London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Jun 23, 2026

Supreme court poised to rule against Boris Johnson, say legal experts

Supreme court poised to rule against Boris Johnson, say legal experts

Framing of verdict on prorogation of parliament may set off ‘constitutional eruption of volcanic proportions’

Boris Johnson would have no option but to recall MPs to Westminster if the supreme court rules he misled the Queen, senior legal sources told the Observer yesterday.

There is a growing belief in the legal community that the court will find against the government when it hands down its momentous verdict on Johnson’s decision to prorogue parliament.

The prospect of the court finding against the prime minister has left the UK heading towards a “constitutional eruption of volcanic proportions”, according to another senior legal figure who asked not to be named. He said he also believed the case would go against the government.

Before the case, few thought the court would determine that Johnson’s advice to the Queen to suspend parliament for five weeks would be found unlawful. But over the course of the three-day hearing opinion has dramatically shifted.

“The dominant feeling among informed observers is that the government is on the ropes and it’s going to lose,” said Philippe Sands QC, professor of law at University College London.

A panel of 11 justices heard appeals arising out of two separate legal challenges in England and Scotland, in which leading judges reached different conclusions.

The court’s president, Lady Hale, has said the judges hope to give their decision early this week.

“We are solely concerned with the lawfulness of the prime minister’s decision to advise Her Majesty to prorogue parliament on the dates in question,” she said. “As we have heard, it is not a simple question, and we will now carefully consider all the arguments that have been presented to us.”

Experts were quick to identify three aspects of the case that should trouble the government. First, the judges spent a large portion of their time exploring possible remedies – what they might determine must happen if they find against the prime minister. In other cases, judges seldom devote effort to discussing remedies if they are not seriously considering finding in favour of the complainant, legal sources say.

Second, Hale’s forensic questioning of the government’s lawyer, Lord Keen, suggested she was dubious about the arguments he was presenting. Third, the fact that the court has yet to deliver a decision should send alarm bells ringing. In the words of one legal expert, “the fact they haven’t given a decision now with reasons to follow would tend to suggest the government is going to lose at some level. If they were going to find for the government, why bother stringing it out?”

Johnson has pledged to abide by the ruling, but Keen refused to rule out that the government might suspend parliament again ahead of the Brexit deadline next month. Whatever the court decides will prove explosive. Lawyers opposing the government have claimed that Johnson’s action was illegal, saying the “exceptionally long” prorogation was intended to “silence” parliament.

But Keen, on behalf of the government, submitted that the courts “must not cross the boundaries and intrude upon the business of parliament”.

Sands said the crucial question was what remedy the court would suggest if it did find against the government. Much will rest on the detail in the court’s decision and how it is framed. If the court determines that Johnson misled the Queen, that would make his position untenable, according to Dominic Grieve, the former Conservative attorney general.

But the court might choose to frame its verdict around whether Johnson’s decision stymied the passage of legislation through parliament, which is potentially less incendiary.

If the court does find against the government, its lawyers will be scrutinising the decision to see if they can go back and order a second prorogation on other grounds.

It means that this week’s decision is unlikely to be the end of the matter, whatever the justices decide.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Taxpayer Support Grows for Higher Digital Levies on Multinational Tech Companies
Bank of England Signals Caution Over Inflation Despite Easing Energy Prices
Lloyds Banking Group Expands Artificial Intelligence Hiring Amid Sector-Wide Automation Shift
Film Producer Corporate Collapse Leaves Creditors Facing Unrecoverable Losses
UK Ten-Year Brexit Anniversary Highlights Ongoing Political and Economic Uncertainty
Nottingham Maternity Scandal Inquiry Reveals Systemic Failings in NHS Care
Met Office Heatwave Prompts Public Health Warnings Across United Kingdom
Concerns Rise Over Fiscal Stability as Political Uncertainty Weighs on UK Borrowing Costs
UK Taxpayers Back Higher Digital Taxes on Global Technology Firms, Survey Shows
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates Steady Amid Persistent Services Inflation
Reform UK and Opposition Leaders Call for General Election Following Starmer’s Departure
Ten Years After Brexit Referendum, UK Faces Ongoing Political Fragmentation and Economic Debate
Nottingham University Hospitals Maternity Inquiry Exposes Severe NHS Failures
Met Office Issues Heat Health Alerts as United Kingdom Faces Record-Breaking Temperatures
Andy Burnham Emerges as Front-Runner for Labour Leadership After Starmer’s Resignation
Keir Starmer Resigns as UK Enters New Phase of Political Leadership Transition
UK Expands Alcohol Ban Enforcement Using Tagging Technology Ahead of World Cup
UK Invests £50 Million in Critical Minerals Supply Chain Security
UK Appoints Special Envoy on Preventing Sexual Violence in Conflict
UK Introduces Fines for Landlords of Unsafe Rental Properties
Reform UK Leads Opinion Polls as Immigration Debate Reshapes UK Politics
Police Investigate Edinburgh Attacks as Potential Hate Crimes
King Charles to Publish Personal Tax and Royal Household Financial Records
Nottingham University Hospitals Maternity Inquiry Report Set for Publication
Heat-Health Alerts Issued Across London and Southern England Amid Rising Temperatures
UK Economy Shows Pressure From Middle East Conflict Despite Modest Growth
Brexit Anniversary Reignites Debate Over UK Economic and Political Direction
UK Parliament Continues Legislative Work Amid Leadership Transition
Financial Markets Hold Steady After UK Leadership Shake-Up
Andy Burnham Enters Labour Leadership Race With Strong Parliamentary Backing
Keir Starmer Resigns as UK Prime Minister After Two Years in Office
Reform UK MP Lee Anderson to Raise Pension Concerns Over British Coal Staff Superannuation Scheme
UK Parliament to Debate Newborn Screening for Spinal Muscular Atrophy Following Public Petition
Met Office Warns of Water Safety Risks During Heatwave as Temperatures Peak in England
Treasury Increases Mileage Allowance Payments for 2026–27 Tax Year to 55 Pence Per Mile
UK Government Raises Electricity Generator Levy to 55 Percent in New Revenue Measure
House of Lords Moves Financial Services and Markets Bill to Committee Stage Amid Regulatory Scrutiny
Westminster Hall to Debate Petition on Pro-Israel Influence in UK Politics
UK Parliament Prepares for Estimates Days Debates as Backbench Business Schedule Approved
Armed Forces Bill Nears Final Stages in UK House of Commons With Military Justice Reforms
Donald Trump Comments on UK Political Situation, Citing Immigration and Energy Policy Concerns
Andy Burnham By-Election Victory Fuels Speculation Over Potential Labour Leadership Contest
UK Economy Shows Resilience but Faces Headwinds from Middle East Tensions, UK Finance Says
UK Parliament Opens Week of Debates on Net Zero, Security and Armed Forces Reform
Met Office Issues Amber Extreme Heat Warning as Temperatures Expected to Reach 35C Across England and Wales
Prime Minister Keir Starmer Faces Mounting Leadership Pressure After Makerfield By-Election Defeat
London Hotel Wins World’s Best Afternoon Tea Award at International Hospitality Guide La Liste
Court of Appeal Rules in Favour of Competition and Markets Authority in Phenytoin Drug Case
Chichester Waste Site Suspended After Environment Agency Finds Serious Fire and Pollution Risks
UK Appoints Chris Elmore as Special Envoy on Preventing Sexual Violence in Conflict
×