London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Dec 09, 2023

UK economy beats expectations with November growth

UK economy beats expectations with November growth

The UK economy unexpectedly grew in November, helped by a boost from the World Cup, official figures show.

The economy expanded by 0.1%, helped by demand for services in the tech sector and in spite of households being squeezed by rising prices.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said pubs and restaurants also boosted growth as people went out to watch the football.

But it is still unclear whether soaring costs will tip the UK into recession.

Although the November reading of gross domestic product - a measure of all the activity by businesses, the government and people in the UK - was much better than anticipated, the overall picture still suggests the economy is stagnating as food and energy bills go up and people cut back.

The November increase marks a slowdown from a 0.5% rise in October, which was largely as a result of a bounceback from businesses shuttering to mark Queen Elizabeth II's funeral in September.

Economists have suggested that the latest data makes it less clear whether the UK will have entered a recession at the end of last year.

A recession is defined as two three-month periods, or quarters, of shrinking economic output in a row.

When a country is in recession, it is a sign that its economy is doing badly. During a downturn, companies typically make less money and the number of people unemployed rises. Graduates and school leavers also find it harder to get their first job.

Between July and September, UK economic output shrank by 0.3%.

Economic growth slowed sharply from October, partly due to strike action.

Rail workers and Royal Mail staff staged walkouts over pay and working conditions in November. Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the ONS, told the BBC's Today programme: "We definitely saw the impact of industrial action in today's figures.

"We saw reasonably large falls in rail transport, postal work and warehousing and this sector had the biggest drag on the economy in November."

There was continued industrial action in December, which widened to include NHS workers as well as Border Force staff at six UK airports. It could have a knock-on effect on next month's figures, which will reveal if the technical definition of a recession has been met.

Mr Morgan said the economy would have to shrink by 0.6% in December to send the UK into a recession.

Although there might have been a brief improvement in November, the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) warned that concerns over the economy haven't yet been laid to rest.

The national chair of the FSB, Martin McTague, said: "With costs remaining high for small firms and households alike, policymakers cannot rest on their laurels. Inflation needs to be brought down, there remains huge uncertainty over energy prices and consumer confidence remains stubbornly low."


'The next 12 months are going to be tough'

At Gtech in Worcester, staff have definitely noticed the economy slowing down.

The company designs and sells cordless vacuum cleaners and other tools. After a busy pandemic, when people were keen to invest in keeping their homes and gardens looking nice, demand has begun to decline.

"We can feel that, yes, there's probably a recession coming on, people are finding things difficult," suggests Nick Grey, founder of the business. "They're kind of worried about their basic costs of heating and fuel and all the rest of it and the worries of inflation."

Despite that, the firm gave its staff a £1,000 cost-of-living payment in December, and gave its lower-paid staff a relatively more generous pay rise than the senior workers, as they are more affected by rising costs.

"I think the next 12 months are going to be tough," says Mr Grey. "We're just trying to make sure we do the basics well, and that when all this blows over, we're positioned well to grow and recover."

While the surprise today was that the economy grew in the month of November, the trend over three months is still down, by 0.3%. Overall the UK economy still appears to be weak but it is not certain it is in formal recession, and depends on the next set of figures released in a month.

The World Cup boosted pubs, pizza delivery and the ad industry helping the economy more than normal. But a series of previous monthly figures from the past year were revised down, leaving the less volatile three-month measure heading downwards. The impact of strikes was partly behind falls in transport and postal services of 4.7% and 3.1% respectively.

So a mixed bag of new and one-off factors, and statistical revisions that will probably still leave the Bank of England further raising rates next month, as it does its most thorough assessment of the state of the economy.

Speaking on Friday, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said he had a "clear plan" to halve inflation, which measures the rate at which prices rise and is at a 40-year high.

But shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said the latest figures would "be deeply concerning to families already struggling with the soaring cost of living."

Pantheon Macroeconomics said whether or not the UK is already in recession, potentially causing more pain for households, is "hanging in the balance".

The ONS's Mr Morgan said that one in six businesses have told the ONS "they have been affected as a result of industrial action so we would have to see how the impact of industrial action feeds into our December figure in a few weeks' time".

While the manufacturing sector shrank in November and construction stagnated, the services sector, which includes a wide range of industries from hospitality to accountancy, grew.

