London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Nov 15, 2025

The voters who can't make up their minds

The voters who can't make up their minds

Will this election be decided by voters who have yet to make their mind up?

The 2017 election did not turn out the way anyone expected.

When the election was announced, polls showed the Conservatives with a massive lead over Labour.

In the end, the Conservatives lost their majority and there was a hung Parliament.

Support for Labour had steadily increased throughout the campaign.

In 2019, with just over a week to go, could undecided voters make a crucial difference at this late stage?


Is attachment to parties weakening?

It used to be the case that few people changed their minds during election campaigns. Most voters had a long-term stable psychological attachment to a political party and they voted for the same one, election after election.

This no longer seems to be the case. British Election Study data indicates that currently just 16% of Britons feel a very strong party identification. Compare this with the mid-1960s, when almost half of the UK population had a very strong party attachment.

In 1966, only about 13% of voters switched parties between elections. In 2015, that figure was 43% - and in 2017, it was 33%. Overall, across the past three elections, almost half the UK electorate (49%) voted for more than one party.

In 2017, a significant number of voters changed their minds during the campaign itself - and the same may yet happen in 2019.

A recent YouGov poll estimates 13% of the electorate who intend to vote have yet to decide for whom. This group of voters is highly likely to switch parties from last time.

Additionally, a recent Ipsos Mori poll suggested 40% of voters might still change their mind between now polling day:

28% of Conservative supporters
46% of Labour supporters
60% of Liberal Democrat supporters


What about the Brexit effect?

Brexit may well play a part in how undecided voters make up their minds, because identification as leavers or remainers appears to have outstripped party allegiance.

The British Election Study suggests 50% of people across the UK strongly identify with one side of the debate, which Prof Sir John Curtice calls the emotional legacy of Brexit.

The extent to which this election is dominated by the issue of Brexit could have a substantial impact on the result.

In 2017, Labour managed to shift the debate from Brexit to austerity.

In the process, it picked up many votes in the latter half of the campaign from younger voters and women hostile to public-spending cuts.

The dominant news stories of the past few days of this campaign - and how the parties manage to direct and shape election coverage - could be critical in helping a significant chunk of the electorate make up their mind.


Whose vote could be up for grabs?

Generally, there is little difference between men and women's electoral participation - but women are apparently more likely to be undecided voters than men.

In the run-up to the 2017 election, 18% of women and 10% of men did not know for whom to vote, according to the polls.

Men and women turned up to vote in equal proportions.

But, like many of those who made up their mind later on in the campaign, more women than men voted Labour.

In 2019, again the polls suggest a smaller proportion of women than men have made up their minds - 19% of women say they don't know for whom to vote, compared with 7% of men.

People in working-class jobs are also disproportionately represented among the undecideds - 16% say they don't know for whom to vote, compared with 12% of middle-class voters.

And these undecided working-class voters could make a significant difference to the result, especially in marginal northern English seats where Labour, Conservative, the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems are all competing for their votes.


How can the parties reach undecided voters?

There is a great deal of research suggesting the local constituency ground war, and particularly face-to-face contact, matters for mobilising voters - and traditional door-knocking works.

And although only a very small number of voters' minds are changed by local canvassing, they can make a crucial difference in marginal seats.

There also is strong evidence voters prefer candidates with local connections - research has even indicated the distance between a voter's home and the candidate's residential address is a predictor of their level of support.

General election poll tracker: How do the parties compare?
What difference will tactical voting make?
But we know much less about the impact of targeted messaging on social media.

In 2017, Labour was able to compensate for the Conservatives' greater social media spend with more boots on the ground and more individuals sharing posts for free.

