London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Apr 13, 2026

Why once 'unthinkable' UBS-Credit Suisse takeover is like merging Liverpool and Manchester United and a win-win

Why once 'unthinkable' UBS-Credit Suisse takeover is like merging Liverpool and Manchester United and a win-win

How Credit Suisse emerged from the financial crisis - via a private sector solution compared to UBS's taxpayer bailout - may have created a sense of hubris that ultimately led to its downfall, Sky's Ian King writes. But the deal to combine the two is like merging Coca-Cola and Pepsi.
To those who do not work in or follow closely the fortunes of the banking sector, it is impossible to neatly sum up the seismic nature of UBS's takeover of its Swiss rival Credit Suisse.

These two are the Coca-Cola and Pepsi of the Swiss banking world, the Liverpool and Manchester United, the McDonald's and Burger King.

Combining the pair would have been absolutely unthinkable even a few weeks ago.

It was the bitter rivalry between the two that, for example, was at the centre of the espionage scandal which, four years ago, ultimately cost Tidjane Thiam, a former Credit Suisse chief executive, his job.

The two banks watch each other like hawks and constantly compare themselves with the other.

Never was this more the case than in the wake of the global financial crisis.

UBS required a bail-out from Swiss taxpayers while Credit Suisse, which was offered the same terms by the Swiss government, engineered a private-sector solution that appeared to leave it in better shape than many European lenders.

That may in turn have created a sense of hubris at Credit Suisse that ultimately led to the events of this weekend.

For it meant that when other banks began to retrench and dial down their appetite for risk post-2008 - no more, perhaps, than UBS itself - Credit Suisse, under its then chief executive Brady Dougan, continued with comparatively riskier activities.

More than a decade of tripping over every banana skin

In the decade and a half that followed the rescues of the banking crisis, Credit Suisse found itself tripping over every potential banana skin around.

Apart from the corporate espionage scandal, it lost $5.5bn when the hedge fund Archegos Capital collapsed and racked up further losses when the British supply chain finance business Greensill Capital collapsed.

It was fined for making fraudulent loans, nicknamed 'tuna bonds', to the government of Mozambique between 2012 and 2016 and again when Swiss courts ruled it had failed to stop money laundering by Bulgarian drug smugglers.

Other corporate mishaps included the resignation of its former chairman Sir Antonio Horta-Osorio, best known for his distinguished stint as Lloyds Banking Group chief executive, after he was found to have breached COVID protocols.

You get the picture.

This is a bank that has stumbled from one crisis to another in the past 15 years - but the rot arguably set in immediately after the financial crisis because Credit Suisse's management, led by Mr Dougan, failed to recognise that the world had changed.

A risk-taking, buccaneering culture

While the likes of UBS pivoted to less risky activities, such as wealth management, Credit Suisse largely carried on as it had before.

That became problematic when, obliged to set aside more capital in the wake of the financial crisis, Credit Suisse found its competitive position eroded by larger Wall Street giants able to access more capital.

That in turn prompted Credit Suisse to take ever greater risks as its returns began to lag behind those of the Wall Street giants.

To the management of UBS now falls the task that eluded successive Credit Suisse chief executives - stripping away the risk-taking, buccaneering culture at the heart of the bank and making it altogether more boring.

It is a task that is likely to involve heavy job losses in the investment banking division of Credit Suisse, which employs more than 5,000 people in the UK, the majority of them based at London's Canary Wharf.

Tantalising prospect for UBS after the short-term risks

There are plenty of risks involved here for UBS.

The Swiss government has guaranteed losses of up to CHF9bn (£7.94bn) on some portfolios of assets it is taking on from Credit Suisse.

However, those guarantees only kick in after UBS has borne some CHF5bn (£4.41bn) of losses itself. That is why UBS shares fell by as much as 16% shortly after trading began this morning.

What is interesting though is that, as the day has gone on, shares of UBS have clawed back the majority of those losses as investors focus on the longer-term potential benefits.

Because yes, while UBS is taking on a great deal of risk and will see its profits diluted in the short term, it is ultimately going to emerge with a much more powerful position in key markets.

As equity analysts at the investment bank and brokerage Jefferies International told clients this morning: "We think the objective of this transaction, while solving Credit Suisse's situation and associated risks for the system, is to reach a win/win where UBS shareholders also get value out of this deal over time.

"The low price paid (CHF3bn) and significant safety net provided to UBS (with government guarantee) are positive, while UBS's strategy is unchanged."

And that's the point here.

UBS is getting a gigantic banking business for just a fraction of its book value - which stood at CHF41.8bn as of the end of last year - and, more to the point, will boost its market share in key areas.

For example, the combined pair will control 30% of the domestic banking market in Switzerland.

Nowhere is this more the case than in wealth management - the field which UBS has increasingly treated as its priority.

Andrew Haslip, head of wealth management at the data provider Global Data, points out that the combined private bank would have had assets under management of $4trn at the end of last year - or 6.2% of the so-called high net worth market.

He added: "While on paper this move looks like a fairly neat solution with minimal government intervention, it is likely to cause significant competitive issues.

"The combined Swiss bank's nearest private wealth rivals Morgan Stanley (with 2022 global assets under management of $1.7 trillion) and Bank of America (with 2022 global assets under management of $1.4trn) would only equal 78% of its private wealth assets under management taken together."

