London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Mar 04, 2026

Truss and Kwarteng's main plan has been growth - the shrinking figures look like a failing govt

Truss and Kwarteng's main plan has been growth - the shrinking figures look like a failing govt

The latest economy figures show how far away the government's 2.5% growth target is.
The problem for a government that sets a target to grow the economy above all else is that every month it gets a scorecard on progress, and this morning it looks like it's failing.

Strictly speaking, the 0.3% contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) announced for August is not the responsibility of Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng, who have only been in office since 6 September (though the tumult of the last five weeks may make it feel like longer).

But having set an ambition of 2.5% long-term growth and making economic expansion the guiding, and perhaps only, principle of their administration, it does demonstrate the scale of the challenge they and the country face.

The contraction in August was much worse than forecasters expected. Most were betting on a modest amount of growth, even allowing for the depressing effect on productivity of the last summer bank holiday.

Instead there was a decline led by production, which fell 1.8% in the month, with manufacturing of pharmaceuticals and transport equipment the biggest fallers by sector.

There was also downward movement as a consequence of the continued reduction in test and trace and the scale of the vaccine program, a reminder that almost everything counts towards GDP, from the cost of your morning coffee to a GP appointment.

Business Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg made light of the decline in GDP, telling Sky News that the figure was only a forecast, saying "these figures are very often revised so we should be careful at over-interpreting them".

He is certainly right about revisions. To demonstrate, the ONS revised its July figure for GDP, downwards. It said that as a consequence the economy contracted in the three months to August.

The GDP figure announced may well be revised but arguing about decimal-point changes in output misses a wider point about the challenges facing the economy.

Even before Truss and Kwarteng moved into Downing Street the economy was flatlining, and the Bank of England expects a five month recession to begin this month.

One of the biggest pressures is the ongoing labour squeeze, a factor highlighted as cross-sectoral by the ONS.

"Staff shortages continued to be an issue for businesses with difficulties being reported by businesses working in road haulage, hire of catering equipment, repair and maintenance of motor vehicles, hotels, restaurants and coffee shops, and employment agencies," it reports.

On Tuesday it was revealed that long-term sickness is at a record high with almost 2.5 million unable to work because of illness, and we know almost one in five of those over 50 are on an NHS waiting list.

Add the barriers of Brexit and there are more unfilled vacancies than there are people classified as unemployed, a sign the labour market is struggling to meet current demand, let alone future growth.

And thanks to market volatility, triggered at least in part by Mr Kwarteng's "mini-Budget", businesses now face a steep increase in borrowing costs, while consumers could be challenged by mortgage increases in excess of what they have saved on energy bills thanks to government support.

Add the wider question of financial market stability and confidence in the government's fiscal plan, built around unfunded tax cuts that leave an estimated £60bn hole in the public finances, and it is a deeply challenging environment.

The ONS will be along with the latest score this time next month.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Trump Says UK–US ‘Special Relationship’ Is Diminished Amid Middle East Dispute
UK Economic Forecasts Face Fresh Strain from Middle East Conflict and Rising Energy Costs
UK Reaffirms Close US Ties After Trump’s Public Criticism
Reeves Stresses Stability and Fiscal Discipline in UK Budget Update as Growth Outlook Shifts
UK Deploys Royal Navy Destroyer HMS Dragon to Cyprus After Drone Strike on RAF Base
Green Party Surges Past Labour in New UK Poll as Traditional Party Support Crumbles
Majority of Britons Oppose U.S. Use of UK Military Bases in Iran Conflict
UK Intensifies Evacuation Efforts from Oman, Working with Airlines to Boost Flight Capacity
Trump Condemns UK and Spain in Unusually Sharp Rift Over Iran Military Action
Trump Repeats UK Claims That Diverge from Verified Facts Amid Diplomatic Strain
UK Arrests Prominent Figures Linked to Epstein Network as Questions Mount Over US Action
Trump Says UK ‘Took Far Too Long’ to Approve Use of Airbases for Iran Strikes
Scope of Britain’s Role in the Expanding Middle East Conflict Comes Under Scrutiny
Trump Says He Is ‘Very Disappointed’ in Starmer Over Iran Comments
U.S. Embassy in Riyadh Struck by Drones Amid Escalating Iran Conflict
Starmer Confronts Strategic Test After Drone Strike Near British Base in Cyprus
Rolls-Royce Chief Signals Openness to Germany Joining UK-Led Fighter Jet Programme
UK Stocks Slip as Escalating Iran Conflict Triggers Global Market Selloff
UK Overhauls Asylum System to Make Refugee Status Temporary
Starmer Warns of ‘Reckless’ Iranian Strikes Amid Escalating Regional Tensions
British Base in Cyprus Targeted as Drones Intercepted Amid Expanding Iran Conflict
Starmer Diverges from Trump on Iran Strategy, Rejects ‘Regime Change from the Skies’
U.S. and Israel Intensify Strikes on Iran as Conflict Expands to Lebanon and Gulf States
Violent Pro-Iranian Protesters Storm U.S. Consulate in Karachi
Missile Debris Sparks Fires at Dubai’s Jebel Ali Port Near Palm Jumeirah
Iran Strikes U.S. Fifth Fleet Headquarters in Bahrain Amid Wider Gulf Retaliation
When the State Replaces the Parent: How Gender Policy Is Redefining Custody and Coercion
Bill Clinton Denies Knowing Woman in Hot Tub Photo During Closed-Door Epstein Deposition
Former U.S. President Bill Clinton Testifies on Ties to Jeffrey Epstein Before Congressional Oversight Committee
Dyson Reaches Settlement in Landmark UK Forced Labour Case
Barclays and Jefferies Shares Fall After UK Mortgage Lender Collapse Rekindles Credit Market Concerns
Play Exploring Donald Trump’s Rise to Power by ‘Lehman Trilogy’ Author to Premiere in the UK
Man Arrested After Churchill Statue Defaced in Central London
Keir Starmer Faces Political Setback as Labour Finishes Third in High-Profile By-Election
UK Assisted Dying Bill Set to Fall Short in Parliament as Regional Initiatives Gain Ground
UK Defence Ministry Clarifies Position After Reports of Imminent Helicopter Contract
Independent Left-Wing Plumber Secures Shock Victory as Greens Surge in UK By-Election
Reform UK Refers Alleged ‘Family Voting’ Incidents in By-Election to Police
United Kingdom Temporarily Withdraws Embassy Staff from Iran Amid Heightened Regional Tensions
UK Government Reaches Framework Agreement on Release of Mandelson Vetting Files
UK Police Contracts With Israeli Surveillance Firms Spark Debate Over Ethics and Oversight
United Airlines Passenger Hears Cockpit Conversations After Accessing In-Flight Audio Channel
Spain to Conduct Border Checks on Gibraltar Arrivals Under New Post-Brexit Framework
Engie Shares Jump After $14 Billion Agreement to Acquire UK Power Grid Assets
BNP Paribas Overtakes Goldman Sachs in UK Investment Banking League Tables
Geothermal Project to Power Ten Thousand Homes Marks UK Renewable Energy Milestone
UK Visa Grants Drop Nineteen Percent in 2025 as Migration Controls Tighten
Barclays and Jefferies Among Banks Exposed to Collapse of UK Mortgage Lender MFS
UK Asylum Applications Edge Down in 2025 Despite Rise in Small Boat Crossings
Jefferies Reports Significant Exposure After Collapse of UK Lender MFS
×