London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Jul 09, 2026

UK inflation could hit 18% next year on rising energy bills, experts warn

UK inflation could hit 18% next year on rising energy bills, experts warn

Rising energy prices could push UK inflation as high as 18% next year, the highest rate in nearly 50 years, economic analysts have predicted.

Inflation - the rate at which prices rise - hit 10.1% in July, five times the Bank of England's (BoE) target.

Investment bank Citi said inflation was "entering the stratosphere" and could rise to 18%, while the Resolution Foundation said it could reach 18.3%.

The BoE predicted inflation will rise to more than 13% in the coming months.

Citi's forecast - which would be the UK's highest rate of inflation since 1976 - comes ahead of Friday's energy price cap announcement on the maximum amount suppliers can charge households for gas and electricity from October.

The investment bank's forecast is at the higher end of the scale compared to those made by other economists, such as EY-Parthenon which has forecast inflation to be at 15.4%.

However, economists at the Resolution Foundation think tank told the BBC that based on the current price cap predictions and the latest data on the rate prices are rising at, inflation could go as high as 18.3%.

Citi's chief UK economist, Benjamin Nabarro, said affordability concerns were "growing more deafening by the day".

"The question now is what policy may do to offset the impact on both inflation and the real economy," he said.

Consultancy Cornwall Insight now expects a typical household energy bill to £3,554 a year from October. This is slightly below its previous forecast.

However, it now expects energy regulator Ofgem to announce a price cap in January of £4,650, which is higher than its previous estimate of £4,266.

Its calculations reflected a 15% increase in wholesale prices in the last week, Cornwall said.

But the "highly volatile nature of the market" means these figures are expected to go up and down over the next couple of months, it added.

From October, all UK households will see their energy bill reduced by £400 through monthly instalments over six months, with a reduction of £66 in October and November, and of £67 a month from December to March 2023.

Eight million low-income households have already begun to get support for the rising cost of living, with the first instalment of payments totalling £650 hitting bank accounts in July.

But Citi said, without further government support, the price cap could hit £3,717 in October and £4,567 in January, reaching £5,816 in April.


Octopus Energy chief executive Greg Jackson told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that if the price of beer had risen as much as gas prices, buying a pint would cost £25.

"People don't know what a therm is, but, underneath it, the price per therm has gone from 60p to around £5 at the moment and that's what's passing through to customers if we don't do something," he said.

Sarah Coles, a senior personal finance analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said there were 10 food groups that have seen their prices rise more than 18.6% in the past year, including bread, milk, pasta and butter.

"Inflation at 18.6% would push millions of people into dire straits," she said.

"And because these horrible price hikes are being driven by the essentials people need to stay alive - like food and heat - it's going to hit those on lower incomes hardest, who've got nothing left to give."

On Monday European gas prices rose sharply due to supply fears, after Russian energy firm Gazprom announced it would shut down the Nord Stream 1 pipeline - the main gas export route to Germany - to complete three days of unplanned maintenance.

British gas for immediate delivery was also up 37% to 503p per therm.

Oil and gas analysts at Investec said, in a briefing note, that it anticipated UK gas prices to remain elevated if Russia continues to restrict supplies to Europe.

"This is remarkable in summer, when gas demand for heating is at its lowest," its analysts said.

"The outlook for UK/European gas prices are to remain high - even in 2025 it is three-times the 10-year average."


Predicting the peak of inflation levels has been a mug's game in the last nine months.

The Bank of England originally predicted last year it would peak at 5%, then 10, then 13. HSBC recently revised its forecasts to 14% and on Monday global investment bank Citi set a new high watermark of 18%.

Almost all of this inflation of inflation estimates (deliberate) has been caused by rocketing gas prices, which find their way into almost everything we buy.

What is clear is that the forces that have propelled prices higher look like they are going to get worse before they get better.

The government has previously said there would be no new policies before a new prime minister is in place.

The new Conservative Party leader will be announced on 5 September and will face immediate pressure to tackle the nation's energy bills.

The current favourite, Liz Truss, has promised tax cuts - and recently hinted at direct financial help for hard-pressed households.

Her rival, Rishi Sunak, has said he would introduce more targeted support for households, and has promised to reduce VAT on domestic energy bills from 5% to zero.

