London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Aug 05, 2026

Bank of England expects UK to fall into longest ever recession

Bank of England expects UK to fall into longest ever recession

The Bank of England has warned the UK is facing its longest recession since records began, as it raised interest rates by the most in 33 years.

It warned the UK would face a "very challenging" two-year slump with unemployment nearly doubling by 2025.

Bank boss Andrew Bailey warned of a "tough road ahead" for UK households, but said it had to act forcefully now or things "will be worse later on".

It lifted interest rates to 3% from 2.25%, the biggest jump since 1989.

By raising rates, the Bank is trying to bring down soaring prices as the cost of living rises at its fastest rate in 40 years.

Food and energy prices have jumped, in part because of the Ukraine war, which has left many households facing hardship and started to drag on the economy.

A recession is defined as when a country's economy shrinks for two three-month periods - or quarters - in a row.

Typically, companies make less money, pay falls and unemployment rises. This means the government receives less money in tax to use on public services such as health and education.

The Bank had previously expected the UK to fall into recession at the end of this year and said it would last for all next year.

But it now believes the economy already entered a "challenging" downturn this summer, which will continue next year and into the first half of 2024 - a possible general election year.

While it will not be the UK's deepest downturn, it will be the longest since records began in the 1920s, the Bank said.

The unemployment rate is currently at its lowest for 50 years, but it is expected to rise to nearly 6.5%.

The interest rate announcement is the first since former Prime Minister Liz Truss and former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng unveiled their controversial mini-Budget in September.

Their plans for £45bn worth of unfunded tax cuts - much of which have been reversed - sent the value of the pound tumbling and sparked market turmoil, forcing the Bank of England to step in to restore calm.

Mr Bailey told the BBC he believed that the mini-budget had "damaged" the UK's standing internationally.

He said that at a recent International Monetary Fund gathering in Washington "it was very apparent to me that the UK's position and the UK's standing had been damaged".

That same week, Mr Kwarteng was sacked as Chancellor.


Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said: "The most important thing the British government can do right now is to restore stability, sort out our public finances, and get debt falling so that interest rate rises are kept as low as possible."

But shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said families could not withstand such high rate rises "when we've got rising food prices, rising energy bills and now higher mortgage rates as well".

The latest rate hike - the Bank's eighth since December - takes borrowing costs to their highest since 2008, when the UK banking system faced collapse.

The Bank believes by raising interest rates it will make it more expensive to borrow and encourage people not to spend money, easing the pressure on prices in the process.

But while its latest rate rise will be welcomed by savers, it will have a knock-on effect on those with mortgages, credit card debt and bank loans.


'I'm nervous about the loan on my van'

Michelle, 58, from East Riding in Yorkshire has a loan on a van and is nervous about rising interest rates.

"My disposable income has gone down dramatically recently and I earn more than the amount to get benefits," she told the BBC. "They need to help the middle earners."

Michelle needs the van to get to work as there's no public transport near her. But if her loan repayment costs rise she fears she'll have to give up the vehicle.

"I can work from home, but like most places my place of work wants us back in the office at least three days a week and I've had to have talks with them about how I can afford that.

"It's a 60-mile round trip, it's expensive."

Those with mortgages are also feeling nervous. The Bank forecasts that if interest rates continue to rise, those whose fixed rate deals are coming to an end could see their annual payments soar by up to £3,000.

It said that it would increase interest rates if inflation remained high. Financial markets had been expecting rates to peak at 5.25% but the Bank does not expect them to rise this high.

The Bank's rate decision comes before the government unveils its tax and spending plans under new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at the Autumn Statement on 17 November.

On Thursday, the pound slumped 2% against the dollar and the cost of government borrowing rose in response to the Bank's warnings.


