London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Nov 04, 2026

Ukraine war: Gas costs hit new record and oil soars beyond 2008 high as Russia boycott considered

Ukraine war: Gas costs hit new record and oil soars beyond 2008 high as Russia boycott considered

Market analysts say there is no sign of downwards pressure on prices, with some even saying that the impact of Russian oil and associated products being blocked could tip Brent crude towards an unprecedented $200 a barrel.

The cost of natural gas has smashed past UK records while Brent crude oil has surged to its highest level since 2008 after the US said a boycott of Russian energy imports was being considered, as a further sanction, following President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

The international oil benchmark passed $139 a barrel early on Monday - with its US counterpart also rising sharply - before settling back to around $124 by the evening.

The upward shifts followed comments by US secretary of state Antony Blinken that his country and European allies were discussing a block on oil and associated products, including gas, from Russia - the world's largest producer when combined.

However, prime minister Boris Johnson said that "you can't simply close down the use of oil and gas overnight even from Russia" and Germany's chancellor Olaf Scholz said an exemption for energy deliveries from sanctions was of "essential significance" for Europe's day-to-day heating, transport, power supply and industry needs.

The move floated by Mr Blinken would be aimed at disrupting crucial state income - on top of wide-ranging sanctions already announced amid no sign that measures to date have forced Russia to alter course.

It placed further pressure on European natural gas prices when markets opened, with the UK contract for next month delivery rising 66% at one stage to hit a new record shy of 800p per therm before slipping back to 500p.

To put the scale of that price in context, the level for a typical April would be around 40p.

The contract for May delivery spiked by more than 90% to 660p.

The price surge raises the horrifying prospect of average energy bills surging beyond £3,000 annually without government intervention, building on recent warnings to that effect.

Sir Alan Duncan, a former Foreign Office minister, warned in a BBC interview that the ratcheting up of sanctions risked pushing the UK into a "dystopian economic collapse".

Fears of a natural gas squeeze meant that wholesale gas prices were hitting record levels across Europe.

The UK's department for business, energy and industrial strategy tweeted that the country was "in no way dependent on Russian gas supply" in a bid to calm domestic nerves over inflows.

It published data showing that the UK relies on Russia for just over 2% of current needs.


The FTSE 100 added to steep losses of the previous week when share trading began in Europe though gains for miners and oil majors BP and Shell helped temper the sell-off, with the index closing 0.4% lower having been down by more than 2% at one stage.

Germany's DAX was 2% lower, recovering from a 4% plunge initially, while in New York, stock indices also saw sharp falls with the Dow Jones down more than 2%, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq about 3% off.

The Nikkei in Japan had ended nearly 3% lower and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong by nearly 4%.

On currency markets, the pound was under further pressure against the US dollar, hitting its lowest level against the greenback since December 2020 at just above $1.31.

The dollar has benefited from a flight to safe-haven assets - a trend which also helped the gold price climb above $2,000 per ounce to hit its highest level since August 2020 on Monday.


No end in sight to rising oil prices


Brent crude has risen by almost 70% over the course of 2022 to date - forcing steep increases in obvious areas such as fuel costs which are hitting record highs daily in the UK and elsewhere - but also in the wider economy as the inflation filters through supply chains.

Prices had already been rising in advance of Russia's actions because of tight supply as economies recover from coronavirus fatigue.

Market experts warned there was only upwards pressure on costs ahead, with Russian oil exports making up 30% of Europe's entire supplies.

When oil's associated products are included, the country is the world's top exporter - accounting for 7% of global supply.

Analysts at CMC Markets told investors: "A boycott would put enormous pressure on oil and gas supply that has already felt the impact of increasing demand.

"Prices are likely to rise in the short term, with a move toward $150 a barrel not out of the question."

"Such a move will put further pressure on global economies, pushing inflation higher, leaving central banks debating how quickly rate hikes should be implemented," they concluded.

Gold, among so-called safe haven assets, has surged in value


Counterparts at Bank of America saw the prospect of $200 a barrel in sight if an oil embargo was imposed.

The record price for Brent - set in July 2008 - is $147.50 a barrel.

The Iran factor supporting prices


Delays in the potential return of Iranian crude to global markets also fuelled fears over tight supplies.

That was because talks to revive Tehran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers were mired by demands from Russia that sanctions it is facing over Ukraine do not disrupt Russia-Iran trade.

Other crucial commodity costs also rose sharply on Monday.

Markets.com noted a 7% rise for wheat and 24% leap in nickel.

Its chief market analyst, Neil Wilson, said of the prospect of an energy boycott: "It was only a matter of time before we got to the point of banning Russian oil and gas because of the escalation in the conflict and targeting of civilians.

"Or at least got to the point of talking about it - which is enough for the front month to rip.

