London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Oct 06, 2025

Financial chiefs attending Starmer speech is significant - they can see which way the wind is blowing

Financial chiefs attending Starmer speech is significant - they can see which way the wind is blowing

The head of the CBI, leading chief executives and other prominent economists (including, via videolink, former Bank of England governor Mark Carney) all turned up - they did so because in much the same way as their predecessors did in 2009, they can see which way the wind is blowing.

Let's get the policy stuff out of the way first.

Labour has an economic growth target.

They want to achieve the highest sustainable growth per head rate of the seven major industrialised economies. They say that unless we do something to change the path of British economic growth we will end up poorer than Poland by 2030.

That last fact, one reiterated by Sir Keir Starmer today, probably sounds quite horrifying, but it's not quite what it seems.

Not that it's incorrect: it's certainly borne out by the numbers.

As of 2021, the UK's gross domestic product per capita was just under $45,000 (£37,000).

That compares to just under $35,000 (£29,000) in Poland (the numbers here are adjusted to account for how far your money goes in each country, something called purchasing power parity).

Extrapolate the growth rates from the past decade forward (the UK's is low at 0.7%, Poland's is high at 3.4%) and by 2030 Poland's GDP per capita is $48,000 (£40,000) and the UK's is $47,700 (£39,700).

But the UK is hardly an outlier. On the basis of this thought experiment, Poland would also be richer, in GDP per capita terms, than Japan, France and Italy by 2030.

It rather underlines the point that while the UK's recent economic performance is certainly poor, it is far from an outlier. And that these statistical thought experiments only go so far.

Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of England, watches via videolink as Sir Keir Starmer (second right) details his party's growth mission


Consider: let's imagine that the UK had gone far beyond Labour's new economic pledge in recent years.

Let's imagine it had matched the strongest GDP per capita growth in the group of seven industrialised economies (UK, US, Japan, Canada, Italy, France, Germany) not just for two successive years (as the small print to this new pledge says) but for ten successive years.

That would be a massive achievement.

Britain has only had the strongest GDP per capita growth rate for a handful of years going back recent decades. But here's the thing: even if you extrapolated this stronger growth rate (2% on average over the past decade) forward, things would still look a bit depressing vis-à-vis Poland. Our imaginary fastest-in-the-G7 UK would still be overtaken by Poland by 2037.

Anyway, tearing too deep into statistical nuggets like these invariably ends with a reductio ad absurdum.

Nor is there much point in getting too het up about the fact that Labour has yet to provide much detail on how it will actually achieve this very ambitious goal (it hasn't). No one would expect the opposition to provide detailed, solid manifesto pledges quite so far from the next election.

Perhaps the most interesting dimension of today's economic event is something else: the vibe.

I can remember how, in 2009 and early 2010, something shifted in the political landscape.

The Labour Party were on the way out and the Tories were on the way in, and all of a sudden you started to spot the great and the good at Conservative events.

Today felt similar.

The head of the Confederation of British Industry, leading chief executives and other prominent economists (including, via videolink, former Bank of England governor Mark Carney) all turned up for a Labour event.

They did so because in much the same way as their predecessors did in 2009, they can see which way the wind is blowing. They aren't bothered about pledges like the one about economic growth.

