London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Sunday, Nov 23, 2025

UK inflation could hit 18% next year on rising energy bills, experts warn

UK inflation could hit 18% next year on rising energy bills, experts warn

Rising energy prices could push UK inflation as high as 18% next year, the highest rate in nearly 50 years, economic analysts have predicted.

Inflation - the rate at which prices rise - hit 10.1% in July, five times the Bank of England's (BoE) target.

Investment bank Citi said inflation was "entering the stratosphere" and could rise to 18%, while the Resolution Foundation said it could reach 18.3%.

The BoE predicted inflation will rise to more than 13% in the coming months.

Citi's forecast - which would be the UK's highest rate of inflation since 1976 - comes ahead of Friday's energy price cap announcement on the maximum amount suppliers can charge households for gas and electricity from October.

The investment bank's forecast is at the higher end of the scale compared to those made by other economists, such as EY-Parthenon which has forecast inflation to be at 15.4%.

However, economists at the Resolution Foundation think tank told the BBC that based on the current price cap predictions and the latest data on the rate prices are rising at, inflation could go as high as 18.3%.

Citi's chief UK economist, Benjamin Nabarro, said affordability concerns were "growing more deafening by the day".

"The question now is what policy may do to offset the impact on both inflation and the real economy," he said.

Consultancy Cornwall Insight now expects a typical household energy bill to £3,554 a year from October. This is slightly below its previous forecast.

However, it now expects energy regulator Ofgem to announce a price cap in January of £4,650, which is higher than its previous estimate of £4,266.

Its calculations reflected a 15% increase in wholesale prices in the last week, Cornwall said.

But the "highly volatile nature of the market" means these figures are expected to go up and down over the next couple of months, it added.

From October, all UK households will see their energy bill reduced by £400 through monthly instalments over six months, with a reduction of £66 in October and November, and of £67 a month from December to March 2023.

Eight million low-income households have already begun to get support for the rising cost of living, with the first instalment of payments totalling £650 hitting bank accounts in July.

But Citi said, without further government support, the price cap could hit £3,717 in October and £4,567 in January, reaching £5,816 in April.


Octopus Energy chief executive Greg Jackson told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that if the price of beer had risen as much as gas prices, buying a pint would cost £25.

"People don't know what a therm is, but, underneath it, the price per therm has gone from 60p to around £5 at the moment and that's what's passing through to customers if we don't do something," he said.

Sarah Coles, a senior personal finance analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said there were 10 food groups that have seen their prices rise more than 18.6% in the past year, including bread, milk, pasta and butter.

"Inflation at 18.6% would push millions of people into dire straits," she said.

"And because these horrible price hikes are being driven by the essentials people need to stay alive - like food and heat - it's going to hit those on lower incomes hardest, who've got nothing left to give."

On Monday European gas prices rose sharply due to supply fears, after Russian energy firm Gazprom announced it would shut down the Nord Stream 1 pipeline - the main gas export route to Germany - to complete three days of unplanned maintenance.

British gas for immediate delivery was also up 37% to 503p per therm.

Oil and gas analysts at Investec said, in a briefing note, that it anticipated UK gas prices to remain elevated if Russia continues to restrict supplies to Europe.

"This is remarkable in summer, when gas demand for heating is at its lowest," its analysts said.

"The outlook for UK/European gas prices are to remain high - even in 2025 it is three-times the 10-year average."


Predicting the peak of inflation levels has been a mug's game in the last nine months.

The Bank of England originally predicted last year it would peak at 5%, then 10, then 13. HSBC recently revised its forecasts to 14% and on Monday global investment bank Citi set a new high watermark of 18%.

Almost all of this inflation of inflation estimates (deliberate) has been caused by rocketing gas prices, which find their way into almost everything we buy.

What is clear is that the forces that have propelled prices higher look like they are going to get worse before they get better.

The government has previously said there would be no new policies before a new prime minister is in place.

The new Conservative Party leader will be announced on 5 September and will face immediate pressure to tackle the nation's energy bills.

The current favourite, Liz Truss, has promised tax cuts - and recently hinted at direct financial help for hard-pressed households.

Her rival, Rishi Sunak, has said he would introduce more targeted support for households, and has promised to reduce VAT on domestic energy bills from 5% to zero.