We don't yet know what the fallout of the online - and offline - campaign of 2019 will be. And without a system for publicly sharing, we might never know.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Starmer Faces Growing Labour Backlash as Briefing Sparks Authority Crisis
Reform UK Withdraws from BBC Documentary Amid Legal Storm Over Trump Speech Edit
UK Prime Minister Attempts to Reassert Authority Amid Internal Labour Leadership Drama
UK Upholds Firm Rules on Stablecoins to Shield Financial System
Brussels Divided as UK-EU Reset Stalls Over Budget Access
Prince Harry’s Remembrance Day Essay Expresses Strong Regret at Leaving Britain
UK Unemployment Hits 5% as Wage Growth Slows, Paving Way for Bank of England Rate Cut
Starmer Warns of Resurgent Racism in UK Politics as He Vows Child-Poverty Reforms
UK Grocery Inflation Slows to 4.7% as Supermarkets Launch Pre-Christmas Promotions
UK Government Backs the BBC amid Editing Scandal and Trump Threat of Legal Action
UK Assessment Mis-Estimated Fallout From Palestine Action Ban, Records Reveal
UK Halts Intelligence Sharing with US Amid Lethal Boat-Strike Concerns
King Charles III Leads Britain in Remembrance Sunday Tribute to War Dead
UK Retail Sales Growth Slows as Households Hold Back Ahead of Black Friday and Budget
Shell Pulls Out of Two UK Floating Wind Projects Amid Renewables Retreat
Viagogo Hit With £15 Million Tax Bill After HMRC Transfer-Pricing Inquiry
Jaguar Land Rover Cyberattack Pinches UK GDP, Bank of England Says
UK and Germany Sound Alarm on Russian-Satellite Threat to Critical Infrastructure
Former Prince Andrew Faces U.S. Congressional Request for Testimony Amid Brexit of Royal Title
BBC Director-General Tim Davie and News CEO Deborah Turness Resign Amid Editing Controversy
Tom Cruise Arrives by Helicopter at UK Scientology Fundraiser Amid Local Protests
Prince Andrew and Sarah Ferguson Face Fresh UK Probes Amid Royal Fallout
Mothers Link Teen Suicides to AI Chatbots in Growing Legal Battle
UK Government to Mirror Denmark’s Tough Immigration Framework in Major Policy Shift
UK Government Turns to Denmark-Style Immigration Reforms to Overhaul Border Rules
UK Chancellor Warned Against Cutting Insulation Funding as Budget Looms
UK Tenant Complaints Hit Record Levels as Rental Sector Faces Mounting Pressure
Apple to Pay Google About One Billion Dollars Annually for Gemini AI to Power Next-Generation Siri
UK Signals Major Shift as Nuclear Arms Race Looms
BBC’s « Celebrity Traitors UK » Finale Breaks Records with 11.1 Million Viewers
UK Spy Case Collapse Highlights Implications for UK-Taiwan Strategic Alignment
On the Road to the Oscars? Meghan Markle to Star in a New Film
A Vote Worth a Trillion Dollars: Elon Musk’s Defining Day
AI Researchers Claim Human-Level General Intelligence Is Already Here
President Donald Trump Challenges Nigeria with Military Options Over Alleged Christian Killings
Nancy Pelosi Finally Announces She Will Not Seek Re-Election, Signalling End of Long Congressional Career
UK Pre-Budget Blues and Rate-Cut Concerns Pile Pressure on Pound
ITV Warns of Nine-Per-Cent Drop in Q4 Advertising Revenue Amid Budget Uncertainty
National Grid Posts Slightly Stronger-Than-Expected Half-Year Profit as Regulatory Investments Drive Growth
UK Business Lobby Urges Reeves to Break Tax Pledges and Build Fiscal Headroom
UK to Launch Consultation on Stablecoin Regulation on November 10
UK Savers Rush to Withdraw Pension Cash Ahead of Budget Amid Tax-Change Fears
Massive Spoilers Emerge from MAFS UK 2025: Couple Swaps, Dating App Leaks and Reunion Bombshells
Kurdish-led Crime Network Operates UK Mini-Marts to Exploit Migrants and Sell Illicit Goods
UK Income Tax Hike Could Trigger £1 Billion Cut to Scotland’s Budget, Warns Finance Secretary
Tommy Robinson Acquitted of Terror-related Charge After Phone PIN Dispute
Boris Johnson Condemns Western Support for Hamas at Jewish Community Conference
HII Welcomes UK’s Westley Group to Strengthen AUKUS Submarine Supply Chain
Tragedy in Serbia: Coach Mladen Žižović Collapses During Match and Dies at 44
Diplo Says He Dated Katy Perry — and Justin Trudeau
×