London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Jul 14, 2025

UK government panel claims Covid mutation with 35% death rate a ‘realistic possibility,’ suggests new strains may ‘evade’ vaccines

UK government panel claims Covid mutation with 35% death rate a ‘realistic possibility,’ suggests new strains may ‘evade’ vaccines

A British government science panel has claimed that a coronavirus variant with a 35% fatality rate – akin to that seen in the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) – could emerge, and that vaccine booster doses may be needed.
A report issued on Friday by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) looked at a series of hypothetical scenarios related to Covid-19 variants, finding it a “realistic possibility” that a mutation could appear with a case fatality rate comparable to SARS (10%) or MERS (35%), both of which belong to the coronavirus family.

While the body said that existing vaccines would remain effective against “serious disease” from such a variant except in the case of “significant drift” in the virus’ spike proteins, it nonetheless added that “an increase in morbidity and mortality would be expected even in the face of vaccination,” as inoculation does not “fully prevent infection in most individuals.”

The report suggested a number of ways to deal with a more deadly mutation, including “vaccine booster doses to maintain protection against severe disease” and measures to limit the introduction of new variants from abroad.

SAGE also considered the likelihood of a variant that “evades current vaccines,” saying that could occur in several ways. The most likely cause would be a form of genetic variation known as “antigenic drift,” which happens when a virus mutates to a point when antibodies that prevented infection caused by previous strains no longer work.

The panel deemed that “almost certain” to happen to some degree. A “worst-case” scenario described in the paper might occur when a patient’s immune system was no longer able to produce antibodies for new variants, either due to its past contact with the virus or as a result of “previously experienced vaccines.” Such a doomsday scenario would make it “difficult to revaccinate” patients, but the researchers concluded that outcome was “less likely”.

The same agency released a separate report on vaccines on Friday, which found that immunity is “highly likely” to diminish over time, suggesting “there will be vaccination campaigns against SARS-CoV-2 for many years to come.”

However, the report on variants also noted that the novel coronavirus could follow an evolutionary path that sees it become more transmissible but less virulent, with SAGE drawing a comparison with “common colds.” It added that, while this is “unlikely in the short term,” it could later become a “realistic possibility” as the virus fully adapts to its human hosts.

SAGE concluded that the UK should continue to “proactively support” a global vaccination drive, saying that could help reduce the likelihood of “dangerous variants emerging in other parts of the world”. It also called for increased investment in viral surveillance to keep tabs on mutations.

To date, the UK has tallied some 5.8 million coronavirus infections and just shy of 130,000 fatalities, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University in the US. While the country saw a lull in cases over the spring, summer has brought a new spike, which officials attribute to the more contagious Delta variant first observed in India. Daily deaths have topped 100 several times over the last week, also marking an increase on the spring tally, with new cases per day in the tens of thousands.

Despite the recent surge, however, the British government moved ahead with its planned reopening earlier this month, lifting most of its Covid restrictions after imposing months of crippling lockdowns and business closures. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has defended the move as necessary, but nonetheless urged Britons to exercise “all the right prudence and respect for other people and the risks that the disease continues to present.”
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Bal des Pompiers: A Celebration of Community and Firefighter Culture in France
FBI Chief Kash Patel Denies Resignation Speculations Amid Epstein List Controversy
Air India Pilot’s Mental Health Records Under Scrutiny
Google Secures Windsurf AI Coding Team in $2.4 Billion Licence Deal
Jamie Dimon Warns Europe Is Losing Global Competitiveness and Flags Market Complacency
South African Police Minister Suspended Amid Organised Crime Allegations
Nvidia CEO Claims Chinese Military Reluctance to Use US AI Technology
Hong Kong Advances Digital Asset Strategy to Address Economic Challenges
Australia Rules Out Pre‑commitment of Troops, Reinforces Defence Posture Amid US‑China Tensions
Martha Wells Says Humanity Still Far from True Artificial Intelligence
Nvidia Becomes World’s First Four‑Trillion‑Dollar Company Amid AI Boom
U.S. Resumes Deportations to Third Countries After Supreme Court Ruling
Excavation Begins at Site of Mass Grave for Children at Former Irish Institution
Iranian President Reportedly Injured During Israeli Strike on Secret Facility
EU Delays Retaliatory Tariffs Amid New U.S. Threats on Imports
Trump Defends Attorney General Pam Bondi Amid Epstein Memo Backlash
Renault Shares Drop as CEO Luca de Meo Announces Departure Amid Reports of Move to Kering
Senior Aides for King Charles and Prince Harry Hold Secret Peace Summit
Anti‑Semitism ‘Normalised’ in Middle‑Class Britain, Says Commission Co‑Chair
King Charles Meets David Beckham at Chelsea Flower Show
If the Department is Really About Justice: Ghislaine Maxwell Should Be Freed Now
NYC Candidate Zohran Mamdani’s ‘Antifada’ Remarks Spark National Debate on Political Language and Economic Policy
President Trump Visits Flood-Ravaged Texas, Praises Community Strength and First Responders
From Mystery to Meltdown, Crisis Within the Trump Administration: Epstein Files Ignite A Deepening Rift at the Highest Levels of Government Reveals Chaos, Leaks, and Growing MAGA Backlash
Trump Slams Putin Over War Death Toll, Teases Major Russia Announcement
Reparations argument crushed
Rainmaker CEO Says Cloud Seeding Paused Before Deadly Texas Floods
A 92-year-old woman, who felt she doesn't belong in a nursing home, escaped the death-camp by climbing a gate nearly 8 ft tall
French Journalist Acquitted in Controversial Case Involving Brigitte Macron
Elon Musk’s xAI Targets $200 Billion Valuation in New Fundraising Round
Kraft Heinz Considers Splitting Off Grocery Division Amid Strategic Review
Trump Proposes Supplying Arms to Ukraine Through NATO Allies
EU Proposes New Tax on Large Companies to Boost Budget
Trump Imposes 35% Tariffs on Canadian Imports Amid Trade Tensions
Junior Doctors in the UK Prepare for Five-Day Strike Over Pay Disputes
US Opens First Rare Earth Mine in Over 70 Years in Wyoming
Kurdistan Workers Party Takes Symbolic Step Towards Peace in Northern Iraq
Bitcoin Reaches New Milestone of $116,000
Biden’s Doctor Pleads the Fifth to Avoid Self-Incrimination on President’s Medical Fitness
Grok Chatbot Faces International Backlash for Antisemitic Content
Severe Heatwave Claims 2,300 Lives Across Europe
NVIDIA Achieves Historic Milestone as First Company Valued at $4 Trillion
Declining Beer Consumption Signals Cultural Shift in Germany
Linda Yaccarino Steps Down as CEO of X After Two Years
US Imposes New Tariffs on Brazilian Exports Amid Political Tensions
Azerbaijan and Armenia are on the brink of a historic peace deal.
Emails Leaked: How Passenger Luggage Became a Side Income for Airport Workers
Polish MEP: “Dear Leftists - China is laughing at you, Russia is laughing, India is laughing”
BRICS Expands Membership with Indonesia and Ten New Partner Countries
Weinstein Victim’s Lawyer Says MeToo Movement Still Strong
×