London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Feb 21, 2024

Bank of England to lift rates to 4% on Feb 2, finish at 4.25% in March - Reuters poll

Bank of England to lift rates to 4% on Feb 2, finish at 4.25% in March - Reuters poll

The Bank of England will lift the Bank Rate by 50 basis points on Feb. 2 to 4.00% and then add another 25 basis points in March before pausing, according to a Reuters poll of economists who said the greater risk was that it would do even more.
Britain's central bank was one of the first among global peers to begin raising borrowing costs and has added 340 basis points since it began the current cycle in December 2021 to tame inflation now running at more than five times its 2% target.

Prices jumped 10.5% in December from a year earlier, official data showed last week, as food and drink prices increased at their fastest pace since 1977.

A firm majority, 29 of 42 respondents to the Jan. 18-24 poll, said the Bank would add 50 basis points next Thursday. Thirteen opted for a more modest 25-basis-point rate rise.

Median forecasts in the poll showed the Bank would then add 25 basis points in March, giving a peak rate of 4.25%. It was last over 4.00% in late 2008.

Both the United States Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are also nearing the end of their policy tightening campaigns, separate Reuters polls found.

Markets are pricing in a peak of 4.50% for Bank Rate. Governor Andrew Bailey said last week there was now more optimism about the prospects for inflation falling this year, noting the BoE had not pushed back against market expectations.

Inflation has proved sticky, however. When asked about the risks around their peak rate forecasts, 20 of 24 respondents to an additional question said the greater risk was that Bank Rate ends higher than they expect rather than lower.

"More resilient growth versus our forecasts should mean core inflation is likely to be stickier and give some space or force the BoE to hike a bit more than we forecast," said Raphael Olszyna-Marzys at J. Safra Sarasin.

Inflation has likely already peaked, but according to the poll it won't fall to the Bank's target until the end of next year. It will average 7.0% this year and 2.5% in 2024, the poll found, but will drop to 1.9% across 2025.

RECESSION

Britain's economy is almost certainly heading for a recession, with the poll giving that scenario a strong 75% chance within a year, albeit lower than the 85% probability given last month.

Gross domestic product contracted 0.3% in the third quarter but the poll said it flatlined last quarter, thus just dodging the technical definition of a recession.

However, the poll showed GDP falling 0.3% this quarter and next and 0.1% in the third quarter.

Still, when questioned, 20 of 24 respondents said the downturn was more likely to be shallower than they currently expect rather than deeper.

Across this year, the economy was predicted to contract 0.9% before growing 0.8% in 2024.

"The consumer will struggle in 2023, with the UK likely in a mild recession for much of this year as the lagged impact of higher interest rates quells growth prospects, adding to the effects of the cost-of-living crisis," said Ellie Henderson at Investec.

Workers, from rail staff and healthcare workers to teachers, have been taking industrial action to demand better pay as they face soaring costs.
Newsletter

