London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Sep 18, 2025

Second Scottish independence referendum: what happens next?

Second Scottish independence referendum: what happens next?

SNP will face hurdles and risks in efforts to hold second Scottish vote on leaving the union

Scotland’s first minister and SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon made a significant statement on progress towards a second independence referendum at Holyrood on Tuesday, sending a personal email to the party’s estimated 119,000 members that said: “The referendum campaign starts here.”

Here we outline Sturgeon’s next steps, and the hurdles that the Scottish government may face in the near future.

What did Sturgeon announce?


Sturgeon told MSPs the Scottish government wants to stage a second independence referendum on 19 October 2023, using the same question put to voters in 2014: “Should Scotland be an independent country?”

Sturgeon said Scotland’s lord advocate, Dorothy Bain QC, has written to the supreme court asking it to rule on the legality of holding a new referendum without Westminster’s permission.

She also wrote to Boris Johnson formally requesting that Westminster gives Holyrood the legal powers to legislate for another vote under section 30 of the Scotland Act. That process was used in the 2014 referendum and has been consistently described as the “the gold standard” by Sturgeon.

What happens now?


The UK government has repeated its position that “now is not the time” for a second referendum because of the cost of living crisis, the Covid recovery and the war in Ukraine.

The supreme court is unlikely to rule on this question before its summer break on 29 July, but many constitutional lawyers believe it will decide it would be unlawful for Holyrood to stage such a vote without section 30 powers.

The court could also refuse to make any ruling until the bill has been passed by Holyrood, which would put Sturgeon’s target date of 19 October 2023 under significant pressure.

Opposition parties believe this is a risky strategy for the SNP, because it means that if Sturgeon loses this case, she cannot blame her opponents. Sturgeon is adamant that this strategy shows she is taking the initiative and showing leadership. It also means, however, that she has to take responsibility if the gambit fails.

What happens if it’s refused?


Sturgeon also told MSPs that the SNP would make the next UK general election “a de facto referendum” in which her party would be mandated to start independence talks with the UK government if it won a majority of votes.

This was instantly dismissed as “campaign rhetoric” by constitutional experts, who point out that an election does not have the same force or meaning as a referendum, and contradicts her previous insistence that such a vote should be legally and internationally recognised.

It is also politically risky. Until now, Sturgeon has consistently argued that every SNP election victory gave her party a mandate to call a referendum. It has won every election in Scotland since 2007, but only once come close to winning 50% of the vote, when it hit 49.97% in 2015.

