London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Nov 06, 2026

Liberal Democrats eye blue wall seats in wake of Tory turmoil

Liberal Democrats eye blue wall seats in wake of Tory turmoil

It can be hard for the Liberal Democrats to make themselves heard at the best of times, but recently the party has been particularly unlucky.

For two years running the Lib Dems have been unable to gather in person for their annual conference, while other parties' events went ahead - robbing them of a guaranteed moment in the media spotlight.

The aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2021 and the death of the Queen this year left them with little choice but to cancel the biggest event in their calendar.

This weekend, party leader Sir Ed Davey is touring Lib Dem target seats and will make a speech in London in an attempt to renew his offer to voters.

But languishing a distant third in opinion polls and with only 14 MPs, where does the party sit after months of political turmoil at Westminster?


Beyond the blue wall?


Party insiders point to a run of by-election wins and bold policy pitches as proof the Lib Dems are able to punch above their political weight.

A surprise victory in the Conservative seat of Chesham and Amersham in June 2021 was followed by wins in other Tory strongholds - North Shropshire later that year and Tiverton and Honiton in June.

The Liberal Democrats hope to replicate this across the so-called 'blue wall' of Conservative-held seats with more affluent and higher educated populations that voted largely to remain in the EU.

Top of the list is Wimbledon, where the party lost by just 628 votes in 2019. The Lib Dems report plenty of anti-Conservative sentiment on the doorstep in the leafy south London enclave which returned a Labour MP in 1997 but has been held by the Tories since 2005.

One campaigner was told by a life-long Conservative voter they regretted supporting the party in 2019 and were "ready for change", summing up similar sentiment from others.

But conscious of becoming pigeon-holed as a political refuge for liberal Conservative voters fed up with the direction under Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and now Rishi Sunak, the Lib Dems are keen to stress their electoral ambitions extend beyond the south of England.

In Greater Manchester, for example, the party is looking to build on second place finishes in 2019 in Cheadle and Hazel Grove, where it recently took control of Stockport Borough Council in this year's local elections.

Common among the party's target seats is a high proportion of home ownership, leaving voters in these areas exposed to the impact of recent interest rate rises.

Recent polling conducted on the party's behalf suggested a majority of Conservative voters blamed the government for rising mortgages, compounding the Lib Dems' message that the blue wall is being "hit hardest" by the knock-on effects of an increase in interest rates.

In the aftermath of the tax-cutting mini-budget delivered by Kwasi Kwarteng in September, a poll found two thirds (68%) of people who had voted Conservatives in 2019 said the government would be to blame if mortgage bills subsequently increased.

That poll of 2,240 adults aged 18+ was conducted by Savanta ComRes between 30 September and 2 October.

Sir Ed Davey is expected to make a call for homeowners struggling to pay their mortgage to be better protected in a speech to party activists in London on Sunday.

Lib Dems hope the move will influence the political debate around an issue facing millions of voters in a similar way to the party's calls for a windfall tax on oil and gas companies and an energy price freeze this winter.

Similarly, the party hopes to capitalise on a sense of frustration among voters that key public services are "broken", as one senior party figure put it, with their call for guaranteed GP appointments within a week in England.


Weak points?


Eye-catching policies may gain the Lib Dems some attention and allow them to punch above their political weight, but their prospects at the next election may have as much if not more to do with the fortunes of their opponents as it does their own offering.

Senior Lib Dems considered the Conservatives to be vulnerable on the economy while Boris Johnson was prime minister and sought to "hammer home" the impact of the rising cost of living.

The turmoil that marked Liz Truss's time in No 10 may have fuelled their attacks on government incompetence, but will the same tactics work against the new man in charge?

The Lib Dems claim not to be fazed by Rishi Sunak as prime minister, citing what they see as his slowness to act as chancellor on the cost of living crisis and controversy around Suella Braverman's re-appointment as home secretary as potential weak points.

Labour's lead in opinion polls has widened as popularity plummeted for the Conservatives, but the Lib Dems' standing has remained largely stagnant.

Some in the party argue that anti-Conservative sentiment can only be a good thing for the Lib Dems and increase the party's chances of unseating Tory MPs at the next election.

Furthermore, insiders claim Labour's apparent popularity among voters helps the party too, removing the 2019 "fear factor" of a Jeremy Corbyn government which may have prevented some Conservative voters switching to the Lib Dems in blue wall seats.

Jo Swinson was the last Liberal Democrat leader to fight a general election


Sir John Curtice, president of the British Polling Council, said the Liberal Democrats would "probably pick up Labour voters in places where they're second".

But he added that the economy was "never ever their strong point" and voters may struggle to identify the party's position on major issues.

"I'm just not sure enough people know what the hell they stand for," Sir John said.

That may not worry the Lib Dems as much as it might.

At the 2019 general election the then party leader Jo Swinson touted herself as the UK's next prime minister and talked of winning "hundreds of seats".

Her successor is unlikely to make a similar pitch, instead seeking to make the most of hostility towards the Conservatives and argue that electing Liberal Democrat MPs in seats where Labour is unlikely to win is the only way to remove them from government.


