London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Sunday, Sep 14, 2025

Covid: Deaths in Wales 'above worst case scenario'

Covid: Deaths in Wales 'above worst case scenario'

The number of people in Wales dying with Covid-19 is above the worst case scenario, Welsh Government advisers have said.

The Swansea University projection has been exceeded in recent weeks, the Technical Advisory Group said.

It comes as ministers are considering whether new restrictions will be needed after Christmas to tackle rising cases.

However the Welsh Government has been accused of losing control and lacking a strategy by opposition parties.

Wales, which had a 17-day firebreak lockdown in October and November, saw its case rate overtake England's on 23 November.

But First Minister Mark Drakeford suggested further restrictions are unlikely before the festive period.

A controversial ban on alcohol sale in pubs and restaurants was brought in last Friday.

A report from TAG, the Welsh Government's scientific advisory body, said: "Wales has seen a greater increase in confirmed cases and mobility since the firebreak which suggests that hospital admissions and deaths may increase in the next 2-3 weeks depending on the age structure of cases."

It added: "Deaths are currently as high as May, with the excess death rate in Wales higher than in England and Scotland over recent weeks, and tracking above our reasonable worst case."

It is not clear what period of time the report, dated 2 December, is referring to.

Prior to the firebreak, it was projected under Swansea University's reasonable worse case scenario model that 6,000 people could die by March, but a new model had been commissioned which has not yet been published.

There were 218 deaths with Covid-19 in the latest weekly figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) - bringing the number of deaths in Wales to a total of 3,767.

Wales had a seven-day case rate of 267.8 per 100,000 people in the seven days up to 1 December, compared to 251.6 on 30 November.

The number of deaths per 100,000 people in the seven days to 1 December was 5.07, compared to 4.3 in England, 3.5 in Scotland and 3.3 in Northern Ireland.

On Monday Health Minister Vaughan Gething had said Wales was the only part of the UK not seeing falling cases at the end of November.



'A sting in the tail'


Latest figures from NHS Wales showed there were 82 people were being treated on invasive ventilated beds, including in critical care, for confirmed or suspected coronavirus on Monday - the highest since early May.

Dr Ami Jones, an intensive care unit consultant at Aneurin Bevan University Health Board in south-east Wales, said she was "very worried".

"Over half of my ITU has Covid patients now, there are wards and wards full of Covid patients.

"The problem is there is a sting in the tail. It takes a good 10 days, of someone catching Covid, getting poorly and needing hospital.

"So I see the numbers every day pop up on how many new tests there are, and I think 'God, in 10 days time that is going to hit us', and you know we are going to be in a position of speaking to a family over the phone and telling them: 'I'm really sorry I don't know if I can get your loved one through this'."



Of those in critical care with Covid, 22 were in Cwm Taf Morgannwg, 21 were in Swansea Bay, 12 in Aneurin Bevan, 11 in Cardiff and Vale, nine in Betsi Cadwaladr and seven in Hywel Dda.

The figures also show there were 30 more patients in critical care than the usual capacity.

Overall, there are 1,810 Covid patients in hospital, including record numbers recovering from the effects of the virus.

Patient numbers have risen in all areas apart from Cwm Taf Morgannwg. Aneurin Bevan has the most Covid patients, 542, 14% more than a week ago.

Meanwhile the chair of the Welsh Government's Covid-19 vaccine programme board said she was "very definitely" concerned there could be a third wave of the virus.

Dr Gill Richardson told BBC Radio Wales Breakfast: "We are all concerned.

"As we see cases rise, we know that the next thing that will happen will be hospital admissions and then ITU admissions and, of course, very sadly, deaths.

"So it is an appeal that while the vaccine is incredibly good news, we need to keep adhering to social distancing - hands, face, space."


Pubs have been stopped from selling alcohol in Wales


In the Senedd on Tuesday Mark Drakeford said the changes made last Friday needed to be given an "opportunity to make a difference".

"We need them to be accompanied by actions that people can take in their own lives to assist communities right across Wales to get this virus back - the numbers falling once again.

"I don't think that means that we will be taking further measures this side of Christmas", he said.

But, referring to the TAG report, Mr Drakeford said it was clear that the "period of relaxation over Christmas will lead to a further rise" in cases.

'Not able to disturb Christmas agreement'


Speaking to the Today Programme on BBC Radio 4, Mr Gething said: "Despite all the messaging and encouragement for more people to do the right thing, we haven't seen the significant and sustained change in our pattern of behaviour."

He said it was "possible" but unlikely that the relaxation of Covid restrictions over Christmas could be changed.

Three households are being allowed to socialise indoors as a bubble between 23 and 27 December in a set of rules agreed by all four UK nations.

"I don't think we're going to be able to disturb the Christmas settlement," Mr Gething said.

He said that if the rules were made stricter over the festive period "many people will make up their own rules, and that will present much more difficulty and actually present much more harm to more people."

But Mr Gething suggested that, after Christmas, new restrictions could be on the way, saying: "We have difficult choices to make over the next few days about what we are going to need to do after the Christmas period."


Opposition figures claim the Welsh Government has lost control and that Wales is in a 'perilous' situation


What have the opposition said?


