London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Sep 28, 2026

Ukraine war: Who leaked top secret US documents - and why?

Ukraine war: Who leaked top secret US documents - and why?

What to make of the dozens of classified US Defence Department documents - maps, charts and photographs - now circulating on the internet?

Complete with timelines and dozens of impenetrable military acronyms, the documents, some of them marked "top secret", paint a detailed picture of the war in Ukraine.

They tell of the casualties suffered on both sides, the military vulnerabilities of each and, crucially, what their relative strengths are likely to be when Ukraine decides to launch its much-anticipated spring offensive.

How real are these printed pages, unfolded and photographed, possibly on someone's dining room table? And what do they tell us, or the Kremlin, that we did not already know?

First things first: this is the biggest leak of secret American information on the war in Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion 14 months ago. Some of the documents are as much as six weeks old, but the implications are huge.

Pentagon officials are quoted as saying the documents are real.

Information on at least one of them appears to have been crudely altered in a later version, but out of a dump of as many as 100 documents, that seems a relatively minor detail.

BBC News has reviewed more than 20 of the documents. They include detailed accounts of the training and equipment being provided to Ukraine as it puts together a dozen new brigades for an offensive that could begin within weeks.

It says when the brigades will be ready and lists all the tanks, armoured vehicles and artillery pieces that are being provided by Ukraine's Western allies.

But it notes that "equipment delivery times will impact training and readiness".

Ukrainian soldiers fire a German howitzer Panzerhaubitze 2000


One map includes a "mud-frozen ground timeline", assessing ground conditions across eastern Ukraine as spring progresses.

After a winter that has tested Ukraine's air defences to the limit, there's also a sobering analysis of Kyiv's diminishing air defence capability, as it seeks to balance its limited resources to protect civilians, critical infrastructure and its frontline troops.

Not only do the leaked documents say a lot about the state of Ukraine's military - they also talk about some of Washington's other allies. From Israel to South Korea, the documents reveal internal debates those countries are having about Ukraine and other sensitive issues.

Some of the documents are marked top secret, others to be shared only with America's closest intelligence allies.


How much of this is new?


A lot of the detail here is familiar. There's just a lot more of it, and it's all in one place.

Take casualty figures. It comes as little surprise to learn that the US estimates that between 189,500 and 223,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded.

The equivalent figure for Ukraine's losses - between 124,500 and 131,000 - is also in line with ballpark figures briefed to journalists in recent weeks.

In both cases, the Pentagon says it has "low confidence" in the figures, due to gaps in information, operational security and deliberate attempts, probably by both sides, to mislead.

Tellingly, this is the one place where attempts have been made to alter the documents to make it look as if Ukraine is experiencing the worst casualties.

A version which appeared on a pro-Russian Telegram site took the number of Ukrainians "killed in action" ("16k-17.5k") and put those on the Russian ledger, while flipping the numbers on the Ukrainian side so they read "61k - 71.5k".

All of which brings us to the question of who leaked the documents, and why?


'Here, have some leaked documents'


The story of how the documents found their way from the messaging platform Discord, to 4Chan and Telegram, has already been told by Aric Toler of the investigative open source intelligence group Bellingcat.

Mr Toler says it has not yet been possible to uncover the original source of the leaks, but charts their appearance on a messaging platform popular with gamers in early March.

On 4 March, following an argument about the war in Ukraine on a Discord server frequented by players of the computer game Minecraft, one user wrote "here, have some leaked documents", before posting 10 of them.

It is an unusual, but hardly unique form of leak.

In 2019, ahead of the UK general election, documents relating to US-UK trade relations appeared on Reddit, 4Chan and other sites.

At the time, Reddit said the unredacted documents had originated in Russia.

In another case, last year, players of the online game War Thunder repeatedly posted sensitive military documents, apparently in an effort to win arguments among themselves.

The latest leak is more sensitive, and potentially damaging.

Ukraine has zealously guarded its "operational security" and cannot be happy that such sensitive material has appeared at such a critical moment.

Ukraine's spring offensive could represent a make-or-break moment for the Zelensky government to alter dynamics on the battlefield and set conditions for peace talks later.

In Kyiv, officials have spoken about a possible disinformation campaign by Russia.

Other military bloggers have suggested the opposite: that it is all part of a Western plot to mislead Russian commanders.

