London Daily

Focus on the big picture.

How US Debt Default Would Affect Global Economy, Financial Markets

How US Debt Default Would Affect Global Economy, Financial Markets

Biden has maintained that default would have "catastrophic" consequences, and is urging Republicans to agree to a "clean" increase to US borrowing limits -- known as the debt ceiling -- before the deadline is reached.
President Joe Biden and Republicans in Congress have resumed crunch talks aimed at averting a damaging US debt default, which Treasury officials recently warned could come as early as June 1.

Biden has maintained that default would have "catastrophic" consequences, and is urging Republicans to agree to a "clean" increase to US borrowing limits -- known as the debt ceiling -- before the deadline is reached.

Republicans have pushed back, insisting they want an agreement from Democrats to commit to less spending in future in order for their support to extend the nation's borrowing authority.

Here is what could happen in the United States, and around the world, if the US fails to raise the debt ceiling:

What would it mean for financial markets?

If the Treasury is unable to meet all of its financial obligations, analysts forecast that US stock markets would likely suffer a sharp, temporary shock.

Along with a decline in US stocks, interest rates would spike, especially Treasury yields and mortgage rates, Moody's Analytics economist Bernard Yaros told AFP.

"That would lead to higher borrowing costs for consumers, for corporations," he said.

Households or businesses who fail to receive federal payments owed would likely pull back on near-term spending due to their loss of income, while consumer confidence may worsen, hurting the economy, Yaros said.

But any shocks are expected to be short-lived, with politicians likely to respond forcefully to any meaningful market reaction.

"I also would expect that once the deal's done the markets bounce back," Citigroup Global Chief Economist Nathan Sheets told AFP.

"I don't think that this episode is likely to be sufficiently long-lived that we should be calculating lower GDP forecasts," he said.

What would it mean for government?

Even if the United States misses the so-called X-date -- when the government runs out of money to meet all its financial obligations -- it will still have options.

It could, for instance, choose to prioritize debt repayment and delay other payments -- such as to federal agencies, Social Security beneficiaries, or Medicare providers.

This is the most likely scenario, according to Wendy Edelberg, senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution.

During a similar debt ceiling stand-off in 2011, Treasury officials drew up contingency plans to prevent a default on Treasury securities, and to ensure the Treasury would continue to pay interest on those securities as they come due.

A government shutdown would be unlikely, although federal workers' paychecks could be delayed, Edelberg said.

What would it mean for global economy?

Even if the US misses the X-date but continues repaying investors, the consequences of the political failure to reach agreement would likely ripple through global markets.

The government's inability to pay all its bills "would raise serious doubts about the nation's creditworthiness, sap the confidence of lenders, call into question the dollar's place as a reserve currency, and increase federal borrowing costs," Paul Van de Water from the nonpartisan Center on Budget and Policy Priorities wrote in a recent blog post.

"Under the present circumstances, even the serious threat of a US default could be enough to roil markets and further damage the global economy," he said.

In the unlikely event of a default, the consequences would be substantial, according to Eric Dor, director of economic studies at IESEG business school in France.

"The interest rates charged by investors on bonds issued by the United States would rise sharply," as would private debt, which uses US government debt as a benchmark, he said.

"This increase in the cost of credit would cause a drop in business and household investment, as well as in consumption, and thus a sharp recession in the United States," Dor continued, adding it could also cause a recession in Europe and elsewhere.

"A default would destabilize the global financial system, which depends on the stability of the dollar as the world's safe asset and primary reserve currency," Jean Ross from the nonpartisan Center for American Progress wrote in a recent article.

"A loss of confidence in the dollar could have far reaching economic and foreign policy ramifications, as other countries, particularly China, would use default to push for their currency to serve as the foundation of global trade," she said.

Could US debt be downgraded?

As the X-date draws closer, investors are nervously watching the ratings agencies for signs of a possible downgrade to US debt.

This last happened back in 2011, when a similar debt ceiling stand-off led ratings agency S&P to lower its US credit rating from AAA to AA+, drawing bipartisan outrage.

Even if the United States hits the debt ceiling but continues paying its bills, the ratings agencies will likely take note, according to Nathan Sheets from Citi, underscoring the need for a negotiated agreement ahead of time.