Newsletter

Related Articles

London Daily
Close
0:00
0:00
EU Fiscal Agreement Sparks Disagreement Between France and Germany Over Investment Expenditure
You Are So Beautiful
UK Parliamentary Committee Criticizes Lackluster Post-Brexit Financial Reforms
Postmodern Jukebox European Tour Version
US, UK, Canada Impose Sanctions on Dozens on Human Rights Anniversary The US, UK, and Canada have collectively imposed sanctions on dozens of individuals and entities for human rights abuses to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights
An old French tune (by Georges Brassens) Pomplamoose ft. John Schroeder
"New Beginnings: Greece and Turkey Agree to Repair Relations
Sattahip Motor Show 20
Finland's Supreme Court Prevents Extradition of Russian Terrorism Suspect to Ukraine
SONATE AU CLAIR DE LUNE - Moonlight sonata
UK Proposes Streamlined Financial Advice to Reduce Costs for Consumers
A kiss to build a dream on
UK's Labour Party Conducts Review of Financial Services to Boost City's Growth Potential
Wonderful Tonight - Eric Clapton (Boyce Avenue acoustic cover)
London City Hall Condemns Blast Targeting Clean Air Zone Camera
Mean Blues
Venezuela Steps Up Claim on Guyana's Essequibo Region
La Chansonnette
Spain's First AI Model Earns Up to $10,000 Monthly
Pattaya Addicts
Spotify Plans Workforce Reduction of Nearly 20% Despite Reporting £55 Million Profit
Franz Liszt - Liebestraum - Love Dream
Former President Restricted from Leaving Ukraine Amid Alleged Plan to Meet Hungary's Viktor Orban
Dream a little dream of me
Ikea Commits £10 Million for 2024 Pay Raises for UK Employees
Unchained Melody sung like you've NEVER heard!
Ant and Dec, our favorite jungle jesters, have thrown a curveball. They're suggesting a 'politician-free' season of 'I'm A Celebrity. Get Me Out Of Here!'
Dave Brubeck - Take Five
Trump’s lawyers say he did not take an oath ‘to support the Constitution’
Édith Piaf - Non, Je Ne Regrette Rien (Sofie)
Henry Kissinger, the influential American diplomat, Nobel Peace Prize laureate, and former Secretary of State, passed away at 100 at his Connecticut home.
Rondo Alla Turca
Thai Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Dr. Parnpreeb Commends ICRC's Role in Hostage Release
Kiss of fire
Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of the crypto exchange FTX who was convicted of fraud earlier this month, is adjusting to his new life in the detention center where he awaits sentencing.
Tom Jones - I´ll Never Fall In Love Again 1967, 1989, 2001
Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of the crypto exchange FTX who was convicted of fraud earlier this month, is adjusting to his new life in the detention center where he awaits sentencing.
Israel Cachao López - Guajira Clásica
The political network founded by the billionaire industrialist brothers Charles and David Koch has endorsed Nikki Haley in the Republican presidential nominating contest
Edward Maya - Stereo Love (feat. Vika Jigulina) (Extended Mix)
Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's longtime investing partner, dies at 99
Strauss - Radetzky March - Karajan
Robert De Niro told an awards ceremony a speech he was reading had been edited without his knowledge, removing critical comments about Donald Trump
La vie en rose
Standard Chartered is in the early stages of a search for its next chair as the bank prepares for the departure of Jose Vinals, who’s entering his eighth year in the role
The Temptations - My Girl (Smokey Robinson Tribute) 2006 Kennedy Cent
Eurostar to Suspend Amsterdam to London Service for 6 Months
Orlando Cachaito Lopez Redencion
California is not considered a racist place. Or so it seems.
Edith Piaf - NON, JE NE REGRETTE RIEN
Sam Altman's return to OpenAI marks a significant turn of events for Microsoft and its relationship with the AI giant.
RADETZKY MARCH-2008-Wien, New Year Concert
Radical immigrants set on fire police cars and loot shops in Dublin.
Only you (And you alone)
The BBC Caught Again with Questionable Journalistic Standards, as Ugly Facts Undermine Its Attractive Yet Flawed Arguments
Strangers In The Night
