London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Jul 02, 2026

Bank of England expects UK to fall into longest ever recession

Bank of England expects UK to fall into longest ever recession

The Bank of England has warned the UK is facing its longest recession since records began, as it raised interest rates by the most in 33 years.

It warned the UK would face a "very challenging" two-year slump with unemployment nearly doubling by 2025.

Bank boss Andrew Bailey warned of a "tough road ahead" for UK households, but said it had to act forcefully now or things "will be worse later on".

It lifted interest rates to 3% from 2.25%, the biggest jump since 1989.

By raising rates, the Bank is trying to bring down soaring prices as the cost of living rises at its fastest rate in 40 years.

Food and energy prices have jumped, in part because of the Ukraine war, which has left many households facing hardship and started to drag on the economy.

A recession is defined as when a country's economy shrinks for two three-month periods - or quarters - in a row.

Typically, companies make less money, pay falls and unemployment rises. This means the government receives less money in tax to use on public services such as health and education.

The Bank had previously expected the UK to fall into recession at the end of this year and said it would last for all next year.

But it now believes the economy already entered a "challenging" downturn this summer, which will continue next year and into the first half of 2024 - a possible general election year.

While it will not be the UK's deepest downturn, it will be the longest since records began in the 1920s, the Bank said.

The unemployment rate is currently at its lowest for 50 years, but it is expected to rise to nearly 6.5%.

The interest rate announcement is the first since former Prime Minister Liz Truss and former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng unveiled their controversial mini-Budget in September.

Their plans for £45bn worth of unfunded tax cuts - much of which have been reversed - sent the value of the pound tumbling and sparked market turmoil, forcing the Bank of England to step in to restore calm.

Mr Bailey told the BBC he believed that the mini-budget had "damaged" the UK's standing internationally.

He said that at a recent International Monetary Fund gathering in Washington "it was very apparent to me that the UK's position and the UK's standing had been damaged".

That same week, Mr Kwarteng was sacked as Chancellor.


Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said: "The most important thing the British government can do right now is to restore stability, sort out our public finances, and get debt falling so that interest rate rises are kept as low as possible."

But shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said families could not withstand such high rate rises "when we've got rising food prices, rising energy bills and now higher mortgage rates as well".

The latest rate hike - the Bank's eighth since December - takes borrowing costs to their highest since 2008, when the UK banking system faced collapse.

The Bank believes by raising interest rates it will make it more expensive to borrow and encourage people not to spend money, easing the pressure on prices in the process.

But while its latest rate rise will be welcomed by savers, it will have a knock-on effect on those with mortgages, credit card debt and bank loans.


'I'm nervous about the loan on my van'

Michelle, 58, from East Riding in Yorkshire has a loan on a van and is nervous about rising interest rates.

"My disposable income has gone down dramatically recently and I earn more than the amount to get benefits," she told the BBC. "They need to help the middle earners."

Michelle needs the van to get to work as there's no public transport near her. But if her loan repayment costs rise she fears she'll have to give up the vehicle.

"I can work from home, but like most places my place of work wants us back in the office at least three days a week and I've had to have talks with them about how I can afford that.

"It's a 60-mile round trip, it's expensive."

Those with mortgages are also feeling nervous. The Bank forecasts that if interest rates continue to rise, those whose fixed rate deals are coming to an end could see their annual payments soar by up to £3,000.

It said that it would increase interest rates if inflation remained high. Financial markets had been expecting rates to peak at 5.25% but the Bank does not expect them to rise this high.

The Bank's rate decision comes before the government unveils its tax and spending plans under new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at the Autumn Statement on 17 November.

On Thursday, the pound slumped 2% against the dollar and the cost of government borrowing rose in response to the Bank's warnings.


