London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Aug 25, 2025

EU export ban would delay UK Covid vaccine drive by two months

EU export ban would delay UK Covid vaccine drive by two months

Exclusive: Halting distribution would hit Britain badly but not significantly help EU, analysis finds
Britain’s Covid vaccine programme faces a two-month delay in the event of an EU export ban, derailing the government’s plans to reopen the economy this summer, an analysis for the Guardian reveals.

A ban, due to be debated by leaders of the 27 EU member states on Thursday, would badly stall the UK vaccination effort, and would be likely to force the government to extend restrictions on people’s lives.

It would not, however, provide a significant boost to EU member states’ troubled programmes, according to a report by the data analytics company Airfinity.

The comparatively small number of doses that would be kept within the bloc would speed up the full vaccination of every adult in the EU by “just over a week”, the research suggests.

On Sunday, the defence secretary, Ben Wallace, said the EU’s reputation was at stake as the 27 heads of state and government prepare to make their decision, warning that “the world is watching”.

“If contracts get broken, and undertakings, that is a very damaging thing to happen for a trading bloc that prides itself on the rule of law,” he told Sky News. “It is counterproductive because the one thing we know about vaccine production and manufacture is that it is collaborative.

“They would undermine not only their own citizens’ chances of having a proper vaccine programme, but also many other countries around the world, with the reputational damage for the EU which they would find very hard to change over the short term.”

The European commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said last week that the EU was considering “all options” and ready to introduce emergency controls on vaccine production and distribution to deal with the “crisis of the century”.

The 27 heads of state and government will discuss the next steps on Thursday via video conference, amid growing concerns over a third wave of coronavirus infections on the continent. Plans to meet in person were cancelled on Sunday in light of a rise in infections.

France and Germany have privately spoken in support of activating article 122 of the EU’s treaty, last used in the 1970s oil crisis, allowing the bloc to take emergency measures to control the distribution of essential goods.

The EU commissioner for financial services, Mairead McGuinness, said on Sunday: “European citizens are growing angry and upset at the fact that the vaccine rollout has not happened as rapidly as we had anticipated.”

The EU member states had administered 10.4 vaccine doses per 100 people as of Saturday, compared with the 42.7 jabs administered per 100 in the UK.

About 10m vaccine doses have been exported from plants in EU member states to the UK, largely by Pfizer/BioNTech. The UK is waiting on around 30m more Pfizer doses and 30m from Johnson & Johnson – although only some of those had been expected to be delivered by the end of the summer.

The UK government was until the last fortnight on course to beat its target of delivering a first vaccine dose to every adult in the UK by the end of July by over six weeks, according to Airfinity.

A recent supply problem with AstraZeneca’s facility in India is expected to set back the pace of vaccination by two weeks, from 10 June to 23 June.

But the imposition of an export ban on doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine produced in Belgium and Germany, by far the largest export to the UK, would delay every adult receiving a first jab until 5 August, according to Airfinity.

A ban on all exports of vaccines due for distribution, including those from Moderna and Johnson & Johnson, would delay reaching that target to 27 August, the analysis commissioned by the Guardian further suggests.

Rasmus Bech Hansen, the chief executive of Airfinity, said: “Export bans are a lose-lose situation and threaten the global production scale-up.

“The imposition of a ban would mean the EU has marginally more doses short-term, but it won’t fundamentally change its vaccine availability, and the EU could soon be dependent on vaccine imports.

“A ban poses a significant risk for the UK and any potential UK retaliation on sub-ingredients would harm not only the EU and UK but the world, as it will significantly slow overall production.”

Airfinity’s estimate is based on how long it would take the UK to give at least one dose to 75% of its population, equivalent to an uptake of more than 95% of adults.

The EU has set itself the goal of fully vaccinating 70% of the population by the end of the summer.

According to Airfinity, the EU is on target for full vaccination of 75% of the population by 31 August despite its current difficulties, including the lack of supply from AstraZeneca.

Their analysis suggests that should the EU “keep and use the doses meant for the UK it would only bring them forward by just over a week [19 August], as their collective population is much greater”.

The commission and its member state governments have been enraged by the failure of AstraZeneca to deliver the promised 120m doses of its vaccine this quarter while it has continued to fulfil its contractual obligations with the UK government.

