London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Sunday, Aug 10, 2025

A lawbreaker who could win again: the case for and against ousting Boris Johnson

A lawbreaker who could win again: the case for and against ousting Boris Johnson

Some of the key arguments being deployed by both sides as spin war begins ahead of no-confidence vote

As Boris Johnson faces a no-confidence vote, the spin war over his future was in overdrive on Monday, with opposing camps setting out their stalls. Rebel Tories circulated a note giving reasons to dump the prime minister. And by Monday morning, the chief whip, Chris Heaton-Harris, had sent round No 10’s own note on the case to keep Johnson. These are the key arguments being deployed on either side.

Arguments to remove Johnson


* He broke the law
Many Tory MPs believe Johnson’s leadership became untenable the moment he was given a fixed-penalty notice for breaking Covid laws that he created. The idea that lawbreakers cannot be lawmakers is a powerful one. There is also the sense of hypocrisy, given that Johnson stood up at press conferences and urged people to abide by the law to save lives. A cavalier attitude towards the law was also in evidence when he tried to prorogue parliament at the height of the Brexit crisis and more recently threatened to override parts of the internationally binding Northern Ireland protocol.

* Poor leadership
Aside from Johnson’s own transgressions, he presided over a culture of partying in No 10 that was clearly chaotic and out of control. He may not have personally ordered the wine fridge, drunkenly broken his son Wilfred’s swing, or smuggled in suitcases of wine, but his leadership turned a blind eye to this situation at a time when millions of people were suffering in isolation and seeing relatives die alone. Concerns about his leadership also go back to the Owen Paterson affair, when he tried to get the Tory backbencher off the hook over a breach of parliament’s lobbying rules.

* Unpopularity with the public
The most powerful argument among many Tory MPs for getting rid of Johnson is his unpopularity. He may be guilty of all kinds of wrongdoing but leaders are typically safe and backed by their MPs until the tide of public opinion turns decisively against them. This has happened in the case of Johnson, with the Tories consistently trailing Labour in the polls and MPs hearing from their voters that he should go, as trust in his leadership has evaporated. In an ominous sign, the prime minister was booed at the jubilee service for the Queen on Friday, seemingly by a crowd of royal fans.

* Lack of direction and failure to deal with the cost of living
There is general unease among Tory MPs that the government is rudderless and lacking in ideas. Many of its big cost of living interventions – the windfall tax and energy price cap – have been nabbed from Labour.

* Scattergun rightwing policies
In one of the most brutal letters to the prime minister announcing a loss of confidence, the backbencher Jesse Norman mentioned “foolhardy” and possibly illegal plans to disapply the Northern Ireland protocol, the privatisation of Channel 4 and “ugly” plans to send refugees to Rwanda as reasons he could not support Johnson. There are many others who do not back the prime minister’s lurch to the right and fixation on backward-looking issues such as a return to imperial measures.

* The threat of scandals to come
Rebels point to the reports of another yet-uninvestigated birthday party for Johnson during lockdown, and the fear that the Partygate furore is far from over. MPs are still to determine whether he misled parliament over the lockdown-breaking parties. And there is a sense that with the prime minister, the next scandal cannot be far away – whether over his friendship with Lord Lebedev, the furnishing of the No 11 flat or his relationship with the businesswoman Jennifer Arcuri.

* Risk of an early general election
MPs in marginal seats fear that Johnson could go to the country with an early general election if they allow him to stay in post. They fear that he will seek another personal mandate from the public, rather than allow MPs to have another go at ousting him.

Arguments to keep Johnson


* Lack of an alternative
One of No 10’s strongest arguments is that there is no clear successor to Johnson. The main names in the frame are Rishi Sunak, whose popularity has taken a dive over his tax affairs, and Liz Truss, who has never enjoyed much in the first place. Jeremy Hunt, who lost to Johnson last time, could make a comeback but as a centrist former remainer, he is not particularly palatable to the party’s pro-Brexit right wing, who have prospered under Johnson.

* Stability at a time of war in Europe
Johnson’s allies are arguing that he has made the right calls on Ukraine and it would be destabilising for the country to lose a prime minister at such an uncertain time. Despite Johnson presiding over a degree of instability in the UK, they argue it is in the country’s best interests to stick with a known quantity.

* He won in 2019 and could win again
The prime minister’s backers believe he is a proven winner, after he took many Labour-dominated seats in the north of England and Midlands, winning an 80-seat majority. They argue that people’s memories are short and that by the time of another election in two years’ time, the national conversation will have moved on from the parties in No 10.

* A new leadership contest will lead to “blue-on-blue civil war”
No 10 is arguing that the Tories choosing another leader midway through a parliament will be seen by the voters as self-indulgent and politicians talking about themselves rather than getting on with governing.

