London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Feb 26, 2026

UK pay growth speeds up again as BoE frets about inflation

UK pay growth speeds up again as BoE frets about inflation

Pay growth in Britain - which is being closely watched by the Bank of England as it gauges how much higher to raise interest rates - picked up more pace in the three months to November, official data showed on Tuesday.
Pay excluding bonuses rose by an annual 6.4% in the September-to-November period, the biggest increase since records began in 2001, not counting jumps in the COVID-19 period which were distorted by lockdowns and government support measures.

Pay including bonuses also rose by 6.4%, the Office for National Statistics said.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected total pay and the ex-bonuses measure to rise by 6.2% and 6.3% respectively.

The ONS said Britain's jobless rate held at 3.7%, in line with the poll, close to its lowest in almost 50 years. Employment rose by a faster-than-expected 27,000.

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said on Monday that a shortage of workers in the labour market posed a major risk to forecasts that inflation will fall from its current levels above 10%.

The BoE looks set to raise borrowing costs for a 10 time in a row next month, and the main question for investors is the scale of the increase as it weighs up the risk of a recession.

Financial markets were mostly pricing in a half percentage-point hike in Bank Rate to 4.0% on Feb. 2 and pointed to only a one-in-four chance of a smaller 25 basis-point increase after Tuesday's data.

Sterling rose and was up by 0.1% on the day against the U.S. dollar and the euro.

"The latest labour market data maintain the pressure on the by the Monetary Policy Committee to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points next month, rather than slow down," Samuel Tombs, an economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics, said.

The ONS figures showed a wide gap between strong pay growth in the private sector and weaker increases for public sector workers, many of whom are locked in wage disputes with the government.

The number of days lost to strikes rose again in November and the period since June saw more days lost to industrial action than in any six months for over 30 years, the ONS said.

Private-sector total pay rose by an annual 7.1% in the three months to November compared with 3.3% in the public sector.

INFLATION STILL BITES

Despite the pay acceleration, the soaring rate of inflation means households are still seeing their spending power shrink.

Total pay, adjusted for the consumer prices index, fell by 3.9% between September and November compared with the same period in 2021. A larger fall had not been seen since 2009.

There were also signs that Britain's tight labour market was losing some of its inflationary heat.

Vacancies in the October-to-December period fell for a sixth time in a row and were down on an annual basis - by 85,000 - for only the second time since the lockdowns of early 2021 but were still a lot higher than before the coronavirus pandemic.

The economic inactivity rate - or the share of people not in work and not looking for it - fell in the three months to November to 21.5%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous three-month period.

But the rate was 1.3 percentage points higher than immediately before the pandemic.

Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics said the BoE might gamble that the signs of more labour market slack would translate into slowing wage growth, and its rate hikes might end in March.

"We think they will be willing to make that call - to carrying on hiking would bring its own risks - though the lack of commentary from MPC members over the last month is disconcerting," he said.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
So, what's happened is, I think, government policy, not just under Labour, but under the Conservatives as well, has driven a lot of small landlords out of business.
Larry Summers, the former U.S. Treasury Secretary, is resigning from Harvard University as fallout continues over his ties to Jeffrey Epstein.
U.S. stocks ended higher on Wednesday, with the Dow gaining about six-tenths of a percent, the S&P 500 adding eight-tenths of a percent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbing roughly one-and-a-quarter percent.
From fears of AI-fuelled unemployment to Big Tech's record investment, this is AI Weekly.
US Lawmakers Seek Briefing from UK Over Reported Encryption Order Directed at Apple
UK Business Secretary Calls on EU to Remove Trade Barriers Hindering Growth
Legal Pathways for Removing Prince Andrew from Britain’s Line of Succession Examined
PM Netanyahu welcome India PM Narendra Modi to Israel
Shadow Diplomacy: How Harry and Meghan’s Jordan Trip Undermines the Monarchy
Sir Jim Ratcliffe, co-owner of Manchester United, comments on immigration in the UK.
Bill Gates, the UN and the WEF are attempting to construct "a giant digital gulag for all of humanity" via digital ID, CBDCs and vaccine passport infrastructure.
Britain’s Channel Crisis: Paying Billions While the Boats Keep Coming
Downing Street’s Veteran Deception Scandal
UK HealthCare Expands ‘Food as Health’ Initiative Statewide to Tackle Chronic Illness in Kentucky
Leonardo Chief Says UK Set to Decide on New Medium Helicopter Programme
UK Slows Chagos Islands Agreement After Concerns Raised in Washington
European and UK Stock Markets Reach Fresh Highs as Banks and Miners Lead Rally
UK Government Insists Chagos Islands Negotiations Continue After Minister’s ‘Pause’ Remark
No Confirmed Deal for Engie to Acquire UK Power Networks Amid Market Speculation
UK Reaffirms Updated Entry Requirements for Travellers as of February 25, 2026
General Atlantic to sell equity stake in ByteDance, valuing the company at $550 billion
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz Secures Pledge from China for Greater Imports of Quality Goods
Lord Mandelson Condemns Arrest as Driven by ‘Baseless Suggestion’ He Would Flee Abroad
Former UK Ambassador Released on Bail Following Arrest in Epstein-Linked Investigation
UK Parliament Orders Release of Former Prince Andrew’s Government Vetting Files
Reddit Fined £14 Million by UK Regulator Over Failures in Age Verification Controls
UK Moves to Tighten Regulation of Netflix, Disney+ and Prime Video Under New Media Rules
British Woman Who Reported Rape in Hong Kong Faces Possible Prosecution
'Christianity is the religion that has made this country great.'
Man Receives Parking Ticket 38 Years After Offense: ‘City Officials Said It’s Legitimate’
Woman Receives Gift Card for Christmas – Discovers It Is ‘Worth’ 63,000,000,000,000,000 Pounds
UK Sanctions New Zealand Insurer Maritime Mutual Following Allegations Over Russian Oil Cover
Reform MP Danny Kruger Condemns UK’s ‘Unregulated Sexual Economy’ in Call for Tougher Controls
The Show Must Go On: Prince William and Kate Middleton Shine at the BAFTAs Amid Andrew’s Arrest
UK Sanctions Russian ‘Illicit Oil Traders’ After Email Blunder Exposes Sanctions Evasion Network
Russia Amplifies Baseless Claims That UK and France Plan to Arm Ukraine with Nuclear Weapons
UK Imposes Sanctions on Two Georgian Television Channels Over Alleged Russian Disinformation
United States National Parks See Noticeable Drop in Visitors from Canada, U.K. and Australia
UK, Australia, Canada and New Zealand Escalate Sanctions on Russia as Ukraine War Marks Four Years
I Gave Andrew a Nude Massage Inside Buckingham Palace
UK Economy Faces Acute Strain as Trump’s Global Tariff Reshapes Trade Landscape
UK Signals Retaliation Is Possible as New US Tariff Policy Threatens Trade Stability
British Police Arrest Former Ambassador Peter Mandelson in Epstein-Related Misconduct Probe
Australia Officially Supports Proposal to Remove Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor from Royal Succession
Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan remains silent on ISIS brides' resettlement plans in Melbourne
Former UK Ambassador Peter Mandelson Arrested in Connection with Jeffrey Epstein
Jacob Rees Mogg afraid to talk about Peter Mandelson arrest on “suspicion of misconduct in a public office” (Pedophilia, corruption, etc.)
United Nations Calls for Global Action Against Disinformation and Hate Speech Online
Tucker Carlson warns of an inevitable clash in Western societies over mass migration
President Trump warns countries against abandoning recent trade deals with the US
×