This video reveals that Target's Black Friday promotions are entirely fake, with no actual discounts. The prices before and after are identical!
Charles Aznavour - La Boheme
Israel's Spokesperson Mark Regev's Response to Comparisons Between Palestinian Teenage Terrorists and Young Innocent Victims of Hamas Captivity
Summer time
Here is a video showing the moment of the release of the captives by the terrorist organization Hamas and their transfer to the Red Cross on their way back to the State of Israel.
Sting and Stevie Wonder - Fragile (from Sting's 60th birthday concert)
Here is a video showing the moment of the release of the captives by the terrorist organization Hamas and their transfer to the Red Cross on their way back to the State of Israel.
Aux Champs Elysees
Bill Gates Envisions a Possible 3-Day Work Week with AI
Stand By Me - Ben E. King (Boyce Avenue acoustic cover)
Viktor Orban's Provocative Assertions and Their Significance in Europe
La Mer (Beyond the Sea) – Avalon Jazz Band
Orban's Blunt Challenge to Brussels: Embracing National Sovereignty in Migration Policy
She
OpenAI Staff Rebellion: 500 Employees Demand Board Resignation in Dramatic Standoff
Nathalie Song by Enzo Petrachi Stjepan Hauser Cello
OpenAI Staff Rebellion: 500 Employees Demand Board Resignation in Dramatic Standoff
Shape of My Heart - Sting (Boyce Avenue acoustic cover)
Over 200 Convicted in Italy's 'Ndrangheta Mafia Trial
Radiohead - Creep
In a scandalous revelation at the COVID-19 inquiry, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is under fire for an alleged remark that suggests a chilling indifference to human life during the pandemic
Quizás,Quizás,Quizás - Andrea Bocelli - Jennifer Lopez
Abu Dhabi-Backed Fund Poised to Assume Control of UK's Telegraph Media Group
Perhaps, Perhaps, Perhaps - Multi-Couples
Sam Altman and Greg Brockman Join Microsoft Amidst OpenAI Developments
Pentatonix Havana
Reporters Without Borders Unveils News Platform to Counter Russian Propaganda
Paula Cole - Autumn Leaves
Singer Shakira will pay a fine of eight million euros after being accused of evading taxes worth 14.5 million euros during the years 2012-2014.
Oscar Benton Bensonhurst Blues
Hungary's Orbán Asserts Ukraine Is Far from EU Membership
OH NANANA vs ABUSADAMENTE
Racial Bias in AI Leads to Wrongful Arrest Due to False Recognition
Nina Simone - ”I Put A Spell On You”. Vezi aici cum cântă Jeremy Ragsd
Orban Stresses Hungary's Need to Reform the EU Rather Than Exiting It
NIGHTWISH - The Phantom Of The Opera
Biden Advocates for Palestinian Authority to Govern Gaza and West Bank
Motorshow 2016 Tanjay Negros Oriental
Brigitte Macron Opens Up About Her Marriage to Younger President Emmanuel Macron
Monica Bellucci - Ti Amo
Apple and Disney Halt Ads on X Following Elon Musk's Antisemitic Post, US Reacts
Michael Jackson - Billie Jean Milena The Voice France 2018
Finland Shuts Four Crossing Points on Russia Border
Michael Buble (Help Me Make It Through The Night) feat Loren Allred
Memories Canon In D - Maroon 5 (Boyce Avenue piano acoustic cover)
Matteo Simoni - Marina
Maroon 5 - One More Night
Maroon 5 - Memories
Mark Knopfler - Brothers In Arms (Berlin 2007 Live)
Mark Knopfler & Emmylou Harris - Romeo And Juliet (Real Live Roadrunni
Marina, Marina - The LUCKY DUCKIES intimist live concert at Guimarães
Major Lazer & DJ Snake – Lean On Mauranne The Voice France 2016
Love Theme from Romeo and Juliet - Joslin - Henri Mancini, Nino Rota
LoLa & Hauser - Love Story
Linkin Park Jay-Z - Numb Encore (Live 8 2005)
Hallelujah Mennel Ibtissem, The Voice France Leonard Cohen
Leonard Cohen - Dance Me to the End of Love
Leonard Cohen & Natasha Rostova - Dance me to the end of love
La casa de papel - Bella Ciao
La Camisa Negra
L'italiano (Toto Cutugno) - The Gypsy Queens
Juanes - La Camisa Negra
Jonathan and Charlotte - Britain's Got Talent 2012 Live Semi Final - U
John Powell - Assassin's Tango
Joe Cocker - You Can Leave Your Hat On (LIVE in Dortmund)
Joe Cocker - Unchain My Heart 2002 Live
Joe Cocker - A Whiter Shade Of Pale
Jay Z & Alicia Keys - Empire State of Mind LIVE
Jason Mraz - Im Yours (live)
Jarrod Radnich - Bohemian Rhapsody - Virtuosic Piano Solo
James Blunt - You're Beautiful