Sir Ed Davey celebrates his party's win in the Chesham and Amersham while breaking down a model blue wall


Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
High Court Rules in Favor of Comprehensive Transparency Review Regarding Government Artificial Intelligence Procurement Contracts
Home Office Expands Digital Border Security and Electronic Travel Authorization Systems Across International Arrivals
Scottish Government Confirms Accelerated Investment in Offshore Renewable Energy Infrastructure Across North Sea Corridors
Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs Implements Stricter Water Company Oversight and Environmental Penalties
National Health Service England Unveils Emergency Winter Resilience Package to Tackle Acute Accident and Emergency Backlogs
Office for National Statistics Reports Gross Domestic Product Growth Stagnated at Zero Point One Percent in Third Quarter
Chancellor of the Exchequer Outlines Comprehensive Fiscal Strategy to Stabilize National Borrowing and Public Spending
Bank of England Maintains Base Interest Rate at Five Percent Amid Persistent Service Sector Inflation Pressures
Office for National Statistics Reports Stable Consumer Confidence and Modest Retail Growth Heading into Winter
Welsh Government Launches Strategic Regional Transport Initiative to Modernize Rail Links Across South Wales
Home Office Expands Digital Border Security Controls and Electronic Travel Authorisations for Inbound Visitors
Scottish Government Announces Emergency Housing Investment Package to Tackle Urban Homelessness Crises
Northern Ireland Executive Reaches Bipartisan Consensus on Public Sector Pay Reform and Budget Allocations
Automotive Manufacturing Sector in the West Midlands Welcomes New Electric Vehicle Supply Chain Investments
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero Approves Offshore Wind Expansion in the North Sea
HM Treasury Finalizes Regulatory Framework for Stablecoins and Digital Asset Markets in London
National Health Service Unveils Comprehensive Digital Integration Strategy to Slash Hospital Waiting Lists
Bank of England Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged Amid Persistent Wage Growth and Inflationary Pressures
United Kingdom and Caribbean Nations Agree to Establish Formal Diplomatic Dialogue Following Reparations Discussions
Cambridge University Appoints Senior Barrister to Lead Independent Review into Death of Academic Jason Arday
Historic Hastings Castle and Kent Dickens Chalet Added to National Heritage at Risk Register Amid Deterioration Concerns
Incoming British Ambassador to Japan Calls for Deepened Bilateral Cooperation on Artificial Intelligence and Semiconductors
Milburn Review Urges Employment Revolution to Unlock Workforce Opportunities for Young Disabled Britons
British Healthcare Worker Evacuated from Democratic Republic of Congo to United Kingdom Following Ebola Exposure
United Nations Refugee Agency Criticises Government Proposal for Thirty-Year Earned Settlement Pathways for Asylum Seekers
Parliamentary Inquiry Warns United Kingdom Remains Exposed to Chinese Critical Mineral Dependencies
Bank of England Prepares Interest Rate Decision as Inflation Pressures Prompt Expectation of Four Percent Benchmark
Department for Business and Trade Overhauls Protection Standards for Digital Animation and Moving Image Files
Intellectual Property Office Introduces Thirty-Month Grace Period for International Product Launches
Intellectual Property Office Targets Anti-Competitive Filings With New Powers to Verify Novelty Before Registration
Creative Industries Minister Ian Murray Praises Regulatory Reforms to Safeguard Small Businesses and Micro-Enterprises
Government Unveils Major Design Framework Overhaul to Protect British Creators and Boost Economy
Global Asset Management Reports Surge in British Dividend Payouts Driven by Strong Financial and Mining Sectors
HM Treasury Confirms Strongest Group of Seven Growth Figures as Fiscal Consolidation Plans Progress
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero Approves Construction of New North Sea Offshore Wind Hub
Northern Ireland Executive Finalizes Public Sector Pay Agreements Following Months of Inter-Agency Negotiations
Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan Secures Cross-Party Support for Regional Clean Energy Infrastructure Bill
Competition and Markets Authority Launches Formal Investigation Into Dominant Artificial Intelligence Cloud Partnerships
United Kingdom Foreign Secretary David Lammy Concludes High-Level Diplomatic Mission to Washington and Ottawa
Scottish Government Announces Emergency Housing Investment Package to Address Escalating Urban Homelessness
Chancellor Rachel Reeves Finalizes Corporate Tax Adjustments Ahead of Upcoming Business Investment Summit
National Health Service England Unveils Emergency Winter Resilience Plan to Combat Projected A&E Overcrowding
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Votes to Hold Base Interest Rate Steady at Four Point Seven5 Per Cent
UK Gross Domestic Product Expands by Zero Point Four Per Cent in Third Quarter Driven by Resilient Services Growth
Northern Ireland Executive Agrees on Multi-Year Public Sector Pay Restructuring Framework at Stormont
Department for Transport Confirms Acceleration of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Rollout Along Strategic Motorways
Welsh Government Announces Emergency Funding Package to Support Agricultural Sector Facing Severe Weather Impacts
High Court Rules in Favor of Environmental Coalition Over Government Carbon Reduction Plan Deficiencies
Office for National Statistics Reports Stable Retail Sales Growth Supported by Strong Digital Commerce Volumes
Scottish First Minister John Swinney Secures Cross-Party Support for Renewable Energy Export Expansion
×