London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Sep 11, 2025

Bank of England poised to raise rates by most in 33 years

Bank of England poised to raise rates by most in 33 years

The Bank of England looks set to raise borrowing costs by the most since 1989 next week even as it prepares for a recession that could be deepened by spending cuts under new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

As well as raising interest rates on Thursday for an eighth meeting in a row to tame inflation above 10% - this time by three-quarters of a percentage point according to most analysts - the BoE is also due to become the world's first big central bank to start selling bonds from its stimulus stockpile on Tuesday.

After a period of turmoil in Britain, caused by the economic plans of former prime minister Liz Truss which sparked a bond market rout, the BoE's double-barrelled monetary tightening might look at odds with its current forecasts that the economy will be shrinking until 2024.

But with inflation still set to be way above the BoE's 2% target in 2023 and some of Truss's costly help for households and businesses still in place, the only way is up for borrowing costs.

"As things stand today, my best guess is that inflationary pressures will require a stronger response than we perhaps thought in August," BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said on Oct. 15.

On Aug. 4, the BoE raised rates by half a percentage point, its biggest increase in 27 years, and did so again in September.

Some of Bailey's inflation worries eased two days after he spoke when new finance minister Jeremy Hunt reversed almost all the tax cuts planned by Truss and shortened her income-boosting energy cap programme to six months rather than two years.

But the ongoing spread of inflation through Britain's economy this year means the BoE remains on high alert.

Oxford Economics Chief Economist Andrew Goodwin said the Monetary Policy Committee still faced a difficult balancing act.

"Many economic indicators have weakened since the committee last met in September, but the jobs market has remained tight and pay growth strong," Goodwin said.

FISCAL UNCERTAINTY


Investors are putting a roughly 90% chance on a 75 basis-point hike in Bank Rate to 3% on Nov. 3. That would be less than the full percentage-point expected before Truss's plans were scrapped but would still be the biggest hike by BoE in 33 years.

A Reuters poll of economists published on Tuesday showed most expected a 75 basis-point increase although a sizeable minority saw a bigger increase to 3.25%. On Friday, analysts at ING forecast a smaller, 50-basis point rise.

The picture further ahead is clouded by the delay to Sunak and Hunt's plans for repairing the public finances.

They have warned of tough decisions. British media reported they were considering 50 billion pounds of tax increases and spending cuts, more than estimates of the hole in the budget.

Hunt had been due to announce the plan on Oct. 31 but it was delayed until Nov. 17 after Sunak became prime minister.

Interest rate futures show investors are much less worried about inflation than they were just a few weeks ago with Bank Rate expected to peak at about 4.75% in 2023, down from more than 6% before the sudden end of "Trussonomics."

Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent added an extra dose of cold water on Oct. 20, saying the borrowing costs priced by investors in the preceding days would hammer the economy.

The BoE's plan to start selling some of the bonds it bought since 2009 to support the economy will also ease some of the pressure to raise rates.

Deutsche Bank said the planned 40 billion pounds' worth of sales over the next year were equivalent to about 25 basis points of rate hikes.

