London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Jan 28, 2026

Bank of England expects UK to fall into longest ever recession

Bank of England expects UK to fall into longest ever recession

The Bank of England has warned the UK is facing its longest recession since records began, as it raised interest rates by the most in 33 years.

It warned the UK would face a "very challenging" two-year slump with unemployment nearly doubling by 2025.

Bank boss Andrew Bailey warned of a "tough road ahead" for UK households, but said it had to act forcefully now or things "will be worse later on".

It lifted interest rates to 3% from 2.25%, the biggest jump since 1989.

By raising rates, the Bank is trying to bring down soaring prices as the cost of living rises at its fastest rate in 40 years.

Food and energy prices have jumped, in part because of the Ukraine war, which has left many households facing hardship and started to drag on the economy.

A recession is defined as when a country's economy shrinks for two three-month periods - or quarters - in a row.

Typically, companies make less money, pay falls and unemployment rises. This means the government receives less money in tax to use on public services such as health and education.

The Bank had previously expected the UK to fall into recession at the end of this year and said it would last for all next year.

But it now believes the economy already entered a "challenging" downturn this summer, which will continue next year and into the first half of 2024 - a possible general election year.

While it will not be the UK's deepest downturn, it will be the longest since records began in the 1920s, the Bank said.

The unemployment rate is currently at its lowest for 50 years, but it is expected to rise to nearly 6.5%.

The interest rate announcement is the first since former Prime Minister Liz Truss and former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng unveiled their controversial mini-Budget in September.

Their plans for £45bn worth of unfunded tax cuts - much of which have been reversed - sent the value of the pound tumbling and sparked market turmoil, forcing the Bank of England to step in to restore calm.

Mr Bailey told the BBC he believed that the mini-budget had "damaged" the UK's standing internationally.

He said that at a recent International Monetary Fund gathering in Washington "it was very apparent to me that the UK's position and the UK's standing had been damaged".

That same week, Mr Kwarteng was sacked as Chancellor.


Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said: "The most important thing the British government can do right now is to restore stability, sort out our public finances, and get debt falling so that interest rate rises are kept as low as possible."

But shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said families could not withstand such high rate rises "when we've got rising food prices, rising energy bills and now higher mortgage rates as well".

The latest rate hike - the Bank's eighth since December - takes borrowing costs to their highest since 2008, when the UK banking system faced collapse.

The Bank believes by raising interest rates it will make it more expensive to borrow and encourage people not to spend money, easing the pressure on prices in the process.

But while its latest rate rise will be welcomed by savers, it will have a knock-on effect on those with mortgages, credit card debt and bank loans.


'I'm nervous about the loan on my van'

Michelle, 58, from East Riding in Yorkshire has a loan on a van and is nervous about rising interest rates.

"My disposable income has gone down dramatically recently and I earn more than the amount to get benefits," she told the BBC. "They need to help the middle earners."

Michelle needs the van to get to work as there's no public transport near her. But if her loan repayment costs rise she fears she'll have to give up the vehicle.

"I can work from home, but like most places my place of work wants us back in the office at least three days a week and I've had to have talks with them about how I can afford that.

"It's a 60-mile round trip, it's expensive."

Those with mortgages are also feeling nervous. The Bank forecasts that if interest rates continue to rise, those whose fixed rate deals are coming to an end could see their annual payments soar by up to £3,000.

It said that it would increase interest rates if inflation remained high. Financial markets had been expecting rates to peak at 5.25% but the Bank does not expect them to rise this high.

The Bank's rate decision comes before the government unveils its tax and spending plans under new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at the Autumn Statement on 17 November.

On Thursday, the pound slumped 2% against the dollar and the cost of government borrowing rose in response to the Bank's warnings.