The energy price cap is the maximum amount suppliers can charge customers in England, Scotland and Wales for each unit of energy. The figure is based on how much gas and electricity a typical customer uses, so each household's bill will vary.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Tech Pulse: The Future of AI and Screen Culture
Global News Briefing: Escalating Geopolitical Tensions and Corporate Shakeups
Global News Brief: Escalating Conflicts, Public Health Crises, and World Cup Drama
Rare Early Copy of US Declaration of Independence Found in British Archive
Cornish Language Revival Gains Momentum Through Schools and Community Programs
UK Authorities Face Criticism Over Prisoner Early Release Safeguards
Clacton By-Election Set After Nigel Farage Resigns Seat to Trigger Contest
Government Agencies Review Long-Term Fiscal Risks from Aging Population and Low Productivity
UK Heatwaves Expose Pressure on Public Transport and Housing Infrastructure
UK Government Prepares Welfare Review Amid Debate Over Personal Independence Payment Reform
UK Government Expands Rapid Endometriosis Testing Across NHS Services
Vistry Group Issues Profit Warning as UK Housing Market Faces Continued Pressure
Virgin Media Receives Record Twenty-Eight Million Pound Fine Over Contract Cancellation Failures
Office for Budget Responsibility Warns UK Public Finances Face Long-Term Pressure
UK Watchdog Warns Regional Income Gap Has Barely Narrowed in Three Decades
IMF Raises United Kingdom Growth Forecast as Inflation and Energy Pressures Ease
UK Government Launches Regulatory Reform Bill to Speed Up Commercialization of Innovation
Prince Harry Loses Privacy Lawsuit Against Daily Mail Publisher After High Court Rejects Claims
Federal Financial Framework Shifts as Treasury Launches Universal Savings Program for Minors
Jet2 Reports Strong Summer Travel Demand as Bookings Rise Seven Percent
Prince Harry Loses High Court Privacy Case Against Daily Mail Publisher
British Universities Warn Against Potential European Union Tuition Fee Changes
Heal Fertility Clinic Investigated After Embryo Biopsy Sample Mix-Up
Resolution Foundation Warns Regional Income Divide Has Barely Improved Since 1997
British Markets Remain Cautious as Middle East Tensions Rise and Government Transition Nears
Andy Burnham Poised to Become United Kingdom Prime Minister in Expected Political Transition
Nigel Farage Resigns as Member of Parliament Ahead of By-Election Amid Funding Investigation
Trump Declares Iran Ceasefire Over After Renewed Attacks on United States Bases
French Court Allows Le Pen to Run for Presidency, but with an Electronic Tag: "I Will Appeal, and I Will Run"
$1.4 Trillion: The Lawsuit That Could Crush Meta
Europe's Growing Struggle with Extreme Heat and Air Conditioning
UK Daily Briefing: Legal Developments and Social Issues
Political Turmoil and Rising Costs
Anthropic Reengineers Agentic Architecture to Shift Autonomous Workplace Automation to the Cloud
Logic Flaw in Windows 11 Permission Architecture Silently Consumes Hundreds of Gigabytes of Local Storage
Apple Advances Late-Stage Operating Systems with Fourth Beta Deployments
Global Crisis Alert: Escalating Middle East Tensions and UK Political Upheaval
UK Parliament Pushes for Greater Domestic Control Over Critical Technologies
UK Parliament Warns Trade Fair and Exhibition Industry Is Losing Global Competitiveness
Police Launch Murder Investigation After Mother and Two Children Found Dead Near Bedford
British Chambers of Commerce Survey Shows Business Confidence Falls to Post-Pandemic Low
UK Parliament Report Warns Britain Risks Falling Behind in Artificial Intelligence Sovereignty
Office for Budget Responsibility Warns United Kingdom Faces Long-Term Fiscal Pressures
Nigel Farage Resigns as Member of Parliament Amid Financial Scrutiny and Triggers By-Election
Deep Purple Has Released Its Best Album in Decades
UK MPs Criticise Student Loan System as Potentially Mis-Sold to Millions of Borrowers
Policy Groups Propose Bank of England-Backed Solar Loan Scheme for Millions of Homes
UK Health Agency Issues Amber Heat Alerts Across Six Regions as Temperatures Rise
Royal Air Force F-35 Jets Conduct First High North Air Policing Missions From Aircraft Carrier
Major UK Companies Join Government Cybersecurity Pledge Amid Rising Digital Threats
×