London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Nov 25, 2025

NI Protocol: Will Rishi Sunak's deal pass DUP checkpoint?

NI Protocol: Will Rishi Sunak's deal pass DUP checkpoint?

Rishi Sunak started the week in the green lane heading for a deal and ended up trapped in the red lane with no clear path out.

The prime minister thought he had his paperwork complete after months of delicate negotiation.

All he needed was clearance from the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and his backbench Brexiteer MPs before signing off with the EU.

But, as his predecessors at Number 10 discovered, dealing with the DUP is challenging.

Thanks to those same predecessors, trust between DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the Tory leadership has been slowly eroded.

That is why the party was not moved by the assurances offered by the prime minister in the House of Commons on Wednesday.

"We've heard the same warm words from the same dispatch box before, it counts for nothing," said one DUP MP.

That is why the DUP leader warned against "tweaking" the protocol and demanded the "legally binding text" be rewritten.

Sir Jeffrey Donaldson led a DUP delegation to meet the PM near Belfast on Monday

Unless the DUP can read it in a bill, they can't sell it.

While sidestepping that part of Sir Jeffrey's question, the prime minister hinted in another answer that legislative changes are in the mix.

That will be key for the DUP to be able say the old Northern Ireland Protocol is gone.

But any changes will come in the form of new legislation "overlaying" what has gone before both in London and Brussels.

Overlay but not replace.

So the EU will equally be able to say the original protocol text remains.

Nuances like that matter when it comes spinning and disguising compromises if we ever reach the point of a deal.

Judging by the Westminster whispers this week that is far from clear.

There is real concern among some less vocal Tories that a deal which was within touching distance could slip through their grasp.

Some of those non-European Research Group (ERG) MPs question why the Prime Minister is spending so much political capital on an issue which does not stir their voters at a time when other more pressing issues need attention.

The protocol does not appear in Mr Sunak's five key priorities and there is a budget looming within weeks.

"There are some on our back benches who are certifiable and Mr Sunak needs to stand up to them" said one frustrated Tory.

After briefing heavily that the deal was to be published this week, Team Sunak are now in crisis management.

The daily calls with European Commission Vice-President Maros Sefcovic on the surface suggest Brussels is being squeezed for more concessions, but equally it could be for the optics ahead of a deal being agreed next week.


Real progress?


Mr Sunak has invested too much to walk away.

He cannot sit on a deal which provides much needed remedies for businesses struggling under the burden of the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Plus, he is desperate to bank the gains he has secured.

That may include taking back control of state aid, VAT and other tax breaks in Northern Ireland which, under the protocol, fell to Brussels.

That was leaked this week and was not totally discounted by sources in Brussels.

Such leaks are useful in countering back bench and DUP pressure in the absence of publishing the deal.

Could this be one of the important areas where Sir Jeffrey Donaldson told us real progress has been made?

But what the prime minister really needs is for the DUP to hold back on its verdict of any deal.

This would allow the government time to win over business leaders and other stake holders before the DUP passes judgement.

But if the government is to secure its goal of restoring the Stormont institutions then the DUP will have to be won over at some stage

The party is expecting the deal to be published early next week and it will likely flag concerns but reserve full judgement until it sees any accompanying legal text

With a council election looming in May, rejecting the deal is the easiest option for Sir Jeffrey.

But saying no is not a long term sustainable position and that is the calculation the government will be banking on .

