London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Mar 16, 2026

Coronavirus: Global growth ‘could halve’ if outbreak intensifies

The global economy could grow at its slowest rate since 2009 this year due to the coronavirus outbreak, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has warned.
The influential think tank has forecast growth of just 2.4% in 2020, down from 2.9% in November.

But it said a longer "more intensive" outbreak could halve growth to 1.5%.

It came after the Bank of England vowed to help stabilise markets, which suffered steep losses last week.

Coronavirus is already forcing businesses to suspend operations in China and elsewhere as officials try to contain its spread.

The OECD forecast the global economy could recover to 3.3% growth in 2021, assuming the epidemic peaked in China in the first quarter of this year and other outbreaks proved mild and contained.

But it said the picture would be much worse if the virus spread throughout Asia, Europe and North America.

"The main message from this downside scenario is that it would put many countries into a recession, which is why we are urging measures to be taken in the affected areas as quickly as possible," said Laurence Boone, the OECD's chief economist.

Last week saw major stock markets suffer their worst weekly performance since the 2008 financial crisis, with $1.5 trillion being wiped off the value of global shares. Investors now hope central banks around the world will work in unison to support financial markets as the deadly virus spreads.

On Monday, the Bank of England said it continued to monitor developments and was assessing its potential impact on the global and UK economies and financial systems.

"The Bank is working closely with HM Treasury and the FCA (Financial Conduct Authority) - as well as our international partners - to ensure all necessary steps are taken to protect financial and monetary stability," a spokesman said.

Japan's central bank and the US Federal Reserve have also said they are prepared to intervene to stop more big falls on global stock markets.

Buoyed by the news, US stocks opened higher on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 indexes both gaining 0.7%.

London's FTSE 100 index closed 1.2% higher, while China's Shanghai Composite index gained 3.2% and Japan's benchmark index, the Nikkei 225, climbed 1%.

On Monday, the privately-run Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index showed the fastest rate of contraction in China's factory activity since the survey was launched in 2004. That followed the release on Saturday of equally weak official numbers.

Both sets of data come after employers across the country were ordered to remain closed after the annual Chinese New Year holiday as part of attempts by authorities to stem the spread of the virus.

The falls, which were even worse than the slump seen during the 2008 global financial crisis, highlighted the outbreak's huge impact on the world's second-largest economy.

The OECD said governments would have to step in if the virus worsened, providing extra support for their health systems and emergency loans for hard hit industries.

"A G20 coordinated health, fiscal and monetary policy response would not only send a strong confidence message but also multiply the effect of national actions," Mr Boone added.

Over the weekend senior officials in President Donald Trump's administration also tried to soothe concerns about the impact of the outbreak, highlighting the US economy's underlying strength.

US Vice-President Mike Pence, who is leading the administration's response to the coronavirus, said that the stock market "will come back", adding that "the fundamentals of this economy are strong".
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
King Charles and Queen Camilla Share Personal Tributes to Their Mothers on UK Mother’s Day
UK Economy Stalls in January as Households Cut Back on Eating Out
AI-Generated Singer Becomes Viral Voice for Iranians With New Anthem
London Private Club Founder Plans Exclusive Palm Beach Venue Near Trump’s Mar-a-Lago
Ed Davey Urges Britain to Build Fully Independent Nuclear Missile Capability
What the UK Covid Inquiry Is and How It Investigates Britain’s Pandemic Response
What the UK Covid Inquiry Is and How It Investigates Britain’s Pandemic Response
US Treasury Links British Polo Patrons to Alleged Venezuelan Oil Proceeds Laundering Scheme
Hundreds Gather in London Despite Ban on Annual Pro-Palestinian March
Two Dead and Multiple Students Seriously Ill After Invasive Meningitis Outbreak at UK University
UK Considers Deploying Ships and Mine-Hunting Drones to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
Starmer and Trump Discuss Urgent Need to Reopen Strait of Hormuz Amid Escalating Iran Conflict
Prince Harry and Meghan Markle’s Planned Australia Visit Draws Mixed Reaction From Local Communities
Trump Calls on France and UK to Help Safeguard Strait of Hormuz Shipping Route
Boris Johnson Labels Bitcoin a ‘Ponzi Scheme’, Sparking Debate in Crypto World
UK Considers Targeted Aid for Vulnerable Households as Energy Costs Rise
Stellantis Urges Immediate Review of UK Electric Vehicle Sales Targets
Home Office Reverses Course to Allow Some Dual Nationals to Enter UK Using EU Passports
Reform UK Proposes Replacing Top Civil Servants With Officials Aligned to Government Agenda
Netflix Adds Critically Acclaimed ‘Best Film of 2025’ With Perfect Rotten Tomatoes Score
‘The Sums Don’t Add Up’: UK Farmers Hit by Soaring Costs as Iran War Disrupts Global Supplies
Confidential UK Biobank Health Records Found Online After Researchers Accidentally Expose Data
Trump Urges Britain and Allies to Deploy Warships to Safeguard Strait of Hormuz
Trump Urges Britain and Allies to Deploy Warships to Safeguard Strait of Hormuz
Middle East War Highlights Strategic Importance of Strong UK–Ireland Cooperation
Weak Growth Signals UK Economy Was Faltering Even Before Middle East Energy Shock
Marks & Spencer Tops UK Fashion Retail Rankings as Most Considered Brand
United States Launches Trade Investigation Into Allies Over Forced Labour Practices
United States Launches Trade Investigation Into Allies Over Forced Labour Practices
Russia Accuses Britain Over Storm Shadow Strike as London Reaffirms Ukraine’s Right to Self-Defence
Russia Accuses Britain Over Storm Shadow Strike as London Reaffirms Ukraine’s Right to Self-Defence
Royal Navy to Acquire Twenty Uncrewed Surface Vessels for Autonomous Warfare Testing
Russia Summons British and French Envoys After Ukrainian Storm Shadow Strike on Strategic Facility
Starmer Confirms Britain Will Maintain Sanctions on Russia Despite U.S. Policy Shift
UK Moves to Refine AI Definition in Investment Security Reform
UK Economy Stalls in January as Growth Unexpectedly Falls to Zero
Asian Energy Security Tested as Strait of Hormuz Disruption Threatens Oil Supplies
Iran Sets Three Conditions for Ending Regional War as Diplomatic Efforts Intensify
Tesla Secures Approval to Supply Electricity Directly to Homes Across Britain
Prince William Delivers Tribute to Australia’s Naval Alliance Amid Renewed Royal Spotlight on the Country
UK Foreign Secretary Travels to Saudi Arabia to Reinforce Support for Regional Allies
Putin’s ‘Hidden Hand’ May Be Assisting Iran in Conflict With Trump, UK Defence Secretary Warns
UK Sets April Deadline for Tech Platforms to Strengthen Online Protections for Children
Elon Musk Moves Into Britain’s Energy Market as Tesla Wins Licence to Supply Power
UK Watchdog Warns Fuel Retailers Against Profiteering Amid Iran War Price Surge
Report Claims Iran Used UK Charity Network to Expand Influence
United States and United Kingdom Establish Joint Standards for Counter-Drone Technology
Iran May Be Laying Naval Mines in Strait of Hormuz, UK Warns Amid Escalating Gulf Tensions
US Deploys Bunker-Buster Bombs to UK Airbase as Iran Conflict Intensifies
British Troops in Iraq Intercept Iranian Drones Targeting Coalition Base
×