The company has pointed to the upfront funding provided for its collaboration with Oxford University by the UK government, and its company policy of creating bespoke supply chains for the EU and the UK.

AstraZeneca exports very few doses from EU plants to the UK but the commission is taking a keen interest in jabs and components made in the company’s Dutch facility. Sources have suggested that the commission could, in the first instance, act to block exports from there if a request is made.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Vietnam Evacuates Hundreds of Thousands as Typhoon Kajiki Strikes; China’s Sanya Shuts Down
UK Government Delays Decision on China’s Proposed London Embassy Amid Concerns Over Redacted Plans
A 150-Year Tradition to Be Abolished? Uproar Over the Popular Central Park Attraction
A new faith called Robotheism claims artificial intelligence isn’t just smart but actually God itself
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner Purchases Third Property Amid Housing Tax Reforms Debate
HSBC Switzerland Ends Relationships with Over 1,000 Clients from Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Qatar, and Egypt
Sharia Law Made Legally Binding in Austria Despite Warnings Over 'Incompatible' Values
Italian Facebook Group Sharing Intimate Images Without Consent Shut Down Amid Police Investigation
Dutch Foreign Minister Resigns Amid Deadlock Over Israel Sanctions
Trump and Allies Send Messages of Support to Ukraine on Independence Day Amid Ongoing Conflict
China Reels as Telegram Chat Group Shares Hidden-Camera Footage of Women and Children
Sam Nicoresti becomes first transgender comedian to win Edinburgh Comedy Award
Builders uncover historic human remains in Lancashire house renovation
Australia Wants to Tax Your Empty Bedrooms
MotoGP Cameraman Narrowly Avoids Pedro Acosta Crash at Hungarian Grand Prix
FBI Investigates John Bolton Over Classified Documents in High-Profile Raids
Report reveals OpenAI pitched national ChatGPT Plus subscription to UK ministers
Labour set to freeze income tax thresholds in long-term 'stealth' tax raid
Coca‑Cola explores sale of Costa coffee chain
Trial hears dog walker was chased and fatally stabbed by trio
Restaurateur resigns from government hospitality council over tax criticism
Spanish City funfair shut after serious ride injury
Suspected arson at Ilford restaurant leaves three in critical condition
Tottenham beat Manchester City to go top of Premier League
Bank holiday heatwave to hit 30°C before remnants of Hurricane Erin arrive
UK to deploy immigration advisers to West Africa to block fake visas
Nurse who raped woman continued working for a year despite police alert
Drought forces closures of England’s canal routes, canceling boat holidays
Sweet tooth scents: food-inspired perfumes surge as weight-loss drugs suppress appetites
Experts warn Britain dangerously reliant on imported food
Family of Notting Hill Carnival murder victim call event unmanageable
Bunkers, Billions and Apocalypse: The Secret Compounds of Zuckerberg and the Tech Giants
Ukraine Declares De Facto War on Hungary and Slovakia with Terror Drone Strikes on Their Gas Lifeline
Animated K-pop Musical ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ Becomes Netflix’s Most-Watched Original Animated Film
New York Appeals Court Voids Nearly $500 Million Civil Fraud Penalty Against Trump While Upholding Fraud Liability
Elon Musk tweeted, “Europe is dying”
Far-Right Activist Convicted of Incitement Changes Gender and Demands: "Send Me to a Women’s Prison" | The Storm in Germany
Hungary Criticizes Ukraine: "Violating Our Sovereignty"
Will this be the first country to return to negative interest rates?
Child-free hotels spark controversy
North Korea is where this 95-year-old wants to die. South Korea won’t let him go. Is this our ally or a human rights enemy?
Hong Kong Launches Regulatory Regime and Trials for HKD-Backed Stablecoins
China rehearses September 3 Victory Day parade as imagery points to ‘loyal wingman’ FH-97 family presence
Trump Called Viktor Orbán: "Why Are You Using the Veto"
Horror in the Skies: Plane Engine Exploded, Passengers Sent Farewell Messages
MSNBC Rebrands as MS NOW Amid Comcast’s Cable Spin-Off
AI in Policing: Draft One Helps Speed Up Reports but Raises Legal and Ethical Concerns
Shame in Norway: Crown Princess’s Son Accused of Four Rapes
Apple Begins Simultaneous iPhone 17 Production in India and China
A Robot to Give Birth: The Chinese Announcement That Shakes the World
×