Parliament’s security watchdog is expected to demand to see the secret intelligence analysis behind the west’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, sources have said, after ministers claimed they were caught unawares by speed of the Taliban takeover.

The intelligence and security committee (ISC), which is chaired by the Tory MP Julian Lewis, has the power to demand intelligence documents and haul spies before it to give evidence.

Several sources close to the committee told the Guardian that its members were “extremely likely” to ask to see the joint intelligence committee (JIC) assessments relating to Afghanistan.

This would prove whether Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab were right to say that the speed of the collapse of the Afghan government and takeover by the Taliban was not anticipated.

The prime minister has insisted there was no failure in intelligence-gathering, but also that “the collapse of the Afghan forces has been much faster than expected”.

One source close to the ISC said there was already scepticism among those with knowledge of the intelligence community that Britain’s spies did not foresee the situation and warn that a swift takeover by the Taliban was at least a possibility.

In the US, a former CIA counter-terrorism chief has claimed the Trump and Biden administrations were warned by intelligence chiefs that the Afghan army’s resistance to the Taliban could collapse “within days” after an over-hasty withdrawal.

Lewis declined to comment on the future programme of work for the UK committee, although he said in the House of Commons on Wednesday that the question of intelligence relating to Afghanistan was “pertinent”. A spokesperson for the committee said it did not comment on its work programme.

The ISC will have to take a formal decision on demanding the intelligence and whether to launch an inquiry when it next meets, which is understood not to be until October. It does not have the power to look into ongoing operations.

However, there is already pressure building in parliament for a means to investigate whether the UK suffered a catastrophic intelligence failure relating to Afghanistan, with some MPs such as the former defence minister Tobias Ellwood calling for a full public inquiry. Another Tory MP, Andrew Bridgen, pressed Johnson to provide the intelligence assessment to parliament, but the prime minister avoided the question.

Dominic Grieve, a former chair of the committee, told the Guardian on Thursday that it was up to the ISC whether to launch an investigation, but he believed it would be a “useful exercise”.

He said: “The prime minister is on record as saying there has been no intelligence failure. He says we knew this was a possibility, even if the rapidity of collapse was quicker than anticipated. Therefore for the ISC to independently confirm the prime minister is correct about this and how this was factored into the decision-making of government would be very interesting to know about.”

Another former chair of the committee, Ann Taylor, a Labour peer, said the ISC “must undertake an urgent and comprehensive inquiry into what can only be called an intelligence failure”. She said: “There are reports that the government wants to curtail the power of that committee. I hope that that will not happen, because it must be allowed to work in an unfettered way.”

Taylor told the House of Lords: “It is inconceivable that the west would have gone ahead with this withdrawal in this way if we had known that this catastrophe would have unfolded as it has. There must have been a comprehensive intelligence assessment at the highest level, both in the UK and in the US, with whom we work so closely. Therefore, we have to ask what went wrong and we need to have a full and urgent inquiry into this.”