London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Nov 13, 2025

U.S. annual consumer inflation posts largest increase since 1981

U.S. annual consumer inflation posts largest increase since 1981

U.S. annual consumer prices jumped 9.1% in June, the largest increase in more than four decades, leaving Americans to dig deeper to pay for gasoline, food, healthcare and rents, and the Federal Reserve most certain to hike interest rates by another 75 basis points at the end of the month.

The bigger-than-expected rise in the year-on-year consumer price index reported by the Labor Department on Wednesday also reflected higher prices for a range of other goods and services, including motor vehicles, apparel and household furniture. The CPI increased by the most in nearly 17 years on a monthly basis.

The inflation data followed stronger-than-expected job growth in June and suggested that the U.S. central bank's aggressive monetary policy stance had made little progress thus far in cooling demand and bringing inflation down to its 2% target. With rents surging by the most in 36 years, inflation could become entrenched.

Though a global problem, stubbornly high inflation is a political risk for U.S. President Joe Biden and his Democratic Party heading into congressional elections in November.

"Despite the Fed's best intentions, the economy looks to be moving into a higher inflation regime," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York. "The Fed is even further behind the curve after today's sizzling report."

The consumer price index increased 1.3% last month, the biggest monthly gain since September 2005, after advancing 1.0% in May. A 7.5% surge in energy prices accounted for nearly half of the increase in the CPI. Gasoline prices jumped 11.2% after rebounding by 4.1% in May. Prices at the pump have since declined considerably from June's record highs.

Natural gas prices rose 8.2%, the most since October 2005. The cost of food consumed at home rose 1.0%, posting the sixth straight monthly increase of at least 1.0%.

In the 12 months through June, the CPI jumped 9.1%. That was the biggest gain since November 1981 and followed an 8.6% rise in May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI would rise 1.1% and accelerating 8.8% year-on-year.

Consumer prices are surging, driven by snarled global supply chains and massive fiscal stimulus from governments early in the COVID-19 pandemic.

The ongoing war in Ukraine, which has caused a spike in global food and fuel prices, has worsened the situation.

President Biden sought to draw some comfort from the retreat in gasoline prices from June, when they averaged above $5 per gallon, according to data from motorist advocacy group AAA. They were averaging $4.631 per gallon on Wednesday, which could ease some of the pressure on consumers.

"Those savings are providing important breathing room for American families," Biden said in a statement. "And, other commodities like wheat have fallen sharply since this report."

Annual food prices are rising at their fastest pace since February 1981, with energy prices posting their largest jump in more than 42 years.

Financial markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to raise its policy rate by 75 basis points at its July 26-27 meeting. A full-percentage-point increase has not been ruled out and attention now shifts to the University of Michigan's consumer inflation expectations survey on Friday.

The Bank of Canada surprised by hiking its policy rate by 100 basis points on Wednesday, a super-sized increase last seen in 1998.

The Fed has raised its overnight interest rate by 150 basis points since March.

U.S. stocks were mixed. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices rose.

UNDERLYING INFLATION


The economy created 372,000 jobs in June, with a broader measure of unemployment hitting a record low.

There had been hope that a shift in spending from goods to services would help cool inflation. But the very tight labor market is boosting wages, adding to higher prices for services.

Underlying inflation pressures sizzled last month. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI gained 0.7% in June after climbing 0.6% in May. The so-called core CPI was lifted by the cost of rent, which shot up 0.8%, the largest monthly increase since April 1986.

Rents are one of the largest and stickiest inflation categories, which raises the risk of the Fed maintaining its aggressive rate hikes into the second-half of the year.

"There remain miles to go before getting back toward anything resembling price stability," said Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina.

New vehicle prices maintained their upward trend as did those for used cars and trucks. The cost of motor vehicle maintenance and repairs surged 2.0%, the most since September 1974. Healthcare costs rose 0.7%, with a record increase in the cost of dental services.

Apparel prices increased 0.8%, despite retailers like Walmart (WMT.N) and Target (TGT.N) reporting excess inventory that would require discounts. But prices for hotels, car rentals and airfares declined. Still, core goods prices rose a strong 0.8%, while services gained 0.7%.

The core CPI increased 5.9% in the 12 months through June. That followed a 6.0% rise in the 12 months through May and marked a third straight month of deceleration.

