London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Nov 15, 2025

Liberal Democrats eye blue wall seats in wake of Tory turmoil

Liberal Democrats eye blue wall seats in wake of Tory turmoil

It can be hard for the Liberal Democrats to make themselves heard at the best of times, but recently the party has been particularly unlucky.

For two years running the Lib Dems have been unable to gather in person for their annual conference, while other parties' events went ahead - robbing them of a guaranteed moment in the media spotlight.

The aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2021 and the death of the Queen this year left them with little choice but to cancel the biggest event in their calendar.

This weekend, party leader Sir Ed Davey is touring Lib Dem target seats and will make a speech in London in an attempt to renew his offer to voters.

But languishing a distant third in opinion polls and with only 14 MPs, where does the party sit after months of political turmoil at Westminster?


Beyond the blue wall?


Party insiders point to a run of by-election wins and bold policy pitches as proof the Lib Dems are able to punch above their political weight.

A surprise victory in the Conservative seat of Chesham and Amersham in June 2021 was followed by wins in other Tory strongholds - North Shropshire later that year and Tiverton and Honiton in June.

The Liberal Democrats hope to replicate this across the so-called 'blue wall' of Conservative-held seats with more affluent and higher educated populations that voted largely to remain in the EU.

Top of the list is Wimbledon, where the party lost by just 628 votes in 2019. The Lib Dems report plenty of anti-Conservative sentiment on the doorstep in the leafy south London enclave which returned a Labour MP in 1997 but has been held by the Tories since 2005.

One campaigner was told by a life-long Conservative voter they regretted supporting the party in 2019 and were "ready for change", summing up similar sentiment from others.

But conscious of becoming pigeon-holed as a political refuge for liberal Conservative voters fed up with the direction under Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and now Rishi Sunak, the Lib Dems are keen to stress their electoral ambitions extend beyond the south of England.

In Greater Manchester, for example, the party is looking to build on second place finishes in 2019 in Cheadle and Hazel Grove, where it recently took control of Stockport Borough Council in this year's local elections.

Common among the party's target seats is a high proportion of home ownership, leaving voters in these areas exposed to the impact of recent interest rate rises.

Recent polling conducted on the party's behalf suggested a majority of Conservative voters blamed the government for rising mortgages, compounding the Lib Dems' message that the blue wall is being "hit hardest" by the knock-on effects of an increase in interest rates.

In the aftermath of the tax-cutting mini-budget delivered by Kwasi Kwarteng in September, a poll found two thirds (68%) of people who had voted Conservatives in 2019 said the government would be to blame if mortgage bills subsequently increased.

That poll of 2,240 adults aged 18+ was conducted by Savanta ComRes between 30 September and 2 October.

Sir Ed Davey is expected to make a call for homeowners struggling to pay their mortgage to be better protected in a speech to party activists in London on Sunday.

Lib Dems hope the move will influence the political debate around an issue facing millions of voters in a similar way to the party's calls for a windfall tax on oil and gas companies and an energy price freeze this winter.

Similarly, the party hopes to capitalise on a sense of frustration among voters that key public services are "broken", as one senior party figure put it, with their call for guaranteed GP appointments within a week in England.


Weak points?


Eye-catching policies may gain the Lib Dems some attention and allow them to punch above their political weight, but their prospects at the next election may have as much if not more to do with the fortunes of their opponents as it does their own offering.

Senior Lib Dems considered the Conservatives to be vulnerable on the economy while Boris Johnson was prime minister and sought to "hammer home" the impact of the rising cost of living.

The turmoil that marked Liz Truss's time in No 10 may have fuelled their attacks on government incompetence, but will the same tactics work against the new man in charge?

The Lib Dems claim not to be fazed by Rishi Sunak as prime minister, citing what they see as his slowness to act as chancellor on the cost of living crisis and controversy around Suella Braverman's re-appointment as home secretary as potential weak points.

Labour's lead in opinion polls has widened as popularity plummeted for the Conservatives, but the Lib Dems' standing has remained largely stagnant.

Some in the party argue that anti-Conservative sentiment can only be a good thing for the Lib Dems and increase the party's chances of unseating Tory MPs at the next election.

Furthermore, insiders claim Labour's apparent popularity among voters helps the party too, removing the 2019 "fear factor" of a Jeremy Corbyn government which may have prevented some Conservative voters switching to the Lib Dems in blue wall seats.

Jo Swinson was the last Liberal Democrat leader to fight a general election


Sir John Curtice, president of the British Polling Council, said the Liberal Democrats would "probably pick up Labour voters in places where they're second".

But he added that the economy was "never ever their strong point" and voters may struggle to identify the party's position on major issues.

"I'm just not sure enough people know what the hell they stand for," Sir John said.

That may not worry the Lib Dems as much as it might.

At the 2019 general election the then party leader Jo Swinson touted herself as the UK's next prime minister and talked of winning "hundreds of seats".

