London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026

Explainer: UK inflation nears 30-year high, but how fast will it fall back?

Explainer: UK inflation nears 30-year high, but how fast will it fall back?

British consumer price inflation looks set to hit a 30-year high of 6% or more in April, but the big question for the Bank of England and the wider public is how quickly it will then fall back.

The BoE last month became the world's first major central bank to raise interest rates since the coronavirus pandemic hammered the global economy.

Now investors are betting on as many as four more rate hikes in 2022, taking Bank Rate as high as 1.25%, because the rise in prices in Britain - as in many other rich economies - looks set to be less transitory than previously hoped.

The inflation peak will hit the spending power of consumers just as they face a tax hike in April, challenging Britain's economic recovery from its coronavirus crash of 2020.

Bethany Beckett, an economist with Capital Economics, said household disposable income will fall in real terms this year, contributing to a slowdown in economic growth to 3.7% in 2022. The BoE in November predicted 5.0% growth this year.

HOW LONG IS INFLATION LIKELY TO STAY HIGH?


The BoE's current forecasts, published in November, point to consumer price inflation of 3.5% in 2022 before a fall to 2.25% in 2023, close to the BoE's 2% target.

Then, after gas prices rose further, the central bank said in December it had raised its estimate for the peak in inflation to about 6% in April.

That means the BoE is likely to push up its full-year inflation forecasts again on Feb. 3, alongside what many investors think will be another rise in Bank Rate to 0.5%.

Households face a sharp increase of about 50% in their gas bills - or a bit less if the government moves to lessen the hit - in April, when a regulated price cap is due to be increased.

Paul Dales, chief UK economist at consultancy Capital Economics, has almost doubled his inflation forecast for 2022 as a whole to 4.0% from a previous estimate of 2.2%.

WHAT IS GOING ON WITH GAS PRICES?


After their surge, gas prices have fallen recently.

Britain is set to receive a record number of liquefied natural gas cargoes this month, helping to bring the day-ahead natural gas price down from a peak of more than 450 pence a therm in late December down to about 200 pence last week, although that was still much higher than its level of about 50 pence a year ago.

Philip Shaw, an economist with bank Investec, said inflation in 2022 could end up at 2.5% if the recent fall in gas prices continues and leads to a cut in tariffs at a twice-yearly review by regulators due in October.

WHAT ELSE IS DRIVING UK INFLATION?


As well as the usual variables, from petrol prices to the impact of weather of food costs, another key factor for inflation this year is what happens to global supply chains, which were hit hard by the pandemic.

This has been seen most starkly in the car market, where a shortage of microchips has curtailed production of new cars, pushing the price of second-hand models up by 27%.

However, a survey of purchasing managers at British manufacturers last month showed an easing of prices paid for inputs from near record highs.

But analysts are watching for the impact of the Omicron variant in China where a strict approach to stamping out coronavirus outbreaks led to the shutdown of suppliers vital for global manufacturers in 2020, pushing up prices.

IS A WAGE-INFLATION SPIRAL LIKELY?


The BoE's main concern is not so much about what inflation does in the coming months but whether it triggers longer-term inflationary pressures, principally in wage settlements.

Some companies have responded to a post-Brexit, post-COVID shortage of workers by pushing up pay for some roles.

Food retailer Gregg's (GRG.L) this month brought forward a pay rise for its staff.

