London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Feb 20, 2026

Bank of England poised to raise rates by most in 33 years

Bank of England poised to raise rates by most in 33 years

The Bank of England looks set to raise borrowing costs by the most since 1989 next week even as it prepares for a recession that could be deepened by spending cuts under new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

As well as raising interest rates on Thursday for an eighth meeting in a row to tame inflation above 10% - this time by three-quarters of a percentage point according to most analysts - the BoE is also due to become the world's first big central bank to start selling bonds from its stimulus stockpile on Tuesday.

After a period of turmoil in Britain, caused by the economic plans of former prime minister Liz Truss which sparked a bond market rout, the BoE's double-barrelled monetary tightening might look at odds with its current forecasts that the economy will be shrinking until 2024.

But with inflation still set to be way above the BoE's 2% target in 2023 and some of Truss's costly help for households and businesses still in place, the only way is up for borrowing costs.

"As things stand today, my best guess is that inflationary pressures will require a stronger response than we perhaps thought in August," BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said on Oct. 15.

On Aug. 4, the BoE raised rates by half a percentage point, its biggest increase in 27 years, and did so again in September.

Some of Bailey's inflation worries eased two days after he spoke when new finance minister Jeremy Hunt reversed almost all the tax cuts planned by Truss and shortened her income-boosting energy cap programme to six months rather than two years.

But the ongoing spread of inflation through Britain's economy this year means the BoE remains on high alert.

Oxford Economics Chief Economist Andrew Goodwin said the Monetary Policy Committee still faced a difficult balancing act.

"Many economic indicators have weakened since the committee last met in September, but the jobs market has remained tight and pay growth strong," Goodwin said.

FISCAL UNCERTAINTY


Investors are putting a roughly 90% chance on a 75 basis-point hike in Bank Rate to 3% on Nov. 3. That would be less than the full percentage-point expected before Truss's plans were scrapped but would still be the biggest hike by BoE in 33 years.

A Reuters poll of economists published on Tuesday showed most expected a 75 basis-point increase although a sizeable minority saw a bigger increase to 3.25%. On Friday, analysts at ING forecast a smaller, 50-basis point rise.

The picture further ahead is clouded by the delay to Sunak and Hunt's plans for repairing the public finances.

They have warned of tough decisions. British media reported they were considering 50 billion pounds of tax increases and spending cuts, more than estimates of the hole in the budget.

Hunt had been due to announce the plan on Oct. 31 but it was delayed until Nov. 17 after Sunak became prime minister.

Interest rate futures show investors are much less worried about inflation than they were just a few weeks ago with Bank Rate expected to peak at about 4.75% in 2023, down from more than 6% before the sudden end of "Trussonomics."

Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent added an extra dose of cold water on Oct. 20, saying the borrowing costs priced by investors in the preceding days would hammer the economy.

The BoE's plan to start selling some of the bonds it bought since 2009 to support the economy will also ease some of the pressure to raise rates.

Deutsche Bank said the planned 40 billion pounds' worth of sales over the next year were equivalent to about 25 basis points of rate hikes.

