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Friday, May 09, 2025

UK By-Elections Deliver Mixed Results for Political Parties

UK By-Elections Deliver Mixed Results for Political Parties

The UK by-elections held on 25 November delivered a mixed result for the country's political parties.
The Conservatives managed to hold on to the seemingly vulnerable Uxbridge seat, but lost the supposedly safe Selby to Labour.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats pulled off a spectacular victory in Somerton and Frome.

This resulted in all three main parties having a prize to celebrate, but also left them with a headache.

The Labour Party needed a 7.5% swing from the Conservatives to capture Boris Johnson's former Uxbridge seat, which was well below the 15% swing in the latest national polls and the average swing of 11% Labour had previously secured in three safe seats that have taken place since the demise of former PM Liz Truss.

Despite falling short of what was needed, Labour captured Selby and Ainsty on a 23.7% swing, the second biggest ever swing from Conservative to Labour in a post-war parliamentary election.

This was also the biggest swing Labour has secured in any post-war by-election since the 1992-7 parliament, which ended with the Conservatives being ejected from office.

The Liberal Democrats secured a 29% swing from the Conservatives in Somerton and Frome, which was slightly less than their previous by-election victories in North Shropshire and Tiverton and Honiton, but still represented the fifth biggest swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat in any post-war by-election.

The Liberal Democrats have been making the spectacular seem routine, but the heavy scale of their losses in Somerton (a fall of nearly 30%) and in Selby (a drop of 26 points) suggests that Tory MPs should not draw any conclusion other than that their party is still in deep electoral trouble.

The newly elected Conservative MP for Uxbridge suggested that the local issue of London mayor Sadiq Khan's proposed extension of London's low emission zone to the capital's outer boroughs played an important role in helping shore up the Conservative vote.

However, both the Conservatives and Labour agree that this issue was crucial, and did not give Rishi Sunak and his government any credit for his success.

In Uxbridge and Selby, the already low Liberal Dem The Tory leadership is facing a significant challenge as they seek to win back the trust of voters following the party's disappointing performance in the Somerton and Frome by-election.

Living standards are falling, the economy is faltering, and public services are struggling, making it difficult to convince voters to support the Conservatives.

John Curtice, Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde and Senior Research Fellow at the National Centre for Social Research and the UK in a Changing Europe, believes that the results of the by-election demonstrate a lack of appetite for the Conservative Party among voters.

"The Tory leader needs to find a new tune for his party," Curtice says.

"But with living standards falling, the economy faltering, and public services struggling, enticing voters back into the Tory fold still looks far from easy." Despite the challenges facing the Conservatives, the party remains hopeful that they can make gains in upcoming by-elections in Selby and Ainsty, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and other constituencies.

However, they will need to work hard to win over voters who have grown increasingly disenchanted with the party.

The Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats are also hoping to capitalize on the Conservatives' struggles and make gains in the upcoming by-elections.

The results of the Somerton and Frome by-election demonstrate that voters are looking for change and are open to supporting alternative parties.

In order to win back voters, the Tory leadership will need to offer a clear and compelling vision for the future.

They will need to address the issues of living standards, the economy, and public services, and offer concrete solutions to the challenges facing the country.

Only then will they be able to convince voters to support the Conservatives and make gains in the upcoming by-elections.
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