London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Nov 21, 2025

What we know -- and what we don't -- about the UK coronavirus variant

What we know -- and what we don't -- about the UK coronavirus variant

The United Kingdom has identified a new, more contagious coronavirus variant linked to a recent surge in cases in England.

The new mutation is being called VUI-202012/01 -- the first "Variant Under Investigation" in the UK in December 2020. While scientists hunt for more information about the variant, its impact is already being felt, with dozens of countries imposing restrictions on travelers from the UK.

Here's what you need to know.

What is a variant and why are officials concerned about this one?


A variant occurs when the genetic structure of a virus changes. All viruses mutate over time and new variants are common, including for the novel coronavirus.

Like other variants, this one carries a genetic fingerprint that makes it easy to track, and it happens to be one that is now widespread in southeast England.

That alone does not necessarily mean a variant is more contagious or dangerous.

But scientists advising the UK government have estimated that this variant could be up to 70% more effective at spreading than others. Peter Horby, chair of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG), said Wednesday that scientists were "confident" the new variant is "spreading faster than other virus variants."

Speaking at an emergency meeting of the UK Parliament Science and Technology Committee, Horby explained that the new variant has "some kind of biological advantage to make it spread faster."

Scientists still don't have a complete picture as to why, he said, but that there were a few different scenarios they were investigating.

There is preliminary evidence to suggest that the new strain results in a person holding a higher viral load, which means the virus is easier to pass on, Horby said.

Another possibility is that people are becoming infected more quickly after exposure, he said. It's also possible, he added, that people are infectious for longer.

All of these potential explanations, however, lead to the same conclusion: The virus is spreading faster.

England's chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, has said the variant contains 23 changes, including 17 key "non-synonymous" mutations.

"These are ones that change the protein sequence of one of the viral genes," said Jeffrey Barrett, lead Covid-19 statistical geneticist at the UK's Wellcome Sanger Institute, according to the Science Media Centre.

The World Health Organization said Tuesday that these mutations "may influence the transmissibility of the virus in humans," though it added that further laboratory investigations were needed.

Scientist Neil Ferguson, a member of NERVTAG, said Monday that the variant may be more infectious for children. "There is a hint is that [the variant] ... has a higher propensity to infect children," he told a press briefing organized by the Science Media Centre (SMC), though he cautioned that more data was needed.

Severe illness due to Covid-19 is still relatively rare for children.

The findings have immediate implications for virus control. More cases could place an even greater strain on hospitals and health care staff just as they enter an already particularly difficult winter period, and ultimately lead to more deaths.

Where did the variant originate and how has it taken hold?


The new variant is believed to have originated in southeast England, according to the WHO. Public Health England (PHE) says backwards tracing, using genetic evidence, suggests the variant first emerged in England in September. It then circulated in very low levels until mid-November.

"The increase in cases linked to the new variant first came to light in late November when PHE was investigating why infection rates in Kent [in southeast
England] were not falling despite national restrictions. We then discovered a cluster linked to this variant spreading rapidly into London and Essex," PHE said.

But Sharon Peacock, professor of public health and microbiology at the University of Cambridge, said scientists did not know whether the mutation had originated in southeast England or whether it was introduced there from elsewhere.

Speaking at a press briefing on Tuesday, Peacock also praised the strength of the UK's genetic surveillance operation. "If you're going to find [a variant] anywhere, you're going to find it probably here first," she said. "And if this occurs in places that don't have any sequencing, you're not going to find it at all unless you're using [other methods.]"

Whitty said Saturday the variant was responsible for 60% of new infections in London, which have nearly doubled in the last week alone. On Wednesday,
Northern Ireland's Health Minister Robin Swann said the variant was detected in its borders.

The region's health authorities said it was "increasingly likely" that the new variant has established itself across the UK."I would advise the public to act on the assumption that it is already well established in Northern Ireland and that the person they pass in the street or stand next to in a queue may have it," the region's Chief Medical Officer Dr. Michael McBride said in a statement.

