London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Jul 21, 2025

Why is the UK economy lagging behind the US, Germany and others?

Why is the UK economy lagging behind the US, Germany and others?

The UK economy is struggling - and people are feeling it in their pockets, as wages fail to keep up with rising prices.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts the UK economy will shrink this year while every other major economy will grow.

The Bank of England also forecasts a recession in the UK in 2023 - albeit one that is shorter and less severe than previously forecast.

Perhaps it's not surprising the outlook is bleak given the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and soaring costs of both energy and food.

But why is the UK seemingly faring worse than other rich countries such as the US, Germany and France?


Is the UK really lagging behind?


Forecasts are never perfect. There are so many factors that affect economic growth - from geopolitics to the weather - that, inevitably, predictions often miss the mark. But they can point in the right direction.

And the existing evidence shows other countries have taken less of a hit from the huge challenges of recent years than the UK has.

Figures from the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which looks at how rich countries are performing, show the UK economy fell further than others in the first months of the pandemic.

The UK's pace of recovery was fast once the economy reopened - but not fast enough to make up the lost ground.


But the difference between the UK and others may not be quite as big as it appears.

That's because most countries measure the output of their public services, such as health and education, based on the costs - a nurse's wage, for example. In the UK they are accounted for differently, by valuing the services delivered - such as operations in hospital.

As a result, the UK's figures better reflect the impact of closed schools and cancelled operations during Covid, as well as disruption due to strikes.

The bigger picture, however, remains: the Bank of England and the IMF both expect the UK economy to shrink this year, while other G7 countries are expected to grow.


Some observers, including pro-Brexit economist Julian Jessop, believe the IMF was overly gloomy about the UK's prospects and that the differences under discussion - a percentage point here or there - are small.

Nevertheless, he says, there is still definitely "something to explain" about the UK's flagging economic performance.


Is it all down to Brexit?


Estimates about the cost of Brexit vary - according to a report by Bloomberg it is costing the UK economy roughly £100bn a year, and the economy is 4% smaller than it might have been if the UK had stayed in the EU.

"The EU is a very rich part of the world," says Carl Emmerson, deputy director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, an independent think tank. "And we've chosen, for better or worse, to make trade with that grouping of countries a lot more difficult, so it's clearly going to be something that makes it harder for the UK economy to grow."

Business investment has stagnated since the referendum vote in 2016 too, he says - another "drag on growth". A Bank of England policymaker has said that Brexit hit UK investment to the tune of £29bn.

EU workers used to come freely to work in the UK but can no longer do so, making it hard for the hospitality, agriculture, and care sectors to find enough staff.

Julian Jessop is a fellow at the free market think tank the Institute of Economic Affairs and describes himself as a "Brexit optimist". He believes there are big potential gains from leaving the EU, but agrees there have been short-term economic costs.

"We're still in a sort of transition phase, where the negatives are dominating," he says.

But he says those negatives are "smaller than people have been arguing" and "more likely to be temporary, because a lot of them have to do with uncertainty and the process of adjustment".


What else is affecting the economy?


Energy costs

Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent global energy prices soaring - but the impact varies between countries.

The US has its own domestic sources of fossil fuels and some European countries have more alternative sources of energy, Mr Emmerson says. France, for example, has a large nuclear network, and Norway has significant hydropower.

"Britain is pretty exposed," he says.

Moreover, the way the UK prices electricity is based on the cost of gas, the most expensive form of electricity generation. That has pushed up bills across the economy and made inflation worse, Mr Jessop says.

Workforce shortages

Most economies saw their workforce shrink during the pandemic.

But again, the UK is an outlier, with numbers failing to bounce back after the crisis.


Economists are still trying to work out why. It seems it is not just down to having fewer EU workers.

Young people have opted to study rather than work, older people have retired early, and more people are receiving long-term sickness benefits.

There are signs the workforce is starting to grow again, which could help boost growth and tax revenues later this year.


Long-term problems


There are also more fundamental reasons behind the UK's weaker performance, suggests Cambridge University economist Diane Coyle.

While the economy has slowed since the financial crisis in 2008, the roots of the problems go back much further, she argues, with investment in decline since the 1990s.

That left the economy lacking the resilience to cope with the triple shocks of Covid, Brexit and the war in Ukraine.

