London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Jan 27, 2026

Why once 'unthinkable' UBS-Credit Suisse takeover is like merging Liverpool and Manchester United and a win-win

Why once 'unthinkable' UBS-Credit Suisse takeover is like merging Liverpool and Manchester United and a win-win

How Credit Suisse emerged from the financial crisis - via a private sector solution compared to UBS's taxpayer bailout - may have created a sense of hubris that ultimately led to its downfall, Sky's Ian King writes. But the deal to combine the two is like merging Coca-Cola and Pepsi.
To those who do not work in or follow closely the fortunes of the banking sector, it is impossible to neatly sum up the seismic nature of UBS's takeover of its Swiss rival Credit Suisse.

These two are the Coca-Cola and Pepsi of the Swiss banking world, the Liverpool and Manchester United, the McDonald's and Burger King.

Combining the pair would have been absolutely unthinkable even a few weeks ago.

It was the bitter rivalry between the two that, for example, was at the centre of the espionage scandal which, four years ago, ultimately cost Tidjane Thiam, a former Credit Suisse chief executive, his job.

The two banks watch each other like hawks and constantly compare themselves with the other.

Never was this more the case than in the wake of the global financial crisis.

UBS required a bail-out from Swiss taxpayers while Credit Suisse, which was offered the same terms by the Swiss government, engineered a private-sector solution that appeared to leave it in better shape than many European lenders.

That may in turn have created a sense of hubris at Credit Suisse that ultimately led to the events of this weekend.

For it meant that when other banks began to retrench and dial down their appetite for risk post-2008 - no more, perhaps, than UBS itself - Credit Suisse, under its then chief executive Brady Dougan, continued with comparatively riskier activities.

More than a decade of tripping over every banana skin

In the decade and a half that followed the rescues of the banking crisis, Credit Suisse found itself tripping over every potential banana skin around.

Apart from the corporate espionage scandal, it lost $5.5bn when the hedge fund Archegos Capital collapsed and racked up further losses when the British supply chain finance business Greensill Capital collapsed.

It was fined for making fraudulent loans, nicknamed 'tuna bonds', to the government of Mozambique between 2012 and 2016 and again when Swiss courts ruled it had failed to stop money laundering by Bulgarian drug smugglers.

Other corporate mishaps included the resignation of its former chairman Sir Antonio Horta-Osorio, best known for his distinguished stint as Lloyds Banking Group chief executive, after he was found to have breached COVID protocols.

You get the picture.

This is a bank that has stumbled from one crisis to another in the past 15 years - but the rot arguably set in immediately after the financial crisis because Credit Suisse's management, led by Mr Dougan, failed to recognise that the world had changed.

A risk-taking, buccaneering culture

While the likes of UBS pivoted to less risky activities, such as wealth management, Credit Suisse largely carried on as it had before.

That became problematic when, obliged to set aside more capital in the wake of the financial crisis, Credit Suisse found its competitive position eroded by larger Wall Street giants able to access more capital.

That in turn prompted Credit Suisse to take ever greater risks as its returns began to lag behind those of the Wall Street giants.

To the management of UBS now falls the task that eluded successive Credit Suisse chief executives - stripping away the risk-taking, buccaneering culture at the heart of the bank and making it altogether more boring.

It is a task that is likely to involve heavy job losses in the investment banking division of Credit Suisse, which employs more than 5,000 people in the UK, the majority of them based at London's Canary Wharf.

Tantalising prospect for UBS after the short-term risks

There are plenty of risks involved here for UBS.

The Swiss government has guaranteed losses of up to CHF9bn (£7.94bn) on some portfolios of assets it is taking on from Credit Suisse.

However, those guarantees only kick in after UBS has borne some CHF5bn (£4.41bn) of losses itself. That is why UBS shares fell by as much as 16% shortly after trading began this morning.

What is interesting though is that, as the day has gone on, shares of UBS have clawed back the majority of those losses as investors focus on the longer-term potential benefits.

Because yes, while UBS is taking on a great deal of risk and will see its profits diluted in the short term, it is ultimately going to emerge with a much more powerful position in key markets.

As equity analysts at the investment bank and brokerage Jefferies International told clients this morning: "We think the objective of this transaction, while solving Credit Suisse's situation and associated risks for the system, is to reach a win/win where UBS shareholders also get value out of this deal over time.

"The low price paid (CHF3bn) and significant safety net provided to UBS (with government guarantee) are positive, while UBS's strategy is unchanged."

And that's the point here.

UBS is getting a gigantic banking business for just a fraction of its book value - which stood at CHF41.8bn as of the end of last year - and, more to the point, will boost its market share in key areas.

For example, the combined pair will control 30% of the domestic banking market in Switzerland.

Nowhere is this more the case than in wealth management - the field which UBS has increasingly treated as its priority.

Andrew Haslip, head of wealth management at the data provider Global Data, points out that the combined private bank would have had assets under management of $4trn at the end of last year - or 6.2% of the so-called high net worth market.

He added: "While on paper this move looks like a fairly neat solution with minimal government intervention, it is likely to cause significant competitive issues.

"The combined Swiss bank's nearest private wealth rivals Morgan Stanley (with 2022 global assets under management of $1.7 trillion) and Bank of America (with 2022 global assets under management of $1.4trn) would only equal 78% of its private wealth assets under management taken together."

Julius Baer - the closest Swiss bank competitor - ended 2022 with $458.6 billion.

"These are all impressively large client portfolios but are vastly dwarfed by the combined UBS/Credit Suisse."

