London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Jul 03, 2026

Impact of Brexit on economy 'worse than Covid'

Impact of Brexit on economy 'worse than Covid'

The impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be worse in the long run compared to the coronavirus pandemic, the chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility has said.

Richard Hughes said leaving the EU will reduce the UK's potential GDP by about 4% in the long term.

He said forecasts showed the pandemic would reduce GDP "by a further 2%".

"In the long term it is the case that Brexit has a bigger impact than the pandemic", he told the BBC.

His comments come after the OBR said the cost of living could rise at its fastest rate for 30 years, with suggestions inflation could hit almost 5%.

Speaking after Wednesday's Budget, Mr Hughes said recent data showed the impact of Brexit was "broadly consistent" with the OBR's assumption that the leaving the EU would "reduce our long run GDP by around 4%".

"We think that the effect of the pandemic will reduce that (GDP) output by a further 2%," he added.

The Treasury has been contacted for comment.
GDP or Gross Domestic Product is one of the most important ways of showing how well, or badly, an economy is doing. It is a measure - or an attempt to measure - all the activity of companies, governments and individuals in an economy.

In a growing economy, quarterly GDP will be slightly higher than the quarter before, a sign that people are doing more work and getting (on average) a little bit richer. If GDP is falling, then the economy is shrinking.

The UK voted to leave the EU in 2016 and officially left the trading bloc on 31 January 2020, however, both sides agreed to keep many things the same until 31 December 2020, before a new trade deal was announced and implemented on 1 January this year.

Supply chain problems


Both the pandemic and Brexit have played a part in current supply chain issues across the UK, and have further exposed the scarcity of lorry drivers, which has resulted in recent shortages of products for businesses and some empty shelves for customers.

However, in the OBR's latest report, the independent body said "supply bottlenecks had been exacerbated by changes in the migration and trading regimes following Brexit".

Supply chain issues has led to the government granting short-term visas to EU workers across certain sectors, including the haulage industry.

The British Poultry Council has said turkey farmers will do their best to ensure Christmas "is as normal as it can be", but warned shortages are likely, due to a shortage of seasonal overseas workers.

The government has assured consumers that turkeys will be available for the festive season and has also deployed temporary visas in a bid to bolster worker numbers.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Luxury bags take over the World Cup: style, status symbol, or just showing off?
UK Parliamentary Committee Launches Inquiry Into Falling Primary School Rolls and Public Service Impact
UK House of Lords Debates Electoral Commission Powers and Political Finance Reform
UK Parliament Considers Expanding Carbon Rules to International Aviation and Shipping Emissions
UK Traffic Commissioner Revokes Hampshire Haulage Operator Licence Over Regulatory Failures
UK Parliament Examines Risks in Public Contracts Awarded to Technology Firm Palantir
UK Competition Watchdog Moves Toward More Flexible Merger Rules to Support Efficiency and Growth
UK Government Seeks Approval for £1.15 Trillion Public Spending Plan Amid Scrutiny Over Department Budgets
UK Parliament Debates Sweeping National Security and Steel Industry Nationalisation Bills
UK Government Issues Formal Apology for Historic Forced Adoption Practices and Announces £4 Million Support Scheme
UK DEFENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY TILTS TOWARD SOVEREIGN CAPABILITY AND INDUSTRIAL INVESTMENT
UK ECONOMIC POLICY OUTLOOK SHAPED BY LEADERSHIP TRANSITION AND FISCAL SIGNALS
STERLING STRENGTHENS AMID SHIFTING MONETARY OUTLOOK AND GLOBAL LABOUR MARKET SIGNALS
UK HPV VACCINATION PROGRAM NEARLY ELIMINATES CERVICAL CANCER DEATH RISK IN YOUNG WOMEN
UK EXPANDS PRISON SAFETY REVIEW AS GOVERNMENT SEEKS WIDER SYSTEM REFORM
UK DRIVES DIGITAL ASSETS STRATEGY WITH NEW STABLECOIN REGULATORY MODEL
UK TO EXPAND AI INFRASTRUCTURE THROUGH NEW EUROPEAN TECHNOLOGY PARTNERSHIP
UK LAUNCHES £15 BILLION DEFENCE TECH SHIFT TOWARD ADVANCED MILITARY SYSTEMS
CIVIL SERVICE FACES SHIFT IN POWER STRUCTURE AS REGIONAL GOVERNANCE PLANS EXPAND
WHITEHALL CONSIDERS MAJOR DECENTRALISATION PLAN WITH SECOND GOVERNMENT HUB IN MANCHESTER
UK TARGETS SERVICES EXPORT GROWTH IN TRADE TALKS WITH CHINA AMID GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS
POLICE WATCHDOG PROBES OFFICERS OVER HANDCUFFING OF DYING TEENAGER IN HAMPSHIRE CASE
UK REGULATORS UNVEIL DUAL OVERSIGHT FRAMEWORK FOR STABLECOINS AND DIGITAL ASSETS
KEIR STARMER ANNOUNCES £15 BILLION DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY BOOST IN FINAL MAJOR POLICY MOVE
ANDY BURNHAM SIGNALS STRICT FISCAL RULES AS LABOUR LEADERSHIP RACE SHAPES MARKET OUTLOOK
POUND STERLING HITS ONE-YEAR HIGH AS BANK OF ENGLAND SIGNALS NO IMMINENT RATE CUTS
UK Government Confirms Rejected Asylum Seekers to Remain Amid Enforcement Challenges
UK-China Economic Talks Focus on Services Trade and High-Value Sectors
Buckingham Palace Revamp Plans Unveiled to Modernise Royal and Public Facilities
Two Dead After Light Aircraft Crash in Essex Field, Investigation Underway
Princess Diana Marked at 65 With UK Tributes Reflecting on Her Public Legacy
England Teachers Face New Pay Cap Rules for Academy School Leaders Under Education Reform
Dublin Security Alert Escalates After Stabbing and Reports of Transport Disruption
UK Government Faces Scrutiny Over £10,000 Asylum Living Cost Contribution Requirement
England Prepares World Cup Knockout Match Against Democratic Republic of Congo
Northern Rail Project Warned of HS2-Style Cost Risks by UK Parliamentary Committee
UK Tightens Asylum Rules as Most Rejected Applicants Expected to Remain in Country
UK Heat Health Alert Issued as Temperatures Expected to Exceed 30°C Across England
Halifax Brand to Disappear From UK High Streets in Lloyds Banking Group Restructuring
England Teachers Receive 6.6 Percent Pay Rise Over Two Years as Schools Warn of Budget Strain
UK Defence Spending Plan Sparks Budget Clash as Regional Infrastructure Projects Face Pressure
Inquest Continues in Northern Ireland into Death of Noah Donohoe in Belfast
UK Travel Industry Calls for Suspension of New EU Border System During Peak Holiday Season
Telegraph Media Group Acquired by German Media Firm in £575 Million Deal Completion
House of Commons Warns Northern Rail Upgrade Risks Repeating High-Speed 2 Cost Overruns
UK Transport Unions Warn of Summer Strike Action Over Pay Disputes
UK Health Secretary Calls Maternity Care Review a “Watershed Moment” for NHS Reform
Nigel Farage Faces Questions Over £270,000 Payment Linked to Gold Marketing Firm
Labour Government Faces Internal Division Over North Sea Oil and Gas Policy Direction
National Screening Committee Invites New Proposals for UK Health Screening Programmes
×