Mini-budget "damaged" the UK's reputation, says Bank of England boss


Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Wall Street Bets on Strong US Growth and Currency Moves as Dollar Slips After Trump Comments
UK Prime Minister Traveled to China Using Temporary Phones and Laptops to Limit Espionage Risks
Google’s $68 Million Voice Assistant Settlement Exposes Incentives That Reward Over-Collection
Kim Kardashian Admits Faking Paparazzi Visit to Britney Spears for Fame in Early 2000s
UPS to Cut 30,000 More Jobs by 2026 Amid Shift to High-Margin Deliveries
France Plans to Replace Teams and Zoom Across Government With Homegrown Visio by 2027
Trump Removes Minneapolis Deportation Operation Commander After Fatal Shooting of Protester
Iran’s Elite Wealth Abroad and Sanctions Leakage: How Offshore Luxury Sustains Regime Resilience
U.S. Central Command Announces Regional Air Exercise as Iran Unveils Drone Carrier Footage
Four Arrested in Andhra Pradesh Over Alleged HIV-Contaminated Injection Attack on Doctor
Hot Drinks, Hidden Particles: How Disposable Cups Quietly Increase Microplastic Exposure
UK Banks Pledge £11 Billion Lending Package to Help Firms Expand Overseas
Suella Braverman Defects to Reform UK, Accusing Conservatives of Betrayal on Core Policies
Melania Trump Documentary Sees Limited Box Office Traction in UK Cinemas
Meta and EssilorLuxottica Ray-Ban Smart Glasses and the Non-Consensual Public Recording Economy
WhatsApp Develops New Meta AI Features to Enhance User Control
Germany Considers Gold Reserves Amidst Rising Tensions with the U.S.
Michael Schumacher Shows Significant Improvement in Health Status
Greenland’s NATO Stress Test: Coercion, Credibility, and the New Arctic Bargaining Game
Diego Garcia and the Chagos Dispute: When Decolonization Collides With Alliance Power
Trump Claims “Total” U.S. Access to Greenland as NATO Weighs Arctic Basing Rights and Deterrence
Air France and KLM Suspend Multiple Middle East Routes as Regional Tensions Disrupt Aviation
U.S. winter storm triggers 13,000-plus flight cancellations and 160,000 power outages
Poland delays euro adoption as Domański cites $1tn economy and zloty advantage
White House: Trump warns Canada of 100% tariff if Carney finalizes China trade deal
PLA opens CMC probe of Zhang Youxia, Liu Zhenli over Xi authority and discipline violations
ICE and DHS immigration raids in Minneapolis: the use-of-force accountability crisis in mass deportation enforcement
UK’s Starmer and Trump Agree on Urgent Need to Bolster Arctic Security
Starmer Breaks Diplomatic Restraint With Firm Rebuke of Trump, Seizing Chance to Advocate for Europe
UK Finance Minister Reeves to Join Starmer on China Visit to Bolster Trade and Economic Ties
Prince Harry Says Sacrifices of NATO Forces in Afghanistan Deserve ‘Respect’ After Trump Remarks
Barron Trump Emerges as Key Remote Witness in UK Assault and Rape Trial
Nigel Farage Attended Davos 2026 Using HP Trust Delegate Pass Linked to Sasan Ghandehari
Gold Jumps More Than 8% in a Week as the Dollar Slides Amid Greenland Tariff Dispute
BlackRock Executive Rick Rieder Emerges as Leading Contender to Succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair
Boston Dynamics Atlas humanoid robot and LG CLOiD home robot: the platform lock-in fight to control Physical AI
United States under President Donald Trump completes withdrawal from the World Health Organization: health sovereignty versus global outbreak early-warning access
FBI and U.S. prosecutors vs Ryan Wedding’s transnational cocaine-smuggling network: the fight over witness-killing and cross-border enforcement
Trump Administration’s Iran Military Buildup and Sanctions Campaign Puts Deterrence Credibility on the Line
Apple and OpenAI Chase Screenless AI Wearables as the Post-iPhone Interface Battle Heats Up
Tech Brief: AI Compute, Chips, and Platform Power Moves Driving Today’s Market Narrative
NATO’s Stress Test Under Trump: Alliance Credibility, Burden-Sharing, and the Fight Over Strategic Territory
OpenAI’s Money Problem: Explosive Growth, Even Faster Costs, and a Race to Stay Ahead
Trump Reverses Course and Criticises UK-Mauritius Chagos Islands Agreement
Elizabeth Hurley Tells UK Court of ‘Brutal’ Invasion of Privacy in Phone Hacking Case
UK Bond Yields Climb as Report Fuels Speculation Over Andy Burnham’s Return to Parliament
America’s Venezuela Oil Grip Meets China’s Demand: Market Power, Legal Shockwaves, and the New Rules of Energy Leverage
TikTok’s U.S. Escape Plan: National Security Firewall or Political Theater With a Price Tag?
Trump’s Board of Peace: Breakthrough Diplomacy or a Hostile Takeover of Global Order?
Trump’s Board of Peace: Breakthrough Diplomacy or a Hostile Takeover of Global Order?
×