London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Apr 10, 2026

Financial chiefs attending Starmer speech is significant - they can see which way the wind is blowing

Financial chiefs attending Starmer speech is significant - they can see which way the wind is blowing

The head of the CBI, leading chief executives and other prominent economists (including, via videolink, former Bank of England governor Mark Carney) all turned up - they did so because in much the same way as their predecessors did in 2009, they can see which way the wind is blowing.

Let's get the policy stuff out of the way first.

Labour has an economic growth target.

They want to achieve the highest sustainable growth per head rate of the seven major industrialised economies. They say that unless we do something to change the path of British economic growth we will end up poorer than Poland by 2030.

That last fact, one reiterated by Sir Keir Starmer today, probably sounds quite horrifying, but it's not quite what it seems.

Not that it's incorrect: it's certainly borne out by the numbers.

As of 2021, the UK's gross domestic product per capita was just under $45,000 (£37,000).

That compares to just under $35,000 (£29,000) in Poland (the numbers here are adjusted to account for how far your money goes in each country, something called purchasing power parity).

Extrapolate the growth rates from the past decade forward (the UK's is low at 0.7%, Poland's is high at 3.4%) and by 2030 Poland's GDP per capita is $48,000 (£40,000) and the UK's is $47,700 (£39,700).

But the UK is hardly an outlier. On the basis of this thought experiment, Poland would also be richer, in GDP per capita terms, than Japan, France and Italy by 2030.

It rather underlines the point that while the UK's recent economic performance is certainly poor, it is far from an outlier. And that these statistical thought experiments only go so far.

Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of England, watches via videolink as Sir Keir Starmer (second right) details his party's growth mission


Consider: let's imagine that the UK had gone far beyond Labour's new economic pledge in recent years.

Let's imagine it had matched the strongest GDP per capita growth in the group of seven industrialised economies (UK, US, Japan, Canada, Italy, France, Germany) not just for two successive years (as the small print to this new pledge says) but for ten successive years.

That would be a massive achievement.

Britain has only had the strongest GDP per capita growth rate for a handful of years going back recent decades. But here's the thing: even if you extrapolated this stronger growth rate (2% on average over the past decade) forward, things would still look a bit depressing vis-à-vis Poland. Our imaginary fastest-in-the-G7 UK would still be overtaken by Poland by 2037.

Anyway, tearing too deep into statistical nuggets like these invariably ends with a reductio ad absurdum.

Nor is there much point in getting too het up about the fact that Labour has yet to provide much detail on how it will actually achieve this very ambitious goal (it hasn't). No one would expect the opposition to provide detailed, solid manifesto pledges quite so far from the next election.

Perhaps the most interesting dimension of today's economic event is something else: the vibe.

I can remember how, in 2009 and early 2010, something shifted in the political landscape.

The Labour Party were on the way out and the Tories were on the way in, and all of a sudden you started to spot the great and the good at Conservative events.

Today felt similar.

The head of the Confederation of British Industry, leading chief executives and other prominent economists (including, via videolink, former Bank of England governor Mark Carney) all turned up for a Labour event.

They did so because in much the same way as their predecessors did in 2009, they can see which way the wind is blowing. They aren't bothered about pledges like the one about economic growth.

