London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Jul 24, 2026

Impact of Brexit on economy 'worse than Covid'

Impact of Brexit on economy 'worse than Covid'

The impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be worse in the long run compared to the coronavirus pandemic, the chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility has said.

Richard Hughes said leaving the EU will reduce the UK's potential GDP by about 4% in the long term.

He said forecasts showed the pandemic would reduce GDP "by a further 2%".

"In the long term it is the case that Brexit has a bigger impact than the pandemic", he told the BBC.

His comments come after the OBR said the cost of living could rise at its fastest rate for 30 years, with suggestions inflation could hit almost 5%.

Speaking after Wednesday's Budget, Mr Hughes said recent data showed the impact of Brexit was "broadly consistent" with the OBR's assumption that the leaving the EU would "reduce our long run GDP by around 4%".

"We think that the effect of the pandemic will reduce that (GDP) output by a further 2%," he added.

The Treasury has been contacted for comment.
GDP or Gross Domestic Product is one of the most important ways of showing how well, or badly, an economy is doing. It is a measure - or an attempt to measure - all the activity of companies, governments and individuals in an economy.

In a growing economy, quarterly GDP will be slightly higher than the quarter before, a sign that people are doing more work and getting (on average) a little bit richer. If GDP is falling, then the economy is shrinking.

The UK voted to leave the EU in 2016 and officially left the trading bloc on 31 January 2020, however, both sides agreed to keep many things the same until 31 December 2020, before a new trade deal was announced and implemented on 1 January this year.

Supply chain problems


Both the pandemic and Brexit have played a part in current supply chain issues across the UK, and have further exposed the scarcity of lorry drivers, which has resulted in recent shortages of products for businesses and some empty shelves for customers.

However, in the OBR's latest report, the independent body said "supply bottlenecks had been exacerbated by changes in the migration and trading regimes following Brexit".

Supply chain issues has led to the government granting short-term visas to EU workers across certain sectors, including the haulage industry.

The British Poultry Council has said turkey farmers will do their best to ensure Christmas "is as normal as it can be", but warned shortages are likely, due to a shortage of seasonal overseas workers.

The government has assured consumers that turkeys will be available for the festive season and has also deployed temporary visas in a bid to bolster worker numbers.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Badenoch Rejects Grant Shapps' Bid to Return as Conservative Candidate
BAE Chief Warns Britain Has Underestimated the Risk of War
Burnham Rules Out New Scottish Independence Referendum in First Talks With Swinney
OpenAI Sued After ChatGPT Allegedly Discouraged Emergency Care Before Near-Fatal Embolism
Viral Video Raises Questions Over Twelve-Dollar Croissants at Manhattan Bakery
UK Balances Security Commitments With Economic Growth Priorities
Retail and Hospitality Sectors Navigate Consumer Caution and Tax Changes
Key Trends to Watch
British Land Appoints Joanne McNamara as New Chief Executive Officer
UK Government Names New Life Peers Including Former Military and Civil Service Leaders
Institute of Directors Urges Government Action on Employment Costs and Skills Shortages
IMF Raises UK 2026 Growth Forecast to One Percent
UK Retail Sales Growth Slows Sharply as Households Cut Discretionary Spending
UK Ten-Year Bond Yields Remain Above Five Percent as Government Faces Higher Debt Costs
UK Government Plans Earlier End to Low-Value Import Duty Exemption for Online Retail Parcels
Reform UK Leads Tight Westminster Voting Poll as Conservatives and Labour Remain Close
Royal Navy Carrier Strike Group Completes First Arctic and North Atlantic Mission Phase
Andy Burnham Government Cuts Business Rates for Pubs and Music Venues by Twenty Percent
UK Inflation Falls to Two Point Six Percent in June as Food and Fuel Prices Ease
Andy Burnham Becomes UK Prime Minister Facing Growth Challenges and Fiscal Pressure
UK Government Reviews Long-Term Balance Between Cost Relief, Industry Support, and Public Investment Priorities
BBC Could Receive Permanent Royal Charter Under Government Proposal
Northern Ireland Proposes End to Severe Weather Exemptions for Electricity Compensation Rules
Andy Burnham Holds Talks With UK Devolved Leaders on Regional Cooperation and Devolution
House of Lords Launches Inquiry Into Risks Facing UK Democratic Institutions
ScottishPower Renewables Plans Major Rebuild of Whitelee Wind Farm With Fewer Larger Turbines
UK and Italy Leaders Discuss Global Combat Air Programme and Future European Cooperation
UK Government Announces Six Hundred Million Pound Aerospace Investment Package at Farnborough Airshow
European Union Approves UK Participation in Ninety Billion Euro Ukraine Support Loan Framework
Rolls-Royce Warns UK Government Over Jet Engine Funding Decision and Future Manufacturing Plans
UK Inflation Falls to Two Point Six Percent in June as Fuel and Food Prices Ease
Andy Burnham Begins Premiership With Two Pound England Bus Fare Cap and Electricity Tax Cut Plan
YouGov Poll Shows Tight Competition Among UK Political Parties
Space Technology Investment Expands Through UK-US Cooperation at Farnborough Airshow
UK Opens Final India Young Professionals Scheme Ballot for Three Thousand Applicants
United Kingdom Approved for Ukraine Financial Support Initiative With EU Partners
UK and Ireland Leaders Discuss Security, Energy and Regional Cooperation
British Heart Foundation Identifies Ten UK Areas With Severe Shortages of Defibrillators
Former Southern Water Executives Charged Over Alleged Water Test Manipulation Scheme
IMF Warns UK Economic Growth Will Slow to One Percent in 2026
UK Inflation Falls to Two Point Six Percent in June as Food and Energy Costs Ease
United Kingdom Joins European Union Loan Mechanism to Support Ukraine’s Defense Needs
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Introduces Two-Pound Bus Fare Cap and Energy Tax Relief Measures Across England
Northern Ireland Secures Additional Infrastructure Funding From UK Treasury
Wales Approves Port Investment Plans to Support Green Energy Supply Chains
UK Financial Regulator Simplifies Stock Market Rules to Attract More Listings
UK Reports Decline in Small Boat Crossings Across the English Channel
UK Government Creates Emergency Support Fund for Financially Pressured Universities
Scottish Government Launches Economic Strategy Focused on Innovation and Renewable Industries
UK Expands Sustainable Farming Incentives to Support Environmental Measures
×