Some experts have suggested that this new variant could have been amplified because of a superspreader event, meaning the current spike in cases could also have been caused by human behavior.

"When we first started to see this enormous rise, it could have been a number of things. It could have been [due to] changes in behavior," said Judith Breuer, professor of virology at UCL, during a briefing on Tuesday.

"[But now] it is very clear that there is a significant rise in the prevalence of this variant and that this is likely to be due to biological features of the variant and indeed increased transmissability."

Which countries are affected?


The variant has already spread globally. As well as the UK, the variant has also been detected in Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands and Australia, according to the WHO.

Australia has identified two cases of the variant in a quarantined area in Sydney and Italy has also identified one patient infected with the variant.

A similar but separate variant has also been identified in South Africa, where scientists say it is spreading quickly along coastal areas of the country.

On Wednesday, British health authorities said that two cases of the South African variant had been detected in the UK. Public Health England Managing

Director Susan Hopkins said that the Covid-19 variants discovered in the UK and in South Africa are both "more transmissible."

Is the new variant more deadly?


There is no evidence as of now to suggest that the new variant is more deadly, according to Whitty and the WHO, though it is too early to tell.

Several experts have noted that in some cases, virus mutations that increase transmissibility are accompanied by a drop in virulence and mortality rates.

"As viruses are transmitted, those that allow for increased virological 'success' can be selected for, which changes the properties of the virus over time. This typically leads to more transmission and less virulence," Martin Hibberd, professor of emerging infectious disease at the London School of Hygiene &

Tropical Medicine, told the SMC.

Will the developed vaccines work against this variant?


There are no signs yet that the current vaccine frontrunners won't work against this new variant, experts and drugmakers have said.

The companies behind the first two vaccines to gain authorization in the US -- Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna -- are testing their shots to double-check that they're effective against the variant.

The coronavirus has mutated before, and both firms say their vaccines worked against other variations of the virus.

BioNTech's CEO Ugur Sahin said he has "scientific confidence" that the current Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine could work against the new variant, but full data will be available in two weeks.

Some US-based scientists have said that it's possible this new variant might, to a small extent, undermine the vaccines.

Trevor Bedford, an associate professor in the vaccine and infectious disease division of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, said: "You could imagine some modest hit to vaccine efficacy, which wouldn't be good, but I don't think it will break the vaccine."

Bedford explained that the variant could possibly lower the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine's effectiveness from 95%, which would be a "a modest effect -- not a dramatic effect."

BioNTech's Sahin said the new variant may however require countries to vaccinate more of the population, raising the bar for achieving herd immunity.

"[On] the topic of herd immunity there is always the discussion about 60-70%," he told a news conference Tuesday. "But if the virus becomes more efficient in infecting people, we might need even a high vaccination rate to ensure that normal life can continue without interruption."

What measures are being taken to contain the variant?


Large swathes of England, including London and the southeast, are now under strict Tier 4 Covid-19 restrictions, and UK government health experts have suggested additional restrictions could be required to beat back this variant.

Dozens of countries across Europe, the Middle East and the Americas have also announced travel bans for the UK, or new testing and quarantine requirements for UK arrivals.

The White House is considering requiring travelers from the UK to present proof of a negative test before arriving in the US, two administration officials have told CNN.

In the UK, new measures were announced to combat the potential spread of the South African variant on Wednesday, with travelers arriving into the UK from South Africa now having to quarantine for 15 days upon arrival. People in the UK who have been in contact with people arriving from South Africa in the past 15 days have also been instructed to go into quarantine immediately.