Mini-budget "damaged" the UK's reputation, says Bank of England boss


Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK DEFENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY TILTS TOWARD SOVEREIGN CAPABILITY AND INDUSTRIAL INVESTMENT
UK ECONOMIC POLICY OUTLOOK SHAPED BY LEADERSHIP TRANSITION AND FISCAL SIGNALS
STERLING STRENGTHENS AMID SHIFTING MONETARY OUTLOOK AND GLOBAL LABOUR MARKET SIGNALS
UK HPV VACCINATION PROGRAM NEARLY ELIMINATES CERVICAL CANCER DEATH RISK IN YOUNG WOMEN
UK EXPANDS PRISON SAFETY REVIEW AS GOVERNMENT SEEKS WIDER SYSTEM REFORM
UK DRIVES DIGITAL ASSETS STRATEGY WITH NEW STABLECOIN REGULATORY MODEL
UK TO EXPAND AI INFRASTRUCTURE THROUGH NEW EUROPEAN TECHNOLOGY PARTNERSHIP
UK LAUNCHES £15 BILLION DEFENCE TECH SHIFT TOWARD ADVANCED MILITARY SYSTEMS
CIVIL SERVICE FACES SHIFT IN POWER STRUCTURE AS REGIONAL GOVERNANCE PLANS EXPAND
WHITEHALL CONSIDERS MAJOR DECENTRALISATION PLAN WITH SECOND GOVERNMENT HUB IN MANCHESTER
UK TARGETS SERVICES EXPORT GROWTH IN TRADE TALKS WITH CHINA AMID GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS
POLICE WATCHDOG PROBES OFFICERS OVER HANDCUFFING OF DYING TEENAGER IN HAMPSHIRE CASE
UK REGULATORS UNVEIL DUAL OVERSIGHT FRAMEWORK FOR STABLECOINS AND DIGITAL ASSETS
KEIR STARMER ANNOUNCES £15 BILLION DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY BOOST IN FINAL MAJOR POLICY MOVE
ANDY BURNHAM SIGNALS STRICT FISCAL RULES AS LABOUR LEADERSHIP RACE SHAPES MARKET OUTLOOK
POUND STERLING HITS ONE-YEAR HIGH AS BANK OF ENGLAND SIGNALS NO IMMINENT RATE CUTS
UK Government Confirms Rejected Asylum Seekers to Remain Amid Enforcement Challenges
UK-China Economic Talks Focus on Services Trade and High-Value Sectors
Buckingham Palace Revamp Plans Unveiled to Modernise Royal and Public Facilities
Two Dead After Light Aircraft Crash in Essex Field, Investigation Underway
Princess Diana Marked at 65 With UK Tributes Reflecting on Her Public Legacy
England Teachers Face New Pay Cap Rules for Academy School Leaders Under Education Reform
Dublin Security Alert Escalates After Stabbing and Reports of Transport Disruption
UK Government Faces Scrutiny Over £10,000 Asylum Living Cost Contribution Requirement
England Prepares World Cup Knockout Match Against Democratic Republic of Congo
Northern Rail Project Warned of HS2-Style Cost Risks by UK Parliamentary Committee
UK Tightens Asylum Rules as Most Rejected Applicants Expected to Remain in Country
UK Heat Health Alert Issued as Temperatures Expected to Exceed 30°C Across England
Halifax Brand to Disappear From UK High Streets in Lloyds Banking Group Restructuring
England Teachers Receive 6.6 Percent Pay Rise Over Two Years as Schools Warn of Budget Strain
UK Defence Spending Plan Sparks Budget Clash as Regional Infrastructure Projects Face Pressure
Inquest Continues in Northern Ireland into Death of Noah Donohoe in Belfast
UK Travel Industry Calls for Suspension of New EU Border System During Peak Holiday Season
Telegraph Media Group Acquired by German Media Firm in £575 Million Deal Completion
House of Commons Warns Northern Rail Upgrade Risks Repeating High-Speed 2 Cost Overruns
UK Transport Unions Warn of Summer Strike Action Over Pay Disputes
UK Health Secretary Calls Maternity Care Review a “Watershed Moment” for NHS Reform
Nigel Farage Faces Questions Over £270,000 Payment Linked to Gold Marketing Firm
Labour Government Faces Internal Division Over North Sea Oil and Gas Policy Direction
National Screening Committee Invites New Proposals for UK Health Screening Programmes
UK and China Hold Industrial Strategy Talks on Trade and Export Growth Opportunities
UK Defence Funding Gap Widens as £4.7 Billion Shortfall Puts Pressure on Spending Priorities
United Kingdom Faces Historic Demographic Shift as Deaths Forecast to Exceed Births in England and Wales
United Kingdom Introduces Major Motability Scheme Reforms Targeting £1 Billion in Long-Term Savings
Global Billionaire Numbers Rise 13 Percent Amid Artificial Intelligence Stock Boom
Body of Fifteen-Year-Old Boy Recovered from Manchester Reservoir
Major Rail Disruption in UK After Cows Stray Onto Intercity Tracks
UK Launches National Campaign to Reduce Water Consumption After Heatwave
Foreign Secretary David Lammy Raises Case of UK Woman Death with US Authorities
Shetland Islands Council Approves Subsea Tunnel Plans Linking Major Islands
×