London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Jan 20, 2026

UK inflation could hit 18% next year on rising energy bills, experts warn

UK inflation could hit 18% next year on rising energy bills, experts warn

Rising energy prices could push UK inflation as high as 18% next year, the highest rate in nearly 50 years, economic analysts have predicted.

Inflation - the rate at which prices rise - hit 10.1% in July, five times the Bank of England's (BoE) target.

Investment bank Citi said inflation was "entering the stratosphere" and could rise to 18%, while the Resolution Foundation said it could reach 18.3%.

The BoE predicted inflation will rise to more than 13% in the coming months.

Citi's forecast - which would be the UK's highest rate of inflation since 1976 - comes ahead of Friday's energy price cap announcement on the maximum amount suppliers can charge households for gas and electricity from October.

The investment bank's forecast is at the higher end of the scale compared to those made by other economists, such as EY-Parthenon which has forecast inflation to be at 15.4%.

However, economists at the Resolution Foundation think tank told the BBC that based on the current price cap predictions and the latest data on the rate prices are rising at, inflation could go as high as 18.3%.

Citi's chief UK economist, Benjamin Nabarro, said affordability concerns were "growing more deafening by the day".

"The question now is what policy may do to offset the impact on both inflation and the real economy," he said.

Consultancy Cornwall Insight now expects a typical household energy bill to £3,554 a year from October. This is slightly below its previous forecast.

However, it now expects energy regulator Ofgem to announce a price cap in January of £4,650, which is higher than its previous estimate of £4,266.

Its calculations reflected a 15% increase in wholesale prices in the last week, Cornwall said.

But the "highly volatile nature of the market" means these figures are expected to go up and down over the next couple of months, it added.

From October, all UK households will see their energy bill reduced by £400 through monthly instalments over six months, with a reduction of £66 in October and November, and of £67 a month from December to March 2023.

Eight million low-income households have already begun to get support for the rising cost of living, with the first instalment of payments totalling £650 hitting bank accounts in July.

But Citi said, without further government support, the price cap could hit £3,717 in October and £4,567 in January, reaching £5,816 in April.


Octopus Energy chief executive Greg Jackson told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that if the price of beer had risen as much as gas prices, buying a pint would cost £25.

"People don't know what a therm is, but, underneath it, the price per therm has gone from 60p to around £5 at the moment and that's what's passing through to customers if we don't do something," he said.

Sarah Coles, a senior personal finance analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said there were 10 food groups that have seen their prices rise more than 18.6% in the past year, including bread, milk, pasta and butter.

"Inflation at 18.6% would push millions of people into dire straits," she said.

"And because these horrible price hikes are being driven by the essentials people need to stay alive - like food and heat - it's going to hit those on lower incomes hardest, who've got nothing left to give."

On Monday European gas prices rose sharply due to supply fears, after Russian energy firm Gazprom announced it would shut down the Nord Stream 1 pipeline - the main gas export route to Germany - to complete three days of unplanned maintenance.

British gas for immediate delivery was also up 37% to 503p per therm.

Oil and gas analysts at Investec said, in a briefing note, that it anticipated UK gas prices to remain elevated if Russia continues to restrict supplies to Europe.

"This is remarkable in summer, when gas demand for heating is at its lowest," its analysts said.

"The outlook for UK/European gas prices are to remain high - even in 2025 it is three-times the 10-year average."


Predicting the peak of inflation levels has been a mug's game in the last nine months.

The Bank of England originally predicted last year it would peak at 5%, then 10, then 13. HSBC recently revised its forecasts to 14% and on Monday global investment bank Citi set a new high watermark of 18%.

Almost all of this inflation of inflation estimates (deliberate) has been caused by rocketing gas prices, which find their way into almost everything we buy.

What is clear is that the forces that have propelled prices higher look like they are going to get worse before they get better.

The government has previously said there would be no new policies before a new prime minister is in place.

The new Conservative Party leader will be announced on 5 September and will face immediate pressure to tackle the nation's energy bills.

The current favourite, Liz Truss, has promised tax cuts - and recently hinted at direct financial help for hard-pressed households.

Her rival, Rishi Sunak, has said he would introduce more targeted support for households, and has promised to reduce VAT on domestic energy bills from 5% to zero.

