London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Sep 11, 2026

One in three councils using algorithms to make welfare decisions

One in three councils using algorithms to make welfare decisions

One in three councils are using computer algorithms to help make decisions about benefit claims and other welfare issues, despite evidence emerging that some of the systems are unreliable.
Companies including the US credit-rating businesses Experian and TransUnion, as well as the outsourcing specialist Capita and Palantir, a data-mining firm co-founded by the Trump-supporting billionaire Peter Thiel, are selling machine-learning packages to local authorities that are under pressure to save money.

A Guardian investigation has established that 140 councils out of 408 have now invested in the software contracts, which can run into millions of pounds, more than double the previous estimates.

The systems are being deployed to provide automated guidance on benefit claims, prevent child abuse and allocate school places. But concerns have been raised about privacy and data security, the ability of council officials to understand how some of the systems work, and the difficulty for citizens in challenging automated decisions.

It has emerged North Tyneside council has dropped TransUnion, whose system it used to check housing and council tax benefit claims. Welfare payments to an unknown number of people were wrongly delayed when the computer’s “predictive analytics” erroneously identified low-risk claims as high risk.

Meanwhile, Hackney council in east London has dropped Xantura, another company, from a project to predict child abuse and intervene before it happens, saying it did not deliver the expected benefits. And Sunderland city council has not renewed a £4.5m data analytics contract for an “intelligence hub” provided by Palantir.

A spokesperson for the Local Government Association, which represents councils, said: “Good use of data can be hugely beneficial in helping councils make services more targeted and effective But it is important to note that data is only ever used to inform decisions and not make decisions for councils.”

But Silkie Carlo, the director of the campaign group Big Brother Watch, said the increasing use of algorithms was leaving vulnerable people at the whim of “automated decisions … they have no idea about and can’t challenge”.

Gwilym Morris, a management consultant who works with IT providers to the public sector, said the complexity of the systems meant the leadership of local authorities “don’t really understand what is going on” and this raised questions about how citizens’ data was used.

North Tyneside stopped using TransUnion’s system last month. It automatically processed data about claimants for housing and council tax benefit to determine the likelihood it was fraudulent – “risk based verification”. But most of the cases deemed high risk by the software were in fact lower risk, and benefit claims were wrongly delayed.

A council report concluded: “TransUnion provides no reason for a case meeting a high-risk category and it was found that in most cases, the reason for it being high risk could not be established There was no reason for the payment to be withheld, but claims had been delayed.”

A spokesperson for TransUnion said the classification of risk groups was “ultimately a matter for the local authorities to decide”.

They added: “Each local authority also determines what extra checks are required for claimants falling into any particular category, and can monitor for accuracy so that they can adapt their criteria if necessary.

“The time spent on reviewing ‘high-risk’ claims will equally depend on each local authority’s own policy in terms of processing the additional checks.”

TransUnion said it checked benefit claims for fraud for about 70 local authorities in the UK, and Xantura serves the same number of councils. The combined figure does not include other examples of algorithms found by the Data Justice Lab at Cardiff University.

Sunderland council awarded a contract for a new “intelligence hub” to Palantir in 2014 as part of a plan to make efficiency savings. Last year, it was announced the authority faces a budget gap of about £50m over the next three years.

The hub was used to analyse data to help with the Troubled Families programme, to bring together information on those at risk of sexual exploitation, and to help find areas at risk of flooding. The council said it did not hold a review of the project and did not know how much had been saved.

A council spokesperson said it was always the authority’s intention not to renew the contract and Palantir had worked alongside staff to transfer knowledge so the council would become “self-sufficient”.

Hackney council said “issues of variable data quality meant that the system wasn’t able to provide sufficiently useful insights”.

The Xantura predictive model analyses warning signs about a household, such as a child being expelled from school or a report of domestic violence. The model’s prediction is then passed to a social worker for potential action.

Wajid Shafiq, the chief executive of Xantura, said: “We’re improving the accuracy of our analytics and models continuously but we have never been unable to develop a reliable predictive model.

“There are a number in place right now, adding real value. Not being able to access regular updates of source data to drive the model is a bigger issue – if we don’t get regular feeds, we can’t provide an up-to-date picture of risk factors.”

Simon Burall, a senior associate with the public participation charity Involve, said: “There are never just benefits from these things but risks and harms, namely privacy and data security.

“But also potential wider unintended consequences, including the stigmatisation of communities and unwanted intrusion by particular services. Any benefits must be balanced against those potential risks.”