Andrew RT Davies, Welsh Conservative health spokesman, said: "Sadly the Welsh Labour-led Government is losing control of the spread of the virus across Wales.

"If they had followed the Welsh Conservative plan for controlling the virus prior to the firebreak, Wales would be in a better place with fewer deaths and lower infection rates.

"It's now high time that the first minister appointed a vaccination minister to offer relief to his embattled health minister."

Plaid Cymru health spokesman Rhun ap Iorwerth said: "We clearly face a perilous situation in Wales, and it's quite apparent that the November firebreak ended too abruptly.

"I don't see a strategy at the moment. Government communication and messaging needs to be stepped up, but vitally so must support for people to be able to isolate when they've come into contact with a positive case. Simply blaming public behaviour gets us nowhere."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
French Debt Downgrade Piles Pressure on Macron’s New Prime Minister
US and UK Near Tech, Nuclear and Whisky Deals Ahead of Trump Trip
One in Three Europeans Now Uses TikTok, According to the Chinese Tech Giant
Could AI Nursing Robots Help Healthcare Staffing Shortages?
NATO Deploys ‘Eastern Sentry’ After Russian Drones Violate Polish Airspace
Anesthesiologist Left Operation Mid-Surgery to Have Sex with Nurse
Tens of Thousands of Young Chinese Get Up Every Morning and Go to Work Where They Do Nothing
The New Life of Novak Djokovic
The German Owner of Politico Mathias Döpfner Eyes Further U.S. Media Expansion After Axel Springer Restructuring
Suspect Arrested: Utah Man in Custody for Charlie Kirk’s Fatal Shooting
In a politically motivated trial: Bolsonaro Sentenced to 27 Years for Plotting Coup After 2022 Defeat
German police raid AfD lawmaker’s offices in inquiry over Chinese payments
Turkish authorities seize leading broadcaster amid fraud and tax investigation
Volkswagen launches aggressive strategy to fend off Chinese challenge in Europe’s EV market
ChatGPT CEO signals policy to alert authorities over suicidal youth after teen’s death
The British legal mafia hit back: Banksy mural of judge beating protester is scrubbed from London court
Surpassing Musk: Larry Ellison becomes the richest man in the world
Embarrassment for Starmer: He fired the ambassador photographed on Epstein’s 'pedophile island'
Manhunt after 'skilled sniper' shot Charlie Kirk. Footage: Suspect running on rooftop during panic
Effective Protest Results: Nepal’s Prime Minister Resigns as Youth-Led Unrest Shakes the Nation
Qatari prime minister says Netanyahu ‘killed any hope’ for Israeli hostages
King Charles and Prince Harry Share First In-Person Moment in 19 Months
Starmer Establishes Economic ‘Budget Board’ to Centralise Policy and Rebuild Business Trust
France Erupts in Mass ‘Block Everything’ Protests on New PM’s First Day
Poland Shoots Down Russian Drones in Airspace Violation During Ukraine Attack
Brazilian police say ex-President Bolsonaro had planned to flee to Argentina seeking asylum
Trinidad Leader Applauds U.S. Naval Strike and Advocates Forceful Action Against Traffickers
Kim Jong Un Oversees Final Test of New High-Thrust Solid-Fuel Rocket Engine
Apple Introduces Ultra-Thin iPhone Air, Enhanced 17 Series and New Health-Focused Wearables
Macron Appoints Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister Amid Budget Crisis and Political Turmoil
Supreme Court temporarily allows Trump to pause billions in foreign aid
Charlie Sheen says his father, Martin Sheen, turned him in to the police: 'The greatest betrayal possible'
Vatican hosts first Catholic LGBTQ pilgrimage
Apple Unveils iPhone 17 Series, iPhone Air, Apple Watch 11 and More at 'Awe Dropping' Event
Pig Heads Left Outside Multiple Paris Mosques in Outrage-Inducing Acts
Nvidia’s ‘Wow’ Factor Is Fading. The AI chip giant used to beat Wall Street expectations for earnings by a substantial margin. That trajectory is coming down to earth.
France joins Eurozone’s ‘periphery’ as turmoil deepens, say investors
On the Anniversary of Queen Elizabeth’s Death: Prince Harry Returns to Britain
France Faces New Political Crisis, again, as Prime Minister Bayrou Pushed Out
Murdoch Family Finalises $3.3 Billion Succession Pact, Ensuring Eldest Son’s Leadership
Big Oil Slashes Jobs and Investments Amid Prolonged Low Crude Prices
Court Staff Cover Up Banksy Image of Judge Beating a Protester
Social Media Access Curtailed in Turkey After CHP Calls for Rallies Following Police Blockade of Istanbul Headquarters
Nayib Bukele Points Out Belgian Hypocrisy as Brussels Considers Sending Army into the Streets
Elon Musk Poised to Become First Trillionaire Under Ambitious Tesla Pay Plan
France, at an Impasse, Heads Toward Another Government Collapse
Burning the Minister’s House Helped Protesters to Win Justice: Prabowo Fires Finance Minister in Wake of Indonesia Protests
Brazil Braces for Fallout from Bolsonaro Trial by corrupted judge
The Country That Got Too Rich? Public Spending Dominates Norway Election
Nearly 40 Years Later: Nike Changes the Legendary Slogan Just Do It
×