In its press release on Tuesday, the WHO issued a reminder of the basic measures to reduce the transmission of the virus: avoid close contact with people who are infected, wash your hands frequently, and wear a mask.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
ASU Launches ASU London, Extending Its Innovation Brand to the UK Education Market
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer to Visit China in January as Diplomatic Reset Accelerates
Google Launches Voluntary Buyouts for UK Staff Amid AI-Driven Company Realignment
UK braces for freezing snap as snow and ice warnings escalate
Majority of UK Novelists Fear AI Could Displace Their Work, Cambridge Study Finds
UK's Carrier Strike Group Achieves Full Operational Capability During NATO Drill in Mediterranean
Trump and Mamdani to Meet at the White House: “The Communist Asked”
Nvidia Again Beats Forecasts, Shares Jump in After-Hours Trading
Wintry Conditions Persist Along UK Coasts After Up to Seven Centimetres of Snow
UK Inflation Eases to 3.6 % in October, Opening Door for Rate Cut
UK Accelerates Munitions Factory Build-Out to Reinforce Warfighting Readiness
UK Consumer Optimism Plunges Ahead of November Budget
A Decade of Innovation Stagnation at Apple: The Cook Era Critique
Caribbean Reparations Commission Seeks ‘Mutually Beneficial’ Justice from UK
EU Insists UK Must Contribute Financially for Access to Electricity Market and Broader Ties
UK to Outlaw Live-Event Ticket Resales Above Face Value
President Donald Trump Hosts Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at White House to Seal Major Defence and Investment Deals
German Entertainment Icons Alice and Ellen Kessler Die Together at Age 89
UK Unveils Sweeping Asylum Reforms with 20-Year Settlement Wait and Conditional Status
UK Orders Twitter Hacker to Repay £4.1 Million Following 2020 High-Profile Breach
Popeyes UK Eyes Century Mark as Fried-Chicken Chain Accelerates Roll-out
Two-thirds of UK nurses report working while unwell amid staffing crisis
Britain to Reform Human-Rights Laws in Sweeping Asylum Policy Overhaul
Nearly Half of Job Losses Under Labour Government Affect UK Youth
UK Chancellor Reeves Eyes High-Value Home Levy in Budget to Raise Tens of Billions
UK Urges Poland to Choose Swedish Submarines in Multi-Billion € Defence Bid
US Border Czar Tom Homan Declares UK No Longer a ‘Friend’ Amid Intelligence Rift
UK Announces Reversal of Income Tax Hike Plans Ahead of Budget
Starmer Faces Mounting Turmoil as Leaked Briefings Ignite Leadership Plot Rumours
UK Commentator Sami Hamdi Returns Home After US Visa Revocation and Detention
UK Eyes Denmark-Style Asylum Rules in Major Migration Shift
UK Signals Intelligence Freeze Amid US Maritime Drug-Strike Campaign
TikTok Awards UK & Ireland 2025 Celebrates Top Creators Including Max Klymenko as Creator of the Year
UK Growth Nearly Stalls at 0.1% in Q3 as Cyberattack Halts Car Production
Apple Denied Permission to Appeal UK App Store Ruling, Faces Over £1bn Liability
UK Chooses Wylfa for First Small Modular Reactors, Drawing Sharp U.S. Objection
Starmer Faces Growing Labour Backlash as Briefing Sparks Authority Crisis
Reform UK Withdraws from BBC Documentary Amid Legal Storm Over Trump Speech Edit
UK Prime Minister Attempts to Reassert Authority Amid Internal Labour Leadership Drama
UK Upholds Firm Rules on Stablecoins to Shield Financial System
Brussels Divided as UK-EU Reset Stalls Over Budget Access
Prince Harry’s Remembrance Day Essay Expresses Strong Regret at Leaving Britain
UK Unemployment Hits 5% as Wage Growth Slows, Paving Way for Bank of England Rate Cut
Starmer Warns of Resurgent Racism in UK Politics as He Vows Child-Poverty Reforms
UK Grocery Inflation Slows to 4.7% as Supermarkets Launch Pre-Christmas Promotions
UK Government Backs the BBC amid Editing Scandal and Trump Threat of Legal Action
UK Assessment Mis-Estimated Fallout From Palestine Action Ban, Records Reveal
UK Halts Intelligence Sharing with US Amid Lethal Boat-Strike Concerns
King Charles III Leads Britain in Remembrance Sunday Tribute to War Dead
UK Retail Sales Growth Slows as Households Hold Back Ahead of Black Friday and Budget
×