But Goodwin at Oxford Economics warned of potential dangers in the plan. "There is no pressing reason to kick off quantitative tightening and bond sales run the risk of triggering renewed turmoil in the gilts market," he said.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
ChatGPT CEO signals policy to alert authorities over suicidal youth after teen’s death
The British legal mafia hit back: Banksy mural of judge beating protester is scrubbed from London court
Surpassing Musk: Larry Ellison becomes the richest man in the world
Embarrassment for Starmer: He fired the ambassador photographed on Epstein’s 'pedophile island'
Manhunt after 'skilled sniper' shot Charlie Kirk. Footage: Suspect running on rooftop during panic
Effective Protest Results: Nepal’s Prime Minister Resigns as Youth-Led Unrest Shakes the Nation
Qatari prime minister says Netanyahu ‘killed any hope’ for Israeli hostages
King Charles and Prince Harry Share First In-Person Moment in 19 Months
Starmer Establishes Economic ‘Budget Board’ to Centralise Policy and Rebuild Business Trust
France Erupts in Mass ‘Block Everything’ Protests on New PM’s First Day
Poland Shoots Down Russian Drones in Airspace Violation During Ukraine Attack
Brazilian police say ex-President Bolsonaro had planned to flee to Argentina seeking asylum
Trinidad Leader Applauds U.S. Naval Strike and Advocates Forceful Action Against Traffickers
Kim Jong Un Oversees Final Test of New High-Thrust Solid-Fuel Rocket Engine
Apple Introduces Ultra-Thin iPhone Air, Enhanced 17 Series and New Health-Focused Wearables
Macron Appoints Sébastien Lecornu as Prime Minister Amid Budget Crisis and Political Turmoil
Supreme Court temporarily allows Trump to pause billions in foreign aid
Charlie Sheen says his father, Martin Sheen, turned him in to the police: 'The greatest betrayal possible'
Vatican hosts first Catholic LGBTQ pilgrimage
Apple Unveils iPhone 17 Series, iPhone Air, Apple Watch 11 and More at 'Awe Dropping' Event
Pig Heads Left Outside Multiple Paris Mosques in Outrage-Inducing Acts
Nvidia’s ‘Wow’ Factor Is Fading. The AI chip giant used to beat Wall Street expectations for earnings by a substantial margin. That trajectory is coming down to earth.
France joins Eurozone’s ‘periphery’ as turmoil deepens, say investors
On the Anniversary of Queen Elizabeth’s Death: Prince Harry Returns to Britain
France Faces New Political Crisis, again, as Prime Minister Bayrou Pushed Out
Murdoch Family Finalises $3.3 Billion Succession Pact, Ensuring Eldest Son’s Leadership
Big Oil Slashes Jobs and Investments Amid Prolonged Low Crude Prices
Court Staff Cover Up Banksy Image of Judge Beating a Protester
Social Media Access Curtailed in Turkey After CHP Calls for Rallies Following Police Blockade of Istanbul Headquarters
Nayib Bukele Points Out Belgian Hypocrisy as Brussels Considers Sending Army into the Streets
Elon Musk Poised to Become First Trillionaire Under Ambitious Tesla Pay Plan
France, at an Impasse, Heads Toward Another Government Collapse
Burning the Minister’s House Helped Protesters to Win Justice: Prabowo Fires Finance Minister in Wake of Indonesia Protests
Brazil Braces for Fallout from Bolsonaro Trial by corrupted judge
The Country That Got Too Rich? Public Spending Dominates Norway Election
Nearly 40 Years Later: Nike Changes the Legendary Slogan Just Do It
Generations Born After 1939 Unlikely to Reach Age One Hundred, New Study Finds
End to a four-year manhunt in New Zealand: the father who abducted his children to the forests was killed, the three siblings were found
Germany Suspends Debt Rules, Funnels €500 Billion Toward Military and Proxy War Strategy
EU Prepares for War
BMW Eyes Growth in China with New All‑Electric Neue Klasse Lineup
Trump Threatens Retaliatory Tariffs After EU Imposes €2.95 Billion Fine on Google
Tesla Board Proposes Unprecedented One-Trillion-Dollar Performance Package for Elon Musk
US Justice Department Launches Criminal Mortgage-Fraud Probe into Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook
Escalating Drug Trafficking and Violence in Latin America: A Growing Crisis
US and Taiwanese Defence Officials Held Secret Talks in Alaska
Report: Secret SEAL Team 6 Mission in North Korea Ordered by Trump in 2019 Ended in Failure
Gold Could Reach Nearly $5,000 if Fed Independence Is Undermined, Goldman Sachs Warns
Uruguay, Colombia and Paraguay Secure Places at 2026 World Cup
Florida Murder Case: The Adelson Family, the Killing of Dan Markel, and the Trial of Donna Adelson
×