London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Aug 25, 2026

NI Protocol: Will Rishi Sunak's deal pass DUP checkpoint?

NI Protocol: Will Rishi Sunak's deal pass DUP checkpoint?

Rishi Sunak started the week in the green lane heading for a deal and ended up trapped in the red lane with no clear path out.

The prime minister thought he had his paperwork complete after months of delicate negotiation.

All he needed was clearance from the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and his backbench Brexiteer MPs before signing off with the EU.

But, as his predecessors at Number 10 discovered, dealing with the DUP is challenging.

Thanks to those same predecessors, trust between DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson and the Tory leadership has been slowly eroded.

That is why the party was not moved by the assurances offered by the prime minister in the House of Commons on Wednesday.

"We've heard the same warm words from the same dispatch box before, it counts for nothing," said one DUP MP.

That is why the DUP leader warned against "tweaking" the protocol and demanded the "legally binding text" be rewritten.

Sir Jeffrey Donaldson led a DUP delegation to meet the PM near Belfast on Monday

Unless the DUP can read it in a bill, they can't sell it.

While sidestepping that part of Sir Jeffrey's question, the prime minister hinted in another answer that legislative changes are in the mix.

That will be key for the DUP to be able say the old Northern Ireland Protocol is gone.

But any changes will come in the form of new legislation "overlaying" what has gone before both in London and Brussels.

Overlay but not replace.

So the EU will equally be able to say the original protocol text remains.

Nuances like that matter when it comes spinning and disguising compromises if we ever reach the point of a deal.

Judging by the Westminster whispers this week that is far from clear.

There is real concern among some less vocal Tories that a deal which was within touching distance could slip through their grasp.

Some of those non-European Research Group (ERG) MPs question why the Prime Minister is spending so much political capital on an issue which does not stir their voters at a time when other more pressing issues need attention.

The protocol does not appear in Mr Sunak's five key priorities and there is a budget looming within weeks.

"There are some on our back benches who are certifiable and Mr Sunak needs to stand up to them" said one frustrated Tory.

After briefing heavily that the deal was to be published this week, Team Sunak are now in crisis management.

The daily calls with European Commission Vice-President Maros Sefcovic on the surface suggest Brussels is being squeezed for more concessions, but equally it could be for the optics ahead of a deal being agreed next week.


Real progress?


Mr Sunak has invested too much to walk away.

He cannot sit on a deal which provides much needed remedies for businesses struggling under the burden of the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Plus, he is desperate to bank the gains he has secured.

That may include taking back control of state aid, VAT and other tax breaks in Northern Ireland which, under the protocol, fell to Brussels.

That was leaked this week and was not totally discounted by sources in Brussels.

Such leaks are useful in countering back bench and DUP pressure in the absence of publishing the deal.

Could this be one of the important areas where Sir Jeffrey Donaldson told us real progress has been made?

But what the prime minister really needs is for the DUP to hold back on its verdict of any deal.

This would allow the government time to win over business leaders and other stake holders before the DUP passes judgement.

But if the government is to secure its goal of restoring the Stormont institutions then the DUP will have to be won over at some stage

The party is expecting the deal to be published early next week and it will likely flag concerns but reserve full judgement until it sees any accompanying legal text

With a council election looming in May, rejecting the deal is the easiest option for Sir Jeffrey.

But saying no is not a long term sustainable position and that is the calculation the government will be banking on .

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
German Broadcaster Goes Dark to Warn AfD Could End Its Saxony-Anhalt Service
Premier League Season Opens With Managerial Debuts and Dramatic Early Fixtures
England Cricket Drops Brydon Carse From Selection Pending Club Investigation
Graeme Dott Convicted of Child Sexual Abuse Offences in Scotland
Protesters Occupy British Aircraft Parts Factory Over Alleged Military Links to Israel
More Than 100 Former British and French Diplomats Call for Sanctions on Israel
Ipsos Poll Shows British Public Split Between Immigration Controls and Economic Growth
British Cybersecurity Agencies Raise Alert Over Growing Threats to Critical Infrastructure
Two-Thirds of England Now Under Official Drought Conditions After Prolonged Summer Heat
Institute of Directors Calls for Urgent Action to Revive Britain’s Stagnant Labour Market
Andy Burnham Visits Kyiv on First Foreign Trip and Pledges Continued British Support for Ukraine
New Daily Diabetes and Weight-Loss Pill Launches in UK Pharmacies
UK Payroll Employment Falls by 94,000 as Labour Market Cools
Onshore Wind Planning Applications in England Reach Ten-Year High After Rules Eased
UK Government Demands Social Media Platforms Remove Dangerous Driving Content After A66 Crash
Thames Water Creditors Face Backlash Over Proposed Corporate Restructuring
Twelve Arrested After Fatal A66 Crash Linked to Organised Crime Investigation
UK Household Energy Debt Could Reach £7 Billion by Year-End
UK Defence Ministry to Use Ukraine Battlefield Data to Train AI Security Systems
UK Government Redirects £4 Billion of Affordable Homes Funding Away From Social Housing
UK Government Borrowing Reaches £1.8 Billion in July, Exceeding Forecasts
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham Pledges Advanced Missile Support for Ukraine
8Bank of England Holds Interest Rate at 3.75% as Middle East Energy Risks Rise
Prime Minister Andy Burnham to Give Ukraine Classified Storm Shadow Blueprints for Domestic Missile Production
UK Graduate Job Vacancies Plunge 45% to Lowest Levels on Record
Government Audit Reveals Pressure on UK Hospitality From Business Rates and Rising Costs
Kindertransport Survivor Prepares to Revisit European Sites Linked to Her Family’s Wartime Separation
Northern England Transport Operators Strengthen Contingency Plans as Travel Demand Rises
New Implant Trials Offer Treatment Prospects for Patients With Refractory Angina
South Wales Reviews Wildfire Response After Exceptionally Dry Summer
UK Treasury Prepares Autumn Fiscal Statement Amid Spending and Defense Pressures
Norfolk Records First Wild Beaver Births in More Than Five Hundred Years
Historic Portrait of Benjamin Disraeli Reported Missing From Parliament’s Art Collection
Five People, Including Police Officers, Killed in A66 Crash as Families Pay Tribute
Most English Secondary Schools Found to Fall Short of National Healthy Food Standards
UK Think Tank Says Productivity Growth May Be Stronger Than Official Data Shows
Reform Party Proposes Lower Social Housing Priority for Foreign-Born UK Citizens
UK Government Plans Business Rate Overhaul to Ease Pressure on Pubs and Hotels
New Daily Diabetes and Weight-Loss Pill Launches Across NHS Pharmacies in England
UK Graduate Job Vacancies Fall to Lowest Level in a Decade
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham Visits Kyiv to Reaffirm Long-Term Military Support for Ukraine
Iranian Hackers Shut Down British Power Plant for Four Days in Landmark Cyber Attack
Novak Djokovic Reveals Relentless Self-Doubt and Rejects Retirement in New Documentary
Trump Imposes 50% Tariffs on Canadian Goods After Bilateral Trade Talks Collapse
First Bus Bars Unaccompanied Under-Sixteens From Evening Services in Stoke-on-Trent
Lithium-Ion Battery Fires Cost UK Waste Sector About One Billion Pounds a Year
Reform UK Proposes Lower Social Housing Priority for Foreign-Born Naturalised Citizens
UK Government Deploys AI Drones in Crackdown on Illegal Waste Dumping
EU Biometric Border Checks Cause Disruption for British Travellers and Freight Operators
UK Expands Voluntary Drug Treatment Programme for Sex Offenders to Twenty Prisons
×