London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Oct 13, 2026

IMF dramatically upgrades outlook for UK economy - but says more cost of living pain to come

IMF dramatically upgrades outlook for UK economy - but says more cost of living pain to come

Germany's "near zero" growth rate forecast means Britain is no longer the laggard of the group but sounded a note of caution over the future impact of increased interest rates.
Britain is no longer expected to suffer a recession this year, nor will it have the weakest economic growth in the group of seven leading industrialised economies, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said today.

Unveiling a dramatic upgrade to its outlook for Britain, the Fund, which previously predicted Britain would face the worst 2023 of any G7 nation, said that in fact the UK would grow by 0.4% this year.

While this remains weak, it is nonetheless stronger than the 0.7% contraction previously forecast and stronger than the "near zero" growth rate the IMF has pencilled in for Germany.

The news, contained in the IMF's latest individual assessment of the UK economy, its so-called Article IV report, will likely be welcomed by the chancellor, following a stream of negative forecasts from major institutions.

However, the Fund said that the impact of the cost of living crisis will continue to cause pain across the economy.

"Given transmission lags," it said, "sizeable rate [interest rate] hikes implemented since August are expected to have their peak impact on demand and inflation from the second half of 2023."

It added that interest rates - already at 4.5% having risen twelve successive times since late 2021 - would have to rise even further.

"Inflation is projected to return to the 2% target only by mid-2025, six-months later than in staff's April forecast, and risks to this trajectory are tilted to the upside.

"Accordingly, some further monetary tightening will likely be needed, and rates may have to remain high for longer to bring down inflation more assuredly."

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said: "Today's IMF report shows a big upgrade to the UK's growth forecast and credits our action to restore stability and tame inflation.

"It praises our childcare reforms, the Windsor Framework and business investment incentives.

"If we stick to the plan, the IMF confirm our long-term growth prospects are stronger than in Germany, France and Italy... but the job is not done yet."

Despite volatile times for the global economy, the latest assessment casts further doubt on the fund's forecasting record.

At a news conference to explain its findings, IMF Kristalina Georgieva said: "When you take a good look at the projections done by the Bank of England, consensus projections and the IMF, we're actually slightly less pessimistic than the others have been.

We have gone through a very turbulent time over the last years. We have experienced shock upon shock upon shock and that has created exceptional uncertainty. I actually think our staff , my colleagues, deserve credit for being agile in how we look at changing conditions and being fast to adjust projections so we can give as clearer picture as we can at the time, that you would agree is the foggiest we have seen in many decades."
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Orders Security Review Following Reported Killing of Former Politician Ann Widdecombe
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham Meets German Chancellor Merz to Strengthen European Security Ties
Nearly 100,000 NHS Patients Treated in Hospital Corridors as England Braces for Winter Pressures
UK Government Rejects US-Russia Diesel Agreement and Reaffirms Sanctions Against Moscow
UK and Germany Agree to Deepen Security and Economic Cooperation Following Berlin Talks
British Prime Minister Burnham Pledges Closer EU Ties During Visit to Germany
UK Announces New Sanctions on 17 Russia-Linked Entities During Foreign Secretary's Ukraine Visit
UK and Germany Finalize Kensington Treaty to Strengthen Defense and Technology Cooperation
Britain Maintains Diplomatic Mission in East Jerusalem Despite Israeli Closure Deadline
English Councils Push Government to Rethink Proposed Funding Cuts
Scottish Homebuilding Falls to Lowest Level in 11 Years
BBC Chief Matt Brittin Defends Restructuring as Staff Challenge Job Cuts
UK Finance Warns High Energy Costs and Bond Yields Are Complicating Fiscal Outlook
UK Adopts All 44 Recommendations on Regulating AI in Healthcare
Chancellor John Healey Prepares Autumn Budget as Borrowing Costs Strain Public Finances
UK Investigators See Strong Indications of Iranian Link After RAF Fairford Security Operation
Laura Trott Pledges Tighter Controls on Political Activism in UK Classrooms
Welsh Ministers Launch Long-Term Review of North Wales and Anglesey Crossings
Welsh Government Orders 18-Month Study of Road Solutions Around Newport
Reform UK MP Sarah Pochin Faces Scrutiny Over £800,000 Second Home Purchase
British Households Grow More Concerned About Fuel and Energy Prices
NHS Leaders Warn of Rising Winter Pressure on Emergency Departments
Kemi Badenoch Proposes £2.3 Billion Employer National Insurance Cut for Young Workers
Middle East Conflict Could Erase UK Fiscal Headroom, Economists Warn
Manchester City Found Guilty of Multiple Premier League Financial Rule Breaches
UK Security Services Find Strong Indications of Iranian Role in RAF Fairford Incident
Costa Coffee Returns to Operating Profit on Iced Drinks and Menu Changes
Asos Warns Customers After Unauthorized Access to Retail App and Data
Kemi Badenoch Puts Growth and Deregulation at Center of Conservative Conference
Campaigners Warn of Deepening Social Care Crisis for Disabled Adults
Study Finds Rising Early-Onset Cancer Rates Among Adults Under 50 in Britain
UK Coach Operators Warn High Diesel Prices Could Force Route Cuts
FCA Opens Independent Review Into Handling of Epstein-Linked Whistleblower Case
Argentina Vows to Block Falkland Islands Offshore Oil Development
UK Chancellor Prepares Fiscal Measures and Welfare Reforms Ahead of Autumn Budget
Sainsbury’s and Morrisons Explore Potential Multi-Billion-Pound Merger
UK Weighs Tariffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles to Align With European Union
UK Threatens Diplomatic Expulsions Over Planned Closure of East Jerusalem Consulate
UK Energy Price Cap Hits Three-Year High as Middle East Conflict Raises Costs
Seventh Arrest Made in Suspected Terror Plot at RAF Fairford
Systemic Education Collapse Sparks Mass Student Uprisings in France
Green Party Faces Backlash Over Resolution Equating Zionism With Racism
Conservatives Debate Scrapping Environmental Rules for New Homes
Cornwall Insight Warns UK Energy Bills Could Approach £2,000 This Winter
UK Coach Operators Warn of Service Cuts as Diesel Prices Exceed £2
Scottish Parliament Approves £68 Billion Budget With New Tax and Property Measures
FCA Opens Independent Review Into Handling of Epstein Whistleblower
UK Government Drops Plan to Suspend Jury Trials in England and Wales
Bank of England Holds Interest Rate at 3.75% as Markets Watch November
Two Iranian Nationals Charged Over Alleged Plot Targeting Manchester Jewish Community
×