* The prospect of a centrist, pro-remain replacement
Behind closed doors, the whips are pointing to an argument made by Tobias Ellwood, one of Johnson’s critics, that the UK should rejoin the single market. They are arguing that the replacement of Johnson with a more centrist alternative could lead to backsliding on Brexit. Although Ellwood’s position is not shared by many colleagues in the Tory party, it has caused some pro-Brexit waverers to think twice about removing the prime minister, who went into the 2019 election promising to “get Brexit done”.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Street justice isn’t pretty but how else do you deal with this kind of insanity? Sometimes someone needs to standup and say something
Armenia and Azerbaijan sign U.S.-brokered accord at White House outlining transit link via southern Armenia
Barcelona Resolves Captaincy Issue with Marc-André ter Stegen
US Justice Department Seeks Release of Epstein and Maxwell Grand Jury Exhibits Amid Legal and Victim Challenges
Trump Urges Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan to Resign Over Alleged Chinese Business Ties
Scotland’s First Minister Meets Trump Amid Visit Highlighting Whisky Tariffs, Gaza Crisis and Heritage Links
Trump Administration Increases Reward for Arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro to Fifty Million Dollars
Armenia and Azerbaijan to Sign US-Brokered Framework Agreement for Nakhchivan Corridor
British Labour Government Utilizes Counter-Terrorism Tools for Social Media Monitoring Against Legitimate Critics
OpenAI Launches GPT‑5, Its Most Advanced AI Model Yet
Embarrassment in Britain: Homelessness Minister Evicted Tenants and Forced to Resign
President Trump nominated Stephen Miran, his top economic adviser and a critic of the Federal Reserve, to temporarily fill an open Fed seat
The AI-Powered Education Revolution: Market Potential and Transformative Impact
Chikungunya Virus Outbreak in Southern China: Over 7,000 Hospitalized
French wine makers have seen catastrophic damage to vines that were almost ready to be harvested after the worst fires in more than 70 years burned through the south of the country
US Lawmaker Probes Intel CEO’s China Ties Amid National Security Concerns
Brazilian President Lula says he’ll contact the leaders of BRICS states to propose a unified response to U.S. tariffs
Trump Open to Meeting Putin as Soon as Next Week, with Possible Trilateral Summit Including Zelenskiy
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau spark dating rumors, joining high stakes world of celeb-politician romances
US envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Moscow to seek a breakthrough in the Ukraine war ahead of President Trump’s peace deadline
WhatsApp Deletes 6.8 Million Scam Accounts Amid Rising Global Fraud
Nine people have been hospitalized and dozens of salmonella cases have been reported after an outbreak of infections linked to certain brands of pistachios and pistachio-containing products, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada
Karol Nawrocki Inaugurated as Poland’s President, Setting Stage for Clash with Tusk Government
Trump Signals JD Vance as ‘Most Likely’ MAGA Successor for 2028
US Charges Two Chinese Nationals for Illegal Nvidia AI Chip Exports
Texas Residents Face Water Restrictions While AI Data Centers Consume Millions of Gallons
U.S. Tariff Policy Triggers Market Volatility Amid Growing Global Trade Tensions
Tariffs, AI, and the Shifting U.S. Macro Landscape: Navigating a New Economic Regime
Representative Greene Urges H-1B Visa Cuts Amid U.S.-India Trade Tensions
U.S. House Committee Subpoenas Clintons and Senior Officials in Epstein Investigation
Sydney Sweeney Registered as Republican as Controversial American Eagle Ad Sparks Debate
Trump Accuses Major Banks of Politically Motivated Account Denials and Prepares Executive Order
TikTok Removes Huda Kattan Video Over Anti-Israel Conspiracy Claims
Trump Threatens Tariffs on India Over Russian Oil Imports
German Finance Minister Criticizes Trump’s Attacks on Institutions
U.S. Proposes Visa Bond of Up to $15,000 for Some Applicants
U.S. Farmers Increase Lobbying Amid Immigration Crackdown
Elon Musk Receives $23.7 Billion Tesla Stock Award
Texas House Paralyzed After Democrats Walk Out Over Redistricting
Mexican Cartels Complicate Sheinbaum’s U.S. Security Talks
Mark Zuckerberg Declares War on the iPhone
India Rejects U.S. Tariff Threat, Defends Russian Oil Purchases
United States Establishes Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Digital Asset Stockpile
Thousands of Private ChatGPT Conversations Accidentally Indexed by Google
China Tightens Mineral Controls, Curtailing Critical Inputs for Western Defence Contractors
OpenAI’s Bold Bet: Teaching AI to Think, Not Just Chat
Tesla Seeks Shareholder Approval for $29 Billion Compensation Package for Elon Musk
Nvidia is cutting prices on its RTX 50-series graphics cards after sales slowed and inventories piled up
Ghislaine Maxwell Transferred to Minimum-Security Prison Amid Ongoing DOJ Discussions
U.S. Tariffs Surge to Highest Levels in Nearly a Century Under Second Trump Term
×