London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Sunday, Jul 12, 2026

Bank of England poised to raise rates by most in 33 years

Bank of England poised to raise rates by most in 33 years

The Bank of England looks set to raise borrowing costs by the most since 1989 next week even as it prepares for a recession that could be deepened by spending cuts under new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

As well as raising interest rates on Thursday for an eighth meeting in a row to tame inflation above 10% - this time by three-quarters of a percentage point according to most analysts - the BoE is also due to become the world's first big central bank to start selling bonds from its stimulus stockpile on Tuesday.

After a period of turmoil in Britain, caused by the economic plans of former prime minister Liz Truss which sparked a bond market rout, the BoE's double-barrelled monetary tightening might look at odds with its current forecasts that the economy will be shrinking until 2024.

But with inflation still set to be way above the BoE's 2% target in 2023 and some of Truss's costly help for households and businesses still in place, the only way is up for borrowing costs.

"As things stand today, my best guess is that inflationary pressures will require a stronger response than we perhaps thought in August," BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said on Oct. 15.

On Aug. 4, the BoE raised rates by half a percentage point, its biggest increase in 27 years, and did so again in September.

Some of Bailey's inflation worries eased two days after he spoke when new finance minister Jeremy Hunt reversed almost all the tax cuts planned by Truss and shortened her income-boosting energy cap programme to six months rather than two years.

But the ongoing spread of inflation through Britain's economy this year means the BoE remains on high alert.

Oxford Economics Chief Economist Andrew Goodwin said the Monetary Policy Committee still faced a difficult balancing act.

"Many economic indicators have weakened since the committee last met in September, but the jobs market has remained tight and pay growth strong," Goodwin said.

FISCAL UNCERTAINTY


Investors are putting a roughly 90% chance on a 75 basis-point hike in Bank Rate to 3% on Nov. 3. That would be less than the full percentage-point expected before Truss's plans were scrapped but would still be the biggest hike by BoE in 33 years.

A Reuters poll of economists published on Tuesday showed most expected a 75 basis-point increase although a sizeable minority saw a bigger increase to 3.25%. On Friday, analysts at ING forecast a smaller, 50-basis point rise.

The picture further ahead is clouded by the delay to Sunak and Hunt's plans for repairing the public finances.

They have warned of tough decisions. British media reported they were considering 50 billion pounds of tax increases and spending cuts, more than estimates of the hole in the budget.

Hunt had been due to announce the plan on Oct. 31 but it was delayed until Nov. 17 after Sunak became prime minister.

Interest rate futures show investors are much less worried about inflation than they were just a few weeks ago with Bank Rate expected to peak at about 4.75% in 2023, down from more than 6% before the sudden end of "Trussonomics."

Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent added an extra dose of cold water on Oct. 20, saying the borrowing costs priced by investors in the preceding days would hammer the economy.

The BoE's plan to start selling some of the bonds it bought since 2009 to support the economy will also ease some of the pressure to raise rates.

Deutsche Bank said the planned 40 billion pounds' worth of sales over the next year were equivalent to about 25 basis points of rate hikes.

