London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Aug 01, 2025

There will be no winners in a Ukraine war

There will be no winners in a Ukraine war

By recognising DNR and LNR, Putin is pushing for war. But he will not emerge victorious.
So here we go: Putin has rolled the dice. On February 21, he issued a decree recognising the breakaway People’s Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk (DNR and LNR) in Eastern Ukraine.

The Duma, the lower chamber of the Russian Federation’s parliament, duly ratified the cooperation and mutual assistance agreement concluded with the two “states” the day after with zero votes against and no abstentions.

Russian troops are now officially deploying in the Donbas. There is no longer the pretence that Kyiv authorities are really facing local rebels sympathetic towards Moscow, and that this is a civil conflict rather than a showdown between Russia and Ukraine.

Where does this leave us? Recognition closes the diplomatic and political route the West invested so much into during the past eight years. The Minsk II protocol agreed upon by the so-called Normandy Four (Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany) back in February 2015 is no longer worth the paper it is printed on.

It stipulated that the reintegration of DNR and LNR into Ukraine would happen after constitutional amendments granting them special status are passed. Other provisions of the document allowed for Russia to partly restore its lost leverage in domestic politics, as well as see some of the Western sanctions lifted. Ukraine, for its part, would recover territorial control.

In hindsight, Minsk probably never had a chance. Russia and Ukraine had opposing interpretations as to the sequence of steps: Kyiv wanted to re-establish control over the border with Russia first before changing its basic constitution and Russia wanted it the other way around. But on February 21, this all became history.

There are at least two forecasts for what happens next: a slightly optimistic one and a rather dark one. For a minority of Russia-watchers, the de facto takeover of DNR and LNR is an alternative to an all-out attack against Ukraine. The new “states” can be admitted to the Union State of Russia and Belarus, a mini-USSR led by Moscow. Putin will bask in the glory of a great restorer of Russia’s grandeur, the way he very much wants to go down in history books.

Yet there are numerous sceptics, too. Scuppering the Minsk Accords is equivalent to surrendering a bargaining chip. Recognising the separatist statelets is tantamount to capitulation, to losing the rest of Ukraine, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov opined back in 2018.

So why mass more than 100,000 troops along with heavy weaponry and then walk away with what you already have anyway? “Russia is not unilaterally giving away its main leverage over Ukraine, for nothing (plus getting sanctioned), or just introducing troops into occupied territories where it has already kept forces on rotation for 8 years. That’s not what this is about” – as analyst Michael Kofman put it.

In other words, Putin has his sights on the entirety of Ukraine. Claiming DNR and LNR is only the first step towards further action aimed at securing control over the rest of the neighbouring country. Putin’s vitriolic speech on February 21, questioning Ukraine’s sovereignty and historical foundations, sounded ominous.

The coming days will show where we are heading. Moscow was purposefully ambiguous on the critical issue of where DNR and LNR’s western borders lie. But on February 22, Putin stated that the administrative regions, two-thirds of which are still controlled by Kyiv, belong to the newly recognised entities.

In the meantime, the Federation Council, the upper chamber of the parliament, authorised the use of military force abroad.

We may be on the brink of a major showdown. Taken together, Putin’s decisions mean that Russia has declared war on Ukraine. And once the hostilities start, the Kremlin could order troops to take Kyiv as well as other big urban centres in the south and the east of the country, carry out regime change and install a puppet government. In Putin’s mind, that might be the only way to stop Ukraine’s westward drift which started with the Orange Revolution in 2004-2005.

Will the Russian plan work? In the short term, there is little that can stop Putin. The balance of power and of resolve is firmly in his favour.

In the longer term, things might get messier, however. Keeping Ukraine through coercion and blunt force will generate pushback. An insurgency in Ukraine would start eroding Putin’s popularity at home when the body bags started coming back home.

On Twitter, imprisoned Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny likened the Kremlin’s aggressive posturing to 1979 when the Soviet Politburo took the perilous decision to invade Afghanistan. Even if that comparison is pushing it too far, one should not underestimate the power of nationalism. To bring in another historical parallel: in 1968, Soviet and Warsaw Pact troops suppressed the Prague Spring but eventually the locals’ desire for emancipation won the day. Put bluntly, occupying Ukraine today means severing that country’s umbilical cord with Russia in perpetuity, hardly the legacy Putin desires to leave behind.

Tougher Western sanctions will also drive up costs for Russia. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s decision to put the Nord Stream 2 pipeline on hold, long a shibboleth for German politicians of all stripes, is a harbinger of things to come in case of an all-out war. The Biden administration is turning up the heat on Moscow, too, unveiling a first round of sanctions on February 22. The UK is following suit.

Sure enough, the Russian economy has previously shown resilience and weathered the storm. But growing isolation will not improve the livelihood of ordinary Russians as discontent is mounting.

