London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Mar 13, 2026

U.S. annual consumer inflation posts largest increase since 1981

U.S. annual consumer inflation posts largest increase since 1981

U.S. annual consumer prices jumped 9.1% in June, the largest increase in more than four decades, leaving Americans to dig deeper to pay for gasoline, food, healthcare and rents, and the Federal Reserve most certain to hike interest rates by another 75 basis points at the end of the month.

The bigger-than-expected rise in the year-on-year consumer price index reported by the Labor Department on Wednesday also reflected higher prices for a range of other goods and services, including motor vehicles, apparel and household furniture. The CPI increased by the most in nearly 17 years on a monthly basis.

The inflation data followed stronger-than-expected job growth in June and suggested that the U.S. central bank's aggressive monetary policy stance had made little progress thus far in cooling demand and bringing inflation down to its 2% target. With rents surging by the most in 36 years, inflation could become entrenched.

Though a global problem, stubbornly high inflation is a political risk for U.S. President Joe Biden and his Democratic Party heading into congressional elections in November.

"Despite the Fed's best intentions, the economy looks to be moving into a higher inflation regime," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York. "The Fed is even further behind the curve after today's sizzling report."

The consumer price index increased 1.3% last month, the biggest monthly gain since September 2005, after advancing 1.0% in May. A 7.5% surge in energy prices accounted for nearly half of the increase in the CPI. Gasoline prices jumped 11.2% after rebounding by 4.1% in May. Prices at the pump have since declined considerably from June's record highs.

Natural gas prices rose 8.2%, the most since October 2005. The cost of food consumed at home rose 1.0%, posting the sixth straight monthly increase of at least 1.0%.

In the 12 months through June, the CPI jumped 9.1%. That was the biggest gain since November 1981 and followed an 8.6% rise in May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI would rise 1.1% and accelerating 8.8% year-on-year.

Consumer prices are surging, driven by snarled global supply chains and massive fiscal stimulus from governments early in the COVID-19 pandemic.

The ongoing war in Ukraine, which has caused a spike in global food and fuel prices, has worsened the situation.

President Biden sought to draw some comfort from the retreat in gasoline prices from June, when they averaged above $5 per gallon, according to data from motorist advocacy group AAA. They were averaging $4.631 per gallon on Wednesday, which could ease some of the pressure on consumers.

"Those savings are providing important breathing room for American families," Biden said in a statement. "And, other commodities like wheat have fallen sharply since this report."

Annual food prices are rising at their fastest pace since February 1981, with energy prices posting their largest jump in more than 42 years.

Financial markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to raise its policy rate by 75 basis points at its July 26-27 meeting. A full-percentage-point increase has not been ruled out and attention now shifts to the University of Michigan's consumer inflation expectations survey on Friday.

The Bank of Canada surprised by hiking its policy rate by 100 basis points on Wednesday, a super-sized increase last seen in 1998.

The Fed has raised its overnight interest rate by 150 basis points since March.

U.S. stocks were mixed. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices rose.

UNDERLYING INFLATION


The economy created 372,000 jobs in June, with a broader measure of unemployment hitting a record low.

There had been hope that a shift in spending from goods to services would help cool inflation. But the very tight labor market is boosting wages, adding to higher prices for services.

Underlying inflation pressures sizzled last month. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI gained 0.7% in June after climbing 0.6% in May. The so-called core CPI was lifted by the cost of rent, which shot up 0.8%, the largest monthly increase since April 1986.

Rents are one of the largest and stickiest inflation categories, which raises the risk of the Fed maintaining its aggressive rate hikes into the second-half of the year.

"There remain miles to go before getting back toward anything resembling price stability," said Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina.

New vehicle prices maintained their upward trend as did those for used cars and trucks. The cost of motor vehicle maintenance and repairs surged 2.0%, the most since September 1974. Healthcare costs rose 0.7%, with a record increase in the cost of dental services.

Apparel prices increased 0.8%, despite retailers like Walmart (WMT.N) and Target (TGT.N) reporting excess inventory that would require discounts. But prices for hotels, car rentals and airfares declined. Still, core goods prices rose a strong 0.8%, while services gained 0.7%.

The core CPI increased 5.9% in the 12 months through June. That followed a 6.0% rise in the 12 months through May and marked a third straight month of deceleration.