They care about the fact that these people may soon be in government.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Foreign Secretary Highlights Impact of Intensified Strikes in Lebanon
UK Urges Inclusion of Lebanon in US-Iran Ceasefire Framework
UK Stocks Ease as Ceasefire Doubts in Middle East Weigh on Investor Confidence
UK Reassesses Cloud Strategy Amid Criticism Over Limited Support Measures
UK Calls for Full and Toll-Free Access Through Strait of Hormuz Amid Rising Tensions
Starmer Signals Strategic Shift for Britain Amid Escalating Iran-Linked Tensions
UK Issues Firm Warning to Russia Over Covert Underwater Military Activity
OpenAI Halts Stargate UK Project, Casting Uncertainty Over Britain’s AI Expansion Plans
Starmer Voices Frustration Over Global Pressures Driving UK Energy Costs Higher
UK Deploys Military Assets to Protect Undersea Cables From Suspected Russian Threat
Canada Aligns With US, UK and Australia as Europe Prepares Major Digital Border Overhaul
Meghan Markle’s Planned Australia Appearance Sparks Fresh Speculation
Starmer Warns Sustained Effort Needed to Ensure US–Iran Ceasefire Holds
UK to Partner with Shipping Industry to Rebuild Confidence in Strait of Hormuz, Cooper Says
UK Interest Rate Expectations Ease Following US–Iran Ceasefire Agreement
Starmer Signals Major Effort Needed to Fully Reopen Strait of Hormuz During Gulf Visit
UK Fuel Prices Face Ongoing Volatility Amid Global Pressures and Domestic Factors
Kanye West’s Planned Italy Festival Appearance Draws Debate After UK Entry Ban
Smuggling Routes Shift Toward Belgium as Migrant Crossings to UK Evolve
Ceasefire Offers Potential Relief for UK Fuel and Food Prices Amid Ongoing Uncertainty
Iran Conflict Raises Questions Over UK’s Global Influence and Military Preparedness
Senator McConnell Visits Kentucky to Highlight Federal Investment in Local Projects
Kanye West Barred from Entering UK as Legal Grounds Come into Focus
UK Denies Visa to Kanye West After Sponsors Withdraw from Wireless Festival
Trump-Era Forest Service Restructuring Leads to Closure of UK Lab Focused on Kentucky Woodland Health
Foreign Students in the UK Describe Harsh Living Conditions and Financial Pressures
Reform UK Proposes Visa Restrictions on Nations Pursuing Reparations Claims
Public Reaction Divides Over UK Decision to Bar Kanye West
Calls Grow for UK to Review US Base Access Following Concerns Over Escalating Rhetoric
UK Indicates It Will Not Permit Use of Its Bases for Potential US Strikes on Iran’s Energy Infrastructure
UK Prime Minister Defends Decision to Bar Kanye West, Questions Festival Booking
UK Accelerates Efforts to Harmonise Medical Technology Rules with United States
Wireless Festival Cancelled After Kanye West Denied Entry to the United Kingdom
Australia’s most decorated living soldier was arrested at Sydney Airport and charged with five counts of war-crime murder for the killing of unarmed Afghan civilians
The CIA’s Secret Technology That Can Find You by Your Heartbeat Successfully Locates Downed Airman
Operation Europe: Trump Deploys Vance to Hungary to Save the EU
King Charles Faces Criticism From Some UK Christians Over Absence of Easter Message
Former UK Defence Secretary Raises Concerns Over Ability to Counter Iran Missile Threat
UK Signals Non-Involvement in Iran Conflict as Trump Reasserts Firm Deterrence Stance
US and UK Strengthen Medical Device Cooperation Following Tariff Removal
Trump Backs Steve Hilton for California Governor, Highlighting Reform Agenda
UK Seeks Closer Ties With Anthropic as AI Policy Divergence Emerges Across Atlantic
Experts Warn of Evolving Extremism After Teens Arrested in UK Ambulance Arson Case
UK Convenes Talks to Safeguard Shipping Through Strait of Hormuz After Conflict Escalation
Trump Highlights Strong Leadership in Critique of UK Stance on Iran
UK Authorities Review Kanye West’s Entry Status Following Festival Backlash
UK Considers Deploying Aircraft Carrier for US Independence Day Celebrations Amid Renewed Transatlantic Focus
United Kingdom Moves to Attract AI Firm Anthropic Amid Tensions with US Defense Officials
RAF Intercepts Iranian Drones in Middle East to Defend Allied Security Interests
Labour Signals Shift on Foie Gras and Fur Restrictions to Advance EU Trade Talks
×