The televised (or rather recorded) session of Russia’s Security Council on February 21 showed Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, a technocrat charged with reforming institutions and revitalising the economy, visibly uncomfortable with the turn Russian foreign policy was about to take. But neither he, nor other members of Putin’s entourage less enthusiastic about this turn of events – like the Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu or foreign intelligence head Sergei Naryshkin, dared stand up to the boss.

Russia, Ukraine and – let us not fool ourselves – the whole of Europe are facing dark days ahead. There will be no winners, only losers, if guns start shooting and the tanks roll in.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
J.K. Rowling Limits Public Engagements Citing Safety Fears
JD.com Launches €2.2 Billion Bid for German Electronics Retailer Ceconomy
Azerbaijan Proceeds with Plan to Legalise Casinos on Artificial Islands
Former Judge Charged After Drunk Driving Crash Kills Comedian in Brazil
Jeff Bezos hasn’t paid a dollar in taxes for decades. He makes billions and pays $0 in taxes, LEGALLY
China Increases Use of Exit Bans Amid Rising U.S. Tensions
IMF Upgrades Global Growth Forecast as Weaker Dollar Supports Outlook
Procter & Gamble to Raise U.S. Prices to Offset One‑Billion‑Dollar Tariff Cost
House Republicans Move to Defund OECD Over Global Tax Dispute
Botswana Seeks Controlling Stake in De Beers as Anglo American Prepares Exit
Trump Administration Proposes Repeal of Obama‑Era Endangerment Finding, Dismantling Regulatory Basis for CO₂ Emissions Limits
France Opens Criminal Investigation into X Over Algorithm Manipulation Allegations
A family has been arrested in the UK for displaying the British flag
Mel Gibson refuses to work with Robert De Niro, saying, "Keep that woke clown away from me."
Trump Steamrolls EU in Landmark Trade Win: US–EU Trade Deal Imposes 15% Tariff on European Imports
ChatGPT CEO Sam Altman says people share personal info with ChatGPT but don’t know chats can be used as court evidence in legal cases.
The British propaganda channel BBC News lies again.
Deputy attorney general's second day of meeting with Ghislaine Maxwell has concluded
Controversial March in Switzerland Features Men Dressed in Nazi Uniforms
Politics is a good business: Barack Obama’s Reported Net Worth Growth, 1990–2025
Thai Civilian Death Toll Rises to 12 in Cambodian Cross-Border Attacks
TSUNAMI: Trump Just Crossed the Rubicon—And There’s No Turning Back
Over 120 Criminal Cases Dismissed in Boston Amid Public Defender Shortage
UN's Top Court Declares Environmental Protection a Legal Obligation Under International Law
"Crazy Thing": OpenAI's Sam Altman Warns Of AI Voice Fraud Crisis In Banking
The Podcaster Who Accidentally Revealed He Earns Over $10 Million a Year
Trump Announces $550 Billion Japanese Investment and New Trade Agreements with Indonesia and the Philippines
US Treasury Secretary Calls for Institutional Review of Federal Reserve Amid AI‑Driven Growth Expectations
UK Government Considers Dropping Demand for Apple Encryption Backdoor
Severe Flooding in South Korea Claims Lives Amid Ongoing Rescue Operations
Japanese Man Discovers Family Connection Through DNA Testing After Decades of Separation
Russia Signals Openness to Ukraine Peace Talks Amid Escalating Drone Warfare
Switzerland Implements Ban on Mammography Screening
Japanese Prime Minister Vows to Stay After Coalition Loses Upper House Majority
Pogacar Extends Dominance with Stage Fifteen Triumph at Tour de France
CEO Resigns Amid Controversy Over Relationship with HR Executive
Man Dies After Being Pulled Into MRI Machine Due to Metal Chain in New York Clinic
NVIDIA Achieves $4 Trillion Valuation Amid AI Demand
US Revokes Visas of Brazilian Corrupted Judges Amid Fake Bolsonaro Investigation
U.S. Congress Approves Rescissions Act Cutting Federal Funding for NPR and PBS
North Korea Restricts Foreign Tourist Access to New Seaside Resort
Brazil's Supreme Court Imposes Radical Restrictions on Former President Bolsonaro
Centrist Criticism of von der Leyen Resurfaces as she Survives EU Confidence Vote
Judge Criticizes DOJ Over Secrecy in Dropping Charges Against Gang Leader
Apple Closes $16.5 Billion Tax Dispute With Ireland
Von der Leyen Faces Setback Over €2 Trillion EU Budget Proposal
UK and Germany Collaborate on Global Military Equipment Sales
Trump Plans Over 10% Tariffs on African and Caribbean Nations
Flying Taxi CEO Reclaims Billionaire Status After Stock Surge
Epstein Files Deepen Republican Party Divide
×