The energy price cap is the maximum amount suppliers can charge customers in England, Scotland and Wales for each unit of energy. The figure is based on how much gas and electricity a typical customer uses, so each household's bill will vary.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Johnson Blasts ‘Incoherent’ Covid Inquiry Findings Amid Report’s Harsh Critique of His Government
Lord Rothermere Secures £500 Million Deal to Acquire Telegraph Titles
Maduro Tightens Security Measures as U.S. Strike Threat Intensifies
U.S. Envoys Deliver Ultimatum to Ukraine: Sign Peace Deal by Thursday or Risk Losing American Support
Zelenskyy Signals Progress Toward Ending the War: ‘One of the Hardest Moments in History’ (end of his business model?)
U.S. Issues Alert Declaring Venezuelan Airspace a Hazard Due to Escalating Security Conditions
The U.S. State Department Announces That Mass Migration Constitutes an Existential Threat to Western Civilization and Undermines the Stability of Key American Allies
Students Challenge AI-Driven Teaching at University of Staffordshire
Pikeville Medical Center Partners with UK’s Golisano Children’s Network to Expand Pediatric Care
Germany, France and UK Confirm Full Support for Ukraine in US-Backed Security Plan
UK Low-Traffic Neighbourhoods Face Rising Backlash as Pandemic Schemes Unravel
UK Records Coldest Night of Autumn as Sub-Zero Conditions Sweep the Country
UK at Risk of Losing International Doctors as Workforce Exodus Grows, Regulator Warns
ASU Launches ASU London, Extending Its Innovation Brand to the UK Education Market
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer to Visit China in January as Diplomatic Reset Accelerates
Google Launches Voluntary Buyouts for UK Staff Amid AI-Driven Company Realignment
UK braces for freezing snap as snow and ice warnings escalate
Majority of UK Novelists Fear AI Could Displace Their Work, Cambridge Study Finds
UK's Carrier Strike Group Achieves Full Operational Capability During NATO Drill in Mediterranean
Trump and Mamdani to Meet at the White House: “The Communist Asked”
Nvidia Again Beats Forecasts, Shares Jump in After-Hours Trading
Wintry Conditions Persist Along UK Coasts After Up to Seven Centimetres of Snow
UK Inflation Eases to 3.6 % in October, Opening Door for Rate Cut
UK Accelerates Munitions Factory Build-Out to Reinforce Warfighting Readiness
UK Consumer Optimism Plunges Ahead of November Budget
A Decade of Innovation Stagnation at Apple: The Cook Era Critique
Caribbean Reparations Commission Seeks ‘Mutually Beneficial’ Justice from UK
EU Insists UK Must Contribute Financially for Access to Electricity Market and Broader Ties
UK to Outlaw Live-Event Ticket Resales Above Face Value
President Donald Trump Hosts Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at White House to Seal Major Defence and Investment Deals
German Entertainment Icons Alice and Ellen Kessler Die Together at Age 89
UK Unveils Sweeping Asylum Reforms with 20-Year Settlement Wait and Conditional Status
UK Orders Twitter Hacker to Repay £4.1 Million Following 2020 High-Profile Breach
Popeyes UK Eyes Century Mark as Fried-Chicken Chain Accelerates Roll-out
Two-thirds of UK nurses report working while unwell amid staffing crisis
Britain to Reform Human-Rights Laws in Sweeping Asylum Policy Overhaul
Nearly Half of Job Losses Under Labour Government Affect UK Youth
UK Chancellor Reeves Eyes High-Value Home Levy in Budget to Raise Tens of Billions
UK Urges Poland to Choose Swedish Submarines in Multi-Billion € Defence Bid
US Border Czar Tom Homan Declares UK No Longer a ‘Friend’ Amid Intelligence Rift
UK Announces Reversal of Income Tax Hike Plans Ahead of Budget
Starmer Faces Mounting Turmoil as Leaked Briefings Ignite Leadership Plot Rumours
UK Commentator Sami Hamdi Returns Home After US Visa Revocation and Detention
UK Eyes Denmark-Style Asylum Rules in Major Migration Shift
UK Signals Intelligence Freeze Amid US Maritime Drug-Strike Campaign
TikTok Awards UK & Ireland 2025 Celebrates Top Creators Including Max Klymenko as Creator of the Year
UK Growth Nearly Stalls at 0.1% in Q3 as Cyberattack Halts Car Production
Apple Denied Permission to Appeal UK App Store Ruling, Faces Over £1bn Liability
UK Chooses Wylfa for First Small Modular Reactors, Drawing Sharp U.S. Objection
Starmer Faces Growing Labour Backlash as Briefing Sparks Authority Crisis
×