London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Jul 31, 2026

Covid: Virus cases show clear signs of fall in most of UK

Covid: Virus cases show clear signs of fall in most of UK

Levels of coronavirus are showing clear signs of coming down throughout most of the UK, more evidence suggests.

After at least a month of lockdown, figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggest positive tests are falling in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

The UK's reproduction or R number is estimated to be between 0.7 and 1.

Meanwhile, Downing Street confirmed all adults aged 50 and over should receive a coronavirus vaccine by May.

A spokesman said Prime Minister Boris Johnson would set out a "precise timeline" for vaccinations when he publishes the government's roadmap for lifting lockdown restrictions in England on 22 February.

Ministers had previously refused to discuss the date by which the over-50s would be offered a Covid jab.

Swab tests from people signed up to the Covid symptom app suggest cases are down 70% from their peak.

But experts warn that infection levels still remain high.

An estimated one in 65 people in both England and Northern Ireland had the virus, one in 70 in Wales and one in 115 in Scotland.

Cases fell in every UK nation apart from Wales where infections remained stable.

The ONS's data is slightly out of date - covering the week up to 30 January - so may not reflect the situation right now.


Similarly, the R number takes information from lots of different sources to provide a "consensus view of what the epidemic is doing", according to scientist advising government, Graham Medley.

But all of these different sources are slightly "behind the curve" because "we never observe the exact moment when somebody is infected but have to wait until they develop symptoms, get tested, go to hospital and die," he said.

Taken altogether, though, along with other sources like local authorities' reports of outbreaks in their areas, they give a good sense of roughly what's going on.

In theory the R number represents how many extra people each infected person gives the virus to.

But in reality, it is a calculation based on infections, hospitalisations and deaths, and is used to give a sense of whether the epidemic - including its impact on the health service - is broadly growing or shrinking.

Aside from the ONS, tother surveillance studies - where random samples of people are swabbed whether or not they have symptoms - also show cases coming down, starting somewhere around the second week of January.

The confirmed cases published on the government's daily dashboard should in theory be the most up to date, but they are skewed by who comes forward for testing.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Andy Burnham has Announces Plans to Redistribute Income Tax Revenue to English Mayors
Early-Release Scheme Faces Fresh Scrutiny as Reoffending and Prison Recalls Rise
Police Phone Checks Followed Report on Murder of MI5 Agent Inside Sinn Féin
Archbishop of Canterbury Reaffirms £100 Million Reparative Justice Fund During Ghana Visit
Drought Status Extended Across All of Wales as Heat and Dry Weather Deepen Environmental Strain
Record-Low Danube Exposes Probable Mammoth Remains in Bulgaria
UK Business Confidence Climbs to Four-Month High
Greater Manchester Gains Expanded Powers Under Regional Funding Reforms
UK Supreme Court to Hear Appeal Over Palestine Action Terror Ban
Shell's Quarterly Profit Doubles to Nearly $10 Billion on Higher Energy Prices
UK Government Removes VAT From Household Electricity Bills
Exceptional Drought Grips Half of England as Wildfire Threatens Sizewell
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates at 3.75% as Inflation Risks Persist
US Says It Has Carried Out Heavy Strikes on Iran After Attempted Attacks on Its Forces
The chief executive of the popular gaming company laid off many employees and his pay rose to 38 million dollars
UK Employment Holds Steady as Wage Growth Remains Moderate
England to Introduce Artificial Intelligence into Secondary School Curriculum
Wales Launches £1.2 Billion Industrial Regeneration Programme
High Court Upholds UK Digital Surveillance Framework
Northern Ireland Reaches Budget Agreement on Infrastructure and Public Sector Pay
Home Office Expands Digital Border Checks Nationwide
UK Approves Major North Sea Wind and Carbon Capture Project
The World's Most Terrifying Smartphone: Recording, Documenting, and Reporting to the Regime
Scotland Approves Major Renewable Energy Expansion
UK and United States Sign AI and Semiconductor Cooperation Pact
UK Treasury Tightens Fiscal Controls After Gilt Market Volatility
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates at 4.5%
UK Unveils £10 Billion NHS Funding Overhaul and Workforce Reform
The AI User Nightmare: Private Claude Conversations Leaked to the Internet
UK: Former Football Association Leaders Call for World Cup Boycott Over FIFA Privatization Plan
Forbidden Love: China severs millions from their virtual partners
Over 24 Hours in the Air: Qantas Airbus Completes Record-Breaking Test Flight
Prince Harry Faces Significant Legal Costs After Insurance Shortfall
FirstGroup Sells Rail Software Business to Tracsis for £48 Million
Victoria and Albert Museum Staff Vote for Strike Action
Norwegian Teenager Convicted Over Contract Killing Plot in Britain
Royal Mail Raises Bulk Mailing Prices by 30%
Immigration Remains Britain's Top Public Concern, Ipsos Survey Finds
Prime Minister Says Social Care Reform Must Precede Assisted Dying Legislation
Ofgem Proposes Steep Grid Connection Charges for New Data Centers
Major Cyberattack Compromises UK Education and Police Data
Government Reviews Jurisdiction Over Crimes Involving US Military Personnel
England Declares Widespread Drought After Record Dry July
UK Commits £8.4 Billion to Dreadnought Nuclear Submarine Program
Zuckerberg Opposes US Ban on Chinese AI Models and Warns of Regulatory Capture
Massive Wildfires Ravage Southern Europe: Fatalities in Greece and Evacuations Across France, Spain, and Turkey
NHS Leaders Warn Royal Mail Tariff Increases Will Raise Administrative Costs
Immigration Remains the Public's Top Concern in Britain, Ipsos Poll Finds
Britain Approves 16 New Grid Storage Projects to Strengthen Electricity Network
London-Listed Merger Activity Climbs Even as IPO Market Remains Weak
×