London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Sep 11, 2025

Boris Johnson says 'very low' Covid case rate key to easing lockdown

Boris Johnson says 'very low' Covid case rate key to easing lockdown

Emphasis on infection rate in addition to four initial criteria likely to inflame backbench tensions


Boris Johnson is closely monitoring coronavirus case rates as a requirement for easing restrictions in England, stressing the need for a layer of caution alongside four key criteria set out at the beginning of lockdown.

Last month Matt Hancock, the health secretary, said the success of the vaccine programme, reducing hospitalisations, reducing deaths and controlling the spread of new variants were the four criteria used to decide when the strictest measures could be lifted.

On Monday the prime minister struck a cautious note as he repeatedly emphasised his desire for a slow, controlled easing of restrictions that would not have to be rolled back again – a process he described as “cautious but irreversible”. Johnson said he would “like to see the rates of infection come down very low indeed … we’ll want to see those rates really, really low”.

The emphasis on infection rates as a key factor in the easing of restrictions is likely to inflame tensions with Conservative MPs, some of whom privately pointed out that Hancock committed to the four criteria as recently as 9 February.

Anti-lockdown MPs argue that case rates will matter less once vaccinations take effect. One said on Monday: “Looks like the goalposts left the ground.” A Downing Street source said the four criteria had “never been exclusionary” of other factors and that Johnson had always said the general state of the pandemic would be the key driver.

The prime minister confirmed that he would set out a roadmap for ending restrictions on Monday 22 February, including a concrete timetable with “earliest possible” dates for reopenings – a clarification many MPs had been clamouring for. But he also said the rate of infection would need to be studied at every turn.

“If we possibly can, we’ll be setting out dates,” he said. “The dates that we will be setting out will be the dates by which we hope we can do something at the earliest … If, because of the rate of infection, we have to push something off a little bit to the right – delay it for a little bit – we won’t hesitate to do that.”


Asked if coronavirus could eventually be allowed to circulate in the same way as flu does, Johnson again said infection rates could not be allowed to rise too high.

“The risk is that if you have a large volume of circulation, if you’ve got loads of people, even young people, getting the disease, then a couple of things happen,” he said. “First of all, you have a higher risk of new variants and mutations within the population where the disease is circulating. Secondly, there will also be a greater risk of the disease spreading out into the older groups again.”

On Monday night, MPs were sharing on WhatsApp quotes from Hancock when he was previously asked by the Tory MP William Wragg about whether the number of cases was a key criteria. “No. The prime minister has set out the four conditions that need to be met and will be saying more about that on 22 February,” Hancock said last Tuesday.

The latest figures show 9,765 new positive coronavirus tests recorded in the UK, the first time the daily figure has been under 10,000 since 2 October, though figures are often lower due to reporting lags at the weekend. The government is awaiting key Public Health England data showing the effect of more than 12m first vaccine doses administered.

“We need to drive infection rates down much lower than they are right now to avoid the mutations you get when there is high prevalence,” one Whitehall official said. “The reason numbers are coming down now is by and large not vaccine-related yet, even though there are some early signs. If you unlock from a high level of people in hospital, then numbers will go straight back up again – we saw that happen in Israel. We cannot deal with high levels of it knocking around – we need much, much lower levels.”

Downing Street and government scientists are hoping to be able to take into account key studies into vaccine efficacy as the roadmap takes shape. Johnson said the government still did not have enough data “about the exact effectiveness of the vaccines in reducing the spread of infection”, saying there were some “interesting straws in the wind”, but adding: “We don’t today have all the hard facts that we need.”

One government source said the absence of sufficient data on vaccine efficacy meant other factors were being taken into account, though it is still expected that enough data can be gathered this week to feed into the roadmap next Monday.

England’s chief medical officer, Prof Chris Whitty, said there had been a number of case control studies, but a wider set of data should be available when rates began rapidly decreasing in the age groups that had been vaccinated.

“I think what we really want to get to is the point where we can see, in a sense with the naked eye, the big effect of the vaccines rather than having to do quite complex calculations of the vaccinated against the unvaccinated, which is where we are at the moment,” he told a Downing Street press conference on Monday.

PHE is conducting a number of surveillance studies, in care homes and the NHS, which are expected to be key to decision-making. The deputy chief medical officer, Jonathan Van-Tam, is said to be “fairly bullish” that studies will show an effect on transmission, according to one official.

One important study that may not come until the end of the month is the Pfizer “real-world study” on efficacy, but some promising findings have already leaked out in recent weeks.