A survey of manufacturers showed recent pay increases ranged between 2% and 3% but went as high as 14% in some cases, while 45% of firms had yet to agree a pay deal as they awaited more clarity on inflation and other factors.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
United Kingdom Finance Monthly Review Highlights Rising Long-Term Borrowing Costs and Persistent Energy Price Pressures Across British Markets
Royal Marines Pioneer Rapid Autonomous Drone Operations During Major High North Exercise Involving NATO Allies
House of Commons Justice Committee Urges Chancellor to Align Prison and Courts Reform Ambitions With Concrete Budgetary Resources
Government Investigates Rapid Artificial Intelligence Datacentre Expansion Strategy Following Scrutiny Over Power Grid Demands and Planning Backlogs
His Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary Warns Third-Party Supplier Breaches Threaten United Kingdom Police and Fire Service Data
Number of British Businesses in Financial Distress Reaches Highest Level in Two Decades Ahead of Fiscal Announcement
Chancellor John Healey Prepares Autumn Budget Amid Intense Market Scrutiny Over Fiscal Headroom and Spending Pressures
Education or Indoctrination? The Growing Debate Over Religious Participation in British Schools
Germany's Vanishing Shopfronts: The Silent Collapse of the Businesses That Built Its Cities
Northern Ireland Executive Reaches Agreement on Public Transport Modernization and Cross-Border Rail Infrastructure Funding
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero Approves New North Sea Carbon Capture and Storage Industrial Clusters
Office for National Statistics Reports Stabilization in Private Rental Growth Across Major English and Welsh Regional Cities
United Kingdom Automotive Manufacturing Output Rises Moderately as Electric Vehicle Assembly Lines Expand in the Midlands
Competition and Markets Authority Launches Formal Inquiry Into Cloud Computing Infrastructure and Artificial Intelligence Partnerships
Scottish Government Finalizes Emergency Budget Adjustments Following Multi-Year Public Sector Funding Shortfalls
National Health Service England Announces Major Emergency Care Overhaul to Alleviate Severe Winter Capacity Pressures
Chancellor Rachel Reeves Prepares Autumn Budget Amid Intensifying Scrutiny Over Public Spending and Fiscal Rules
Bank of England Signals Cautious Approach to Further Interest Rate Cuts as Persistent Wage Growth and Inflation Pressures Remain
Transport for London Unveils Expanded Zero-Emission Bus Fleet to Meet Capital Air Quality Targets
Higher Education Institutions Face Deepening Financial Strain Amid Declining International Student Enrolment
Automotive Industry Leaders Criticize Government Tax Policies and Urge Action on Retail Consumer Confidence
Environment Agency Issues Flood Alerts Across Scottish and English Waterways Following Heavy Rainfall
Independent Audit Highlights Persistent Security Vulnerabilities Across Legacy Government Digital Portals
Northern Ireland Political Leaders Clash Over Westminster Funding Allocations Ahead of Autumn Budget
Ethnic Minorities in England Face Significant Disparities in Routine Breast Cancer Diagnosis Rates
National Police Chiefs Report Alarming Surge in Domestic Abuse Cases Fuelled by Expanding Illegal Cocaine Market
Government Announces Two Hundred and Twenty Million Pound Pothole Funding Boost for Local Highway Authorities
China Issues Formal Warning Over Potential United Kingdom Restrictions on Chinese Electric Vehicles
British Defence Ministers Sign E5 Pact to Enhance European Military Capabilities and Industrial Cooperation Within NATO
United Kingdom Business Activity Expands at Fastest Pace in Eight Months According to S&P Global Flash Survey
Chancellor John Healey Prepares Major Devolution Package and Bank Profit Surcharge Ahead of Upcoming Autumn Budget
National Health Service Consultants in England Announce Two-Day Strike Action Scheduled for November
Major Clean-Up Under Way Across Britain Following Destruction Caused by Consecutive Storms Austen and Boelo
KEY TRENDS TO WATCH
Declassified Intelligence Files Reveal British Security Services Monitored National Health Service Founder
British Government Launches Sweeping Regulatory Crackdown on High-Risk Cosmetic Procedures
Scottish National Party Demands Ban on Using Scottish Revenues to Fund English Nuclear Energy Projects
Mayor of London Initiates Landmark Pedestrianisation of Oxford Street to Revitalise Global Retail Hub
British Judges Granted Expanded Legal Powers to Punish Convicted Killers Who Refuse to Attend Sentencing
United Kingdom Poised to Miss Reduced International Aid Spending Targets Ahead of Fiscal Review
Surging Cocaine Consumption Drives Record Drug Fatalities and Rising Crime Rates Across Britain
Department of Health and Social Care Announces One Hundred and Forty Million Pound Boost for Urgent Care
British Services Sector Records Strongest Growth in Eight Months Despite Broader Economic Uncertainty
United Kingdom Retail Sales Suffer Unexpected Decline as Consumer Confidence Plummets
Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham Urges National Debate on Restoring European Union Free Movement
Deep Cabinet Divisions Emerge Over Controversial Approval of North Sea Fossil Fuel Projects
United Kingdom Government Urges Citizens to Stockpile Essential Supplies in National Resilience Pivot
Storm Boelo Kills Two People and Cuts Power to Tens of Thousands Across Great Britain
Critical Software Flaw Forces Dozens of United Kingdom Government Services Offline Amid Mass Security Warnings
UK Consumer Confidence Tumbles Amid Rising Energy Costs and Global Commodity Price Pressures
×