Sturgeon’s opponents believe her proposal to hang the SNP’s entire election campaign on independence is a gift. It will energise Tory voters who oppose independence, and allow Labour, the Lib Dems and Tories to focus on domestic issues that she would sideline.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
US Tech Giants Pledge Billions to UK AI Infrastructure Following Starmer's Call
Saudi Arabia cracks down on music ‘lounges’ after conservative backlash
DeepMind and OpenAI Achieve Gold at ‘Coding Olympics’ in AI Milestone
SEC Allows Public Companies to Block Investors from Class-Action Lawsuits
Saudi Arabia Signs ‘Strategic Mutual Defence’ Pact with Pakistan, Marking First Arab State to Gain Indirect Access to Nuclear Strike Capabilities in the Region
Federal Reserve Cuts Rates by Quarter Point and Signals More to Come
Effective and Impressive Generation Z Protest: Images from the Riots in Nepal
European manufacturers against ban on polluting cars: "The industry may collapse"
Sam Altman sells the 'Wedding Estate' in Hawaii for 49 million dollars
Trump: Cancel quarterly company reports and settle for reporting once every six months
Turkish car manufacturer Togg Enters German Market with 5-Star Electric Sedan and SUV to Challenge European EV Brands
US Launches New Pilot Program to Accelerate eVTOL Air Taxi Deployment
Christian Brueckner Released from German Prison after Serving Unrelated Sentence
World’s Longest Direct Flight China Eastern to Launch 29-Hour Shanghai–Buenos Aires Direct Flight via Auckland in December
New OpenAI Study Finds Majority of ChatGPT Use Is Personal, Not Professional
Hong Kong Industry Group Calls for HK$20 Billion Support Fund to Ease Property Market Stress
Joe Biden’s Post-Presidency Speaking Fees Face Weak Demand amid Corporate Reluctance
Charlie Kirk's murder will break the left's hateful cancel tactics
Kash Patel erupts at ‘buffoon’ Sen. Adam Schiff over Russiagate: ‘You are the biggest fraud’
Homeland Security says Emmy speech ‘fanning the flames of hatred’ after Einbinder’s ‘F— ICE’ remark
Charlie Kirk’s Alleged Assassin Tyler Robinson Faces Death Penalty as Charges Formally Announced
Actor, director, environmentalist Robert Redford dies at 89
The conservative right spreads westward: a huge achievement for 'Alternative for Germany' in local elections
JD Vance Says There Is “No Unity” with Those Who Celebrate Charlie Kirk’s Killing, and he is right!
Trump sues the 'New York Times' for an astronomical sum of 15 billion dollars
Florida Hospital Welcomes Its Largest-Ever Baby: Annan, Nearly Fourteen Pounds at Birth
U.S. and Britain Poised to Finalize Over $10 Billion in High-Tech, Nuclear and Defense Deals During Trump State Visit
China Finds Nvidia Violated Antitrust Laws in Mellanox Deal, Deepens Trade Tensions with US
US Air Force Begins Modifications on Qatar-Donated Jet Amid Plans to Use It as Air Force One
Pope Leo Warns of Societal Crisis Over Mega-CEO Pay, Citing Tesla’s Proposed Trillion-Dollar Package
Poland Green-Lights NATO Deployment in Response to Major Russian Drone Incursion
Elon Musk Retakes Lead as World’s Richest After Brief Ellison Surge
U.S. and China Agree on Framework to Shift TikTok to American Ownership
London Daily Podcast: London Massive Pro Democracy Rally, Musk Support, UK Economic Data and Premier League Results Mark Eventful Weekend
This Week in AI: Meta’s Superintelligence Push, xAI’s Ten Billion-Dollar Raise, Genesis AI’s Robotics Ambitions, Microsoft Restructuring, Amazon’s Million-Robot Milestone, and Google’s AlphaGenome Update
Le Pen Tightens the Pressure on Macron as France Edges Toward Political Breakdown
Musk calls for new UK government at huge pro-democracy rally in London, but Britons have been brainwashed to obey instead of fighting for their human rights
Elon Musk responds to post calling for the murder of Erika Kirk, widow of Charlie Kirk: 'Either we fight back or they will kill us'
Czech Republic signs €1.34 billion contract for Leopard 2A8 main battle tanks with delivery from 2028
USA: Office Depot Employees Refused to Print Poster in Memory of Charlie Kirk – and Were Fired
Proposed U.S. Bill Would Allow Civil Suits Against Judges Who Release Repeat Violent Offenders
Penske Media Sues Google Over “AI Overviews,” Claiming It Uses Journalism Without Consent and Destroys Traffic
Indian Student Engineers Propose “Project REBIRTH” to Protect Aircraft from Crashes Using AI, Airbags and Smart Materials
French Debt Downgrade Piles Pressure on Macron’s New Prime Minister
US and UK Near Tech, Nuclear and Whisky Deals Ahead of Trump Trip
One in Three Europeans Now Uses TikTok, According to the Chinese Tech Giant
Could AI Nursing Robots Help Healthcare Staffing Shortages?
NATO Deploys ‘Eastern Sentry’ After Russian Drones Violate Polish Airspace
Anesthesiologist Left Operation Mid-Surgery to Have Sex with Nurse
Tens of Thousands of Young Chinese Get Up Every Morning and Go to Work Where They Do Nothing
×