London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Jul 10, 2025

‘Chance of a very cold snap’ in December, climate experts warn

‘Chance of a very cold snap’ in December, climate experts warn

If there are colder-than-usual temperatures before Christmas, that spells bad news for the EU’s energy crisis preparations.
There is a “higher than usual chance” of Europe experiencing a significant cold snap before Christmas, according to a new long-range weather forecast produced by leading international climate authorities.

The warning comes as European countries continue to fill their natural gas storages, hoping to ride out the winter heating season without access to much (or any) natural gas from Russia.

Analysts have said there should be enough gas for a normal winter, but if temperatures plunge then countries might be forced to ration access to gas, affecting industries and jobs.

The chance of a cold spell this year — most likely in December — remains “very real,” Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service at the European Centre for Mid-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), told POLITICO.

October’s “multi-system seasonal forecast,” issued on Wednesday is based on data from the ECMWF along with six other national forecasters.

Predicting winter weather this early in the fall is fraught with uncertainty and key factors that could affect conditions — particularly in January and February — are “not yet in play,” said Buontempo. But European governments bracing for the first winter of the energy crisis should nonetheless be alert to the possibility of a pre-Christmas cold spell which would put additional pressure on the Continent’s squeezed gas supply.

“We are coming out of a warm summer. We know that winters are getting milder. So we may be inclined to think it’s going to be a mild winter and we don’t have to worry,” Buontempo said. “This may well be the case, but the forecast that we issue today and our understanding of how the climate system works lead us to suggest that actually there is still a chance of a very cold snap and, if anything, this year that chance — before Christmas — is higher than in a normal year.”

A cold snap would be linked to a so-called “blocking event” when persistent high pressure leads to “anomalous” easterly winds and colder temperatures over Europe. Currently, climactic conditions indicate that the likelihood of such an event occurring is slightly higher than usual.

Should the current La Niña weather pattern of cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific persist into the New Year — not something that can yet be predicted with certainty — it would typically mean a milder second half of the winter.

Another key factor in determining January and February’s weather — the polar vortex, a ring of high-speed wind surrounding the Arctic — is not yet established, making any firm predictions about this period impossible.

Buontempo said it's important for European governments to make as much use as possible of existing data on climactic conditions and likely weather patterns — not just to plan for cold snaps but also to foresee potential periods of low wind and low rainfall that could impact renewable energy production.

“We have a huge amount of free and open data available,” Buontempo said. “We need to use it properly because it has become so strategically important.”

Wednesday's forecast still contains uncertainties, and energy markets typically pay very close attention to November's long-range forecast as, by then, most of the major factors shaping weather patterns for the second part of winter are in play, Buontempo said.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Severe Heatwave Claims 2,300 Lives Across Europe
NVIDIA Achieves Historic Milestone as First Company Valued at $4 Trillion
Declining Beer Consumption Signals Cultural Shift in Germany
Linda Yaccarino Steps Down as CEO of X After Two Years
US Imposes New Tariffs on Brazilian Exports Amid Political Tensions
Azerbaijan and Armenia are on the brink of a historic peace deal.
Emails Leaked: How Passenger Luggage Became a Side Income for Airport Workers
Polish MEP: “Dear Leftists - China is laughing at you, Russia is laughing, India is laughing”
BRICS Expands Membership with Indonesia and Ten New Partner Countries
Weinstein Victim’s Lawyer Says MeToo Movement Still Strong
U.S. Enacts Sweeping Tax and Spending Legislation Amid Trade Policy Shifts
Football Mourns as Diogo Jota and Brother André Silva Laid to Rest in Portugal
Labour Expected to Withdraw Support for Special Needs Funding Model
Leaked Audio Reveals Tory Aide Defending DEI Record
Elon Musk Founds a Party Following a Poll on X: "You Wanted It – You Got It!"
London Stock Exchange Faces Historic Low in Initial Public Offerings
A new online platform has emerged in the United Kingdom, specifically targeting Muslim men seeking virgin brides
Trump Celebrates Independence Day with B-2 Flyover and Signs Controversial Legislation
Boris Johnson Urges Conservatives to Ignore Farage
SNP Ordered to Update Single-Sex Space Guidance Within Days
Starmer Set to Reject Calls for Wealth Taxes
Stolen Century-Old Rolls-Royce Recovered After Hotel Theft
Macron Presses Starmer to Recognise Palestinian State
Labour Delayed Palestine Action Ban Over Riot Concerns
Swinney’s Tax Comments ‘Offensive to Scots’, Say Tories
High Street Retailers to Enforce Bans on Serial Shoplifters
Music Banned by Henry VIII to Be Performed After 500 Years
Steve Coogan Says Working Class Is Being ‘Ethnically Cleansed’
Home Office Admits Uncertainty Over Visa Overstayer Numbers
JD Vance Questions Mandelson Over Reform Party’s Rising Popularity
Macron to Receive Windsor Carriage Ride in Royal Gesture
Labour Accused of ‘Hammering’ Scots During First Year in Power
BBC Head of Music Stood Down Amid Bob Vylan Controversy
Corbyn Eyes Hard-Left Challenge to Starmer’s Leadership
London Tube Trains Suspended After Major Fire Erupts Nearby
Richard Kemp: I Felt Safer in Israel Under Attack Than in the UK
Cyclist Says Police Cited Human Rights Act for Riding No-Handed
China’s Central Bank Consults European Peers on Low-Rate Strategies
AI Raises Alarms Over Long-Term Job Security
Saudi Arabia Maintains Ties with Iran Despite Israel Conflict
Musk Battles to Protect Tesla Amid Trump Policy Threats
Air France-KLM Acquires Majority Stake in Scandinavian Airlines
UK Educators Sound Alarm on Declining Child Literacy
Shein Fined €40 Million in France Over Misleading Discounts
Brazil’s Lula Visits Kirchner During Argentina House Arrest
Trump Scores Legislative Win as House Passes Tax Reform Bill
Keir Starmer Faces Criticism After Rocky First Year in Power
DJI Launches Heavy-Duty Coaxial Quadcopter with 80 kg Lift Capacity
U.S. Senate Approves Major Legislation Dubbed the 'Big Beautiful Bill'
Largest Healthcare Fraud Takedown in U.S. History Announced by DOJ
×