London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Jan 23, 2026

Covid: Virus cases show clear signs of fall in most of UK

Covid: Virus cases show clear signs of fall in most of UK

Levels of coronavirus are showing clear signs of coming down throughout most of the UK, more evidence suggests.

After at least a month of lockdown, figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggest positive tests are falling in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

The UK's reproduction or R number is estimated to be between 0.7 and 1.

Meanwhile, Downing Street confirmed all adults aged 50 and over should receive a coronavirus vaccine by May.

A spokesman said Prime Minister Boris Johnson would set out a "precise timeline" for vaccinations when he publishes the government's roadmap for lifting lockdown restrictions in England on 22 February.

Ministers had previously refused to discuss the date by which the over-50s would be offered a Covid jab.

Swab tests from people signed up to the Covid symptom app suggest cases are down 70% from their peak.

But experts warn that infection levels still remain high.

An estimated one in 65 people in both England and Northern Ireland had the virus, one in 70 in Wales and one in 115 in Scotland.

Cases fell in every UK nation apart from Wales where infections remained stable.

The ONS's data is slightly out of date - covering the week up to 30 January - so may not reflect the situation right now.


Similarly, the R number takes information from lots of different sources to provide a "consensus view of what the epidemic is doing", according to scientist advising government, Graham Medley.

But all of these different sources are slightly "behind the curve" because "we never observe the exact moment when somebody is infected but have to wait until they develop symptoms, get tested, go to hospital and die," he said.

Taken altogether, though, along with other sources like local authorities' reports of outbreaks in their areas, they give a good sense of roughly what's going on.

In theory the R number represents how many extra people each infected person gives the virus to.

But in reality, it is a calculation based on infections, hospitalisations and deaths, and is used to give a sense of whether the epidemic - including its impact on the health service - is broadly growing or shrinking.

Aside from the ONS, tother surveillance studies - where random samples of people are swabbed whether or not they have symptoms - also show cases coming down, starting somewhere around the second week of January.

The confirmed cases published on the government's daily dashboard should in theory be the most up to date, but they are skewed by who comes forward for testing.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Starmer Breaks Diplomatic Restraint With Firm Rebuke of Trump, Seizing Chance to Advocate for Europe
UK Finance Minister Reeves to Join Starmer on China Visit to Bolster Trade and Economic Ties
Prince Harry Says Sacrifices of NATO Forces in Afghanistan Deserve ‘Respect’ After Trump Remarks
Barron Trump Emerges as Key Remote Witness in UK Assault and Rape Trial
OpenAI’s Money Problem: Explosive Growth, Even Faster Costs, and a Race to Stay Ahead
Trump Reverses Course and Criticises UK-Mauritius Chagos Islands Agreement
Elizabeth Hurley Tells UK Court of ‘Brutal’ Invasion of Privacy in Phone Hacking Case
UK Bond Yields Climb as Report Fuels Speculation Over Andy Burnham’s Return to Parliament
America’s Venezuela Oil Grip Meets China’s Demand: Market Power, Legal Shockwaves, and the New Rules of Energy Leverage
TikTok’s U.S. Escape Plan: National Security Firewall or Political Theater With a Price Tag?
Trump’s Board of Peace: Breakthrough Diplomacy or a Hostile Takeover of Global Order?
Trump’s Board of Peace: Breakthrough Diplomacy or a Hostile Takeover of Global Order?
The Greenland Gambit: Economic Genius or Political Farce?
The Greenland Gambit: Economic Genius or Political Farce?
The Greenland Gambit: Economic Genius or Political Farce?
Will AI Finally Make Blue-Collar Workers Rich—or Is This Just Elite Tech Spin?
Prince William to Make Official Visit to Saudi Arabia in February
Prince Harry Breaks Down in London Court, Says UK Tabloids Have Made Meghan Markle’s Life ‘Absolute Misery’
Malin + Goetz UK Business Enters Administration, All Stores Close
EU and UK Reject Trump’s Greenland-Linked Tariff Threats and Pledge Unified Response
UK Deepfake Crackdown Puts Intense Pressure on Musk’s Grok AI After Surge in Non-Consensual Explicit Images
Prince Harry Becomes Emotional in London Court, Invokes Memory of Princess Diana in Testimony Against UK Tabloids
UK Inflation Rises Unexpectedly but Interest Rate Cuts Still Seen as Likely
AI vs Work: The Battle Over Who Controls the Future of Labor
Buying an Ally’s Territory: Strategic Genius or Geopolitical Breakdown?
AI Everywhere: Power, Money, War, and the Race to Control the Future
Trump vs the World Order: Disruption Genius or Global Arsonist?
Trump vs the World Order: Disruption Genius or Global Arsonist?
Trump vs the World Order: Disruption Genius or Global Arsonist?
Trump vs the World Order: Disruption Genius or Global Arsonist?
Arctic Power Grab: Security Chessboard or Climate Crime Scene?
Starmer Steps Back from Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’ Amid Strained US–UK Relations
Prince Harry’s Lawyer Tells UK Court Daily Mail Was Complicit in Unlawful Privacy Invasions
UK Government Approves China’s ‘Mega Embassy’ in London Amid Debate Over Security and Diplomacy
Trump Cites UK’s Chagos Islands Sovereignty Shift as Justification for Pursuing Greenland Acquisition
UK Government Weighs Australia-Style Social Media Ban for Under-Sixteens Amid Rising Concern Over Online Harm
Trump Aides Say U.S. Has Discussed Offering Asylum to British Jews Amid Growing Antisemitism Concerns
UK Seeks Diplomatic De-escalation with Trump Over Greenland Tariff Threat
Prince Harry Returns to London as High Court Trial Begins Over Alleged Illegal Tabloid Snooping
High-Speed Train Collision in Southern Spain Kills at Least Twenty-One and Injures Scores
Meghan Markle May Return to the U.K. This Summer as Security Review Advances
Trump’s Greenland Tariff Threat Sparks EU Response and Risks Deep Transatlantic Rift
Prince Harry’s High Court Battle With Daily Mail Publisher Begins in London
Trump’s Tariff Escalation Presents Complex Challenges for the UK Economy
UK Prime Minister Starmer Rebukes Trump’s Greenland Tariff Strategy as Transatlantic Tensions Rise
Prince Harry’s Last Press Case in UK Court Signals Potential Turning Point in Media and Royal Relations
OpenAI to Begin Advertising in ChatGPT in Strategic Shift to New Revenue Model
GDP Growth Remains the Most Telling Barometer of Britain’s Economic Health
Prince William and Kate Middleton Stay Away as Prince Harry Visits London Amid Lingering Rift
Britain Braces for Colder Weather and Snow Risk as Temperatures Set to Plunge
×