Related Articles

London Daily
0:00
0:00
Close
New video
You Are So Beautiful
Tucker Carlson says Boris Johnson wants "a million dollars, in Bitcoin or cash, from Tucker Carlson to talk about Ukraine.
Postmodern Jukebox European Tour Version
Russia is rebuilding capacity to destabilize European countries, new UK report warns
An old French tune (by Georges Brassens) Pomplamoose ft. John Schroeder
EU Commission wants anti-drone defenses at Brussels HQ
Sattahip Motor Show 20
Von der Leyen’s 2nd-term pitch: More military might, less climate talk
SONATE AU CLAIR DE LUNE - Moonlight sonata
Global Law Enforcement Dismantles Lockbit Ransomware Operation
A kiss to build a dream on
Prince William Urges End to Gaza Conflict
Wonderful Tonight - Eric Clapton (Boyce Avenue acoustic cover)
UK court to hear Assange's final appeal against extradition to the US, where he faces charges related to his journalistic work—the publication of a classified video in 2010 that exposed US war crimes against humanity.
Mean Blues
About 50-60% kids either chose to be YouTuber or influencer
La Chansonnette
A viral video of Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce lying on a Canberra footpath is celebrated by his media mates.
Pattaya Addicts
European Countries React to Navalny's Death by Summoning Russian Diplomats
Franz Liszt - Liebestraum - Love Dream
Israel has gone ‘beyond self-defence’ in Gaza, says Labour’s Streeting
Dream a little dream of me
English farmers to be offered ‘largest ever’ grant scheme amid food security concerns
Unchained Melody sung like you've NEVER heard!
Cameron government knew Post Office ditched Horizon IT investigation
Dave Brubeck - Take Five
EU Calls for Immediate Ceasefire in Gaza Conflict
Édith Piaf - Non, Je Ne Regrette Rien (Sofie)
EU Vows To Hold Putin "Accountable" After Meeting Alexei Navalny's Wife
Rondo Alla Turca
EU Launches Probe Into TikTok Over Child Protection Under Digital Content Law
Kiss of fire
The EU Initiates Naval Mission to Defend Red Sea Trade Routes
Tom Jones - I´ll Never Fall In Love Again 1967, 1989, 2001
EU and UK Announce Joint Effort on Migration
Israel Cachao López - Guajira Clásica
Brazil's Lula Likens Gaza Operation to Holocaust, Israel Says "Red Line" Crossed
Edward Maya - Stereo Love (feat. Vika Jigulina) (Extended Mix)
Ministers Confirm Proposal to Prohibit Mobile Phone Usage in English Schools
Strauss - Radetzky March - Karajan
Microsoft-backed OpenAI valued at $80bn after company completes deal
La vie en rose
‘Alexei would want to tell Russia not to give up fighting’
The Temptations - My Girl (Smokey Robinson Tribute) 2006 Kennedy Cent
Rwandan Footballer's Dismissal Sparks Concerns Over UK Asylum Plan
Orlando Cachaito Lopez Redencion
Whisky Challenges China's Baijiu Market During New Year Celebrations
Edith Piaf - NON, JE NE REGRETTE RIEN
Avdiivka - Symbol Of Ukrainian Resistance Now In Control Of Russian Troops
RADETZKY MARCH-2008-Wien, New Year Concert
Putin Critic Alexei Navalny's "Killers" Refusing To Hand Over Body, Say Allies
Only you (And you alone)
"Historic Step": Zelensky Signs Security Pact With Germany
Strangers In The Night
"Historic Step": Zelensky Signs Security Pact With Germany
Charles Aznavour - La Boheme
20 Tech Giants Sign Effort To Fight AI Election Interference Across Globe
Summer time
Joe Biden Accuses Putin of Causing Navalny's Death
Sting and Stevie Wonder - Fragile (from Sting's 60th birthday concert)
Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny has died at the Arctic prison colony
Aux Champs Elysees
Tucker Carlson grocery shopping in Russia. This is so interesting.
Stand By Me - Ben E. King (Boyce Avenue acoustic cover)
