London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Nov 03, 2026

The voters who can't make up their minds

The voters who can't make up their minds

Will this election be decided by voters who have yet to make their mind up?

The 2017 election did not turn out the way anyone expected.

When the election was announced, polls showed the Conservatives with a massive lead over Labour.

In the end, the Conservatives lost their majority and there was a hung Parliament.

Support for Labour had steadily increased throughout the campaign.

In 2019, with just over a week to go, could undecided voters make a crucial difference at this late stage?


Is attachment to parties weakening?

It used to be the case that few people changed their minds during election campaigns. Most voters had a long-term stable psychological attachment to a political party and they voted for the same one, election after election.

This no longer seems to be the case. British Election Study data indicates that currently just 16% of Britons feel a very strong party identification. Compare this with the mid-1960s, when almost half of the UK population had a very strong party attachment.

In 1966, only about 13% of voters switched parties between elections. In 2015, that figure was 43% - and in 2017, it was 33%. Overall, across the past three elections, almost half the UK electorate (49%) voted for more than one party.

In 2017, a significant number of voters changed their minds during the campaign itself - and the same may yet happen in 2019.

A recent YouGov poll estimates 13% of the electorate who intend to vote have yet to decide for whom. This group of voters is highly likely to switch parties from last time.

Additionally, a recent Ipsos Mori poll suggested 40% of voters might still change their mind between now polling day:

28% of Conservative supporters
46% of Labour supporters
60% of Liberal Democrat supporters


What about the Brexit effect?

Brexit may well play a part in how undecided voters make up their minds, because identification as leavers or remainers appears to have outstripped party allegiance.

The British Election Study suggests 50% of people across the UK strongly identify with one side of the debate, which Prof Sir John Curtice calls the emotional legacy of Brexit.

The extent to which this election is dominated by the issue of Brexit could have a substantial impact on the result.

In 2017, Labour managed to shift the debate from Brexit to austerity.

In the process, it picked up many votes in the latter half of the campaign from younger voters and women hostile to public-spending cuts.

The dominant news stories of the past few days of this campaign - and how the parties manage to direct and shape election coverage - could be critical in helping a significant chunk of the electorate make up their mind.


Whose vote could be up for grabs?

Generally, there is little difference between men and women's electoral participation - but women are apparently more likely to be undecided voters than men.

In the run-up to the 2017 election, 18% of women and 10% of men did not know for whom to vote, according to the polls.

Men and women turned up to vote in equal proportions.

But, like many of those who made up their mind later on in the campaign, more women than men voted Labour.

In 2019, again the polls suggest a smaller proportion of women than men have made up their minds - 19% of women say they don't know for whom to vote, compared with 7% of men.

People in working-class jobs are also disproportionately represented among the undecideds - 16% say they don't know for whom to vote, compared with 12% of middle-class voters.

And these undecided working-class voters could make a significant difference to the result, especially in marginal northern English seats where Labour, Conservative, the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems are all competing for their votes.


How can the parties reach undecided voters?

There is a great deal of research suggesting the local constituency ground war, and particularly face-to-face contact, matters for mobilising voters - and traditional door-knocking works.

And although only a very small number of voters' minds are changed by local canvassing, they can make a crucial difference in marginal seats.

There also is strong evidence voters prefer candidates with local connections - research has even indicated the distance between a voter's home and the candidate's residential address is a predictor of their level of support.

General election poll tracker: How do the parties compare?
What difference will tactical voting make?
But we know much less about the impact of targeted messaging on social media.

In 2017, Labour was able to compensate for the Conservatives' greater social media spend with more boots on the ground and more individuals sharing posts for free.