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Economy Stalls as Reeves Faces First Budget Test
UK Economy’s Weak Start Adds Pressure on Prime Minister Starmer
UK Government Acknowledges Billionaire Exodus Amid Tax Rise Concerns
UK Budget 2025: Markets Brace as Chancellor Faces Fiscal Tightrope
UK Unveils Strategic Plan to Secure Critical Mineral Supply Chains
UK Taskforce Calls for Radical Reset of Nuclear Regulation to Cut Costs and Accelerate Build
UK Government Launches Consultation on Major Overhaul of Settlement Rules
Google Struggles to Meet AI Demand as Infrastructure, Energy and Supply-Chain Gaps Deepen
Car Parts Leader Warns Europe Faces Heavy Job Losses in ‘Darwinian’ Auto Shake-Out
Arsenal Move Six Points Clear After Eze’s Historic Hat-Trick in Derby Rout
Wealthy New Yorkers Weigh Second Homes as the ‘Mamdani Effect’ Ripples Through Luxury Markets
Families Accuse OpenAI of Enabling ‘AI-Driven Delusions’ After Multiple Suicides
UK Unveils Critical-Minerals Strategy to Break China Supply-Chain Grip
Taylor Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia” Extends U.K. No. 1 Run to Five Weeks
UK VPN Sign-Ups Surge by Over 1,400 % as Age-Verification Law Takes Effect
Former MEP Nathan Gill Jailed for Over Ten Years After Taking Pro-Russia Bribes
Majority of UK Entrepreneurs Regard Government as ‘Anti-Business’, Survey Shows
UK’s Starmer and US President Trump Align as Geneva Talks Probe Ukraine Peace Plan
UK Prime Minister Signals Former Prince Andrew Should Testify to US Epstein Inquiry
Royal Navy Deploys HMS Severn to Shadow Russian Corvette and Tanker Off UK Coast
China’s Wedding Boom: Nightclubs, Mountains and a Demographic Reset
Fugees Founding Member Pras Michel Sentenced to 14 Years in High-Profile US Foreign Influence Case
WhatsApp’s Unexpected Rise Reshapes American Messaging Habits
United States: Judge Dressed Up as Elvis During Hearings – and Was Forced to Resign
Johnson Blasts ‘Incoherent’ Covid Inquiry Findings Amid Report’s Harsh Critique of His Government
Lord Rothermere Secures £500 Million Deal to Acquire Telegraph Titles
Maduro Tightens Security Measures as U.S. Strike Threat Intensifies
U.S. Envoys Deliver Ultimatum to Ukraine: Sign Peace Deal by Thursday or Risk Losing American Support
Zelenskyy Signals Progress Toward Ending the War: ‘One of the Hardest Moments in History’ (end of his business model?)
U.S. Issues Alert Declaring Venezuelan Airspace a Hazard Due to Escalating Security Conditions
The U.S. State Department Announces That Mass Migration Constitutes an Existential Threat to Western Civilization and Undermines the Stability of Key American Allies
Students Challenge AI-Driven Teaching at University of Staffordshire
Pikeville Medical Center Partners with UK’s Golisano Children’s Network to Expand Pediatric Care
Germany, France and UK Confirm Full Support for Ukraine in US-Backed Security Plan
UK Low-Traffic Neighbourhoods Face Rising Backlash as Pandemic Schemes Unravel
UK Records Coldest Night of Autumn as Sub-Zero Conditions Sweep the Country
UK at Risk of Losing International Doctors as Workforce Exodus Grows, Regulator Warns
ASU Launches ASU London, Extending Its Innovation Brand to the UK Education Market
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer to Visit China in January as Diplomatic Reset Accelerates
Google Launches Voluntary Buyouts for UK Staff Amid AI-Driven Company Realignment
UK braces for freezing snap as snow and ice warnings escalate
Majority of UK Novelists Fear AI Could Displace Their Work, Cambridge Study Finds
UK's Carrier Strike Group Achieves Full Operational Capability During NATO Drill in Mediterranean
Trump and Mamdani to Meet at the White House: “The Communist Asked”
Nvidia Again Beats Forecasts, Shares Jump in After-Hours Trading
Wintry Conditions Persist Along UK Coasts After Up to Seven Centimetres of Snow
UK Inflation Eases to 3.6 % in October, Opening Door for Rate Cut
UK Accelerates Munitions Factory Build-Out to Reinforce Warfighting Readiness
UK Consumer Optimism Plunges Ahead of November Budget
A Decade of Innovation Stagnation at Apple: The Cook Era Critique
×