"That's down to the long-term weaknesses, long-term under investment, in the private and the public sector, [and] degradation of public services and infrastructure, which are just essential if the economy is going to grow," she says.

For its part, the government says the UK economy is resilient.

Responding to figures showing that the UK narrowly avoided a recession in 2022, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the numbers showed "underlying resilience" - but added the country was "not out of the woods".

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Man Dies After Being Pulled Into MRI Machine Due to Metal Chain in New York Clinic
NVIDIA Achieves $4 Trillion Valuation Amid AI Demand
US Revokes Visas of Brazilian Corrupted Judges Amid Fake Bolsonaro Investigation
U.S. Congress Approves Rescissions Act Cutting Federal Funding for NPR and PBS
North Korea Restricts Foreign Tourist Access to New Seaside Resort
Brazil's Supreme Court Imposes Radical Restrictions on Former President Bolsonaro
Centrist Criticism of von der Leyen Resurfaces as she Survives EU Confidence Vote
Judge Criticizes DOJ Over Secrecy in Dropping Charges Against Gang Leader
Apple Closes $16.5 Billion Tax Dispute With Ireland
Von der Leyen Faces Setback Over €2 Trillion EU Budget Proposal
UK and Germany Collaborate on Global Military Equipment Sales
Trump Plans Over 10% Tariffs on African and Caribbean Nations
Flying Taxi CEO Reclaims Billionaire Status After Stock Surge
Epstein Files Deepen Republican Party Divide
Zuckerberg Faces $8 Billion Privacy Lawsuit From Meta Shareholders
FIFA Pressured to Rethink World Cup Calendar Due to Climate Change
SpaceX Nears $400 Billion Valuation With New Share Sale
Microsoft, US Lab to Use AI for Faster Nuclear Plant Licensing
Trump Walks Back Talk of Firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell
Zelensky Reshuffles Cabinet to Win Support at Home and in Washington
"Can You Hit Moscow?" Trump Asked Zelensky To Make Putin "Feel The Pain"
Irish Tech Worker Detained 100 days by US Authorities for Overstaying Visa
Dimon Warns on Fed Independence as Trump Administration Eyes Powell’s Succession
Church of England Removes 1991 Sexuality Guidelines from Clergy Selection
Superman Franchise Achieves Success with Latest Release
Hungary's Viktor Orban Rejects Agreements on Illegal Migration
Jeff Bezos Considers Purchasing Condé Nast as a Wedding Gift
Ghislaine Maxwell Says She’s Ready to Testify Before Congress on Epstein’s Criminal Empire
Bal des Pompiers: A Celebration of Community and Firefighter Culture in France
FBI Chief Kash Patel Denies Resignation Speculations Amid Epstein List Controversy
Air India Pilot’s Mental Health Records Under Scrutiny
Google Secures Windsurf AI Coding Team in $2.4 Billion Licence Deal
Jamie Dimon Warns Europe Is Losing Global Competitiveness and Flags Market Complacency
South African Police Minister Suspended Amid Organised Crime Allegations
Nvidia CEO Claims Chinese Military Reluctance to Use US AI Technology
Hong Kong Advances Digital Asset Strategy to Address Economic Challenges
Australia Rules Out Pre‑commitment of Troops, Reinforces Defence Posture Amid US‑China Tensions
Martha Wells Says Humanity Still Far from True Artificial Intelligence
Nvidia Becomes World’s First Four‑Trillion‑Dollar Company Amid AI Boom
U.S. Resumes Deportations to Third Countries After Supreme Court Ruling
Excavation Begins at Site of Mass Grave for Children at Former Irish Institution
Iranian President Reportedly Injured During Israeli Strike on Secret Facility
EU Delays Retaliatory Tariffs Amid New U.S. Threats on Imports
Trump Defends Attorney General Pam Bondi Amid Epstein Memo Backlash
Renault Shares Drop as CEO Luca de Meo Announces Departure Amid Reports of Move to Kering
Senior Aides for King Charles and Prince Harry Hold Secret Peace Summit
Anti‑Semitism ‘Normalised’ in Middle‑Class Britain, Says Commission Co‑Chair
King Charles Meets David Beckham at Chelsea Flower Show
If the Department is Really About Justice: Ghislaine Maxwell Should Be Freed Now
NYC Candidate Zohran Mamdani’s ‘Antifada’ Remarks Spark National Debate on Political Language and Economic Policy
×