London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Oct 03, 2026

Analysis: Britain takes fight to restore investor faith into 2023

Analysis: Britain takes fight to restore investor faith into 2023

Major investors are rethinking their support for Britain's economy following months of political turmoil and persistent Brexit uncertainties, as experts predict its recovery from a global recession will be slow and painful.

While governments worldwide are grappling with high inflation and low growth, UK policymakers are still rebuilding fiscal and political credibility following the brief, chaotic premiership of Liz Truss.

Top financial industry figures say that even with Truss gone, a tight labour market, low business investment and weak exports mean the economy will lag peers next year. Worries about growth are leading some investors to limit their holdings of the pound and British debt.

"For the time being, we think the risks are too high compared to the rewards," said Vincent Mortier, chief investment officer at Amundi, Europe's largest fund manager, which manages 1.9 trillion euros ($1.98 trillion) in assets.


Foreign investors have traditionally been attracted by Britain's strong rule of law, stable governance and thriving financial and professional services sector. But an open economy means any change in perception can have a large impact.

The fact that Truss - elected by her party, not the country - could pile pressure on the Bank of England and sow mayhem in markets, has heaped scrutiny on Britain's politics and finances.

Her replacement by ex-finance minister Rishi Sunak calmed UK assets, but investors are still brooding over the near-collapse of pension funds and how close Britain came to a financial disaster entirely of its own making.

UK equity funds saw their second-biggest monthly outflows on record in November, data from funds network Calastone shows, a sign investors remain wary since the September crash.

Sterling remains down 9% against a strong U.S. dollar and 3.5% lower versus the euro in what is set to be its worst year since the Brexit vote roiled markets in 2016.

Like other governments, Britain - which plans to raise just over 300 billion pounds, mostly by selling bonds in financial year 2023/24 - has seen borrowing costs rise sharply in 2022.

The benchmark 10-year gilt yield is now above 3% , up more than 200 basis points - in line with U.S. and German yields, but making 2022 the worst year for UK government debt since 1994.

The Bank of England's sales of bonds from its balance sheet will put further pressure on gilts prices by increasing supply.


LONG RECESSION


Britain is expected to endure a protracted recession, with official forecasts pointing to a 1.4% contraction next year. In March, before the full impact of the Ukrainian war was felt, the projection was for 1.8% growth.

Ratings agency Moody's sees UK government debt remaining above 100% of gross domestic product for years.

Saker Nusseibeh, CEO, International at Federated Hermes, which managed $669 billion in assets at Dec. 31, said Truss's botched plan for Britain to borrow its way out of its slow growth rut had inflicted heavy reputational damage overseas.

But he told Reuters that Truss deserved credit for acknowledging something radical needed to happen to halt years of stagnant growth.

"While the government attends to fixing past problems, the focus on the big picture long-term is missing from the rhetoric right now," said Nusseibeh, calling for stronger trade ties with the United States and European Union, which Britain left in 2020.

TS Lombard economist Dario Perkins, credited with coining the term "moron premium" to describe the repricing of UK assets under Truss, told Reuters nobody knew how to "fix the UK today".

"I think most investors realise that Brexit has been a sort of disaster and that the Bank of England can't really solve the problems we face," he said.


'KINDNESS OF STRANGERS'


When former BoE Governor Mark Carney warned in 2016 that Britain was reliant on the "kindness of strangers", foreign direct investment (FDI) represented nearly half the net inflows of funds from abroad.

In the latest data, up to the second quarter of this year, FDI represented more than half the net outflow - a result of strong UK investment abroad but weak inward investment too. The data may also be subject to pandemic-related disruption.

"The UK does look and feel like it's a different bet for international investors than it did 10 years ago," Vivek Paul, UK chief investment strategist at the BlackRock Investment Institute, part of the $10 trillion money manager, told Reuters.

Britain has increasingly financed its enormous current account deficit by selling financial services and bonds to the world, rather than attracting FDI into UK companies.

There are also concerns about how much companies in Britain are prepared to invest in equipment, buildings and staff training to spur growth from the bottom up.

Its business investment performance now sits 6% below its level in mid-2016 as of the second quarter of 2022 - compared to increases of 23% for France, 19% for the United States and 4% for Germany, according to a Reuters analysis of OECD data.

That underperformance on investment means productivity is lagging, with the Confederation of Business Industry expecting output per worker to be 2% below pre-pandemic levels by end-2024. It has warned of "a lost decade of growth".

Two years before a general election must be held, Sunak says the government is listening.