Julius Baer - the closest Swiss bank competitor - ended 2022 with $458.6 billion.

"These are all impressively large client portfolios but are vastly dwarfed by the combined UBS/Credit Suisse."

In that sense, this deal has shades of the merger between Lloyds Banking Group and HBOS, engineered by the then prime minister, Gordon Brown, at the height of the financial crisis.

The short-term pain for shareholders of Lloyds proved immense and the bank ended up receiving support from UK taxpayers.

Longer term, however, Lloyds benefited from being able to take control of a rival that it would never have been allowed to buy in normal times.

The merger has left the enlarged Lloyds with near-impregnable positions of UK market leadership in an array of banking products, including current accounts, savings accounts and mortgages.

That is the tantalising prospect, longer term, for those UBS shareholders currently cursing their government and the bank's management for denying them a vote on this crucial deal.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Meghan Markle Plans Exclusive Women-Focused Retreat During Australia Visit
Starmer and Trump Hold Strategic Talks on Securing Strait of Hormuz Amid Rising Tensions
Unofficial Australia Visit by Prince Harry and Meghan Expected to Stir Tensions with Royal Circles
Pipeline Attack Cuts Significant Share of Saudi Arabia’s Oil Export Capacity
UK Stocks Rise on Ceasefire Momentum and Renewed Focus on Diplomacy
UK to Hold Further Strategic Talks on Strait of Hormuz Security
Starmer Voices Frustration as Global Tensions Drive Up UK Energy Costs
UK Students Voice Concern Over Proposal for Automatic Military Draft Registration
Rising Volatility Drives Uncertainty in UK Fuel and Petrol Prices
UK Moves to Deploy ‘Skyhammer’ Anti-Drone System to Strengthen Airspace Defense
New Analysis Explores UK Budget Mechanics in ‘Behind the Blue’ Feature
Man Arrested After Four Die in Channel Crossing Tragedy
UK Tightens Immigration Framework with New Sponsor Rules and Fee Increases
UK Foreign Secretary Highlights Impact of Intensified Strikes in Lebanon
UK Urges Inclusion of Lebanon in US-Iran Ceasefire Framework
UK Stocks Ease as Ceasefire Doubts in Middle East Weigh on Investor Confidence
UK Reassesses Cloud Strategy Amid Criticism Over Limited Support Measures
UK Calls for Full and Toll-Free Access Through Strait of Hormuz Amid Rising Tensions
Starmer Signals Strategic Shift for Britain Amid Escalating Iran-Linked Tensions
UK Issues Firm Warning to Russia Over Covert Underwater Military Activity
OpenAI Halts Stargate UK Project, Casting Uncertainty Over Britain’s AI Expansion Plans
Starmer Voices Frustration Over Global Pressures Driving UK Energy Costs Higher
UK Deploys Military Assets to Protect Undersea Cables From Suspected Russian Threat
Canada Aligns With US, UK and Australia as Europe Prepares Major Digital Border Overhaul
Meghan Markle’s Planned Australia Appearance Sparks Fresh Speculation
Starmer Warns Sustained Effort Needed to Ensure US–Iran Ceasefire Holds
UK to Partner with Shipping Industry to Rebuild Confidence in Strait of Hormuz, Cooper Says
UK Interest Rate Expectations Ease Following US–Iran Ceasefire Agreement
Starmer Signals Major Effort Needed to Fully Reopen Strait of Hormuz During Gulf Visit
UK Fuel Prices Face Ongoing Volatility Amid Global Pressures and Domestic Factors
Kanye West’s Planned Italy Festival Appearance Draws Debate After UK Entry Ban
Smuggling Routes Shift Toward Belgium as Migrant Crossings to UK Evolve
Ceasefire Offers Potential Relief for UK Fuel and Food Prices Amid Ongoing Uncertainty
Iran Conflict Raises Questions Over UK’s Global Influence and Military Preparedness
Senator McConnell Visits Kentucky to Highlight Federal Investment in Local Projects
Kanye West Barred from Entering UK as Legal Grounds Come into Focus
UK Denies Visa to Kanye West After Sponsors Withdraw from Wireless Festival
Trump-Era Forest Service Restructuring Leads to Closure of UK Lab Focused on Kentucky Woodland Health
Foreign Students in the UK Describe Harsh Living Conditions and Financial Pressures
Reform UK Proposes Visa Restrictions on Nations Pursuing Reparations Claims
Public Reaction Divides Over UK Decision to Bar Kanye West
Calls Grow for UK to Review US Base Access Following Concerns Over Escalating Rhetoric
UK Indicates It Will Not Permit Use of Its Bases for Potential US Strikes on Iran’s Energy Infrastructure
UK Prime Minister Defends Decision to Bar Kanye West, Questions Festival Booking
UK Accelerates Efforts to Harmonise Medical Technology Rules with United States
Wireless Festival Cancelled After Kanye West Denied Entry to the United Kingdom
Australia’s most decorated living soldier was arrested at Sydney Airport and charged with five counts of war-crime murder for the killing of unarmed Afghan civilians
The CIA’s Secret Technology That Can Find You by Your Heartbeat Successfully Locates Downed Airman
Operation Europe: Trump Deploys Vance to Hungary to Save the EU
King Charles Faces Criticism From Some UK Christians Over Absence of Easter Message
×