They care about the fact that these people may soon be in government.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Trump Stands Firm in Shutdown Showdown and Declares War on Drug Cartels — Turning Crisis into Opportunity
Surge of U.S. Billionaires Transforms London’s Peninsula Apartments into Ultra-Luxury Stronghold
Pro Europe and Anti-War Babiš Poised to Return to Power After Czech Parliamentary Vote
Jeff Bezos Calls AI Surge a ‘Good’ Bubble, Urges Focus on Lasting Innovation
Japan’s Ruling Party Chooses Sanae Takaichi, Clearing Path to First Female Prime Minister
Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs Sentenced to Fifty Months in Prison Following Prostitution Conviction
Taylor Swift’s ‘Showgirl’ Launch Extends Billion-Dollar Empire
Trump Administration Launches “TrumpRx” Plan to Enable Direct Drug Sales at Deep Discounts
Trump Announces Intention to Impose 100 Percent Tariff on Foreign-Made Films
Altman Says GPT-5 Already Outpaces Him, Warns AI Could Automate 40% of Work
Singapore and Hong Kong Vie to Dominate Asia’s Rising Gold Trade
Trump Organization Teams with Saudi Developer on $1 Billion Trump Plaza in Jeddah
Manhattan Sees Surge in Office-to-Housing Conversions, Highest Since 2008
Switzerland and U.S. Issue Joint Assurance Against Currency Manipulation
Electronic Arts to Be Taken Private in Historic $55 Billion Buyout
Thomas Jacob Sanford Named as Suspect in Deadly Michigan Church Shooting and Arson
Russian Research Vessel 'Yantar' Tracked Mapping Europe’s Subsea Cables, Raising Security Alarms
New York Man Arrested After On-Air Confession to 2017 Parents’ Murders
U.S. Defense Chief Orders Sudden Summit of Hundreds of Generals and Admirals
Global Cruise Industry Posts Dramatic Comeback with 34.6 Million Passengers in 2024
Trump Claims FBI Planted 274 Agents at Capitol Riot, Citing Unverified Reports
India: Internet Suspended in Bareilly Amid Communal Clashes Between Muslims and Hindus
Supreme Court Extends Freeze on Nearly $5 Billion in U.S. Foreign Aid at Trump’s Request
Archaeologists Recover Statues and Temples from 2,000-Year-Old Sunken City off Alexandria
China Deploys 2,000 Workers to Spain to Build Major EV Battery Factory, Raising European Dependence
Speed Takes Over: How Drive-Through Coffee Chains Are Rewriting U.S. Coffee Culture
U.S. Demands Brussels Scrutinize Digital Rules to Prevent Bias Against American Tech
Ringo Starr Champions Enduring Beatles Legacy While Debuting Las Vegas Art Show
Private Equity’s Fundraising Surge Triggers Concern of European Market Shake-Out
Colombian President Petro Vows to Mobilize Volunteers for Gaza and Joins List of Fighters
FBI Removes Agents Who Kneeled at 2020 Protest, Citing Breach of Professional Conduct
Trump Alleges ‘Triple Sabotage’ at United Nations After Escalator and Teleprompter Failures
Shock in France: 5 Years in Prison for Former President Nicolas Sarkozy
Tokyo’s Jimbōchō Named World’s Coolest Neighbourhood for 2025
European Officials Fear Trump May Shift Blame for Ukraine War onto EU
BNP Paribas Abandons Ban on 'Controversial Weapons' Financing Amid Europe’s Defence Push
Typhoon Ragasa Leaves Trail of Destruction Across East Asia Before Making Landfall in China
The Personality Rights Challenge in India’s AI Era
Big Banks Rebuild in Hong Kong as Deal Volume Surges
Italy Considers Freezing Retirement Age at 67 to Avert Scheduled Hike
Italian City to Impose Tax on Visiting Dogs Starting in 2026
Arnault Denounces Proposed Wealth Tax as Threat to French Economy
Study Finds No Safe Level of Alcohol for Dementia Risk
Denmark Investigates Drone Incursion, Does Not Rule Out Russian Involvement
Lilly CEO Warns UK Is ‘Worst Country in Europe’ for Drug Prices, Pulls Back Investment
Nigel Farage Emerges as Central Force in British Politics with Reform UK Surge
Disney Reinstates ‘Jimmy Kimmel Live!’ after Six-Day Suspension over Charlie Kirk Comments
U.S. Prosecutors Move to Break Up Google’s Advertising Monopoly
Nvidia Pledges Up to $100 Billion Investment in OpenAI to Power Massive AI Data Center Build-Out
U.S. Signals ‘Large and Forceful’ Support for Argentina Amid Market Turmoil
×