Julian Assange's Wife Warns of His Death if Extradited to US
La Mer (Beyond the Sea) – Avalon Jazz Band
‘A lot higher than we expected’: Russian arms production worries Europe’s war planners
She
Greece Legalizes Same-Sex Marriage and Adoption Rights
Nathalie Song by Enzo Petrachi Stjepan Hauser Cello
Hungarian Foreign Minister: Europeans will lose Europe, the Union's policy must change drastically
Shape of My Heart - Sting (Boyce Avenue acoustic cover)
In Britain Homeowners are receiving CPO’s (Compulsory Purchase Orders) so their homes can be redistributed to migrants
Radiohead - Creep
Microsoft says it caught hackers from China, Russia and Iran using its AI tools
Quizás,Quizás,Quizás - Andrea Bocelli - Jennifer Lopez
Influencers Exploit X Platform for Profit Amidst Israel-Gaza Conflict
Perhaps, Perhaps, Perhaps - Multi-Couples
Former Dutch PM And Wife Die "Together Hand In Hand" Via Duo Euthanasia
Pentatonix Havana
Media Giant Paramount Global, Which Owns CBS News, To Cut 800 Jobs
Paula Cole - Autumn Leaves
US Rejects Putin's Ceasefire Offer in Ukraine
Oscar Benton Bensonhurst Blues
"History is Watching": Biden Encourages US House to Approve Ukrainian War Aid
OH NANANA vs ABUSADAMENTE
Wolf! Wolf!: Joe Biden Joins TikTok Despite Washington's Security Risk Warnings
Nina Simone - ”I Put A Spell On You”. Vezi aici cum cântă Jeremy Ragsd
A Londoner has been arrested for expressing his Christian beliefs.
NIGHTWISH - The Phantom Of The Opera
Chinese Women Favor AI Boyfriends Over Humans
Motorshow 2016 Tanjay Negros Oriental
Kylie Minogue to receive Brits global icon award and will perform at ceremony
Monica Bellucci - Ti Amo
Greece must address role in migrant vessel disaster that killed 600: Amnesty
Michael Jackson - Billie Jean Milena The Voice France 2018
Russian Oligarch's Seized Yacht Costs More Than $7 Million A Year To Maintain: US
Michael Buble (Help Me Make It Through The Night) feat Loren Allred
Memories Canon In D - Maroon 5 (Boyce Avenue piano acoustic cover)
Matteo Simoni - Marina
Maroon 5 - One More Night
Maroon 5 - Memories
Mark Knopfler - Brothers In Arms (Berlin 2007 Live)
Mark Knopfler & Emmylou Harris - Romeo And Juliet (Real Live Roadrunni
Marina, Marina - The LUCKY DUCKIES intimist live concert at Guimarães
Major Lazer & DJ Snake – Lean On Mauranne The Voice France 2016
Love Theme from Romeo and Juliet - Joslin - Henri Mancini, Nino Rota
LoLa & Hauser - Love Story
Linkin Park Jay-Z - Numb Encore (Live 8 2005)
Hallelujah Mennel Ibtissem, The Voice France Leonard Cohen
Leonard Cohen - Dance Me to the End of Love
Leonard Cohen & Natasha Rostova - Dance me to the end of love
La casa de papel - Bella Ciao
La Camisa Negra
L'italiano (Toto Cutugno) - The Gypsy Queens
Juanes - La Camisa Negra
Jonathan and Charlotte - Britain's Got Talent 2012 Live Semi Final - U
John Powell - Assassin's Tango
Joe Cocker - You Can Leave Your Hat On (LIVE in Dortmund)
Joe Cocker - Unchain My Heart 2002 Live
Joe Cocker - A Whiter Shade Of Pale
Jay Z & Alicia Keys - Empire State of Mind LIVE
Jason Mraz - Im Yours (live)
Jarrod Radnich - Bohemian Rhapsody - Virtuosic Piano Solo
James Blunt - You're Beautiful
James Blunt - You're Beautiful & Bonfire Heart (Live at The Nobel Peac)
If You Go Away - Helen Merrill & Stan Getz (Tribute to Virna Lisi)
I'LL BE MISSING YOU
I Say a Little Prayer
Hotel California ( Eagles ) 1994 Live
Historia de un amor - Luz Casal. Vezi interpretarea Biancăi Sumanariu
Here Comes The Sun - The Beatles (Boyce Avenue acoustic cover) on Spot
Heart - Stairway to Heaven Led Zeppelin - Kennedy Center Honors
HAVANA by Camila Cabello Zumba Pre Cooldown TML Crew Kramer Pastra
HAUSER and Señorita - I Will Always Love You