But Goodwin at Oxford Economics warned of potential dangers in the plan. "There is no pressing reason to kick off quantitative tightening and bond sales run the risk of triggering renewed turmoil in the gilts market," he said.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Government Creates Emergency Support Scheme for Financially Struggling Universities
United Kingdom Replaces Traditional Farm Subsidies With Payments Linked to Environmental Performance
National Grid Reports First Week of Electricity Generation Without Fossil Fuels
United Kingdom Financial Regulator Introduces Tougher Capital Rules for Cryptocurrency Exchanges
Belfast Harbour Expands Operations to Attract Investment Through United Kingdom and European Union Market Access
Scottish Government Threatens Legal Challenge Over Westminster Cuts to North Sea Transition Funding
United Kingdom Accelerates Trans-Pennine High-Speed Rail Project Linking Northern Cities
United Kingdom Secures Ten Billion Pound Investment for Cambridge Quantum Computing Campus
Port Talbot Steelworks Wins Support for Green Hydrogen Transition and Protection of Industrial Jobs
United Kingdom Sends Royal Navy Carrier Strike Group to Indo-Pacific as Regional Security Focus Expands
National Health Service Expands Artificial Intelligence Diagnostics Across England to Reduce Screening Backlogs
United Kingdom Launches Fifty Billion Pound Infrastructure Fund to Accelerate Housing and Construction
UK Medical Chiefs Update Health Guidance to Promote Everyday Physical Activity
Office of Communications Keeps Wikipedia Under Review Under UK Online Safety Rules
UK Defence Ministry Expands Deep-Strike Capability Through Precision Missile Programme
Russell Group Universities Warn Funding Cuts Could Damage NHS Workforce Training
UK Parliament Calls for National Emergency Broadcast as Heatwave Conditions Intensify
UK and Netherlands Strengthen Naval Cooperation With New Amphibious Defence Partnership
UK Defence Ministry Joins International Missile Programme With One Hundred and Ninety Million Pound Investment
Bank of England Warns Middle East Conflict and AI Risks Could Pressure UK Economy
UK Government Introduces New Rules to Limit Foreign Influence in Political Donations
UK and France Prepare Naval Mission to Protect Shipping Through Strait of Hormuz
United States Pressures UK to Increase Defence Spending at NATO Summit
Bank of England Warns Artificial Intelligence Investment Boom Could Create Financial Stability Risks
Bank of England Begins Direct Oversight of Critical Technology Providers Supporting UK Finance
Andy Burnham Set to Become UK Prime Minister After Labour Leadership Race Clears Path to Downing Street
Scottish Fishing Industry Calls for Emergency Support Amid Rising Costs
UK Supports Stronger European Response to Russian Actions in Ukraine
Devon and Cornwall Police Release Suspect in Ann Widdecombe Murder Investigation
Scottish MPs Demand More Government Support for Fishing Industry
UK Aviation Sector Faces New Rules as Parliament Reviews Passenger Protection Reforms
King’s College London Disciplines Students Over Pro-Palestine Campus Protests
Ministry of Defence Expands Military Capabilities Through New Precision Strike Investment
United Kingdom Condemns Russian Treatment of Ukrainian Children at International Security Forum
House of Lords Reviews Civil Aviation Bill to Strengthen Passenger Rights and UK Aviation Competitiveness
UK Aerospace and Defence Industries Contribute Nearly Forty-Seven Billion Pounds to Economy
UK Government Advances Consultation on Possible Social Media Ban for Children Under Sixteen
United Kingdom Ratifies Global High Seas Treaty to Protect Marine Biodiversity
United Kingdom Joins United States Precision Strike Missile Programme With One Hundred Ninety Million Pound Investment
UK Senior NHS Doctors Vote for Further Strike Action Over Pay and Contract Disputes
BBC Leadership Resigns After Donald Trump Launches Ten Billion Dollar Defamation Lawsuit
UK Fiscal Watchdog Warns Andy Burnham Government Faces One Hundred Billion Pound Budget Challenge
The AI Invoice Shock: Layoffs Didn't Save Managers Money — They Cost Them More
Concern: Sexually Transmitted Bacterium Among Men Develops Antibiotic Resistance
Following Massive Investor Demand: SK Hynix Raises 26.5 Billion Dollars on Nasdaq
Passenger Partially Pulled Out of Ryanair Jet After Cabin Window Fails Mid-Flight
After Four Years, and Under a Heavy Veil of Secrecy: King Charles Meets His Grandchildren, Harry and Meghan's Children
Cross-Party MPs Call for National Climate Emergency Broadcast
Bayeux Tapestry Arrives in the United Kingdom for Landmark Exhibition
United Kingdom Launches Modern Slavery Prevention Programme in Vietnam
×