But Goodwin at Oxford Economics warned of potential dangers in the plan. "There is no pressing reason to kick off quantitative tightening and bond sales run the risk of triggering renewed turmoil in the gilts market," he said.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Confirms Preferential U.S. Trading Terms Will Continue After Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
U.S. and U.K. to Hold Talks on Diego Garcia as Iran Objects to Potential Military Use
UK Officials Weigh Possible Changes to Prince Andrew’s Position in Line of Succession Amid Ongoing Scrutiny
British Police Probe Epstein’s UK Airport Links and Expand High-Profile Inquiries
Early 2026 Data Suggests Tentative Recovery for UK Businesses and Households
UK Introduces Digital-First Passport Rules for Dual Citizens in Border Control Overhaul
Unable to Access Live Financial Data for January UK Surplus Report
UK Government Considers Law to Remove Prince Andrew from Royal Line of Succession
UK ‘Working Closely with US’ to Assess Impact of Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
Trump Criticises UK Decision to Restrict Use of Bases in Potential Iran Strike Scenario
UK Foreign Secretary and U.S. State Chief Hold Strategic Talks as Tensions Rise Over Joint Air Base
Two teens arrested in France for alleged terror plot.
Nordic Fracture: How Criminal Scandals and Toxic Ties are Dismantling the Norwegian Crown
US Supreme Court Voids Trump’s Emergency Tariff Plan, Reshaping Trade Power and Fiscal Risk
King Charles III Opens London Fashion Week as Royal Family Faces Fresh Scrutiny
Trump’s Evolving Stance on UK Chagos Islands Deal Draws Renewed Scrutiny
House Democrat Says Former UK Ambassador Unable to Testify in Congressional Epstein Inquiry
No Record of Prince Andrew Arrest in UK as Claims Circulate Online
UK Has Not Granted US Approval to Launch Iran Strikes from RAF Bases, Government Confirms
AI Pricing Pressure Mounts as Chinese Models Undercut US Rivals and Margin Risks Grow
Global Counsel, Advisory Firm Co-Founded by Lord Mandelson, Enters Administration After Client Exodus
London High Court dispute over Ricardo Salinas’s $400mn Elektra share-backed bitcoin loan
UK Intensifies Efforts to Secure Saudi Investment in Next-Generation Fighter Jet Programme
Former Student Files Civil Claim Against UK Authorities After Rape Charges Against Peers Are Dropped
Archer Aviation Chooses Bristol for New UK Engineering Hub to Drive Electric Air Taxi Expansion
UK Sees Surge in Medical Device Testing as Government Pushes Global Competitiveness
UK Competition Watchdog Flags Concerns Over Proposed Getty Images–Shutterstock Merger
Trump Reasserts Opposition to UK Chagos Islands Proposal, Urges Stronger Strategic Alignment
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis advocates for a ban on minors using social media.
Liberal Senator Michaelia Cash Accuses Prime Minister of Lying to Australians
Meanwhile in Time Square, NYC One of the most famous landmarks
Jensen Huang just told the story of how Elon Musk became NVIDIA’s very first customer for their powerful AI supercomputer
A Lunar New Year event in Taiwan briefly came to a halt after a temple official standing beside President Lai Ching‑te suddenly vomited, splashing Lai’s clothing
Jillian Michaels reveals Bill Gates’ $55 million investment in mRNA vaccines turned into over $1 billion.
Ex-Prince Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor's arrested
Former British Prince Andrew Arrested on Suspicion of Misconduct in Public Office
Four Chagos Islanders Establish Permanent Settlement on Atoll
Unitree Robotics founder Wang Xingxing showcases future robot deployment during Spring Festival Gala.
UK Inflation Slows Sharply in January, Strengthening Case for Bank of England Rate Cut
Hide the truth, fake the facts, pretend the opposite, Britain is as usual
France President Macron says Free Speech is Bull Sh!t
Viktor Orbán getting massive praise for keeping Hungary safe, rich and migrant-free!
UK Inflation Falls to Ten-Month Low, Markets Anticipate Interest Rate Cut
UK House Prices Climb 2.4% in December as Market Shows Signs of Stabilisation
BAE Systems Predicts Sustained Expansion as Defence Orders Reach Record High
Pro-Palestine Activists Cleared of Burglary Charges Over Break-In at UK Israeli Arms Facility
Former Reform UK Councillors Form New Local Group Amid Party Fragmentation
Reform UK Pledges to Retain Britain’s Budget Watchdog as It Seeks Broader Economic Credibility
Miliband Defends UK-California Clean Energy Pact After Sharp Criticism by Trump
University of Kentucky to Host 2026 Summer Camps Fair Connecting Families with Local Programmes
×