HAUSER - Waka Waka
HAUSER - Sway
HAUSER - Lambada
HAUSER - Historia de un Amor
HAUSER - Despacito
Great Pretender
Georgia May Foote & Giovanni Pernice Samba to 'Volare' - Strictly Come
Gary Moore - Still Got The Blues
GIPSY KINGS VOLARE Penelope Cruz
Fugees - Killing Me Softly With His Song
French Latino - Historia de un Amor
For A Few Dollars More The Danish National Symphony Orchestra (Live)
Flashdance • What a Feeling • Irene Cara
Filip Rudan - “Someone You Loved” Audicija 4 The Voice Hrvatska Sez
Eric Clapton - Wonderful Tonight
Enya - Only Time
Enrique Iglesias - Bailando (English Version) ft. Sean Paul
Enrique Iglesias - Bailamos
Elena Yerevan Historia de un amor
Ed Sheeran - Shape of You (Official Music Video)
Ed Sheeran - Perfect Symphony [with Andrea Bocelli]
Ed Sheeran - Perfect (Official Music Video)
Easy On Me - Adele (Boyce Avenue 90’s style piano acoustic cover) on S
ERA - Ameno
ELENA YEREVAN- Cancion Del Mariachi-IN STUDIO-2017 DPR
Dust In The Wind - Kansas (Boyce Avenue acoustic cover)
Don't Let Me Be Misunderstood
Despacito x Shape Of You - Pentatonix
Deep Purple - Child In Time - Live (1970)
David Foster When A Man Loves A WomanIt's A Mans World (SealMichael Bo
Dance me to the end of Love ( Pi-Air Design )
Coolio - Gangsta's Paradise (feat. L.V.) [Official Music Video]
Conquest Of Paradise (Vangelis), played on Böhm Emporio organ
Cielito Lindo
Chico & The Gypsies - Bamboleo
Canción Del Mariachi - Antonio Banderas, Los Lobos • Desperado
Camila Cabello - Havana (Audio) ft. Young Thug
Camila Cabello - Havana ( cover by J.Fla )
California Dreamin' - The Mamas & The Papas José Feliciano (Boyce Ave
Buster Benton - Money Is The Name of The Game
Hallelujah Pentatonix
Bobby McFerrin - Don't Worry Be Happy (Official Music Video)
Bob Dylan - Knockin' On Heaven's Door Emilia The Voice Kids France
Besame Mucho - Cesaria Evora
Ben E. King - Stand by Me Sax Cover Alexandra Ilieva Thomann
Bella Ciao
Bella Ciao - INSTRUMENTAL
Beautiful in White x Canon in D (Piano Cover by Riyandi Kusuma)
Bad Romance - Vintage 1920's Gatsby Style Lady Gaga Cover ft. Ariana Savalas & Sarah Reich(1)
BELLA CIAO 2020 - KARAOKE ITALIANO
BAMBOLEO - Gipsy Kings • Antonio Banderas, Katya Virshilas
BAILANDO (original)
Awesome Ukrainian yodeler - SOFIA SHKIDCHENKO (with English subtitles)
Avicii - The Nights
Atom - The Great Gig in the Sky
Aretha Franklin - (You Make Me Feel Like) A Natural Woman (Official Ly
Antonio Banderas - Cancion del Mariachi (Desperado)
André Rieu - Zorba's Dance (Sirtaki)
André Rieu - Can't Help Falling In Love
André Rieu & Mirusia - Ave Maria
Andrew Reyes Elton John - Don't Let The Sun Go Down The Voice 2020 (
Andreas Kümmert Whiter Shade Of Pale The Voice of Germany 2013 Showd
And I Love You So
All About That Bass - Postmodern Jukebox European Tour Version
Alan Walker - Faded (Piano Cover)
Ain't No Sunshine -- Bill Withers (cover by Canen 12 y.o.)
African music
Adriana Vidović - “Creep” Audicija 4 The Voice Hrvatska Sezona 3
Adriana Vidović - “Believer” Nokaut 3 The Voice Hrvatska Sezona 3
A Fistful of Dollars - The Danish National Symphony Orchestra and Tuva
4 Beautiful Soundtracks Relaxing Piano [10min]
2CELLOS - Whole Lotta Love vs. Beethoven 5th Symphony [OFFICIAL VIDEO]
2CELLOS - Smooth Criminal (Live at Suntory Hall, Tokyo)
2CELLOS - Smells Like Teen Spirit [Live at Sydney Opera House]
2CELLOS - Despacito [OFFICIAL VIDEO]
13 Year Old Girl Playing Il Silenzio (The Silence) - André Rieu
094.All About That Bass
00 - SADNESS PART 1
(Ghost) Riders In the Sky (American Outlaws Live at Nassau Coliseum, 1
(Everything I Do) I Do It For You - Bryan Adams (Boyce Avenue ft. Conn
What a wonderful world
Moon river
×