London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Sep 02, 2026

Financial chiefs attending Starmer speech is significant - they can see which way the wind is blowing

Financial chiefs attending Starmer speech is significant - they can see which way the wind is blowing

The head of the CBI, leading chief executives and other prominent economists (including, via videolink, former Bank of England governor Mark Carney) all turned up - they did so because in much the same way as their predecessors did in 2009, they can see which way the wind is blowing.

Let's get the policy stuff out of the way first.

Labour has an economic growth target.

They want to achieve the highest sustainable growth per head rate of the seven major industrialised economies. They say that unless we do something to change the path of British economic growth we will end up poorer than Poland by 2030.

That last fact, one reiterated by Sir Keir Starmer today, probably sounds quite horrifying, but it's not quite what it seems.

Not that it's incorrect: it's certainly borne out by the numbers.

As of 2021, the UK's gross domestic product per capita was just under $45,000 (£37,000).

That compares to just under $35,000 (£29,000) in Poland (the numbers here are adjusted to account for how far your money goes in each country, something called purchasing power parity).

Extrapolate the growth rates from the past decade forward (the UK's is low at 0.7%, Poland's is high at 3.4%) and by 2030 Poland's GDP per capita is $48,000 (£40,000) and the UK's is $47,700 (£39,700).

But the UK is hardly an outlier. On the basis of this thought experiment, Poland would also be richer, in GDP per capita terms, than Japan, France and Italy by 2030.

It rather underlines the point that while the UK's recent economic performance is certainly poor, it is far from an outlier. And that these statistical thought experiments only go so far.

Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of England, watches via videolink as Sir Keir Starmer (second right) details his party's growth mission


Consider: let's imagine that the UK had gone far beyond Labour's new economic pledge in recent years.

Let's imagine it had matched the strongest GDP per capita growth in the group of seven industrialised economies (UK, US, Japan, Canada, Italy, France, Germany) not just for two successive years (as the small print to this new pledge says) but for ten successive years.

That would be a massive achievement.

Britain has only had the strongest GDP per capita growth rate for a handful of years going back recent decades. But here's the thing: even if you extrapolated this stronger growth rate (2% on average over the past decade) forward, things would still look a bit depressing vis-à-vis Poland. Our imaginary fastest-in-the-G7 UK would still be overtaken by Poland by 2037.

Anyway, tearing too deep into statistical nuggets like these invariably ends with a reductio ad absurdum.

Nor is there much point in getting too het up about the fact that Labour has yet to provide much detail on how it will actually achieve this very ambitious goal (it hasn't). No one would expect the opposition to provide detailed, solid manifesto pledges quite so far from the next election.

Perhaps the most interesting dimension of today's economic event is something else: the vibe.

I can remember how, in 2009 and early 2010, something shifted in the political landscape.

The Labour Party were on the way out and the Tories were on the way in, and all of a sudden you started to spot the great and the good at Conservative events.

Today felt similar.

The head of the Confederation of British Industry, leading chief executives and other prominent economists (including, via videolink, former Bank of England governor Mark Carney) all turned up for a Labour event.

They did so because in much the same way as their predecessors did in 2009, they can see which way the wind is blowing. They aren't bothered about pledges like the one about economic growth.

They care about the fact that these people may soon be in government.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Business Confidence Improves but Remains Deeply Negative
Aberdeen Hydrogen Bus Sale Recovers Just Six Pence for Every Pound Invested
Which? Exposes Booking.com Verification Failures With Fake 10 Downing Street Listing
British Business Bank Invests Up to £46 Million in Deep-Tech Startup Fund
Scottish Government Puts Violence Against Women at Center of Legislative Program
FCA Eases UK IPO Rules to Strengthen London’s Listing Market
UK Likely to Avoid Next US Tariff Measures as Washington Targets EU
Macron Visits UK for Bayeux Tapestry Exhibition and Border Security Talks
British Chambers of Commerce Cuts UK Growth Outlook to 1% for 2026 and 2027
Keir Starmer Resigns as MP for Holborn and St Pancras, Triggering By-Election
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Unveils Devolution and Cost-of-Living Agenda
UK Borrowing Costs Surge as 30-Year Gilt Yield Reaches 5.88%
Cleveland Police Receive £2 Million to Tackle Serious Crime in Middlesbrough
Number of Young People in England Without a Close Friend Reaches Record Level
Five Arrested After Newborn Baby Dies From Stab Wounds in Sheffield
Nigel Farage Faces Questions Over Reported Second Parliamentary Standards Investigation
UK Retirement Funding Requirement Rises by £64,000 Compared With 2021
UK House Prices Rise for First Time Since April, Nationwide Says
FCA Chief Faces Allegations of Intimidating Consumer Group Over £9 Billion Car Loan Inquiry
Scottish Government Presses Ahead With Cap on Essential Food Prices
Burnham Government Moves to Overhaul Early Prison Release Scheme
UK Records Hottest Summer on Record in 2026, Met Office Says
UK Government Announces Major Reset of Diplomatic Policy Towards Israel
UK Pushes Back After Trump Reopens Falkland Islands Sovereignty Dispute
Keir Starmer Resigns as MP, Triggering Holborn and St Pancras By-Election
Andy Burnham Blames Brexit for UK’s Decade of Weak Growth in First Commons Address
England Faces Renewed Scrutiny Over Sewage Discharges and Water Quality
Victoria Beckham Business Reports First Operating Profit Since Launch
BT Expects £2 Billion From Copper Sales During Full-Fibre Rollout
UK Train Drivers Secure 3.6% Pay Rise and Avert Strike Action
FCA Chief Faces Scrutiny Over Alleged Pressure on Consumer Group in Car Finance Case
Kemi Badenoch Names Andrew Griffith Shadow Chancellor in Conservative Reshuffle
UK House Prices Rise for First Time Since April
UK Shop-Price Inflation Accelerates to 1.5% in August
Met Office Data Point to Hottest UK Summer on Record
UK Announces Emergency Prison Release Measures and £110 Million Capacity Expansion
UK Launches Expanded Free School Meals and 1,400 Breakfast Clubs
Bank of England Governor Warns G20 of AI-Related Economic and Cyber Risks
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Calls for Greater Public Control of Water, Energy and Transport
UK Gains Full Access to £13 Trillion Trans-Pacific Trade Bloc
UK Long-Term Borrowing Costs Hit 28-Year High as Oil Shock Drives Global Bond Selloff
Royal Mail Keeps First-Class Stamps at £1.80 and Second-Class at 91p
Church of England Prepares Formal Apology Over Historical Forced Adoptions
UK Competition Regulator Caps Veterinary Prescription Fees at £21
UK Aviation Authorities Roll Out Airspace Changes to Reduce Flight Delays
England Makes School Allergy Policies Mandatory Under Benedict’s Law
England and Wales Tighten Child Safeguarding Checks by Removing Supervision Exemption
Cornwall Geothermal Plant Begins Commercial Power and Lithium Operations
UK Inflation Holds Near 2.9% as Energy Costs Remain a Risk
UK Productivity Growth Averages 1.1% Over Two Years, Resolution Foundation Says
×