We don't yet know what the fallout of the online - and offline - campaign of 2019 will be. And without a system for publicly sharing, we might never know.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Automotive Industry Data Reveals Continued Acceleration in Battery Electric Vehicle Registrations Across British Dealerships
High Court of England and Wales Rules on Landmark Legal Challenge Regarding Local Government Housing Mandates
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero Approves Expanded Offshore Wind Infrastructure Along Scottish Coastline
Competition and Markets Authority Launches Broad Investigation Into Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure and Cloud Partnerships
United Kingdom and European Union Launch High-Level Preparations for Bilateral Defense and Security Summit in Brussels
National Health Service England Unveils Emergency Workforce Reforms to Alleviate Winter Accident and Emergency Pressures
Chancellor Rachel Reeves Finalizes Autumn Budget Adjustments to Meet Fiscal Rules and Fund Public Services
Bank of England Prepares for Interest Rate Decision Amid Rising Bond Yields and Inflationary Pressures
House of Lords Begins Detailed Legislative Scrutiny of Representation of the People Bill and Cyber Security Laws
Metropolitan Police Detain More Than Three Hundred Individuals Following Large-Scale Demonstration Outside London Embassy
Home Office Prepares Stricter Residency Rules Requiring Vulnerable Migrants to Wait Decade for Settlement Rights
Professional Mental Health Bodies Demand Statutory Regulation for Counsellors and Psychotherapists
National Grid Confirms Construction of Britain's Largest Electrical Substation to Power Teesside Data Centre
Prime Minister Keir Starmer Travels to Samoa for Commonwealth Summit Amid Debates on Economic Cooperation and Reparations
Home Office Implements Enhanced Digital Border Controls and Visa Processing Systems at Major Airports
Office for National Statistics Reports Stable Employment Participation Rates Across Regional Labor Markets
Department for Business and Trade Announces Strategic Partnership to Secure Critical Mineral Supply Chains
Scottish Government Unveils Regional Economic Development Strategy to Boost Advanced Manufacturing in Glasgow and Dundee
Treasury Officials Review Taxation Frameworks and Capital Gains Rules Ahead of Autumn Budget Disclosures
National Health Service Leaders Warn of Winter Capacity Pressures Across Acute Care Facilities
Bank of England Prepares for Key Interest Rate Decision Amid Sticky Inflation and Fiscal Policy Pressures
Home Office Expands Border Security Operations and Intelligence Sharing With European Partners
Office for National Statistics Reports Modest Retail Sales Growth Ahead of Crucial Christmas Trading Season
Welsh Government Unveils Strategic Plan to Boost Regional Technology Innovation and Digital Skills Training
Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs Implements New Agricultural Subsidies Framework for English Farmers
Scottish First Minister John Swinney Announces Major Regional Infrastructure and Green Energy Investment Strategy
National Health Service Leaders Warn of Severe Winter Pressures and Mounting Accident and Emergency Backlogs
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Signals Cautious Interest Rate Path Amid Persistent Services Inflation
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves Finalizes Autumn Budget Framework Aiming to Close Public Sector Fiscal Gap
Department for Science, Innovation and Technology Prepares Enhanced Artificial Intelligence Safety and Cyber Defense Frameworks
United Kingdom Government Expands International Sanctions Framework Against Russian Shadow Fleet and Financial Enablers
Institute of Directors Reports Sharp Post-Budget Drop in Business Confidence Despite Long-Term Investment Intention Shifts
Chancellor John Healey Defends Sweeping Fiscal Adjustments and Household Support Packages Following Autumn Budget
Parliamentary Petitions Committee Schedules Major Legislative Debates on Special Educational Needs and Non-Stun Meat Labelling
Regional Devolution and Good Growth Fund Frameworks Reshape Local Government Funding Across English Regions
Loughborough University Economic Analysts Highlight Substantial Uncertainty Surrounding Public Sector Efficiency Savings
British Legal Sector Drives Sixty Billion Pounds in Annual Economic Output While Employing Over Half a Million Professionals
Law Society Welcomes New Better Regulation Executive While Pressing for Long-Term Legal Aid Funding Reform
Metropolitan Police and Security Services Heighten Operations Across London Ahead of Large-Scale Public Demonstrations
Bank of England Economists Scrutinize Corporate Tax Adjustments and Public Sector Borrowing Pressures
Chancellor John Healey Defends Autumn Budget Tax and Spending Allocations Following Intense Parliamentary Scrutiny
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Implements Strict Water Quality Monitoring Rules Following Severe Rainfall and Flooding
Welsh Government Unveils Comprehensive Regional Housing Strategy to Address Rural Affordability and Homelessness Pressures in Cardiff
Office for National Statistics Reports Slowing Consumer Price Inflation and Steady Retail Performance Across United Kingdom Markets
Northern Ireland First Minister Michelle O'Neill and Deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly Advance Cross-Border Infrastructure Agreement in Belfast
Competition and Markets Authority Launches Formal Investigation Into Artificial Intelligence Partnerships Involving Major Technology Corporations
Scottish First Minister John Swinney Secures Cross-Party Support for Devolved Budget Framework and Renewable Energy Expansion
High Court Rules in Favor of Environmental Campaigners Over Department for Energy Security and Net Zero Licensing Procedures
National Health Service England Announces Major Digital Modernization and Artificial Intelligence Diagnostic Rollout Across Regional Trusts
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Signals Cautious Approach to Interest Rate Cuts Amid Persistent Wage Growth and Inflation Pressures
×