As well as hiking taxes and restraining spending to address the public finances, he has mobilised finance minister Jeremy Hunt to protect London's position as Europe's hub for trading and banking.

A makeover of the financial rulebook is aimed at better using the trillions of pounds moving through the City of London to drive growth and keep tax receipts flowing in.

New freedoms enabling insurers to invest in private sector projects such as infrastructure, and reforms to listings rules should meanwhile help foster budding technology, health and green energy firms.

Stephen Welton, executive chairman of major growth capital investor BGF, said attracting foreign investment was like a global competitive sport - one that Britain had previously excelled at.

"You need all the advantages and you need to play your hand well," he told Reuters. "So we've handicapped ourselves in recent years with continuing uncertainty and we have to recognise that."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Church of England to Apologize for Role in Historical Forced Adoptions
UK Defence Ministry Investigates Historical Use of RAF Bases by Jeffrey Epstein
Scottish Housing Completions Fall to 11-Year Low
Welsh First Minister Calls for Expanded Devolution Settlement
UK Pledges £50 Million to Expand Domestic Military Drone Capabilities
UK Opens First Commercial Geothermal Plant in Cornwall
Green Party Wins Gorton and Denton By-Election as Labour Falls to Third
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Opens Review of UK-EU Relationship
UK Inflation Rises to 3.1%, Adding Pressure on Household Finances
UK Removes VAT From Domestic Electricity Bills to Ease Winter Energy Costs
Counterterrorism Police Arrest Sixth Suspect Over RAF Fairford Incident
UK Councils to Receive Sweeping Planning Powers to Ban New Vape and Betting Shops
Chancellor John Healey Faces Tax and Pension Scrutiny Ahead of Autumn Budget
Metropolitan Police Apologise for Accidental Disclosure in High-Profile Investigation
UK Universities Report Record International Enrolment as Housing Pressure Grows
UK Logistics Firms Monitor Rhine Disruption as Low Water Threatens European Supply Chains
UK Food Industry Warns Inflation Could Approach 7%
UK Introduces Vaping Duty and Mandatory Retail Stamps
Scotland Raises Property Taxes and Expands Child Payment in Annual Budget
Greggs Plans Four Factory Closures With 740 Jobs at Risk
OECD Raises UK 2026 Growth Forecast to 1.1%
UK Inflation Rises to 3.1% as Bank of England Faces Rate Debate
Andy Burnham Criticises Brexit and Says Rejoining EU Single Market Remains an Option
UK Imposes New Sanctions on Russian Military Networks and Propagandists
UK Launches Nationwide Early-Release Prison Scheme
Andy Burnham Says Security Services See Signs of Iranian Involvement in RAF Fairford Incident
Manchester City Found Guilty on Premier League Financial Charges After Independent Investigation
Scottish Court to Rule on Bid to Force No-Confidence Vote Against Aberdeen Council Co-Leader
UK Bans Extra Charges for Seating Children Under 12 Beside Accompanying Adults
UK Introduces Vaping Duty and New Licensing Requirements
Greggs to Close Four UK Factories and Cut 740 Jobs
Hundreds of Prisoners Released Early as England and Wales Prisons Reach 98% Capacity
UK Unveils New Russia Sanctions Targeting War Funding and Shadow Fleet
Burnham Says There Are Strong Indications of Iranian Involvement in RAF Fairford Security Breach
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Raises Prospect of Reviewing Britain's Post-Brexit EU Relationship
Markets Price in Bank of England Rate Increases as Inflation Rises to 3.1%
UK Borrowing Costs Climb Toward 5.5% as Global Bond Sell-Off Intensifies
UK-France One-In-One-Out Migration Agreement Expires as London Seeks Alternative Measures
Southwest England Faces Flood Alerts After Heavy Autumn Storms
UK Expands Funding for Rapid Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure
Welsh Government Approves Funding to Upgrade South Wales Transport
Northern Ireland Tensions Rise as Orange Order Rejects Drumcree Compromise
NHS Leaders Back Early Design of Proposed National Care Service
More Than One-Third of Regional UK Universities Face Financial Deficits
UK Current Account Deficit Narrows as Cross-Border Financial Flows Remain Strong
Bank of England and FCA Issue New Rules for Stablecoins and Digital Assets
MI5 Warns UK Universities Over Research Links With Chinese Institutions
UK Energy Price Cap Rises 4% as Electricity VAT Is Temporarily Suspended
Equity Calls for UK Personality Rights to Protect Performers From AI Replication
OpenAI Pauses Advanced Model Training Following Safety Concerns
×