London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Feb 18, 2026

Bank of England expects UK to fall into longest ever recession

Bank of England expects UK to fall into longest ever recession

The Bank of England has warned the UK is facing its longest recession since records began, as it raised interest rates by the most in 33 years.

It warned the UK would face a "very challenging" two-year slump with unemployment nearly doubling by 2025.

Bank boss Andrew Bailey warned of a "tough road ahead" for UK households, but said it had to act forcefully now or things "will be worse later on".

It lifted interest rates to 3% from 2.25%, the biggest jump since 1989.

By raising rates, the Bank is trying to bring down soaring prices as the cost of living rises at its fastest rate in 40 years.

Food and energy prices have jumped, in part because of the Ukraine war, which has left many households facing hardship and started to drag on the economy.

A recession is defined as when a country's economy shrinks for two three-month periods - or quarters - in a row.

Typically, companies make less money, pay falls and unemployment rises. This means the government receives less money in tax to use on public services such as health and education.

The Bank had previously expected the UK to fall into recession at the end of this year and said it would last for all next year.

But it now believes the economy already entered a "challenging" downturn this summer, which will continue next year and into the first half of 2024 - a possible general election year.

While it will not be the UK's deepest downturn, it will be the longest since records began in the 1920s, the Bank said.

The unemployment rate is currently at its lowest for 50 years, but it is expected to rise to nearly 6.5%.

The interest rate announcement is the first since former Prime Minister Liz Truss and former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng unveiled their controversial mini-Budget in September.

Their plans for £45bn worth of unfunded tax cuts - much of which have been reversed - sent the value of the pound tumbling and sparked market turmoil, forcing the Bank of England to step in to restore calm.

Mr Bailey told the BBC he believed that the mini-budget had "damaged" the UK's standing internationally.

He said that at a recent International Monetary Fund gathering in Washington "it was very apparent to me that the UK's position and the UK's standing had been damaged".

That same week, Mr Kwarteng was sacked as Chancellor.


Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said: "The most important thing the British government can do right now is to restore stability, sort out our public finances, and get debt falling so that interest rate rises are kept as low as possible."

But shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said families could not withstand such high rate rises "when we've got rising food prices, rising energy bills and now higher mortgage rates as well".

The latest rate hike - the Bank's eighth since December - takes borrowing costs to their highest since 2008, when the UK banking system faced collapse.

The Bank believes by raising interest rates it will make it more expensive to borrow and encourage people not to spend money, easing the pressure on prices in the process.

But while its latest rate rise will be welcomed by savers, it will have a knock-on effect on those with mortgages, credit card debt and bank loans.


'I'm nervous about the loan on my van'

Michelle, 58, from East Riding in Yorkshire has a loan on a van and is nervous about rising interest rates.

"My disposable income has gone down dramatically recently and I earn more than the amount to get benefits," she told the BBC. "They need to help the middle earners."

Michelle needs the van to get to work as there's no public transport near her. But if her loan repayment costs rise she fears she'll have to give up the vehicle.

"I can work from home, but like most places my place of work wants us back in the office at least three days a week and I've had to have talks with them about how I can afford that.

"It's a 60-mile round trip, it's expensive."

Those with mortgages are also feeling nervous. The Bank forecasts that if interest rates continue to rise, those whose fixed rate deals are coming to an end could see their annual payments soar by up to £3,000.

It said that it would increase interest rates if inflation remained high. Financial markets had been expecting rates to peak at 5.25% but the Bank does not expect them to rise this high.

The Bank's rate decision comes before the government unveils its tax and spending plans under new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at the Autumn Statement on 17 November.

On Thursday, the pound slumped 2% against the dollar and the cost of government borrowing rose in response to the Bank's warnings.