"Debates about whether or not you pay occurring periodically is typically not a feature that you would associate with a top credit" rating, he said.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
British police appear unprepared to deal with usual suspects
Russia's Ballistic Blitz on Kyiv Sends Shockwaves Through Global Stability
Multiple Tragedies and Tensions Mark Global Events: A Closer Look
Elon Musk's AfD Endorsement Ignites Controversy from neo-Nazis who accuse the AfD of being what they themselves are
Ukraine Claims Unprecedented Russian Losses: The Truth Behind Wartime Statistics
Federal Reserve Chair Powell: "We are prohibited from owning Bitcoin and are not seeking any changes to that law."
A Democratic congresswoman with blue and black hair is having a meltdown over "President Musk."
A sizable group of unauthorized migrants is traveling through Mexico with the aim of reaching the USA before Trump assumes office.
Beatles Reunion Electrifies London: Paul McCartney and Ringo Starr Ignite O2 Arena with Surprise Performance
Starmer's Envoy Engages Trump Team as UK Seeks Strategic U.S. Partnership
Britain's Retail Rebound Falters as Black Friday Splurge Dissipates
Bank of Japan's Bold Reckoning: A Decade of Unconventional Policy Under Scrutiny
Republican Discord Threatens Government Shutdown Amid Holiday Season
French Retiree Dominique Pellico Convicted for Recruiting 72 Men to Assault Wife Over a Decade
Putin Defends War Strategy as Global Tensions Rise
Putin Claims Progress as Tensions Rise: Conflict in Ukraine Intensifies
Putin's Paradox: Claiming Strength Amidst Sanctions and Isolation
Water as a Weapon: The Contentious Struggle for Survival in Gaza
Syria's Future: A Fight for Democracy or Another Cycle of Oppression?
UK Considers Sending Troops to Ukraine: A Strategic Move or Intensifying The Proxy War?
Renewed ISIS Threat Puts Syria’s Cultural Heritage in Peril
Escalation in Moscow: High-Profile Assassination and International Tensions Intensify
North Korean Troops in Ukraine: A New Cold War Frontier?
Ukraine's Bold Move: High-Stakes Assassination of Russian General in Moscow
Dubai's Technological Leap: Brain Chips and AI Board Members by 2025
Tragedy Strikes Wisconsin School as Shooting Claims Lives of Teacher and Student
UK's Calculated Gamble: Balancing Defense Aid to Ukraine and Domestic Demands
UK Intensifies Stranglehold on Russian Oil, but Does It Dampen Putin’s Resolve?
British Voter Endorsement of Reeves's Bold Tax Strategy
Nicola Sturgeon Warns of 'Toxic' Discourse: The Perils of Polarisation in Modern Politics
Levelling Down: How the Conservatives Underspent on Regional Revitalization
Alleged Chinese Espionage: The Entangled Web Beyond Prince Andrew
Starmer Navigates Diplomatic Tightrope Amid Chinese Espionage Revelations Involving Prince Andrew
Balancing Democracy and Disorder: The Trial of a Milkshake Incident
Royal Mail Enters New Chapter Under Czech Ownership
UK Companies Slash Jobs Amid Economic Strain
Kemi Badenoch Rekindles Flat Tax Debate Amid Inheritance Tax Uproar
Rewiring Whitehall: New Cabinet Secretary's Mandate for Change
Legal Battle Revives: Lucy Letby Seeks Fresh Appeal as Expert Evidence Faces Scrutiny
Accusations Fly as UK-China Relations Spark Tension Within British Politics
The Delicate Dance of Devolution: As English Council Elections Face Delays
The Alleged Chinese Spy at the Heart of British Royal Circles: Yang Tengbo Unmasked
Prince Andrew Withdraws from Royal Christmas Amidst Chinese Espionage Scandal
EU Takes Legal Action Against UK Over Allegedly Neglected Rights of EU Citizens
Disaster Strikes: Oil Spill in the Black Sea and Cyclone Devastation in Mayotte
Oil Tanker Disaster in the Kerch Strait: A Confluence of Environmental Catastrophe and Geopolitical Tensions
Olaf Scholz’s Gamble: The Collapse of Germany’s Coalition Government and the Path to Early Elections
Keir Starmer's 'Sycophantic' Tone: Tensions Rise Over UK-China Relations
Trump Recognizes Partial Advances in Ceasefire Attempts in Ukraine Conflict
UK Navigates Complex Global and Domestic Challenges Amid Security, Environmental, and Health Concerns
×