In that sense, this deal has shades of the merger between Lloyds Banking Group and HBOS, engineered by the then prime minister, Gordon Brown, at the height of the financial crisis.

The short-term pain for shareholders of Lloyds proved immense and the bank ended up receiving support from UK taxpayers.

Longer term, however, Lloyds benefited from being able to take control of a rival that it would never have been allowed to buy in normal times.

The merger has left the enlarged Lloyds with near-impregnable positions of UK market leadership in an array of banking products, including current accounts, savings accounts and mortgages.

That is the tantalising prospect, longer term, for those UBS shareholders currently cursing their government and the bank's management for denying them a vote on this crucial deal.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Banks Pledge £11 Billion Lending Package to Help Firms Expand Overseas
Suella Braverman Defects to Reform UK, Accusing Conservatives of Betrayal on Core Policies
Melania Trump Documentary Sees Limited Box Office Traction in UK Cinemas
Meta and EssilorLuxottica Ray-Ban Smart Glasses and the Non-Consensual Public Recording Economy
WhatsApp Develops New Meta AI Features to Enhance User Control
Germany Considers Gold Reserves Amidst Rising Tensions with the U.S.
Michael Schumacher Shows Significant Improvement in Health Status
Greenland’s NATO Stress Test: Coercion, Credibility, and the New Arctic Bargaining Game
Diego Garcia and the Chagos Dispute: When Decolonization Collides With Alliance Power
Trump Claims “Total” U.S. Access to Greenland as NATO Weighs Arctic Basing Rights and Deterrence
Air France and KLM Suspend Multiple Middle East Routes as Regional Tensions Disrupt Aviation
U.S. winter storm triggers 13,000-plus flight cancellations and 160,000 power outages
Poland delays euro adoption as Domański cites $1tn economy and zloty advantage
White House: Trump warns Canada of 100% tariff if Carney finalizes China trade deal
PLA opens CMC probe of Zhang Youxia, Liu Zhenli over Xi authority and discipline violations
ICE and DHS immigration raids in Minneapolis: the use-of-force accountability crisis in mass deportation enforcement
UK’s Starmer and Trump Agree on Urgent Need to Bolster Arctic Security
Starmer Breaks Diplomatic Restraint With Firm Rebuke of Trump, Seizing Chance to Advocate for Europe
UK Finance Minister Reeves to Join Starmer on China Visit to Bolster Trade and Economic Ties
Prince Harry Says Sacrifices of NATO Forces in Afghanistan Deserve ‘Respect’ After Trump Remarks
Barron Trump Emerges as Key Remote Witness in UK Assault and Rape Trial
Nigel Farage Attended Davos 2026 Using HP Trust Delegate Pass Linked to Sasan Ghandehari
Gold Jumps More Than 8% in a Week as the Dollar Slides Amid Greenland Tariff Dispute
BlackRock Executive Rick Rieder Emerges as Leading Contender to Succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair
Boston Dynamics Atlas humanoid robot and LG CLOiD home robot: the platform lock-in fight to control Physical AI
United States under President Donald Trump completes withdrawal from the World Health Organization: health sovereignty versus global outbreak early-warning access
FBI and U.S. prosecutors vs Ryan Wedding’s transnational cocaine-smuggling network: the fight over witness-killing and cross-border enforcement
Trump Administration’s Iran Military Buildup and Sanctions Campaign Puts Deterrence Credibility on the Line
Apple and OpenAI Chase Screenless AI Wearables as the Post-iPhone Interface Battle Heats Up
Tech Brief: AI Compute, Chips, and Platform Power Moves Driving Today’s Market Narrative
NATO’s Stress Test Under Trump: Alliance Credibility, Burden-Sharing, and the Fight Over Strategic Territory
OpenAI’s Money Problem: Explosive Growth, Even Faster Costs, and a Race to Stay Ahead
Trump Reverses Course and Criticises UK-Mauritius Chagos Islands Agreement
Elizabeth Hurley Tells UK Court of ‘Brutal’ Invasion of Privacy in Phone Hacking Case
UK Bond Yields Climb as Report Fuels Speculation Over Andy Burnham’s Return to Parliament
America’s Venezuela Oil Grip Meets China’s Demand: Market Power, Legal Shockwaves, and the New Rules of Energy Leverage
TikTok’s U.S. Escape Plan: National Security Firewall or Political Theater With a Price Tag?
Trump’s Board of Peace: Breakthrough Diplomacy or a Hostile Takeover of Global Order?
Trump’s Board of Peace: Breakthrough Diplomacy or a Hostile Takeover of Global Order?
The Greenland Gambit: Economic Genius or Political Farce?
The Greenland Gambit: Economic Genius or Political Farce?
The Greenland Gambit: Economic Genius or Political Farce?
Will AI Finally Make Blue-Collar Workers Rich—or Is This Just Elite Tech Spin?
Prince William to Make Official Visit to Saudi Arabia in February
Prince Harry Breaks Down in London Court, Says UK Tabloids Have Made Meghan Markle’s Life ‘Absolute Misery’
Malin + Goetz UK Business Enters Administration, All Stores Close
EU and UK Reject Trump’s Greenland-Linked Tariff Threats and Pledge Unified Response
UK Deepfake Crackdown Puts Intense Pressure on Musk’s Grok AI After Surge in Non-Consensual Explicit Images
Prince Harry Becomes Emotional in London Court, Invokes Memory of Princess Diana in Testimony Against UK Tabloids
UK Inflation Rises Unexpectedly but Interest Rate Cuts Still Seen as Likely
×