Mini-budget "damaged" the UK's reputation, says Bank of England boss


Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Energy Security Faces Pressure From Middle East Conflict and Red Sea Disruptions
UK Government Expands Employment Discrimination Review Amid Labour Market Changes
UK Campaigners Call for Ban on Toxic Flea Treatments Linked to Water Pollution
MI6 Ranked Europe’s Leading Foreign Intelligence Service in Independent Review
Houthi Missile Attack on Saudi Oil Tanker Raises Further Red Sea Shipping Concerns
Palantir Faces UK Tax Criticism After Paying Two Million Pounds in Corporation Tax
Advanced AI Models Show Unexpected Behaviour During UK Cybersecurity Testing
Bank of England Introduces Tougher Artificial Intelligence Testing Rules for Financial Firms
Next Raises Annual Profit Forecast to One Point Two Four Billion Pounds After Strong Summer Sales
New UK Visa Rules Tighten Skilled Worker, Student and Family Migration Routes
UK Government Proposes New Equal Pay Enforcement Powers for Employers
UK High Court Blocks Home Office Deportation Policy for Alleged Trafficking Victims
UK Health Secretary Yvette Cooper Announces Major Reform of NHS Maternity Services
BP Reports Four-Year High Quarterly Profit of Five Point Seven Billion Dollars Amid Energy Market Turmoil
Bank of England Holds Interest Rate at Three Point Seven Five Percent as UK Growth Remains Weak
Spain and Morocco Trade Blame After 72,000 Migrants Enter Ceuta
Met Police Investigated Journalist Who Questioned Cambridge Professor
Badenoch Defends Tory Candidate Jailed for Antisemitic Abuse of Luciana Berger
NHS Spends £240m a Year Storing Paper Records Despite Digital Push
Apple Seeks Court Order to Stop OpenAI Using Alleged Trade Secrets
Breaking With the Past: One of the World’s Smallest Countries Changes Its Name
AI Is Remaking the US Economy, From GDP Growth to iPhone Prices
Comcast: Tied to a Chair and Hit in the Face With Cake: The Regular Humiliation Ritual at the US Corporate Giant
Aston Martin Faces Legal Threat Over £550m Rescue Deal
Conservative Party and Reform UK Face Growing Scrutiny Over Political Transparency
GMB and Public Sector Unions Prepare for Wider Debate Over Government Priorities
UK Government Faces Pressure to Address National Water Infrastructure Failures
NHS Radiographers Report Rising Racist Abuse From Patients
Breast Cancer Experts Call for Overhaul of NHS Diagnostic Approach
UK Government Reviews Prison Policy After Debate Over Capacity and Public Safety
Nigel Farage Faces Questions Over Leadership Discussions and Five Million Pound Donation
Conservative Party Faces Candidate Controversy Over Former Antisemitic Activist
UK Energy Industry Pushes for Greater Role for Domestic Oil and Gas Production
Gatwick Expansion Debate Continues as Airport Prepares for Second Runway Construction
Reform UK Wants the Royal Navy to Return Channel Boats to France
Government Faces Pressure Over Charity Funding Linked to Illegal Israeli Settlements
UK Fire Chiefs Demand Ban on Disposable Barbecues During Severe Drought
Medical Review Warns Current Breast Cancer Guidelines Miss Many Young Women
NHS Mental Health Trust Announces Twenty-Five Million Pound Service Cuts
MI6 Rated Europe’s Most Capable Foreign Intelligence Service in International Review
UK Watchdog Finds Serious Failures in Electronic Offender Monitoring System
BP Chief Warns UK Must Protect Domestic Oil and Gas Capacity
Water Supply Crisis Threatens England’s Housing Expansion Plans
UK Government Rewrites Procurement Rules to Prioritise Jobs Over Environmental Targets
English Channel Rescue Operation Saves One Hundred Seventy-Three Migrants After Boat Capsizes
Gatwick Airport Wins Legal Approval for Second Runway Expansion
UK Government Tightens Early Prison Release Scheme After Public Backlash Over Offender Freedoms
US and Japan Step In to Support the Yen in Rare Joint Intervention
The AI Pricing Problem: Companies Cannot Predict Their Own Bills
Europe’s Heat and Drought Are Now Disrupting Power, Shipping and Tourism
×