London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Sep 30, 2026

Financial chiefs attending Starmer speech is significant - they can see which way the wind is blowing

Financial chiefs attending Starmer speech is significant - they can see which way the wind is blowing

The head of the CBI, leading chief executives and other prominent economists (including, via videolink, former Bank of England governor Mark Carney) all turned up - they did so because in much the same way as their predecessors did in 2009, they can see which way the wind is blowing.

Let's get the policy stuff out of the way first.

Labour has an economic growth target.

They want to achieve the highest sustainable growth per head rate of the seven major industrialised economies. They say that unless we do something to change the path of British economic growth we will end up poorer than Poland by 2030.

That last fact, one reiterated by Sir Keir Starmer today, probably sounds quite horrifying, but it's not quite what it seems.

Not that it's incorrect: it's certainly borne out by the numbers.

As of 2021, the UK's gross domestic product per capita was just under $45,000 (£37,000).

That compares to just under $35,000 (£29,000) in Poland (the numbers here are adjusted to account for how far your money goes in each country, something called purchasing power parity).

Extrapolate the growth rates from the past decade forward (the UK's is low at 0.7%, Poland's is high at 3.4%) and by 2030 Poland's GDP per capita is $48,000 (£40,000) and the UK's is $47,700 (£39,700).

But the UK is hardly an outlier. On the basis of this thought experiment, Poland would also be richer, in GDP per capita terms, than Japan, France and Italy by 2030.

It rather underlines the point that while the UK's recent economic performance is certainly poor, it is far from an outlier. And that these statistical thought experiments only go so far.

Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of England, watches via videolink as Sir Keir Starmer (second right) details his party's growth mission


Consider: let's imagine that the UK had gone far beyond Labour's new economic pledge in recent years.

Let's imagine it had matched the strongest GDP per capita growth in the group of seven industrialised economies (UK, US, Japan, Canada, Italy, France, Germany) not just for two successive years (as the small print to this new pledge says) but for ten successive years.

That would be a massive achievement.

Britain has only had the strongest GDP per capita growth rate for a handful of years going back recent decades. But here's the thing: even if you extrapolated this stronger growth rate (2% on average over the past decade) forward, things would still look a bit depressing vis-à-vis Poland. Our imaginary fastest-in-the-G7 UK would still be overtaken by Poland by 2037.

Anyway, tearing too deep into statistical nuggets like these invariably ends with a reductio ad absurdum.

Nor is there much point in getting too het up about the fact that Labour has yet to provide much detail on how it will actually achieve this very ambitious goal (it hasn't). No one would expect the opposition to provide detailed, solid manifesto pledges quite so far from the next election.

Perhaps the most interesting dimension of today's economic event is something else: the vibe.

I can remember how, in 2009 and early 2010, something shifted in the political landscape.

The Labour Party were on the way out and the Tories were on the way in, and all of a sudden you started to spot the great and the good at Conservative events.

Today felt similar.

The head of the Confederation of British Industry, leading chief executives and other prominent economists (including, via videolink, former Bank of England governor Mark Carney) all turned up for a Labour event.

They did so because in much the same way as their predecessors did in 2009, they can see which way the wind is blowing. They aren't bothered about pledges like the one about economic growth.

They care about the fact that these people may soon be in government.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Equity Calls for UK Personality Rights to Protect Performers From AI Replication
OpenAI Pauses Advanced Model Training Following Safety Concerns
Scottish Government Proposes Replacing 32 Councils With Larger Regional Authorities
Ofgem Raises UK Household Energy Price Cap by 4% From October
UK Counter-Terrorism Police Continue Investigation After Five Arrests Near RAF Fairford
OECD Cuts UK 2027 Growth Forecast to 1%
Labour Says State Pension Triple Lock Remains Protected Through Current Parliament
Andy Burnham Pledges National Care Service With Free Social Care in England
Six Flags Permanently Shuts Landmark X2 Roller Coaster Following Safety Scandals
Metropolitan Police Rule Out Terrorism in Golders Green Stabbing Investigation
Lithium-Ion Battery Identified as Cause of Fatal Merseyside House Fire
UK Department Rejects New Sea Use Framework Due to Stakeholder Fatigue
Major Thames Water Pipe Burst Causes School Closures in London
Aldi Commits £900 Million to Expand UK Supermarket Network
Scottish Affairs Committee Warns Skills Shortages Threaten Defence Sector Expansion
Parliamentary Committee Warns Northern Ireland Budget Deadlock is Stalling Economic Growth
NHS Hospitals in England Face Severe Shortages of Essential Medications
Home Secretary Signals Major Overhaul of UK Immigration and Leave to Remain Policies
Chancellor Promises New Job Schemes Alongside Strict Fiscal Discipline
Energy Secretary Proposes Taxpayer-Funded Green Transition and National Electricity Grid
UK Government to Renationalise Avanti West Coast Railway Franchise in March
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Pledges Major Social Care and Infrastructure Reforms
Five Suspects Released on Bail Following Alleged Bomb Plot Near RAF Fairford
UK Diesel Prices Hit Record High of 199p Per Litre
Transport for Wales and Network Rail Complete Electrification of South Wales Metro
Defra Expands Incentives for Sustainable Farming and Biodiversity in England
Northern Ireland Executive Approves Funding Package to Resolve Public Sector Pay Disputes
Universities UK Warns of Financial Insolvency Risks for Higher Education Institutions
UK Prisons Activate Emergency Protocols to Manage Capacity Pressures
UK Government Establishes New Safety Standards for Frontier AI Models
Home Office Tightens Skilled Worker Visa Requirements and Dependent Rules
Ministry of Defence Restructures Royal Navy Frigate Procurement to Prevent Overruns
UK Government Mandates New Housing Targets to Address National Shortage
UK and Scottish Governments Reach Agreement on North Sea Energy Transition
NHS Launches Digital Overhaul to Reduce Surgical Backlogs in England
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates as Service Sector Inflation Persists
UK Chancellor Announces Fiscal Consolidation Measures to Stabilize National Debt
RNLI Chief Executive Condemns Misinformation and Abuse Targeting Volunteer Crews
Metropolitan Police Charge Swindon Man with Assisting Foreign Intelligence Services
British Intelligence Report Warns Environmental Collapse Threatens Global Defense Infrastructure
Conservative Party Rejects New Taxes to Fund UK Social Care Reforms
Labour Government Signals Intent to Ease Residency Restrictions for Foreign Care Workers
Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Støre Meet to Strengthen North Atlantic Defense
UK Government Plans to Revive Equity Loan Scheme to Assist First-Time Home Buyers
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Pledges Radical Reform for UK Utilities and Social Care
UK Treasury Prepares Difficult Autumn Budget Amid High Debt and Energy Volatility
Civil Aviation Authority Launches Review of Air Traffic Systems Following Digital Failure
X Reports First Increase in UK Revenues Following Advertiser Boycott
Shetland Islands Council Approves £400 Million Inter-Island Tunnel Project
Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband Warns Iran Against Hostile Activities on British Soil
×