"Moving forward, if there is a ban, how do you turn it back on? That would mean longer-term repercussions and elevated pricing."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Northern Ireland Executive Agrees on Multi-Year Public Sector Pay Restructuring Framework at Stormont
Department for Transport Confirms Acceleration of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Rollout Along Strategic Motorways
Welsh Government Announces Emergency Funding Package to Support Agricultural Sector Facing Severe Weather Impacts
High Court Rules in Favor of Environmental Coalition Over Government Carbon Reduction Plan Deficiencies
Office for National Statistics Reports Stable Retail Sales Growth Supported by Strong Digital Commerce Volumes
Scottish First Minister John Swinney Secures Cross-Party Support for Renewable Energy Export Expansion
National Health Service Digital Reports Major Breakthrough in Reducing Elective Waiting Lists Across England
Chancellor Rachel Reeves Outlines Infrastructure Spending Reforms to Boost Regional Economic Growth Across Northern England
Bank of England Holds Baseline Interest Rate at Five Percent Amid Persistent Core Inflation Pressures
House of Lords Advances Representation of the People Bill to Modernize Electoral Law Ahead of General Election
Financial Markets and Private Equity Assess Tax and Corporate Realignment Following Recent Chancellor Budget Adjustments
Justice Committee Warns Legal Aid Is a Service in Managed Decline Due to Inadequate Government Funding Responses
Royal Navy Intercepts Russian Intelligence Vessel and Warships Across Intensive North Sea Operations
Business and Trade Committee Slams Government Policy on China as Fragmented and Lacking Strategic Direction
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood Softens Immigration Plans Following Intensive Cabinet Backlash Over Settlement Timelines
Automotive Industry Data Reveals Continued Acceleration in Battery Electric Vehicle Registrations Across British Dealerships
High Court of England and Wales Rules on Landmark Legal Challenge Regarding Local Government Housing Mandates
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero Approves Expanded Offshore Wind Infrastructure Along Scottish Coastline
Competition and Markets Authority Launches Broad Investigation Into Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure and Cloud Partnerships
United Kingdom and European Union Launch High-Level Preparations for Bilateral Defense and Security Summit in Brussels
National Health Service England Unveils Emergency Workforce Reforms to Alleviate Winter Accident and Emergency Pressures
Chancellor Rachel Reeves Finalizes Autumn Budget Adjustments to Meet Fiscal Rules and Fund Public Services
Bank of England Prepares for Interest Rate Decision Amid Rising Bond Yields and Inflationary Pressures
House of Lords Begins Detailed Legislative Scrutiny of Representation of the People Bill and Cyber Security Laws
Metropolitan Police Detain More Than Three Hundred Individuals Following Large-Scale Demonstration Outside London Embassy
Home Office Prepares Stricter Residency Rules Requiring Vulnerable Migrants to Wait Decade for Settlement Rights
Professional Mental Health Bodies Demand Statutory Regulation for Counsellors and Psychotherapists
National Grid Confirms Construction of Britain's Largest Electrical Substation to Power Teesside Data Centre
Prime Minister Keir Starmer Travels to Samoa for Commonwealth Summit Amid Debates on Economic Cooperation and Reparations
Home Office Implements Enhanced Digital Border Controls and Visa Processing Systems at Major Airports
Office for National Statistics Reports Stable Employment Participation Rates Across Regional Labor Markets
Department for Business and Trade Announces Strategic Partnership to Secure Critical Mineral Supply Chains
Scottish Government Unveils Regional Economic Development Strategy to Boost Advanced Manufacturing in Glasgow and Dundee
Treasury Officials Review Taxation Frameworks and Capital Gains Rules Ahead of Autumn Budget Disclosures
National Health Service Leaders Warn of Winter Capacity Pressures Across Acute Care Facilities
Bank of England Prepares for Key Interest Rate Decision Amid Sticky Inflation and Fiscal Policy Pressures
Home Office Expands Border Security Operations and Intelligence Sharing With European Partners
Office for National Statistics Reports Modest Retail Sales Growth Ahead of Crucial Christmas Trading Season
Welsh Government Unveils Strategic Plan to Boost Regional Technology Innovation and Digital Skills Training
Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs Implements New Agricultural Subsidies Framework for English Farmers
Scottish First Minister John Swinney Announces Major Regional Infrastructure and Green Energy Investment Strategy
National Health Service Leaders Warn of Severe Winter Pressures and Mounting Accident and Emergency Backlogs
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Signals Cautious Interest Rate Path Amid Persistent Services Inflation
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves Finalizes Autumn Budget Framework Aiming to Close Public Sector Fiscal Gap
Department for Science, Innovation and Technology Prepares Enhanced Artificial Intelligence Safety and Cyber Defense Frameworks
United Kingdom Government Expands International Sanctions Framework Against Russian Shadow Fleet and Financial Enablers
Institute of Directors Reports Sharp Post-Budget Drop in Business Confidence Despite Long-Term Investment Intention Shifts
Chancellor John Healey Defends Sweeping Fiscal Adjustments and Household Support Packages Following Autumn Budget
Parliamentary Petitions Committee Schedules Major Legislative Debates on Special Educational Needs and Non-Stun Meat Labelling
Regional Devolution and Good Growth Fund Frameworks Reshape Local Government Funding Across English Regions
×