David Spiegelhalter, a former president of the Royal Statistical Society, said: “There is too much hype and mystery surrounding machine learning and algorithms. I feel that councils should demand trustworthy and transparent explanations of how any system works, why it comes to specific conclusions about individuals, whether it is fair, and whether it will actually help in practice.”
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
John Lewis Partnership Loss Widens to £124 Million
UK Government to Put White Working-Class Social Mobility at Centre of Equality Policy
McLaren Plans £450 Million Technology Investment Creating 1,000 UK Jobs
UK Chancellor Faces Calls for Wealth Taxes and Public Ownership in Autumn Budget
English Mayors to Gain Powers to Impose Uncapped Overnight Tourist Taxes
JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon Warns UK Government Against Bank Windfall Taxes
UK Air Traffic Control Outage Cancels More Than 2,000 Flights
UK Imposes Trade Ban on Israeli Settlements in the West Bank
UK Borrowing Costs Surge as Middle East Tensions Push Long-Term Gilt Yields to Highest Since 1998
Buckingham Palace Says Prince Harry and Meghan Will Not Resume Official Royal Duties
UK Treasury Faces Calls to Scrap £100,000 Childcare Support Threshold
Trades Union Congress Urges Labour Government to Rewrite Migration Policy
Riot Police Deployed After Anti-Migrant Protests Turn Violent in Portsmouth
UK Considers Replacing Some Disability Cash Payments With Direct Services
JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon Warns UK Chancellor Against Higher Banking Taxes
UK Announces New Sanctions Targeting Israeli Settlements in West Bank
Metropolitan Police Investigate Alleged Illegal Donations to Reform UK
UK Charges Wiltshire Man With Assisting Russian Intelligence
UK Orders Urgent Review After Air Traffic Failure Cancels More Than 2,000 Flights
Merz Rebukes AfD Expansion in Saxony-Anhalt
King Charles Confirms Prince Harry and Meghan Will Remain Private Citizens
Labour Selects Former Child Refugee for By-Election in Keir Starmer’s Former Seat
Foreign Private Equity Accelerates Takeovers of London-Listed Industrial Companies
NHS Maternity Care Faces Scrutiny Over Support for Mothers After Caesarean Births
BBC Warns Staff Strikes Are Likely Amid Job Cuts and Programme Cancellations
English Housing Affordability Improves to Best Level in More Than a Decade
UK Health Commission Proposes Framework for Wider AI Adoption Across NHS
Labour Faces Pressure for Wealth Tax Ahead of Autumn Budget
Metropolitan Police Open Criminal Investigation Into Alleged Foreign Donations to Reform UK
UK Police Deploy Riot Officers After Anti-Immigration Unrest in Portsmouth and Dover
UK Defends Sanctions on Israeli Settlements Despite Diplomatic Retaliation
UK Air Traffic Control Failure Cancels More Than 1,000 Flights and Disrupts 65,000 Passengers
Compass Urges £10 Million Wealth Tax and Public Ownership Ahead of UK Autumn Budget
UK Government’s Devolution Plans Face House of Lords Scrutiny
Maldives Seeks New Chagos Sovereignty Talks With UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham
UK Airports Face Continuing Disruption After National Air Traffic Control Failure
UK Bans Imports From Israeli Settlements and Expands Sanctions on Iran
British Chambers of Commerce Forecasts UK Growth of 1% as Investment Remains Weak
UK Suspends Local Government Reorganisation Decisions and Cancels Planned Shadow Authority Polls
UK Parliament Opens Inquiry Into Gaps in Climate Change Preparedness
Andy Burnham and Xi Jinping Hold Talks on Trade, Security and British Consular Cases
UK Joins France, Canada and Other Nations in Measures Against Israeli West Bank Settlements
UK Announces New Sanctions Targeting Iranian Nuclear and Military Networks
British Chambers of Commerce Calls for Business Rate Reform and Productivity Support
UK Farmers Warn Dry Summer Could Reduce Crop Yields and Push Up Food Prices
UK Rail Networks Hit by Widespread Delays After Major Signalling Failures
Matt Clifford Resigns as ARIA Chair After Conflict-of-Interest Scrutiny
UK and France Say Joint Border Operations Have Prevented More Than 48,000 Irregular Channel Crossings
UK Core Inflation Remains Above Expectations as Utility and Commodity Costs Stay Elevated
Jaguar Land Rover Considers Up to 4,000 UK Job Cuts Amid Automotive Industry Pressure
×