High inflation is eroding wage gains, which together with rising borrowing costs could crimp consumer spending, leaving economists to expect a mild recession at the turn of the year. Inflation-adjusted average weekly earning fell 1.0% in June.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Upholds Firm Rules on Stablecoins to Shield Financial System
Brussels Divided as UK-EU Reset Stalls Over Budget Access
Prince Harry’s Remembrance Day Essay Expresses Strong Regret at Leaving Britain
UK Unemployment Hits 5% as Wage Growth Slows, Paving Way for Bank of England Rate Cut
Starmer Warns of Resurgent Racism in UK Politics as He Vows Child-Poverty Reforms
UK Grocery Inflation Slows to 4.7% as Supermarkets Launch Pre-Christmas Promotions
UK Government Backs the BBC amid Editing Scandal and Trump Threat of Legal Action
UK Assessment Mis-Estimated Fallout From Palestine Action Ban, Records Reveal
UK Halts Intelligence Sharing with US Amid Lethal Boat-Strike Concerns
King Charles III Leads Britain in Remembrance Sunday Tribute to War Dead
UK Retail Sales Growth Slows as Households Hold Back Ahead of Black Friday and Budget
Shell Pulls Out of Two UK Floating Wind Projects Amid Renewables Retreat
Viagogo Hit With £15 Million Tax Bill After HMRC Transfer-Pricing Inquiry
Jaguar Land Rover Cyberattack Pinches UK GDP, Bank of England Says
UK and Germany Sound Alarm on Russian-Satellite Threat to Critical Infrastructure
Former Prince Andrew Faces U.S. Congressional Request for Testimony Amid Brexit of Royal Title
BBC Director-General Tim Davie and News CEO Deborah Turness Resign Amid Editing Controversy
Tom Cruise Arrives by Helicopter at UK Scientology Fundraiser Amid Local Protests
Prince Andrew and Sarah Ferguson Face Fresh UK Probes Amid Royal Fallout
Mothers Link Teen Suicides to AI Chatbots in Growing Legal Battle
UK Government to Mirror Denmark’s Tough Immigration Framework in Major Policy Shift
UK Government Turns to Denmark-Style Immigration Reforms to Overhaul Border Rules
UK Chancellor Warned Against Cutting Insulation Funding as Budget Looms
UK Tenant Complaints Hit Record Levels as Rental Sector Faces Mounting Pressure
Apple to Pay Google About One Billion Dollars Annually for Gemini AI to Power Next-Generation Siri
UK Signals Major Shift as Nuclear Arms Race Looms
BBC’s « Celebrity Traitors UK » Finale Breaks Records with 11.1 Million Viewers
UK Spy Case Collapse Highlights Implications for UK-Taiwan Strategic Alignment
On the Road to the Oscars? Meghan Markle to Star in a New Film
A Vote Worth a Trillion Dollars: Elon Musk’s Defining Day
AI Researchers Claim Human-Level General Intelligence Is Already Here
President Donald Trump Challenges Nigeria with Military Options Over Alleged Christian Killings
Nancy Pelosi Finally Announces She Will Not Seek Re-Election, Signalling End of Long Congressional Career
UK Pre-Budget Blues and Rate-Cut Concerns Pile Pressure on Pound
ITV Warns of Nine-Per-Cent Drop in Q4 Advertising Revenue Amid Budget Uncertainty
National Grid Posts Slightly Stronger-Than-Expected Half-Year Profit as Regulatory Investments Drive Growth
UK Business Lobby Urges Reeves to Break Tax Pledges and Build Fiscal Headroom
UK to Launch Consultation on Stablecoin Regulation on November 10
UK Savers Rush to Withdraw Pension Cash Ahead of Budget Amid Tax-Change Fears
Massive Spoilers Emerge from MAFS UK 2025: Couple Swaps, Dating App Leaks and Reunion Bombshells
Kurdish-led Crime Network Operates UK Mini-Marts to Exploit Migrants and Sell Illicit Goods
UK Income Tax Hike Could Trigger £1 Billion Cut to Scotland’s Budget, Warns Finance Secretary
Tommy Robinson Acquitted of Terror-related Charge After Phone PIN Dispute
Boris Johnson Condemns Western Support for Hamas at Jewish Community Conference
HII Welcomes UK’s Westley Group to Strengthen AUKUS Submarine Supply Chain
Tragedy in Serbia: Coach Mladen Žižović Collapses During Match and Dies at 44
Diplo Says He Dated Katy Perry — and Justin Trudeau
Dick Cheney, Former U.S. Vice President, Dies at 84
Trump Calls Title Removal of Andrew ‘Tragic Situation’ Amid Royal Fallout
UK Bonds Rally as Chancellor Reeves Briefs Markets Ahead of November Budget
×