London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Oct 14, 2026

UK pay growth speeds up again as BoE frets about inflation

UK pay growth speeds up again as BoE frets about inflation

Pay growth in Britain - which is being closely watched by the Bank of England as it gauges how much higher to raise interest rates - picked up more pace in the three months to November, official data showed on Tuesday.
Pay excluding bonuses rose by an annual 6.4% in the September-to-November period, the biggest increase since records began in 2001, not counting jumps in the COVID-19 period which were distorted by lockdowns and government support measures.

Pay including bonuses also rose by 6.4%, the Office for National Statistics said.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected total pay and the ex-bonuses measure to rise by 6.2% and 6.3% respectively.

The ONS said Britain's jobless rate held at 3.7%, in line with the poll, close to its lowest in almost 50 years. Employment rose by a faster-than-expected 27,000.

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said on Monday that a shortage of workers in the labour market posed a major risk to forecasts that inflation will fall from its current levels above 10%.

The BoE looks set to raise borrowing costs for a 10 time in a row next month, and the main question for investors is the scale of the increase as it weighs up the risk of a recession.

Financial markets were mostly pricing in a half percentage-point hike in Bank Rate to 4.0% on Feb. 2 and pointed to only a one-in-four chance of a smaller 25 basis-point increase after Tuesday's data.

Sterling rose and was up by 0.1% on the day against the U.S. dollar and the euro.

"The latest labour market data maintain the pressure on the by the Monetary Policy Committee to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points next month, rather than slow down," Samuel Tombs, an economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics, said.

The ONS figures showed a wide gap between strong pay growth in the private sector and weaker increases for public sector workers, many of whom are locked in wage disputes with the government.

The number of days lost to strikes rose again in November and the period since June saw more days lost to industrial action than in any six months for over 30 years, the ONS said.

Private-sector total pay rose by an annual 7.1% in the three months to November compared with 3.3% in the public sector.

INFLATION STILL BITES

Despite the pay acceleration, the soaring rate of inflation means households are still seeing their spending power shrink.

Total pay, adjusted for the consumer prices index, fell by 3.9% between September and November compared with the same period in 2021. A larger fall had not been seen since 2009.

There were also signs that Britain's tight labour market was losing some of its inflationary heat.

Vacancies in the October-to-December period fell for a sixth time in a row and were down on an annual basis - by 85,000 - for only the second time since the lockdowns of early 2021 but were still a lot higher than before the coronavirus pandemic.

The economic inactivity rate - or the share of people not in work and not looking for it - fell in the three months to November to 21.5%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous three-month period.

But the rate was 1.3 percentage points higher than immediately before the pandemic.

Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics said the BoE might gamble that the signs of more labour market slack would translate into slowing wage growth, and its rate hikes might end in March.

"We think they will be willing to make that call - to carrying on hiking would bring its own risks - though the lack of commentary from MPC members over the last month is disconcerting," he said.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham Plans Brussels Talks to Renegotiate Post-Brexit Trade Deal
MI5 Warns of Rising Russian and Iranian Sabotage Threats to British Military Facilities
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham Pledges Closer EU Ties as MI5 Reveals Russian Brexit Interference
UK Orders Security Review Following Reported Killing of Former Politician Ann Widdecombe
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham Meets German Chancellor Merz to Strengthen European Security Ties
Nearly 100,000 NHS Patients Treated in Hospital Corridors as England Braces for Winter Pressures
UK Government Rejects US-Russia Diesel Agreement and Reaffirms Sanctions Against Moscow
UK and Germany Agree to Deepen Security and Economic Cooperation Following Berlin Talks
British Prime Minister Burnham Pledges Closer EU Ties During Visit to Germany
UK Announces New Sanctions on 17 Russia-Linked Entities During Foreign Secretary's Ukraine Visit
UK and Germany Finalize Kensington Treaty to Strengthen Defense and Technology Cooperation
Britain Maintains Diplomatic Mission in East Jerusalem Despite Israeli Closure Deadline
English Councils Push Government to Rethink Proposed Funding Cuts
Scottish Homebuilding Falls to Lowest Level in 11 Years
BBC Chief Matt Brittin Defends Restructuring as Staff Challenge Job Cuts
UK Finance Warns High Energy Costs and Bond Yields Are Complicating Fiscal Outlook
UK Adopts All 44 Recommendations on Regulating AI in Healthcare
Chancellor John Healey Prepares Autumn Budget as Borrowing Costs Strain Public Finances
UK Investigators See Strong Indications of Iranian Link After RAF Fairford Security Operation
Laura Trott Pledges Tighter Controls on Political Activism in UK Classrooms
Welsh Ministers Launch Long-Term Review of North Wales and Anglesey Crossings
Welsh Government Orders 18-Month Study of Road Solutions Around Newport
Reform UK MP Sarah Pochin Faces Scrutiny Over £800,000 Second Home Purchase
British Households Grow More Concerned About Fuel and Energy Prices
NHS Leaders Warn of Rising Winter Pressure on Emergency Departments
Kemi Badenoch Proposes £2.3 Billion Employer National Insurance Cut for Young Workers
Middle East Conflict Could Erase UK Fiscal Headroom, Economists Warn
Manchester City Found Guilty of Multiple Premier League Financial Rule Breaches
UK Security Services Find Strong Indications of Iranian Role in RAF Fairford Incident
Costa Coffee Returns to Operating Profit on Iced Drinks and Menu Changes
Asos Warns Customers After Unauthorized Access to Retail App and Data
Kemi Badenoch Puts Growth and Deregulation at Center of Conservative Conference
Campaigners Warn of Deepening Social Care Crisis for Disabled Adults
Study Finds Rising Early-Onset Cancer Rates Among Adults Under 50 in Britain
UK Coach Operators Warn High Diesel Prices Could Force Route Cuts
FCA Opens Independent Review Into Handling of Epstein-Linked Whistleblower Case
Argentina Vows to Block Falkland Islands Offshore Oil Development
UK Chancellor Prepares Fiscal Measures and Welfare Reforms Ahead of Autumn Budget
Sainsbury’s and Morrisons Explore Potential Multi-Billion-Pound Merger
UK Weighs Tariffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles to Align With European Union
UK Threatens Diplomatic Expulsions Over Planned Closure of East Jerusalem Consulate
UK Energy Price Cap Hits Three-Year High as Middle East Conflict Raises Costs
Seventh Arrest Made in Suspected Terror Plot at RAF Fairford
Systemic Education Collapse Sparks Mass Student Uprisings in France
Green Party Faces Backlash Over Resolution Equating Zionism With Racism
Conservatives Debate Scrapping Environmental Rules for New Homes
Cornwall Insight Warns UK Energy Bills Could Approach £2,000 This Winter
UK Coach Operators Warn of Service Cuts as Diesel Prices Exceed £2
Scottish Parliament Approves £68 Billion Budget With New Tax and Property Measures
FCA Opens Independent Review Into Handling of Epstein Whistleblower
×