London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Sunday, Oct 19, 2025

Hong Kong November business activity shrinks most in 21 years

Hong Kong November business activity shrinks most in 21 years

Hong Kong's economic growth could turn negative as protests and US-China trade war continue to hurt business.
Business activity in Hong Kong contracted at the fastest pace in 21 years in November, dragged down by anti-government protests and softening global demand, an IHS Markit survey showed on Wednesday.

Increasingly violent demonstrations have disrupted the Chinese-ruled city for nearly six months, battering its retail and tourism sector and plunging its economy into recession for the first time in 10 years.

The seasonally adjusted headline Hong Kong Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) fell to 38.5 in November, down from 39.3 in October and signalling the steepest private sector downturn since April 2003.

A survey reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a figure below 50 denotes contraction on a monthly basis.

"Escalating political unrest saw business activity shrinking at the steepest rate since the survey started in July 1998," said Bernard Aw, principal economist at IHS Markit.

"The average PMI reading for October and November combined showed the economy on track to see gross domestic product (GDP) fall by over 5 percent in the fourth quarter unless December brings a dramatic recovery."

Demand from mainland China shrank for a nineteenth straight month in November, although the pace of contraction eased from October.

Companies also continued to scale back their purchases of raw materials and other inputs, with 38 percent of survey respondents predicting weaker activity in the year ahead, citing political unrest and the protracted trade war between the United States and China.

Hong Kong's retail sales fell the most on record in October, sinking 24.3 percent from a year earlier, government data showed on Monday. Tourist arrivals plunged nearly 44 percent.

Protesters are angry by what they see as Beijing's tightening grip over the city's cherished freedoms promised under a "one country, two systems" formula when Britain returned it to Chinese rule in 1997.

China denies interfering and says it is committed to the "one country, two systems" formula put in place at that time and has blamed foreign forces for fomenting unrest.

The crisis has heightened tensions between Washington and Beijing, complicating the two sides' efforts to negotiate a trade deal.

Economists at ING said Hong Kong is sliding into a hard-landing recession.

"No one is expecting a sudden end to the violent situation. We're forecasting GDP growth at (negative) 7 percent for the fourth quarter, and full-year growth will be (negative) 2.25 percent in 2019, which is close in scale to 2009's recession of (negative) 2.5 percent," they said in a note on Monday.

The economy could shrink 5.8 percent in 2020, assuming trade war uncertainty and violent protests drag on through the year, ING said.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Windows’ Own ‘Siri’ Has Arrived: You Can Now Talk to Your Computer
Thailand and Singapore Investigate Cambodian-Based Prince Group as U.S. and U.K. Sanctions Unfold
‘No Kings’ Protests Inflate Numbers — But History Shows Nations Collapse Without Strong Executive Power
Chinese Tech Giants Halt Stablecoin Launches After Beijing’s Regulatory Intervention
Manhattan Jury Holds BNP Paribas Liable for Enabling Sudanese Government Abuses
Trump Orders Immediate Release of Former Congressman George Santos After Commuting Prison Sentence
S&P Downgrades France’s Credit Rating, Citing Soaring Debt and Political Instability
Ofcom Rules BBC’s Gaza Documentary ‘Materially Misleading’ Over Narrator’s Hamas Ties
Diane Keaton’s Cause of Death Revealed as Pneumonia, Family Confirms
Former Lostprophets Frontman Ian Watkins Stabbed to Death in British Prison
"The Tsunami Is Coming, and It’s Massive": The World’s Richest Man Unveils a New AI Vision
Outsider, Heroine, Trailblazer: Diane Keaton Was Always a Little Strange — and Forever One of a Kind
Dramatic Development in the Death of 'Mango' Founder: Billionaire's Son Suspected of Murder
Two Years of Darkness: The Harrowing Testimonies of Israeli Hostages Emerging From Gaza Captivity
EU Moves to Use Frozen Russian Assets to Buy U.S. Weapons for Ukraine
Europe Emerges as the Biggest Casualty in U.S.-China Rare Earth Rivalry
HSBC Confronts Strategic Crossroads as NAB Seeks Only Retail Arm in Australia Exit
U.S. Chamber Sues Trump Over $100,000 H-1B Visa Fee
Shenzhen Expo Spotlights China’s Quantum Step in Semiconductor Self-Reliance
China Accelerates to the Forefront in Global Nuclear Fusion Race
Yachts, Private Jets, and a Picasso Painting: Exposed as 'One of the Largest Frauds in History'
Australia’s Wedgetail Spies Aid NATO Response as Russian MiGs Breach Estonian Airspace
McGowan Urges Chalmers to Cut Spending Over Tax Hike to Close $20 Billion Budget Gap
Victoria Orders Review of Transgender Prison Placement Amid Safety Concerns for Female Inmates
U.S. Treasury Mobilises New $20 Billion Debt Facility to Stabilise Argentina
French Business Leaders Decry Budget as Macron’s Pro-Enterprise Promise Undermined
Trump Claims Modi Pledged India Would End Russian Oil Imports Amid U.S. Tariff Pressure
Surging AI Startup Valuations Fuel Bubble Concerns Among Top Investors
Australian Punter Archie Wilson Tears Up During Nebraska Press Conference, Sparking Conversation on Male Vulnerability
Australia Confirms U.S. Access to Upgraded Submarine Shipyard Under AUKUS Deal
“Firepower” Promised for Ukraine as NATO Ministers Meet — But U.S. Tomahawks Remain Undecided
Brands Confront New Dilemma as Extremists Adopt Fashion Labels
The Sydney Sweeney and Jeans Storm: “The Outcome Surpassed Our Wildest Dreams”
Erika Kirk Delivers Moving Tribute at White House as Trump Awards Charlie Presidential Medal of Freedom
British Food Influencer ‘Big John’ Detained in Australia After Visa Dispute
ScamBodia: The Chinese Fraud Empire Shielded by Cambodia’s Ruling Elite
French PM Suspends Macron’s Pension Reform Until After 2027 in Bid to Stabilize Government
Orange, Bouygues and Free Make €17 Billion Bid for Drahi’s Altice France Telecom Assets
Dutch Government Seizes Chipmaker After U.S. Presses for Removal of Chinese CEO
Bessent Accuses China of Dragging Down Global Economy Amid New Trade Curbs
U.S. Revokes Visas of Foreign Nationals Who ‘Celebrated’ Charlie Kirk’s Assassination
AI and Cybersecurity at Forefront as GITEX Global 2025 Kicks Off in Dubai
DJI Loses Appeal to Remove Pentagon’s ‘Chinese Military Company’ Label
EU Deploys New Biometric Entry/Exit System: What Non-EU Travelers Must Know
Australian Prime Minister’s Private Number Exposed Through AI Contact Scraper
Ex-Microsoft Engineer Confirms Famous Windows XP Key Was Leaked Corporate License, Not a Hack
China’s lesson for the US: it takes more than chips to win the AI race
Australia Faces Demographic Risk as Fertility Falls to Record Low
California County Reinstates Mask Mandate in Health Facilities as Respiratory Illness Risk Rises
Israel and Hamas Agree to First Phase of Trump-Brokered Gaza Truce, Hostages to Be Freed
×