles Cabinet to Win Support at Home and in Washington
"Can You Hit Moscow?" Trump Asked Zelensky To Make Putin "Feel The Pain"
Irish Tech Worker Detained 100 days by US Authorities for Overstaying Visa
Dimon Warns on Fed Independence as Trump Administration Eyes Powell’s Succession
Church of England Removes 1991 Sexuality Guidelines from Clergy Selection
Superman Franchise Achieves Success with Latest Release
Hungary's Viktor Orban Rejects Agreements on Illegal Migration
Jeff Bezos Considers Purchasing Condé Nast as a Wedding Gift
Ghislaine Maxwell Says She’s Ready to Testify Before Congress on Epstein’s Criminal Empire
Bal des Pompiers: A Celebration of Community and Firefighter Culture in France
FBI Chief Kash Patel Denies Resignation Speculations Amid Epstein List Controversy
Air India Pilot’s Mental Health Records Under Scrutiny
Google Secures Windsurf AI Coding Team in $2.4 Billion Licence Deal
Jamie Dimon Warns Europe Is Losing Global Competitiveness and Flags Market Complacency
South African Police Minister Suspended Amid Organised Crime Allegations
Nvidia CEO Claims Chinese Military Reluctance to Use US AI Technology
Hong Kong Advances Digital Asset Strategy to Address Economic Challenges
Australia Rules Out Pre‑commitment of Troops, Reinforces Defence Posture Amid US‑China Tensions
Martha Wells Says Humanity Still Far from True Artificial Intelligence
Nvidia Becomes World’s First Four‑Trillion‑Dollar Company Amid AI Boom
U.S. Resumes Deportations to Third Countries After Supreme Court Ruling
Excavation Begins at Site of Mass Grave for Children at Former Irish Institution
×