James Blunt - You're Beautiful & Bonfire Heart (Live at The Nobel Peac)
If You Go Away - Helen Merrill & Stan Getz (Tribute to Virna Lisi)
I'LL BE MISSING YOU
I Say a Little Prayer
Hotel California ( Eagles ) 1994 Live
Historia de un amor - Luz Casal. Vezi interpretarea Biancăi Sumanariu
Here Comes The Sun - The Beatles (Boyce Avenue acoustic cover) on Spot
Heart - Stairway to Heaven Led Zeppelin - Kennedy Center Honors
HAVANA by Camila Cabello Zumba Pre Cooldown TML Crew Kramer Pastra
HAUSER and Señorita - I Will Always Love You
HAUSER - Waka Waka
HAUSER - Sway
HAUSER - Lambada
HAUSER - Historia de un Amor
HAUSER - Despacito
Great Pretender
Georgia May Foote & Giovanni Pernice Samba to 'Volare' - Strictly Come
Gary Moore - Still Got The Blues
GIPSY KINGS VOLARE Penelope Cruz
Fugees - Killing Me Softly With His Song
French Latino - Historia de un Amor
For A Few Dollars More The Danish National Symphony Orchestra (Live)
Flashdance • What a Feeling • Irene Cara
Filip Rudan - “Someone You Loved” Audicija 4 The Voice Hrvatska Sez
Eric Clapton - Wonderful Tonight
Enya - Only Time
Enrique Iglesias - Bailando (English Version) ft. Sean Paul
Enrique Iglesias - Bailamos
Elena Yerevan Historia de un amor
Ed Sheeran - Shape of You (Official Music Video)
Ed Sheeran - Perfect Symphony [with Andrea Bocelli]
Ed Sheeran - Perfect (Official Music Video)
Easy On Me - Adele (Boyce Avenue 90’s style piano acoustic cover) on S
ERA - Ameno
ELENA YEREVAN- Cancion Del Mariachi-IN STUDIO-2017 DPR
Dust In The Wind - Kansas (Boyce Avenue acoustic cover)
Don't Let Me Be Misunderstood
Despacito x Shape Of You - Pentatonix
Deep Purple - Child In Time - Live (1970)
David Foster When A Man Loves A WomanIt's A Mans World (SealMichael Bo
Dance me to the end of Love ( Pi-Air Design )
Coolio - Gangsta's Paradise (feat. L.V.) [Official Music Video]
Conquest Of Paradise (Vangelis), played on Böhm Emporio organ
Cielito Lindo
Chico & The Gypsies - Bamboleo
Canción Del Mariachi - Antonio Banderas, Los Lobos • Desperado
Camila Cabello - Havana (Audio) ft. Young Thug
Camila Cabello - Havana ( cover by J.Fla )
California Dreamin' - The Mamas & The Papas José Feliciano (Boyce Ave
Buster Benton - Money Is The Name of The Game
Hallelujah Pentatonix
Bobby McFerrin - Don't Worry Be Happy (Official Music Video)
Bob Dylan - Knockin' On Heaven's Door Emilia The Voice Kids France
Besame Mucho - Cesaria Evora
Ben E. King - Stand by Me Sax Cover Alexandra Ilieva Thomann
Bella Ciao
Bella Ciao - INSTRUMENTAL
Beautiful in White x Canon in D (Piano Cover by Riyandi Kusuma)
Bad Romance - Vintage 1920's Gatsby Style Lady Gaga Cover ft. Ariana Savalas & Sarah Reich(1)
BELLA CIAO 2020 - KARAOKE ITALIANO
BAMBOLEO - Gipsy Kings • Antonio Banderas, Katya Virshilas
BAILANDO (original)
Awesome Ukrainian yodeler - SOFIA SHKIDCHENKO (with English subtitles)
Avicii - The Nights
Atom - The Great Gig in the Sky
Aretha Franklin - (You Make Me Feel Like) A Natural Woman (Official Ly
Antonio Banderas - Cancion del Mariachi (Desperado)
André Rieu - Zorba's Dance (Sirtaki)
André Rieu - Can't Help Falling In Love
André Rieu & Mirusia - Ave Maria
Andrew Reyes Elton John - Don't Let The Sun Go Down The Voice 2020 (
Andreas Kümmert Whiter Shade Of Pale The Voice of Germany 2013 Showd
And I Love You So
All About That Bass - Postmodern Jukebox European Tour Version
Alan Walker - Faded (Piano Cover)
Ain't No Sunshine -- Bill Withers (cover by Canen 12 y.o.)
African music
Adriana Vidović - “Creep” Audicija 4 The Voice Hrvatska Sezona 3
Adriana Vidović - “Believer” Nokaut 3 The Voice Hrvatska Sezona 3
A Fistful of Dollars - The Danish National Symphony Orchestra and Tuva
4 Beautiful Soundtracks Relaxing Piano [10min]
2CELLOS - Whole Lotta Love vs. Beethoven 5th Symphony [OFFICIAL VIDEO]
2CELLOS - Smooth Criminal (Live at Suntory Hall, Tokyo)
2CELLOS - Smells Like Teen Spirit [Live at Sydney Opera House]
2CELLOS - Despacito [OFFICIAL VIDEO]
13 Year Old Girl Playing Il Silenzio (The Silence) - André Rieu
094.All About That Bass
00 - SADNESS PART 1
(Ghost) Riders In the Sky (American Outlaws Live at Nassau Coliseum, 1
(Everything I Do) I Do It For You - Bryan Adams (Boyce Avenue ft. Conn
What a wonderful world
Moon river
×