Her successor is unlikely to make a similar pitch, instead seeking to make the most of hostility towards the Conservatives and argue that electing Liberal Democrat MPs in seats where Labour is unlikely to win is the only way to remove them from government.


Sir Ed Davey celebrates his party's win in the Chesham and Amersham while breaking down a model blue wall


Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Upholds Firm Rules on Stablecoins to Shield Financial System
Brussels Divided as UK-EU Reset Stalls Over Budget Access
Prince Harry’s Remembrance Day Essay Expresses Strong Regret at Leaving Britain
UK Unemployment Hits 5% as Wage Growth Slows, Paving Way for Bank of England Rate Cut
Starmer Warns of Resurgent Racism in UK Politics as He Vows Child-Poverty Reforms
UK Grocery Inflation Slows to 4.7% as Supermarkets Launch Pre-Christmas Promotions
UK Government Backs the BBC amid Editing Scandal and Trump Threat of Legal Action
UK Assessment Mis-Estimated Fallout From Palestine Action Ban, Records Reveal
UK Halts Intelligence Sharing with US Amid Lethal Boat-Strike Concerns
King Charles III Leads Britain in Remembrance Sunday Tribute to War Dead
UK Retail Sales Growth Slows as Households Hold Back Ahead of Black Friday and Budget
Shell Pulls Out of Two UK Floating Wind Projects Amid Renewables Retreat
Viagogo Hit With £15 Million Tax Bill After HMRC Transfer-Pricing Inquiry
Jaguar Land Rover Cyberattack Pinches UK GDP, Bank of England Says
UK and Germany Sound Alarm on Russian-Satellite Threat to Critical Infrastructure
Former Prince Andrew Faces U.S. Congressional Request for Testimony Amid Brexit of Royal Title
BBC Director-General Tim Davie and News CEO Deborah Turness Resign Amid Editing Controversy
Tom Cruise Arrives by Helicopter at UK Scientology Fundraiser Amid Local Protests
Prince Andrew and Sarah Ferguson Face Fresh UK Probes Amid Royal Fallout
Mothers Link Teen Suicides to AI Chatbots in Growing Legal Battle
UK Government to Mirror Denmark’s Tough Immigration Framework in Major Policy Shift
UK Government Turns to Denmark-Style Immigration Reforms to Overhaul Border Rules
UK Chancellor Warned Against Cutting Insulation Funding as Budget Looms
UK Tenant Complaints Hit Record Levels as Rental Sector Faces Mounting Pressure
Apple to Pay Google About One Billion Dollars Annually for Gemini AI to Power Next-Generation Siri
UK Signals Major Shift as Nuclear Arms Race Looms
BBC’s « Celebrity Traitors UK » Finale Breaks Records with 11.1 Million Viewers
UK Spy Case Collapse Highlights Implications for UK-Taiwan Strategic Alignment
On the Road to the Oscars? Meghan Markle to Star in a New Film
A Vote Worth a Trillion Dollars: Elon Musk’s Defining Day
AI Researchers Claim Human-Level General Intelligence Is Already Here
President Donald Trump Challenges Nigeria with Military Options Over Alleged Christian Killings
Nancy Pelosi Finally Announces She Will Not Seek Re-Election, Signalling End of Long Congressional Career
UK Pre-Budget Blues and Rate-Cut Concerns Pile Pressure on Pound
ITV Warns of Nine-Per-Cent Drop in Q4 Advertising Revenue Amid Budget Uncertainty
National Grid Posts Slightly Stronger-Than-Expected Half-Year Profit as Regulatory Investments Drive Growth
UK Business Lobby Urges Reeves to Break Tax Pledges and Build Fiscal Headroom
UK to Launch Consultation on Stablecoin Regulation on November 10
UK Savers Rush to Withdraw Pension Cash Ahead of Budget Amid Tax-Change Fears
Massive Spoilers Emerge from MAFS UK 2025: Couple Swaps, Dating App Leaks and Reunion Bombshells
Kurdish-led Crime Network Operates UK Mini-Marts to Exploit Migrants and Sell Illicit Goods
UK Income Tax Hike Could Trigger £1 Billion Cut to Scotland’s Budget, Warns Finance Secretary
Tommy Robinson Acquitted of Terror-related Charge After Phone PIN Dispute
Boris Johnson Condemns Western Support for Hamas at Jewish Community Conference
HII Welcomes UK’s Westley Group to Strengthen AUKUS Submarine Supply Chain
Tragedy in Serbia: Coach Mladen Žižović Collapses During Match and Dies at 44
Diplo Says He Dated Katy Perry — and Justin Trudeau
Dick Cheney, Former U.S. Vice President, Dies at 84
Trump Calls Title Removal of Andrew ‘Tragic Situation’ Amid Royal Fallout
UK Bonds Rally as Chancellor Reeves Briefs Markets Ahead of November Budget
×