“Ultimately, what matters is whether it is preventing death and preventing the kind of illness that puts pressure on the NHS, because those are the things that lead to the introduction or prolonging of lockdowns,” a Department of Health and Social Care source said.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
The British legal mafia hit back: Banksy mural of judge beating protester is scrubbed from London court
Surpassing Musk: Larry Ellison becomes the richest man in the world
Embarrassment for Starmer: He fired the ambassador photographed on Epstein’s 'pedophile island'
Manhunt after 'skilled sniper' shot Charlie Kirk. Footage: Suspect running on rooftop during panic
Effective Protest Results: Nepal’s Prime Minister Resigns as Youth-Led Unrest Shakes the Nation
Qatari prime minister says Netanyahu ‘killed any hope’ for Israeli hostages
King Charles and Prince Harry Share First In-Person Moment in 19 Months
Starmer Establishes Economic ‘Budget Board’ to Centralise Policy and Rebuild Business Trust
France Erupts in Mass ‘Block Everything’ Protests on New PM’s First Day
Poland Shoots Down Russian Drones in Airspace Violation During Ukraine Attack
Brazilian police say ex-President Bolsonaro had planned to flee to Argentina seeking asylum
Trinidad Leader Applauds U.S. Naval Strike and Advocates Forceful Action Against Traffickers
Kim Jong Un Oversees Final Test of New High-Thrust Solid-Fuel Rocket Engine
Apple Introduces Ultra-Thin iPhone Air, Enhanced 17 Series and New Health-Focused Wearables
Macron Appoints Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister Amid Budget Crisis and Political Turmoil
Supreme Court temporarily allows Trump to pause billions in foreign aid
Charlie Sheen says his father, Martin Sheen, turned him in to the police: 'The greatest betrayal possible'
Vatican hosts first Catholic LGBTQ pilgrimage
Apple Unveils iPhone 17 Series, iPhone Air, Apple Watch 11 and More at 'Awe Dropping' Event
Pig Heads Left Outside Multiple Paris Mosques in Outrage-Inducing Acts
Nvidia’s ‘Wow’ Factor Is Fading. The AI chip giant used to beat Wall Street expectations for earnings by a substantial margin. That trajectory is coming down to earth.
France joins Eurozone’s ‘periphery’ as turmoil deepens, say investors
On the Anniversary of Queen Elizabeth’s Death: Prince Harry Returns to Britain
France Faces New Political Crisis, again, as Prime Minister Bayrou Pushed Out
Murdoch Family Finalises $3.3 Billion Succession Pact, Ensuring Eldest Son’s Leadership
Big Oil Slashes Jobs and Investments Amid Prolonged Low Crude Prices
Court Staff Cover Up Banksy Image of Judge Beating a Protester
Social Media Access Curtailed in Turkey After CHP Calls for Rallies Following Police Blockade of Istanbul Headquarters
Nayib Bukele Points Out Belgian Hypocrisy as Brussels Considers Sending Army into the Streets
Elon Musk Poised to Become First Trillionaire Under Ambitious Tesla Pay Plan
France, at an Impasse, Heads Toward Another Government Collapse
Burning the Minister’s House Helped Protesters to Win Justice: Prabowo Fires Finance Minister in Wake of Indonesia Protests
Brazil Braces for Fallout from Bolsonaro Trial by corrupted judge
The Country That Got Too Rich? Public Spending Dominates Norway Election
Nearly 40 Years Later: Nike Changes the Legendary Slogan Just Do It
Generations Born After 1939 Unlikely to Reach Age One Hundred, New Study Finds
End to a four-year manhunt in New Zealand: the father who abducted his children to the forests was killed, the three siblings were found
Germany Suspends Debt Rules, Funnels €500 Billion Toward Military and Proxy War Strategy
EU Prepares for War
BMW Eyes Growth in China with New All‑Electric Neue Klasse Lineup
Trump Threatens Retaliatory Tariffs After EU Imposes €2.95 Billion Fine on Google
Tesla Board Proposes Unprecedented One-Trillion-Dollar Performance Package for Elon Musk
US Justice Department Launches Criminal Mortgage-Fraud Probe into Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook
Escalating Drug Trafficking and Violence in Latin America: A Growing Crisis
US and Taiwanese Defence Officials Held Secret Talks in Alaska
Report: Secret SEAL Team 6 Mission in North Korea Ordered by Trump in 2019 Ended in Failure
Gold Could Reach Nearly $5,000 if Fed Independence Is Undermined, Goldman Sachs Warns
Uruguay, Colombia and Paraguay Secure Places at 2026 World Cup
Florida Murder Case: The Adelson Family, the Killing of Dan Markel, and the Trial of Donna Adelson
Trump Administration Advances Plans to Rebrand Pentagon as Department of War Instead of the Fake Term Department of Defense
×