High inflation is eroding wage gains, which together with rising borrowing costs could crimp consumer spending, leaving economists to expect a mild recession at the turn of the year. Inflation-adjusted average weekly earning fell 1.0% in June.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Middle East War Highlights Strategic Importance of Strong UK–Ireland Cooperation
Weak Growth Signals UK Economy Was Faltering Even Before Middle East Energy Shock
Marks & Spencer Tops UK Fashion Retail Rankings as Most Considered Brand
United States Launches Trade Investigation Into Allies Over Forced Labour Practices
United States Launches Trade Investigation Into Allies Over Forced Labour Practices
Russia Accuses Britain Over Storm Shadow Strike as London Reaffirms Ukraine’s Right to Self-Defence
Russia Accuses Britain Over Storm Shadow Strike as London Reaffirms Ukraine’s Right to Self-Defence
Royal Navy to Acquire Twenty Uncrewed Surface Vessels for Autonomous Warfare Testing
Russia Summons British and French Envoys After Ukrainian Storm Shadow Strike on Strategic Facility
Starmer Confirms Britain Will Maintain Sanctions on Russia Despite U.S. Policy Shift
UK Moves to Refine AI Definition in Investment Security Reform
UK Economy Stalls in January as Growth Unexpectedly Falls to Zero
Asian Energy Security Tested as Strait of Hormuz Disruption Threatens Oil Supplies
Iran Sets Three Conditions for Ending Regional War as Diplomatic Efforts Intensify
Tesla Secures Approval to Supply Electricity Directly to Homes Across Britain
Prince William Delivers Tribute to Australia’s Naval Alliance Amid Renewed Royal Spotlight on the Country
UK Foreign Secretary Travels to Saudi Arabia to Reinforce Support for Regional Allies
Putin’s ‘Hidden Hand’ May Be Assisting Iran in Conflict With Trump, UK Defence Secretary Warns
UK Sets April Deadline for Tech Platforms to Strengthen Online Protections for Children
Elon Musk Moves Into Britain’s Energy Market as Tesla Wins Licence to Supply Power
UK Watchdog Warns Fuel Retailers Against Profiteering Amid Iran War Price Surge
Report Claims Iran Used UK Charity Network to Expand Influence
United States and United Kingdom Establish Joint Standards for Counter-Drone Technology
Iran May Be Laying Naval Mines in Strait of Hormuz, UK Warns Amid Escalating Gulf Tensions
US Deploys Bunker-Buster Bombs to UK Airbase as Iran Conflict Intensifies
British Troops in Iraq Intercept Iranian Drones Targeting Coalition Base
Release of Mandelson Files Raises Tensions as UK Seeks Stable Relations With Donald Trump
UK Documents Reveal Starmer Was Warned About Mandelson’s Epstein Links Before Ambassador Appointment
Nearly Five Hundred UK Mortgage Deals Withdrawn in Two Days as Market Volatility Forces Lenders to Reprice
Three Cargo Ships Hit Near Iran as Attacks Spread to Strategic Strait of Hormuz
Why British Police Repeatedly Declined to Investigate Jeffrey Epstein’s UK Links
UK Parliament Ends Hereditary Seats in House of Lords, Closing Chapter on Centuries of Aristocratic Lawmaking
EU and UK Urge Israel to Act Against Rising West Bank Settler Violence Amid Regional Tensions
US Senator John Kennedy Says Keir Starmer Should Not Be Trusted for Military Advice Amid Iran War Debate
UK High Court Rejects Attempt to Revive Terrorism Charge Against Kneecap Rapper
Revolut Secures Full UK Banking Licence After Multi-Year Regulatory Wait
Kentucky’s Bench Boost Powers Wildcats Past LSU in SEC Tournament Opener
British Couple Die After Being Pulled From Water at Australian Beach During Family Visit
Global Energy Agency Announces Record Release of 400 Million Barrels to Stabilize Oil Markets Amid Hormuz Disruption
British Airways Suspends UK Repatriation Flights as Middle East Travel Disruption Deepens
US Forces Prepare Ordnance at RAF Fairford as Strategic Bombers Deploy for Middle East Operations
Nigel Farage Faces Criticism After Saying Britain Should Stay Out of Iran War
Landmark UK Trial Begins Over Sony’s PlayStation Store Pricing
UK High Court Rejects Bid to Challenge Britain’s Chagos Islands Agreement With Mauritius
Finnish Duo Triumphs in England’s Annual Wife-Carrying Race, Winning a Barrel of Ale
How U.S. and UK National Security Strategies Are Reshaping the Global Business Landscape
Green Party Gains Momentum as Labour Shifts Toward the Political Centre
Royal Navy Destroyer HMS Dragon Sets Sail for Eastern Mediterranean as Regional Tensions Rise
UK Homebuilder Persimmon Warns Iran Conflict Could Dent Property Buyer Confidence
Roman Abramovich Signals Legal Fight if UK Seeks to Seize Chelsea Sale Funds
×