Crucially, there is nothing in the documents leaked so far that points to the direction or thrust of Ukraine's counter-offensive.

The Kremlin ought to have a pretty good idea already of the scope of Ukraine's preparations (although Moscow's intelligence failures have been much in evidence throughout the war), but Kyiv needs to keep its enemy guessing about how the campaign will unfold, in order to maximise the chances of success.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
RNLI Chief Executive Condemns Misinformation and Abuse Targeting Volunteer Crews
Metropolitan Police Charge Swindon Man with Assisting Foreign Intelligence Services
British Intelligence Report Warns Environmental Collapse Threatens Global Defense Infrastructure
Conservative Party Rejects New Taxes to Fund UK Social Care Reforms
Labour Government Signals Intent to Ease Residency Restrictions for Foreign Care Workers
Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Støre Meet to Strengthen North Atlantic Defense
UK Government Plans to Revive Equity Loan Scheme to Assist First-Time Home Buyers
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Pledges Radical Reform for UK Utilities and Social Care
UK Treasury Prepares Difficult Autumn Budget Amid High Debt and Energy Volatility
Civil Aviation Authority Launches Review of Air Traffic Systems Following Digital Failure
X Reports First Increase in UK Revenues Following Advertiser Boycott
Shetland Islands Council Approves £400 Million Inter-Island Tunnel Project
Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband Warns Iran Against Hostile Activities on British Soil
UK Ministers Concede Chagos Islands Sovereignty Agreement Terminated After US Opposition
More in Common Poll Projects Hung Parliament with Labour Leading and Reform UK Gains
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Defends Economic Strategy as Public Finances Face Headwinds
Tony Blair Urges Government to Set Long-Term Goal of Rejoining the European Union
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Pledges Universal Free Social Care Funded Through General Taxation
UK Diesel and Petrol Prices Surge Near All-Time Highs Amid Middle East Energy Volatility
Analysis of Reform UK conference highlights deep political divisions over welfare and immigration
Bangladesh garment exports to the United Kingdom reach $915 million in early fiscal year
Royal Navy begins sea trials for new HMS Agamemnon hunter-killer submarine
New report suggests UK data centre expansion will create far fewer jobs than predicted
Major weekend closures announced for London Underground Piccadilly and Central lines
NHS leaders call for emergency winter funding to combat staffing shortages and rising illness
Far-right activist Daniel Thomas charged following alleged slashing of migrant dinghy
Home Secretary orders urgent review of border security following rise in small boat crossings
Prime Minister Andy Burnham to address Labour Party conference amid calls for long-term infrastructure plan
UK Treasury and Bank of England warn of rising inflation risks amid Middle East tensions
Royal Navy Diving Squadron Honoured for Global Bomb Disposal Efforts
UK State Pension Set to Approach £13,000 Per Year Under Triple-Lock
Rolls-Royce Wins Multi-Million-Pound Engine Contract with Philippine Airlines
TfL Questions Future of Heathrow Express Amid Proposed £33 Billion Expansion
Ed Miliband Warns Iran Against Hostile Operations on British Soil
S&P Global Manufacturing Index Signals Stabilization Amid Rising Fuel Costs
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Launches National Centre for Information Defence
UK Food and Drink Trade Deficit Surges to £21.1 Billion
OECD Upgrades United Kingdom Economic Growth Forecast to 1.1 Percent
Bank of England Faces Policy Challenges as Energy Prices Push Inflation Projections Higher
IMF Urges UK and Major Economies to Reduce Public Borrowing and Debt
UK Government Concedes Chagos Islands Sovereignty Deal is Dead Following Trump Opposition
Prosecutors Seek More Than 10 Years in Prison for Former DUP Leader Jeffrey Donaldson
UK Provided £66 Million in Emergency Security Funding for Mosques After Southport Disorder
Manston Inquiry Examines Role of Government Decisions in 2022 Overcrowding Crisis
Justice System Capacity Pressures Raise Concerns Over Release of Sex Offenders
UK Food and Drink Trade Deficit Widens to Record £21.1 Billion
UK Releases Climate Security Findings Previously Withheld Under Starmer
TalkTalk Races to Sell Consumer and Broadband Businesses as Administration Threat Looms
NHS Bodies Impose Minimum Two-Year Waits for ADHD and Autism Assessments
Andy Burnham Pledges £210 Million to Revive Boarded-Up High Streets
×