The energy price cap is the maximum amount suppliers can charge customers in England, Scotland and Wales for each unit of energy. The figure is based on how much gas and electricity a typical customer uses, so each household's bill will vary.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Starmer Steps Back from Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’ Amid Strained US–UK Relations
Prince Harry’s Lawyer Tells UK Court Daily Mail Was Complicit in Unlawful Privacy Invasions
UK Government Approves China’s ‘Mega Embassy’ in London Amid Debate Over Security and Diplomacy
Trump Cites UK’s Chagos Islands Sovereignty Shift as Justification for Pursuing Greenland Acquisition
UK Government Weighs Australia-Style Social Media Ban for Under-Sixteens Amid Rising Concern Over Online Harm
Trump Aides Say U.S. Has Discussed Offering Asylum to British Jews Amid Growing Antisemitism Concerns
UK Seeks Diplomatic De-escalation with Trump Over Greenland Tariff Threat
Prince Harry Returns to London as High Court Trial Begins Over Alleged Illegal Tabloid Snooping
High-Speed Train Collision in Southern Spain Kills at Least Twenty-One and Injures Scores
Meghan Markle May Return to the U.K. This Summer as Security Review Advances
Trump’s Greenland Tariff Threat Sparks EU Response and Risks Deep Transatlantic Rift
Prince Harry’s High Court Battle With Daily Mail Publisher Begins in London
Trump’s Tariff Escalation Presents Complex Challenges for the UK Economy
UK Prime Minister Starmer Rebukes Trump’s Greenland Tariff Strategy as Transatlantic Tensions Rise
Prince Harry’s Last Press Case in UK Court Signals Potential Turning Point in Media and Royal Relations
OpenAI to Begin Advertising in ChatGPT in Strategic Shift to New Revenue Model
GDP Growth Remains the Most Telling Barometer of Britain’s Economic Health
Prince William and Kate Middleton Stay Away as Prince Harry Visits London Amid Lingering Rift
Britain Braces for Colder Weather and Snow Risk as Temperatures Set to Plunge
Mass Protests Erupt as UK Nears Decision on China’s ‘Mega Embassy’ in London
Prince Harry to Return to UK to Testify in High-Profile Media Trial Against Associated Newspapers
Keir Starmer Rejects Trump’s Greenland Tariff Threat as ‘Completely Wrong’
Trump to hit Europe with 10% tariffs until Greenland deal is agreed
Prince Harry Returns to UK High Court as Final Privacy Trial Against Daily Mail Publisher Begins
Britain Confronts a Billion-Pound Wind Energy Paradox Amid Grid Constraints
The graduate 'jobpocalypse': Entry-level jobs are not shrinking. They are disappearing.
Cybercrime, Inc.: When Crime Becomes an Economy. How the World Accidentally Built a Twenty-Trillion-Dollar Criminal Economy
The Return of the Hands: Why the AI Age Is Rewriting the Meaning of “Real Work”
UK PM Kier Scammer Ridicules Tories With "Kamasutra"
Strategic Restraint, Credible Force, and the Discipline of Power
United Kingdom and Norway Endorse NATO’s ‘Arctic Sentry’ Mission Including Greenland
Woman Claiming to Be Freddie Mercury’s Secret Daughter Dies at Forty-Eight After Rare Cancer Battle
UK Launches First-Ever ‘Town of Culture’ Competition to Celebrate Local Stories and Boost Communities
Planned Sale of Shell and Exxon’s UK Gas Assets to Viaro Energy Collapses Amid Regulatory and Market Hurdles
UK Intensifies Arctic Security Engagement as Trump’s Greenland Rhetoric Fuels Allied Concern
Meghan Markle Could Return to the UK for the First Time in Nearly Four Years If Security Is Secured
Meghan Markle Likely to Return to UK Only if Harry Secures Official Security Cover
UAE Restricts Funding for Emiratis to Study in UK Amid Fears Over Muslim Brotherhood Influence
EU Seeks ‘Farage Clause’ in Brexit Reset Talks to Safeguard Long-Term Agreement Stability
Starmer’s Push to Rally Support for Action Against Elon Musk’s X Faces Setback as Canada Shuns Ban
UK Free School Meals Expansion Faces Political and Budgetary Delays
EU Seeks ‘Farage Clause’ in Brexit Reset Talks With Britain
Germany Hit by Major Airport Strikes Disrupting European Travel
Prince Harry Seeks King Charles’ Support to Open Invictus Games on UK Return
Washington Holds Back as Britain and France Signal Willingness to Deploy Troops in Postwar Ukraine
Elon Musk Accuses UK Government of Suppressing Free Speech as X Faces Potential Ban Over AI-Generated Content
Russia Deploys Hypersonic Missile in Strike on Ukraine
OpenAI and SoftBank Commit One Billion Dollars to Energy and Data Centre Supplier
UK Prime Minister Starmer Reaffirms Support for Danish Sovereignty Over Greenland Amid U.S. Pressure
UK Support Bolsters U.S. Seizure of Russian-Flagged Tanker Marinera in Atlantic Strike on Sanctions Evasion
×