Mini-budget "damaged" the UK's reputation, says Bank of England boss


Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Italian Police Arrest Man After Alleged Attempt to Abduct Toddler at Bergamo Supermarket, Child Hospitalised With Fractured Femur
Reform UK Appoints Former Conservative Minister Robert Jenrick as Finance Chief
UK Unemployment Rises to Highest in Nearly Five Years as Labour Market Weakens
Rupert Lowe Advocates for English-Only Use in the UK
US Successfully Transports Small Nuclear Reactor from California to Utah
South Korea's traditional sand wrestling sport ssireum faces declining interest at home
Japan outlawed Islam
Virginia Giuffre accuses Epstein of trafficking to powerful men for blackmail.
New Mexico lawmakers initiate investigation into Zorro Ranch linked to Jeffrey Epstein
British Tourist Arrested at Hong Kong Airport After Meltdown and Vandalism
The Spanish government has ordered prosecutors to investigate platforms X, Meta and TikTok for allegedly spreading AI-generated child sexual abuse material
European Commission Plans Purchase Incentives Limited to Vehicles Manufactured Largely in the EU
French District of Pas-de-Calais Introduces Immediate License Suspension for Drivers Using Mobile Phones
Volkswagen Targets €60 Billion in Cost Reductions as Sales Decline and Global Pressures Intensify
Nigel Farage Names Reform UK Frontbench Team and Signals Zero Tolerance for Internal Dissent
Qualcomm to Withdraw UK Lawsuit Over Smartphone Chip Royalty Dispute
Major UK Banks Explore Domestic Card Network to Rival Visa and Mastercard
Cold Health Alert Issued Across UK as Temperatures Drop Sharply
Nine-Year-Old Becomes First Child in UK to Undergo Groundbreaking Leg-Lengthening Surgery
UK Workers Face Stagnant Incomes and a Softening Labour Market as Unemployment Climbs
UK Passport Rules Tightened for British Dual Nationals Under New Travel Guidance
California Deepens Global Climate Alliance with New UK Pact and Major Clean-Tech Investment Drive
UK Supreme Court Tightens Rules on Use of ‘Milk’ and ‘Cheese’ Labels for Plant-Based Products
University of Kentucky Postpones Feb. 19 Law Enforcement Training Exercise in Lexington
‘The only thing illegal is Keir Starmer handing these islands to a country like Mauritius!’
JD Vance says Germany is “killing itself” by taking in millions of fake asylum seekers from culturally incompatible nations.
UK Markets Signal Opportunity as Starmer Confronts Intensifying Political Pressure
Trump Criticises Newsom’s UK Climate Pact, Defends Federal Authority Over Foreign Engagements
UK’s Top Prosecutor Says ‘No One Is Above the Law’ as Police Review Claims Against Ex-Prince Andrew
Businessman Adam Brooks weighs in on the reports that the US is set to help Hamit Coskun flee the UK, over free speech concerns
U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi Releases 3.5 Million Pages of Jeffrey Epstein Case Files
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio Comment on European allies report blaming Russia for killing late Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny using toxin from poison dart frogs
Eighty-Year-Old Lottery Winner Sentenced to 16.5 Years for Drug Trafficking
UK Quran Burner May Receive Asylum in the US Amid Legal Challenges
Rubio Calls for Sweeping U.N. Reform, Saying It Has Failed to End Wars in Gaza and Ukraine
10,000 Condoms Distributed at Winter Olympics 2026 Athlete Village Depleted Within 72 Hours
Poland's President Advocates for Evaluating Independent Nuclear Weapons Development
Prince William Meets Saudi Crown Prince as Epstein-Andrew Fallout Casts Shadow
Starmer Calls for Renewed ‘Hard Power’ Investment at European Security Summit
UK Police Establish National Taskforce to Handle Domestic Epstein-Linked Allegations
UK Court Rules Ban on Palestine Action Unlawful in Major Free Speech Test
UK Faces Prospect of Net Migration Turning Negative as Economic Impact Looms
Mayor of Serdobsk in Russia’s Penza Region Resigns After Housing Certificates Granted to Migrant Family Trigger Public Outcry
Pentagon Reviews Anthropic Partnership After Claude AI Reportedly Used in Operation Targeting Nicolás Maduro
President Donald Trump and Hip-Hop’s Political Realignment: Pardons, Public Endorsements, and the Struggle Over Cultural Influence
China’s EV Makers Face Mandatory Return to Physical Buttons and Door Handles in Driver-Distraction Safety Overhaul
Goldman Sachs and DP World Executive Resignations: Elite-Reputation Risk and Corporate Governance Fallout From the Epstein Disclosures
‘Amelia’: The UK Government’s Anti-Extremism Game Villain Who Became a Protest Symbol
Peter Mandelson Asked to Testify Before US Congress Over Jeffrey Epstein Links
Walmart's Earnings and UK Economic Data Highlight Upcoming Financial Trends
×